Peer-Reviewed Publications

Non-Random Exposure to Exogenous Shocks (with Peter Hull)

Econometrica, 91(6), 2023, p.2155-2185 | Ungated version

Access the longer working paper version here for the appendices covering various extensions (titled "Non-Random Exposure to Exogenous Shocks: Theory and Applications", updated Dec 2021)

Video recording from the online Chamberlain seminar | Twitter thread | Replication package

Key takeaways: 

Stata commands available via ssc install or from the Github archive:

A basic R command is available from Kyle Butts here.

Twitter thread | Presentation video

This new draft supersedes the 2017 version with Xavier Jaravel.

Quasi-Experimental Shift-Share Research Designs (with Peter Hull and Xavier Jaravel)

Review of Economic Studies, 89(1), 2022, p. 181-213

Key takeaways: 

Twitter thread  |  Slides on shift-share IV methods broadly

Stata command: ssaggregate, available from ssc
R command: ssaggregate (by Kyle F. Butts)

Replication archive:

Design-Based Identification with Formula Instruments: A Review (with Peter Hull and Xavier Jaravel, October 2023, Forthcoming at the Econometrics Journal

We review the econometric insights from the recent literature on design-based identification with formula instruments, such as linear and nonlinear shift-share instruments.

Negative Weights are No Concern in Design-Based Specifications (with Peter Hull

Forthcoming at AEA Papers & Proceedings) 

Shows the key role of design-based specifications (which control for the expectation of the treatment or instrument) not only to avoid OVB but also to avoid sign reversals due to negative weights

Working Papers

Are Trade Wars Class Wars? The Importance of Trade-Induced Horizontal Inequality (with Xavier Jaravel, April 2023, IFS Working Paper 22/34, Conditionally accepted at Journal of International Economics

Key takeaways:

This paper supersedes one part of our draft "The Distributional Effects of Trade: Theory and Evidence from the United States", which concerns the labor market effects of trade in general equilibrium.

Key takeaways:  

NBER Working Paper 28957:

Media coverage: New York Times (2018), New York Times (2019), Deutsche Welle, Les Echos

Twitter thread | Our older 2018 draft

[Presentation video from the NBER ITI meeting (60 min)]

Regressions of local population changes on exogenous local labor demand shocks may reveal little about the local responsiveness of internal migration to those shocks.

(Based on the material previously included in our working paper "Non-Random Exposure to Exogenous Shocks: Theory and Applications")

Work in Progress

Design-Based Estimation of Structural Parameters, with an Application to Demand (with Peter Hull)

Regression Discontinuity Aggregation, with an Application to the Union Effects on Inequality (with Matan Kolerman-Shemer)

Projections on Observables in Two-Way Fixed Effect Models with Limited Mobility (with Martin Weidner)