Our team uses various simulations models to reveal the potential impacts of climate change on water resources, flood and drought risks. These models are generally deployed at large-scales, global or continental, and operate on Linux server. Occasionally, field or watershed scale models are additionally employ to either improve a specific calculation scheme of the larger models or to contrast the performance and data requirement of models across scales.
Owing to the large data requirement of global models, the development of database is also a priority. For example, knowing the locations and characteristics of levees is crucial for adequately evaluate the exposure of the global population to flooding. Accordingly, our group is currently working on identifying such features.
At the global scale, flood risk is anticipated to increase, driven by climate change and socioeconomic development. Current and future flood impact assessments rely heavily on models, hence the importance of understanding where the main sources of uncertainties stem from.
Fig: Global inventory of flood protections (levees).
Droughts have long been a scourge of humanity, causing famine and may have been a factor in recent war and conflicts (Grayson, 2013). Nowadays they affect more people than other climatic extreme (Wilhite, 2000). In the US alone, economic damages caused by droughts were estimated to cost between 6 and 8 billion dollar annually (FEMA, 1995).
Droughts are projected to intensify under climate change in many part of the world (Takeshima et al., 2020) but are difficult to fully characterize owing to unique features and the necessity to integrate multiple dimensions severity, duration).
Fig: Standardized Precipitation Deficit (SPI) calculated for 1. 3. and 6 months duration at Fuchu. The red horizontal line denotes SPI=-1.50 which is commonly interpreted as a "severe drought".