BMP is a standard baseball statistic in the same category as batting average, slugging percentage, and on-base-percentage. It is a simple measure of productivity that is intended for the average baseball fan. The goal is to have BMP adopted by Major League Baseball and potentially replace OPS as a standard statistic which will be discussed in this section.
BMP is not a Sabermetric statistic like WAR and does not compete with Sabermetrics. WAR and other Sabermetric stats are extremely sophisticated calculations with weighting factors that are designed to enable MLB teams and baseball experts to effectively evaluate baseball players. These are valuable tools for professional baseball.
OTHER BASEBALL STATISTICS
Currently, the baseball world is loaded with several forms of statistics that need to be sorted through to understand the actual effectiveness of a batter or a pitcher. Statistics for batters include batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage, batting average with runners in scoring position, runs batted in, and OPS. Each of these statistics focus on a certain aspect of a player’s effectiveness.
Batting average is the traditional method of rating a hitter's performance. It is a good indicator of a batter's ability to get a hit. Batting average is essentially a hits vs. outs ratio equal to hits divided by at-bats. Since there was some debate over what counts as an at-bat, the early baseball statisticians decided that the fairest thing to do was to subtract sacrifices, walks, and hit-by-pitch from the total plate appearances and create what is forevermore known as “at-bats”. We all need to remind ourselves that at-bats is not really the number of times a hitter was at the plate and that plate appearances is the true number of "at bats".
With batting average originally established as the dominant batting statistic, baseball enthusiasts needed more statistics to deal with other batting skills. Why shouldn't a batter get more credit for an extra base hit? What about getting credit for walks? Credit for extra base hits was easy to solve with the advent of slugging percentage. Simply divide total bases by at-bats. On-base percentage gave batters credit for walks in addition to hits. As time went by, more statistics continued to be created to rate a batter's production under certain conditions. One of these statistics is the batting average with runners in scoring position. The number of hits divided by at-bats only when runners are on second or third base is thought to be a measure of a hitter's effectiveness in critical situations. The multiplicity of statistics does add to the fun of the game. Players can compete for "crowns" in several categories and the race for these crowns does add interest.
With today's computers and databases, almost any statistic can be calculated. The introduction of Sabermetrics created many specific statistics that were developed to help teams make decisions on which players to acquire. These statistics are highly useful to MLB teams but are not typically relevant to the average fan.
Although the multiple statistics are valid and useful, there is still a desire to have one single statistic that measures the overall productivity of a baseball player. However, comparison between players remains difficult. An observer must take into account all statistics to come up with an accurate gauge of a player’s performance. There is much disagreement over which capabilities are more important.
Some time ago baseball added a batting statistic called OPS. This is simply equal to slugging percentage (SLG) plus on-base percentage (OBP). This was a simple attempt to create an overall performance rating by combining slugging percentage and on-base percentage. OPS stands for On-base Plus Slugging. OPS is relatable to the average baseball fan and has been fully adopted by Major League Baseball. Television broadcasts often show OPS along with other statistics when a batter comes to the plate.
The formula for OPS is : OPS = SLG + OBP
Specifically: OPS = Total Bases / AB + (Hits + Walks + HPB) / (AB + Walks + HBP + SF)
This allows relative comparisons between hitters but there are issues with how OPS is calculated. It is simply the crude addition of two fractions with different denominators. First of all, everyone knows you are not supposed to add mixed fractions. OPS assigns equal value to slugging percentage and on-base-percentage in an attempt to give equal weighting to sluggers and high average hitters. However, there is clearly overlap between slugging percentage and on-base percentage because hits are essentially counted in both numerators. Baseball fans can relate to OPS as a measure of productivity, but highly informed fans know that OPS is a rather sloppily derived statistic. Furthermore, OPS fails to account for steals, sacrifices, and hitting with runners on base. The creation of OPS demonstrates the desire for a single batting statistic but OPS itself falls short of the mark.
Recently we have seen the rise of the WAR (Wins above Replacement) statistic. This further demonstrates the desire of the baseball community for a single statistic. WAR is a simple statistic on the surface but it is an incredibly complex calculation developed by statisticians. The premise of WAR is to determine how many wins a player is worth when compared to a typical replacement player. WAR focuses on how many runs a player generates and translates that into the number of additional wins a player is worth. It can be applied to hitters and pitchers although the formula is different for each of these. WAR accounts for all aspects of the game including batting, running, and defense. It also adjusts for position, ballpark, and league. With WAR, players can be reasonably compared and the player with the highest wins above replacement could be considered better or more valuable. WAR is the product of massive statistical analysis and has much merit. It is quite useful for teams to evaluate players.
The main problem with WAR is that it is not intuitive to the average baseball fan and struggles to gain acceptance because it is far too complex and requires fans to accept that the statisticians have calculated it accurately. This is probably why WAR is not displayed on television broadcasts when a batter steps up to the plate. Furthermore, although WAR is based on detailed statistical analysis, the data going into the calculations is weighted. Different weightings are assigned to player positions and ball parks in an effort to level the playing field. Therefore, some players appear to be penalized for hitting in a hitter-friendly ball park or playing a position that has a lot of power hitters. Although WAR is a very good tool, it is not relatable to the average fan. Even baseball experts don’t agree that WAR is the single statistic to identify the best player. Players with the highest WAR can certainly make a good case but are not necessarily selected as the league MVP.
Pitching statistics are even more misleading than hitting statistics. Most of us have questioned the win-loss percentage. Everyone knows that a poor pitcher can have a great win-loss percentage if his team scores a lot of runs. A pitcher has absolutely no control of his team's hitting and the win-loss percentage is a poor indicator of pitcher effectiveness. In general, good pitchers will have a good win-loss percentage and poor pitchers will have a low win-loss percentage, but it is clearly the weakest indicator of a pitcher's skill.
Another statistic is opponent’s batting average against a pitcher. This is a reasonable statistic, yet it does not cover walks, sacrifices, and extra base hits. WHIP is a telling statistic that calculates hits and walks per inning pitched but does not account for extra base hits. On-base-percentage and OPS against a pitcher can be calculated as well but these have the same issues as a batter’s version. Earned Run Average (ERA) is one of the most telling statistics of how well a pitcher is limiting runs (which is the bottom line) but it also becomes misleading when applied to relief pitchers. Their Earned Run Averages appear to be low because the runs they allow to score are often charged to the previous pitcher. Baseball fans would like a single statistic that can summarize and allow comparisons to any pitcher’s performance.
IMPLEMENTATION OF BMP
Baseball statistics are utilized during a baseball game and are available on sports websites.
The two statistics that currently attempt to capture a player’s overall performance are OPS and WAR.
Now, WAR is a very valid statistic that can be used to help determine a player’s overall performance and value to the team. It can legitimately be used for determining MVP awards. WAR does a good job of measuring a player’s performance with respect to wins. However, as mentioned earlier, baseball fans just can’t relate to WAR due to its complex formulas and weighting factors. This is why WAR is available on sports websites but not displayed on the television screen when a batter steps up to the plate.
For many years televised baseball games would show average, home runs, and RBIs when a batter came to the plate. In recent years, television often shows OPS in addition to the standard statistics. As discussed earlier, OPS represents that fans desire to see an overall player performance statistic. It’s a decent indicator of production but knowledgeable fans know that OPS is simply a crude attempt to capture overall performance. By coincidence, OPS and BMP are often very similar numbers but they have a very different basis. Remember that BMP directly measures a player’s production by bases moved and OPS is not a measurement but a sum of two mismatched fractions.
BMP would be a perfect substitute for OPS. Baseball fans will love and understand BMP!
Although BMP is a truly fundamental statistic, it cannot be derived from standard baseball statistics. In order to calculate BMP, analysis of score cards for each game would need to be completed because this is the only place runner’s positions would be recorded. Computer archives of this data are available to accomplish this task. If MLB adopted BMP in the future, this data would be incorporated into standard statistics.
Basically, BMP is a revolutionary new way of measuring a very old fundamental concept: move the runners along. That’s all there is to it. It seems likely that the typical baseball fan would appreciate the concept of BMP although there may be disagreement over the specific rules assigned. Let the debate begin!