Research
Research
Firm survival during the Covid-19 pandemic (with Sabine D'Costa), under review at Small Business Economices
We investigate whether pre-pandemic adoption of digital technologies helped small and medium enterprises (SME) survive during the pandemic, and whether this effect differs between urban and rural areas. The pandemic increased the reliance on digital tools, and as personal contact was restricted, led to expectations of the decline of cities. We combine the Longitudinal Small Business Survey with the Business Structure Database to build a panel of British SMEs from 2015 to 2022. Survival models show that use of different digital technologies increased survival, but the effect is concentrated in urban areas. In urban areas, this effect is comparable in size to that of government Covid subsidies, while in rural areas subsidies are significantly more effective at reducing business exit. In urban areas, increased survival from expanding SME’s digitalisation would increase aggregate productivity, while in rural areas, digitalisation would help the least productive firms survive. The results show that the benefits of digitalisation are not evenly spread among SMEs and policy responses to crises should take these urban-rural differences into account.
Labour shares and industry concentration: A regional analysis of Great Britain
Falling labour shares are a concern for economists in many developed and emerging economies around the world. This trend has been linked to growing industry concentration, as growing market power allows firms to charge mark-ups over marginal cost. I show that both of these trends also characterise the economy in Great Britain over the last two decades. Moreover, businesses that are dominant in their industry are predominantly located in London and the South East, as well as other urban areas. I estimate that the labour share would be around 1 percentage point higher in 2014, had industry concentration not increased since 2002 The difference is larger in urban than in predominantly rural areas.
Spatial inequality of technological production and complex knowledge in the United States (with Shengjun Zhu, Yongyuan Huang and Canfei He), R&R at Economic Geography
This paper seeks to provide a new mechanism for explaining growing spatial inequality, using US patent data. Our main hypothesis is that the development of one patent class in a place is dependent on the pre-existence of related patent classes. Knowledge production is thus interdependent. Furthermore, our results show that the production of complex knowledge is more interdependent, and the development of complex patents demands the pre-existence of more related ones. Given complex knowledge’s strong tendency of interdependence, we further hypothesize that complex knowledge tends to be more geographically sticky, and spatial inequality is likely to persist and even deteriorate. Our research confirms this hypothesis. When we look at the long history of knowledge production in the US, we find that the interdependence tendency of complex knowledge has been enhanced, especially after two waves of the industrial revolution, a period where plenty of new and more complex technologies mushroomed. This has generated a strong centripetal force that slowed down the diffusion of complex knowledge, resulting in deteriorating spatial inequality.
Mission versus Diffusion: How organisational structure shapes innovation intermediaries' support for novel research and economic growth (with Chloe Billing, Magda Cepeda Zorilla, Simon Collinson and Fumi Kitagawa)
Improving the translation of scientific research into marketable products and services is an important source for increased growth and productivity. As a critical policy tool, innovation intermediaries can facilitate and accelerate the transfer of knowledge from academia to industry, leading to economic benefits. However, little is known about how the organisational structures of innovation intermediaries affect the types of research and innovation they support. The goal of the paper is to improve our understanding of how innovation intermediaries contribute to technological progress and economic growth. The paper considers a case study of two innovation intermediaries in the manufacturing industry. Using data on publicly funded innovation projects, conventionality scores are calculated to test for significant differences in the conventionality or novelty of industry collaborations supported by the intermediaries and results are triangulated through semi-structured interviews. The paper finds that the university-based intermediary supports more unconventional consortia, consistent with a mission-oriented approach, while the intermediary operating as a company supports more conventional consortia, consistent with a technology-diffusion approach. These findings indicate policymakers should strategically design the organisational structure of innovation intermediaries to align with the particular objectives and needs of the local innovation ecosystem.
Labour market dynamics, knowledge diffusion and productivity (with Maria Savona)
Technological invention and local labour markets: Evidence from France, Germany and the UK, 2024, Research Policy, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2024.105021. Covered by Research Professional.
Corruption and Firm Growth: Evidence from around the World, 2024, with Raymond Fisman, Sergei Guriev and Alexander Plekhanov, The Economic Journal, https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/uead100. Working paper: https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3828225
Gathering round Big Tech: how the market for acquisitions concentrates the digital sector, 2024, with Maryann Feldman, Frederick Guy, \& Simona Iammarino, Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsae003
It’s not me, it’s you: internal migration and local wages in Great Britain, 2023, Regional Studies, Regional Science, 10(1), 876-888, https://doi.org/10.1080/21681376.2023.2276216
The Impact of University STEM assets: A Systematic Review of the Empirical Evidence, with Chloe Billing, George Bramley, Robert Lynam, Magda Cepeda-Zorrilla, Simon Collinson, Kelvin Humphreys, Konstantinos Kollydas, Fengjie Pan, Alice Pugh, Deniz Sevinc, and Pei-Yu Yuan, PloSOne, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0287005
The Geography of Innovation and Development: Global Spread and Local Hotspots
with Riccardor Crescenzi, Simona Iammarino, Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, and Michael Storper
Geography and Environment Discussion Paper No. 4
The Geography of Innovation: Local Hotspots and Global Innovation Networks
with Riccardor Crescenzi, Simona Iammarino, Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, and Michael Storper
Commissioned by the World Intellectual Property Organization
WIPO Economic Research Working Paper No. 57
A summary of the findings can be found on the OECD's Development Matters blog
World Intellectual Property Report 2019
with Riccardo Crescenzi, Simona Iammarino, Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, and Michael Storper
Chapter 1
World Intellectual Property Organization, Geneva, CH
Transition Report 2019-20: Better Governance, Better Economies
with Raymond Fisman, Tea Gamtkitsulashvili, Sergei Guriev, and Alexander Plekhanov
Chapter 1: The governance dividend
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, London, UK
In my previous role as analyst at Belmana Ltd, I contributed to various policy evaluations and other pieces of research for UK government departments. These can be found here (as Carolin Thol).
Regional Studies Association annual conference, Porto, May
Workshop on firm productivity and exit during economic crises, University of Westminster, May
'Oxford in Varese' residential research week for entrepreneurship scholars, June
European Regional Science Association conference, Athens, August
The Productivity Institute annual conference, Manchester, September
Geography of Innovation conference, Manchester, January
RSAI-BIS conference, Bristol, July, invited early career keynote speaker
POLISS seminar, online, May
RSAI-BIS conference, Newcastle, July
14th Geoffrey J.D. Hewings Workshop in Regional Economics, Vienna, October (invited, unable to attend)
Regional Studies Association Winter Conference, London, November
City-REDI Research Symposium
Global Conference on Economic Geography, Dublin, June
Geography of Innovation Conference, Milan, July
Regional Studies Association Winter Conference, London, November
Seminar on Differentiated Approaches to Inclusive, Responsible and Sustainable Innovation, European Commission, December
City-REDI Research Symposium
North American Regional Science Council (NARSC) virtual conference
European Regional Science Association web conference
Seminars in Economic Geography, UCLA and University College Dublin, July and November
LSE Economic Geography Work in Progress seminar, May and October
UCLA Department of Geography seminar
Western Regional Science Association annual conference in Honolulu, Hawaii
Understanding Inequalities Conference, Edinburgh, UK
Regional Studies Association early career conference, Lincoln, UK
FDZ Ruhr Regional Disparity Workshop, Essen, Germany (poster presentation)
European Bank of Reconstruction and Development economics seminar
Regional Studies Association annual conference, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
Royal Geographic Society Postgraduate Forum mid-term conference, Manchester, UK
LSE Economic Geography Work in Progress seminar
Regional Studies Association early career conference, Brighton, UK
Global Conference on Economic Geography, Cologne, Germany
LSE Economic Geography Work in Progress seminar