In my work, I tend to combine causal empirical strategies with fine-grained spatial, administrative, and survey data to answer questions that matter for policy. Across projects, I focus on how exogenous shocks - climate events, criminal activity, institutional reforms - interact with local contexts to produce heterogeneous outcomes.
"The Impact of Police Violence on Migration: Evidence from Venezuela", with Federico Maggio (Journal of Population Economics, 37 (1), 2024)
ABSTRACT: This study unveils the causal effect of authoritative violence on individuals’ likelihood to migrate. Specifically, we examine the migration patterns of Venezuelans during the 2017–2018 political and economic crisis. We draw insights from regional-level data on civilian casualties caused by security forces, along with information extracted from the ENCOVI-2018 survey data that captures migration flows. The estimates rely on travel time from the capital city as an instrumental variable and are robust to the inclusion of several household- and socio-economic regional-level characteristics. The findings strongly suggest that authoritative violence is a significant non-economic push factor for international migration. Moreover, additional evidence indicates that this type of violence influences the skill composition of migrants, especially in the context of South-to-South migration flows.
"Assessing the impact of municipal mergers on local public expenditure dynamics in Italy", with Francesco Scotti, Giovanni Baiocchetti and Alessandra Faggian (Regional Studies, 60 (1), 2026)
ABSTRACT: Ever-changing territorial challenges might require administrative bodies to evolve their boundaries and functions in order to adapt to new conditions. Despite the importance of mergers, the literature on the topic is rather limited and does not provide a clear and comprehensive picture of the effects of municipality mergers for several reasons. Italy is the European country that experienced the lowest number of municipal mergers in recent years, and existing evidence does not provide a complete overview of their impact. We fill this gap by analysing the causal effects of municipal mergers on the local public expenditure dynamics over the period 2016–20. We find that the larger financial capacity was not used to reduce fiscal pressure nor the cost of local services, whereas merged municipalities increased their current expenditures – particularly in education, tourism and transportation – with high geographical heterogeneity.
Drought, mafia, and migration. Evidence from Italy, with Luca Buzzanca. R&R at the Journal of Population Economics.
NextGenerationEU landing: Assessing the territorial allocation of Italy’s Recovery and Resilience Facility funding, with Francesco Scotti and Davide Luca. Under review at the Journal of Regional Science.
Lunardon D and Caporali C (2024), Polycentric Urban Regions in Italy. A Novel Assessment in Conflict Scenarios and Transitions: Opportunities and Risks for Regions and Territories (pp. 99-119), edited by Modica M and Piacentino D, Franco Angeli Editore. ISBN: 9788835166535.
Compagnucci F, Faggian A, Caporali C (2024), Traiettorie Evolutive nelle Aree Interne a Dieci Anni dalla SNAI in Le Disparita e le Politiche Territoriali in Italia, edited by Viesti G, Carrocci Editore.
Faggian A & Caporali C (2024), Resilience Analysis in The World of Regional Science - A Thematic Encyclopedia of Regional Science, edited by Nijkamp P, Kourtit K, Haynes K & Elburz Z, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.
Faggian A, Caporali C, Zampollo C, Graduate Mobility and Job-Mismatch: State-of-the-Art and Future Challenges. In Handbook of Labour Mobility: Regional, national and global perspectives, edited by Eriksson R and Kalsø H, Edward Elgar Publisher. Forthcoming.
Caporali C & Faggian A, Towards a Regional Glocalization. In Essays on Global Regionalism, edited by Acharya, De Lombaerde, Futak-Campbell, Iroulo, Peixoto Batista, UNU-CRIS (Institute on Comparative Regional Integration Studies). Forthcoming.
Scotti, F., Caporali, C., Luca, D. (2026). Assessing the Territorial Allocation of Italy’s Recovery and Resilience Funds. London School of Economics - Europe in Question Discussion Paper, No. 193. Available at: https://www.lse.ac.uk/asset-library/eiqpaper193.pdf
Caporali C, Crudu F, Detotto C (2024) Terror and Turnout: Impact of Terrorism During the Years of Lead. CRENoS Working Papers, ISBN: 9788868515621. Available at: https://crenos.unica.it/crenos/publications/terror-and-turnout-impact-terrorism-during-years-lead.
Caporali C, Scotti F, Baiocchetti G, Faggian A (2025) Assessing the impact of municipal mergers on local public expenditure dynamics in Italy. GSSI Discussion Paper Series, ISSN 2724-3680. Available at: https://www.gssi.it/images/discussion%20papers%20rseg/2025/DPRSEG_2025-02.pdf.
Caporali, C. (2023). Essay on local violence. Available at: https://iris.gssi.it/handle/20.500.12571/29924.
Abstract. As in the case of other place-specific social phenomena, violence makes no exceptions when it comes to the investigation of common patterns, including both its origins and outcomes. One immediate consequence of this fundamental premise is that finding unanimous consensus within the academic literature can be a challenging task, with only a few exceptions when it comes to overarching theoretical frameworks. This thesis represents a dedicated effort to enhance our understanding of violence through the adoption of a localized and specific perspective. From a geographical standpoint, this thesis delves into the intricacies of violence and recognizes that the causes, manifestations, and consequences of violence are often deeply rooted in the unique historical, cultural, and social contexts of a given region. By zooming in on these local nuances, we can gain a richer and more comprehensive understanding of the complex tapestry of violence. Moreover, the thesis acknowledges the inherent diversity within violence itself. It is not a monolithic phenomenon but rather a multifaceted one, encompassing various forms such as interpersonal violence, structural violence, political violence, and more. Each of these forms carries distinct characteristics, motives, and implications. They affect individuals differently, depending on their socioeconomic status, gender, ethnicity, and other factors. Moreover, these forms of violence can have varying impacts on different communities and societies, perpetuating cycles of inequality and conflict in unique ways. This effort is built upon two key theoretical pillars. The first pillar posits that different stimuli produce different outcomes, influenced by personal and environmental characteristics, necessitating the discrimination of various stimuli. The second pillar highlights the significance of understanding violence as a place-based and place-specific phenomenon. From this perspective, while connected to larger processes of material transformation and power relations, urges the need to interpret violence and its spatiality as a site-specific phenomenon rooted in local histories and societies. The thesis consists of a collection of three papers. In the first one, I explore the causal link between police-perpetrated homicides and migration during the Venezuelan crisis (2017-2018), revealing heterogeneous effects across age, gender, and education levels of migrants. The second paper delves into the relationship between terrorism and electoral participation, dissecting the Anni di Piombo era in Italy by analyzing provincial-level exposure to terrorism and its influence on voting behavior at national elections spanning from 1972 to 1992. We weigh the mediated effects of terrorist violence, considering casualties and physical damage, by applying the Causal Mediation Analysis framework. Lastly, leveraging exclusive data on intimate partner femicides in Italian metropolitan areas from 2012 to 2020 geo-located at a street-level granularity, in the third paper I map their distribution, highlighting ecological factors correlated with an increased probability of observing femicides. Together with a theoretical introduction aimed at disentangling the multifaceted nature of violence, these papers provide comprehensive insights into migration dynamics, political violence, and gender-based violence, contributing valuable knowledge to the understanding of these nuanced social issues.
APPLICATE - Assessing Public Policy effectiveness in minimizing Local Impacts with Climate-related Adaptation Expenditures
The project proposes a research design based on ex post quantitative analyses to address the multiple channels through which changes in climatic conditions and the related increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events might impact socio-economic systems at the local scale.
Space It Up – Strengthening the Italian Space Ecosystem through Research and Innovation
The project, led by the Italian Space Agency (ASI) is structured into nine research areas, ranging from the development of enabling technologies for new Earth observation and planetary exploration missions, to the design of digital twins for space systems, and research on extraterrestrial habitats and the sustainability of human activities in space. Among the main objectives are promoting a sustainable future through innovative space technologies, strengthening Italy’s ability to compete internationally in the space sector, and creating a stronger, more competitive national space ecosystem.