Analyze Batters

STEROID ERA SLUGGERS

The big 3 steroid era sluggers are Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, and Sammy Sosa. McGwire and Sosa battled for the home run record in 1998 and were both eclipsed by Barry Bonds with a record setting year in 2001. Barry Bonds sits at the top of this list with huge performances in 2001, 2002, and 2004.  As expected, Bonds has the highest BMP of this group with 1.267 BMP in 2001. This means he accounted for 1.267 bases moved every time he stepped up to the plate.  It’s that simple.

His 1.267 BMP breaks down into the following components:  BBMc = .886   BRBM = .370   RBM=.011

Looking at the BMP distribution, we can see that 69.9% of his bases moved came from bases moved as a batter (BBM), 29.3% from base runner’s base movement (BRBM), and only 0.8% from his own baserunning (RBM). 

It will become apparent from this analysis that BMP distribution as well as the magnitude of the BMP components are both factors in understanding the BMP rating.  We will learn that ~70% BBM distribution is very high.  This means that Bonds essentially got the lion’s share of his BMP from his own bases moved and not so much from moving runners already on base.  Basically, Bond’s got a ton of solo home runs, hits, and walks without moving a lot runners on base. The BMP distribution and components will be significant as we evaluate and compare other batters in the coming sections.  We will find that the BRBMc is the key component of BMP which is not effectively covered by SLG, OBP, and OPS statistics.

Barry Bond’s BMP for 2001 is his best and is slightly higher than his 2004 BMP (1.267 vs 1.263).  He had a slightly higher BBMc component in 2001(.886 vs .867) and a slightly higher BRBM component in 2004 (.391 vs .370) which basically offset each other.  Although RBM components were both low, it was the higher RBM in 2001 (.011 vs .005) that resulted in a higher BMP in 2001.   There was no significant difference in BMP distribution for Barry Bonds over the three years analyzed above.

Here we can begin to understand the differences between BMP, OPS, and WAR.  Bonds had his highest OPS in 2004 at 1.422 which is recognized as the highest OPS in MLB history.  This is largely driven by the incredibly high OBP (.609) in 2004.  Basically, with OPS being a 50/50 split between SLG and OBP, we can see that his incredible number of walks in 2004 outweighed the incredible number of home runs in 2001. BMP and OPS do not agree on the best year.   Digging in further, one realizes that OPS is closely aligned with the BBMc component of BMP and does not address the movement of runners on base (BRBMc) or the batter’s baserunning production (RBMc). For this reason, BMP is a more complete valuation of a batter’s production than OPS.  Note that WAR is aligned with BMP also rating 2001 as Bond’s best year but the average baseball fan has no idea how this number was derived.

Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa also achieved a BMP better than 1.000 which is excellent.  McGwire wins the contest in 1998 for BMP, OPS, and WAR.  Although they both had similar averages, home runs, and RBIs, McGwire simply moved more bases due to a higher number of extra base hits as well as walks.  Note that Sosa had a higher percentage of BRBM (34.7%) than McGwire meaning that he was effective with runners on base.  Although Sosa had a higher BRBMc (.364 vs .323), the sheer magnitude of the BBMc for McGwire (.800 vs .677) was much larger resulting in a higher overall BMP.

Using BMP, we can conclude that Barry Bond’s had the most productive year of this group with a BMP of 1.267 in 2001.  This simply means that he was responsible for 1.264 bases moved for each plate appearance.  There are no arbitrary or statistical weightings with BMP.  His WAR in 2001 was also the highest at 11.9 meaning he was worth 11.9 wins above a replacement player.  His highest OPS was 1.422 in 2004 but that number by itself doesn’t define the production and is only useful in comparing to other batters.

LEGENDARY SLUGGERS

The legendary sluggers of the 1920s and 1930s had some impressive BMPs.  This selected group features Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Hack Wilson, and Jimmie Foxx.  All of these legends hit for high average with high numbers of homeruns and RBIs.  Ruth set home run records in 1920, 1921, and finally in 1927 with 60.   Lou Gehrig and Hack Wilson were RBI machines with Wilson setting the record of 191 in 1930.

Babe Ruth, as always, leads this discussion with 3 stellar seasons to evaluate.  Ruth’s BMP of 1.367 in 1921 is tops in this group.  The sheer magnitude of high average, many home runs, many extra base hits, significant RBIs, and a large number of walks leads to an incredible BMP.  Note that Ruth got over 37% of his TBM from base runner bases moved (BRBM) which indicates that his power hitting was often done with men on base.  This would be expected based on the high number of RBIs that year.  It is also worth noting that Ruth and the other legendary sluggers had negative RBM meaning they were not effective base runners and this actually lowered their BMP. 

Now for a comparison of Ruth’s top 3 years. On the surface, 1921 and 1927 have similar stats and similar BMP distribution but 1921 had a BMP 91 points higher than 1927.  In this case, the 1921 season had higher BBMc (.867 vs .802) and higher BRBM (.514 vs .478) so Ruth was hitting on all cylinders in 1921. 

The 1920 season had the third best BMP for Ruth with a BMP of 1.222.  Although his 1920 SLG and OBP were both higher than 1921, his BMP was 145 points less.  The simple reason was that Ruth’s 1920 overall production was less because he produced less with runners on base than the other two years.  His BRBM distribution was only 31% and the BRBMc was only .387.  This is a clear example of how hitting with runners on base makes a significant difference.

Because Ruth had his highest SLG and OBP in 1920, this generated his highest OPS at 1.379.  Here we can see clear differentiation between OPS and BMP.  Out of the 3 sample seasons, OPS gives Ruth the best numbers in 1920 while BMP gives Ruth the worst numbers in 1920.   This boils down to the fact that BMP accounts for BBMc, BRBMc, and RBMc while OPS only accounts for BBMc.  In fact, OPS doesn’t even derive its number cleanly since it counts hits twice in its calculation.  So, in effect, OPS is an over emphasized BBMc.  Therefore, BMP is a better representation of offensive production than OPS.

Comparing Ruth’s top performance to Bond’s top performance, we see that Ruth’s 1921 season beats Bond’s 2001 season by 100 points.   Although Bond’s has the highest BBMc with an amazing .886 (vs Ruth’s .867), Ruth has a massively higher and BRBMc (.514 vs .370).   Again, confirming the significance of moving runners on base.  

The next 3 legendary batters; Gehrig, Wilson, and Foxx all rivaled Ruth for BMP but fell a bit short.  In 1932 Jimmie Foxx had comparable home runs and RBIs to Ruth in 1921 and almost identical BMP distribution but the magnitude of his BBMc and BRBMc were lower.  This is due to significantly less doubles and walks resulting a much lower (but impressive) BMP of 1.202. 

Hack Wilson had an awesome year in 1930 with 56 home runs as he set the record for RBIs in a season with 191.  Clearly, he produced with runners on base and sure enough his BRBM distribution was actually above 40%.  However, the magnitude of his BBMc and BRBMc were simply lower and the high BRBM distribution was not enough to overcome Ruth with a BMP of 1.228. 

Ironically, it was Lou Gehrig, Ruth’s teammate, who came the closest with his performance in 1927.  His BMP came in at 1.285.  He even beat Ruth’s 1927 BMP of 1.276.  He essentially matched Ruth’s 1921 batting average and RBI numbers while having less home runs and walks.  Although his SLG and OBP were quite a bit lower than Ruth, his significant quantity of doubles along with his 40% BRBM distribution indicates that his power hitting was done with runners on base rewarding him with the 2nd highest BMP measured so far.  It is also worth noting that his BRBMc of .519 is the highest in this analysis.

CLASSIC SLUGGERS

Some record-breaking slugging brought attention to home runs in the 1960s and 1970s.  It started with the classic battle in 1961 between Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris as Maris broke Babe Ruth’s single season home run record.  During this period, we also saw the amazing Hank Aaron break Ruth’s career home record in 1974.

Let’s start with the Maris-Mantle competition in 1961.  These teammates battled for the home record and Maris pulled away setting a new single season home record of 61.  Despite the home runs, Maris was only able to rack up a BMP of .974, surprisingly short of the magic 1.000 number.  This is nowhere near the BMP of the sluggers reviewed so far.  Basically, this was driven by a low batting average of .269 combined with minimal walks resulting in non-stellar OBP.  It is clear that Maris was a one-dimensional batter who hit a lot of home runs and didn’t generate much production with men on base. 

Mickey Mantle, despite hitting less home runs, was clearly more productive than Maris with a BMP of 1.127, primarily driven by a better batting average, SLG, and OBP.  Although they had similar distribution between BBM and BRBM, the magnitude of both these BMP components was higher for Mantle.  Mantle’s BMP of 1.127 had a BBMc component of .741 and a BRPMc component of .373.  For Maris the BMP components were .659 and .315 respectively.  So, in this case Mantle beat Maris with and without runners on base.

Hank Aaron had a long successful career and held the career home run record.  He had one of his best years in 1971 with a BMP of 1.051 without stellar numbers for average, home runs, or RBIs.  However, his overall productivity got him a BMP above 1.000.  This is a good example of all-around play with power adding up.

MODERN ERA SLUGGERS

The home run races have recently heated up again culminating in Aaron Judge finally breaking Roger Maris’ American League home run record with 62 homers in 2022.  Despite the home run record, Judge barely managed to break the 1.000 barrier with a BMP of 1.045.  For comparison, he did beat out Maris for overall production (BMP of 1.045 vs .974).  Judge had a very high BBM distribution of 69% indicating that most of his slugging occurred without men on base.  However, the sheer magnitude of his BBMc and BRBMc were higher than Maris.  

The 2024 season featured the contest between Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani.   Judge improved his 2024 production from 2022 with a BMP of 1.161.  Even with less home runs, his production increased due to a shift towards greater BRBM distribution (from 29% to 34%) which we have learned is often the key to better BMP. Ohtani had a magical season in 2024 as the first person to hit 50 home runs and steal 50 bases.   One would think this might generate a very high BMP.  Ohtani had a lower batting average, less home runs, and less RBIs than Judge and this translates into lower BBMc (.673 vs .746) and a lower BRBMc (.316 vs .401).  The question is could Ohtani’s bases stealing make up the difference?  Ohtani’s RBM distribution was 6.5% resulting in an RBMc component of .068 but this was not enough to make up the difference and Judge won the BMP battle handily 1.161 to 1.057. 

BASE STEALERS

While we are on the topic of base stealing, let’s take a quick look at the greatest base stealer of all time, Rickey Henderson.  In 1982 Henderson stole an incredible number of bases and set the MLB record with 130 steals.  Could a massive number of stolen bases lead to a high BMP?  The answer turns out to be no.  Although Henderson’s RBM distribution was at 10.4%, his low BBMc and abysmal BRBMc could not be overcome resulting in a BMP of only .750.  As we saw with Ohtani, a high RBM definitely adds to overall production but really can’t outweigh BBMc and BRBMc.  This is because RBM generally adds one bases moved at a time where BBM and BRBM can rack up multiple bases moved with every plate appearance.

HIGH AVERAGE HITTERS

Finally, we will look at some high average hitters and see if these high averages can generate significant BMP.  Three of the best hitters of all time are Ted Williams, Joe DiMaggio, and Rogers Hornsby.  Hornsby and Williams hit over .400 with DiMaggio in the .380s.  In addition to high averages, these three players had some decent power and drove in a lot of runs with Hornsby and Williams being triple crown winners.  

Ted Williams tops this group with a BMP of 1.200 driven by a near .800 BBMc due to a higher SLG and OBP.  DiMaggio comes in second on the strength of a high BRBMc distribution of 41.4% and a BRBMc of .489.  Hornsby, although having the highest battering average and a solid BBMc, had a significantly lower BRBMc indicating a lot of good hitting without men on base.    

They all cleared the 1.000 barrier for BMP so high average hitters can challenge the sluggers.  However, we haven’t seen a .400 hitter since Ted Williams in 1941 and the likelihood of high average hitters achieving 1.000 BMP in the future is low.

BMP SUMMARY - BATTERS

After reviewing various types of batters from different eras we found that power hitters lead the way with the best BMPs.  The sheer magnitude of bases moved from home runs, extra base hits, and walks jack up the BMP.  If this is done with men on base, then the bases moved and BMP rise dramatically.