Co-authors: Rasha Alsakka and Noemi Mantovan
Publication Status: Published in Journal of Rural Studies (2025), Volume 118 | Scopus: Q1, 5-year IF: 6.1, ABS-3
Abstract: Using a difference-in-differences model, we find a significant 1.2% (4.8%) quarterly (annual) lending contraction to Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs) in the UK following the Brexit vote compared to similar European countries. This impact persisted in several quarters, particularly during key Brexit milestones, reflecting the prolonged uncertainty induced by Brexit. Within-country analysis, using postcode-level data, reveals severe loan contractions in rural and peripheral areas, as well as in regions with high EU export proportions, highlighting regional disparities in Brexit's impact on SME lending. Our findings emphasize the importance of economic geography and the role of local conditions in shaping access to finance during shocks. These results call for regionally tailored policies that specifically address the resilience and financial challenges faced by SMEs in rural and peripheral regions, to foster economic recovery across the UK in the post-Brexit era. Our research contributes to the literature on regional resilience and finance, with implications for policymakers aiming to mitigate the unequal impacts of economic shocks.
Co-authors: Rasha Alsakka and Noemi Mantovan
Publication Status: Submitted to Journal of Money, Credit and Banking | Scopus: Q1, ABS-4
Abstract: This study explores the impact of populism on loan markets at the provincial level in Italy, employing monthly loan data from two recent elections and a difference-in-differences model with two-way fixed effects. Findings reveal a significant decline in loan activity in provinces that experienced an increase in the power of far-right populist parties, with monthly contractions in total economic sectors’ loans of 0.190 (0.096) and 0.268 percentage points, equivalent to 2.28% (1.15%) and 3.21% annually, in provinces affiliated with The League and Fratelli d'Italia, respectively, following the 2022 (2018) election. These provinces exhibited a similar decline in total resident sectors’ loans in 2022. The effects are more pronounced for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises, construction and services sectors. In contrast, the support for Five Star Movement left-wing populist party does not seem to have a clear impact. We add new evidence on the populism’s effects on credit markets at a sub-national level and highlight the need for tailored policy responses to address the economic challenges posed by populist shifts.
Co-authors: Binru Zhao, He He, Ajan Orujov
Publication Status: Submitted to Regional Studies | Scopus: Q1, ABS-4
Funding: British Academy/Leverhulme Research Grant
Abstract: We examine the impact of local bank branch closures on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the UK. Our findings indicate that changes in local bank branch coverage are positively associated with the profitability performance. This relationship remains robust when using the historical number of bank branches as an instrument for local branch coverage. Our results find that the impact on SME performance is more pronounced in rural areas, particularly in peripheral rural regions. Moreover, greater (less) branch coverage is linked to higher (lower) SME lending in the local economy and increased (reduced) cash usage. Overall, our study highlights the critical role of bank branches in facilitating SME access to cash and credit, contributing to the ongoing debate on bank branch closures and digital transformation in the UK banking sector.
Co-authors: Edward Jones
Publication Status: Policy Implementation Project (Completed)
Funding: Bangor University "25% by 2025" Sustainability Program
Abstract: This research project evaluates the carbon footprint associated with the use of search engines and proposes strategies to mitigate environmental impact. The project was funded under Bangor University's "25% by 2025" program, a central part of the university's Sustainability Strategy aimed at reducing carbon emissions. As a result of this research, the university adopted Ecosia, an eco-friendly search engine, as its default in November 2024. Read more | Management Proposal