Research
Research
"Sparking knowledge: Early technology adoption, innovation ability and long-run growth", GEP Research Paper 2021/05 [PDF][Replication files]; Media: ECIPE-Podcast; EHS The Long Run Journal of the European Economic Association (forthcoming)
"Trade disruption, industrialisation, and the setting sun of British colonial rule in India", with Roberto Bonfatti, Journal of the European Economic Association (2024): Volume 22, Issue 3 [PDF][Replication files]. Media: E-IR, Ideas for India, Indian Strategic Studies, EEA press release
"The Effect of Recent Technological Change on U.S. Immigration Policy: Evidence from Congressional Roll Call Votes" Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization (2024): Volume 227, 106759 [PDF][Replication files](Codes only, data available on request)]
"The role of human-capital in Artificial Intelligence adoption", with Erik van der Marel Economics Letters (2024): Volume 244, 111949, [PDF][Replication files]. Media: ECIPE Report, Podcast
"The dynamic effects of monsoon rainfall shocks on agricultural yield, wages, and food prices in India", with Matthias S. Hertweck, Scandinavian Journal of Economics (2023): Issue 3, p.616-654 [PDF][Replication files].
"The extension of short-time work schemes during the Great Recession: A story of success?", with Matthias S. Hertweck, Macroeconomic Dynamics 24 (2020): 360-402. [PDF].
"The consequences of a trade collapse: Economics and politics in Weimar Germany", with Giovanni Facchini, CEPR Working Paper DP19383 [WP] Submitted.
Abstract: What are the political consequences of de-globalization? We address this question in the context of Weimar Germany, which experienced a 67% decline in exports between 1928-1932. During this period, the Nazi party vote share increased from 3% to 37%. Using newly digitized data, we show that this surge was not driven by the direct effects of the export decline in manufacturing areas. At the same time, trade shock-induced declines in food prices spread economic hardship to rural hinterlands. We document that this indirect effect and the pro-agriculture policies put forward by the Nazis are instead key to explain their electoral success."Panic politics on the US West Coast", with Nicolas Berman and Jérémy Laurent-Lucchetti, CEPR Working Paper DP17874 [PDF][WP] Submitted
Abstract: This study highlights that even individual incidents of conflict causing negligible damage can have considerable political consequences. Using the distance to the Ellwood bombardment, the only shelling of civilian installations on the US mainland during WW2, we find that in counties nearer the incident support for the right-wing Republican challenger increased in the 1942 California gubernatorial election. The location of the submarine attack along the California coast being random and the absence of observable pre-trends suggests that the estimated effect is causal. Further, there is no corresponding effect observed for the two attacks on non-civilian targets during WW2 (the bombardment of Fort Stevens an the Lookout Air Raids). There is a corresponding effect on presidential, house and senate results. The effect appears to persist for a considerable time even after WW2 ended."The Death of King Coal and the Scars of Deindustrialization", with Valeria Rueda, CEPR Working Paper DP19082 [WP] Submitted. Media: VoxEU
Abstract: This paper investigates the human cost of industrial decline. We focus on the largest contraction of the coal industry in the UK. Using longitudinal data following two cohorts born in 1958 and 1970, we estimate the lifelong effects of being exposed to pit closures during childhood on health and economic outcomes. Those exposed to the shock as children have worse health throughout life, and this effect transmits over generations. They are also raised in less privileged economic conditions and accumulate less wealth as adults. We also uncover that migration is an imperfect mitigation strategy. The longitudinal data structure allows us to account for different trajectories in the effects across locations and cohorts. We also verify that outcomes are identical in levels before the shock. Results are robust to a battery of robustness checks. These findings highlight that in the absence of any support, industrial decline has long-lasting consequences imperfectly mitigated by access to better opportunities. Few people move, and those who do keep a scar.“Collective Memory and National Identity Formation: The Role of Family and the State”, with Joanne Haddad and Lamis Kattan [WP] Submitted
Abstract: State-led repression of minority identities is a well-documented phenomenon, yet its implications for national identity remain understudied. We examine how the Soviet state-induced famine (1932–33) shapes contemporary Ukrainian national identity through vertical (familial) and horizontal (community/state) transmission. Using newly geocoded individual-level data, we find that individuals from high-famine-exposure areas are more likely to identify as Ukrainian. We document that under Soviet rule, family networks preserved identity, while church closures weakened community transmission. After independence, state-led remembrance efforts, revitalized horizontal transmission. Our findings show how repression and remembrance shape identity persistence and reflect the famine’s lasting influence on Ukrainian-Russian relations."Property Rights and Technological Inertia: Evidence from the Electrification of Switzerland", with Jacob Weisdorf, [new draft coming soon]
Abstract: Weak property protection is widely believed to discourage innovation and economic development. We offer an example of the opposing view, presenting evidence that strong property rights suited to existing technologies can obstruct the adoption of superior ones thus impeding economic growth. Our study examines the late 19th-century Swiss transition from traditional waterwheels to hydroelectric power. We use event-study and regression discontinuity designs to provide causal evidence of a regional reversal of fortune in energy production linked to territorial variation in strength of water-usage rights. The main mechanism for the detrimental effect of property rights is that there was a failure to cooperate to modernize energy generation towards more efficient new hydroelectric plants as it required consent from all individual owners. We further demonstrate how some Cantonal law-makers in regions of strong water rights resorted to policies akin to expropriation in order to counter this coordination failure. We document that areas affected by this reforms started to adopt more electricity and recover lost ground. Finally, we establish that the historic regulatory border on private water-usage rights still matters today using geo-coded employment data. Areas historically subject to strong property protection have lower population and manufacturing employment shares, while being more intensive in agriculture. Our findings indicate that strong property protection can have long-term detrimental effects in case where drastic technological changes occur and policy makers do not react to them."Technological change and gender attitudes: Evidence from Switzerland", with Cecilia García Peñalosa and Edoardo Cefala [new draft coming soon]
Abstract: Gender equality and economic growth have historically tended to move together yet identifying causal effects has been difficult. This paper uses data on the support for female suffrage in Switzerland in order to explore the impact of technology adoption on gender norms. We argue that the early adoption of electricity was conducive to local economic development, which in turn led to more egalitarian gender norms. We use data on the 1959 referendum to decide whether or not to give voting rights to women, arguing that voting shares at the municipality level capture men's attitudes to gender equality, i.e. norms. The potential for economic growth is measured by electricity adoption at the end of the 19th century, a local phenomenon in the absence of a national grid. To identify causality, we exploit exogenous variation in the potential to produce electricity, a strategy possible because electricity in Switzerland was mainly generated from waterpower. We find that a doubling of electricity adoption is leading to a 1.0 percentage point increase in the Yes-vote share in support of female voting rights. The likely mechanism for this is that as farmers left their socio-economic environment to work in factories, they were exposed to more liberal political ideas including female suffrage."Forbidden love: The impact of banning interracial marriages", with Jade Ponsard and Roberta Ziparo [presented]
Abstract: The majority of US states enacted anti-miscegenation laws at varying points during the 19th and 20th century. These laws made interracial marriages ``prohibited and void'' making them a cornerstone policy of segregation. Exploiting variations in introduction and coverage we study how these laws shaped family structures and reinforced differences in economic outcomes across racial groups. To do this, we combined information on state-level anti-miscegenation laws with longitudinal data from the US censuses (1850-1940). This dataset allows us to follow more than 30 million men over time. Our preliminary results suggest that the implementation of anti-miscegenation laws changed the composition of marriages and increased out-of-state migration of individuals targeted by the laws, in particular individuals in mixed marriages, but also Black men overall. Moreover, codifying race was a key necessity to enforce interracial marriage bans so that miscegenation laws included the blood purity rules. In line with this, we find that racial identity changes of initially Black individuals, a non-negligible phenomenon, declined when miscegenation laws were introduced. Further preliminary explorations suggest that this also had an impact on keeping an exploitative agricultural economic model in place."Supporting independence: Political connections and import substitution in India" with Roberto Bonfatti and Cyril Thomson [presented]
Abstract: In this paper we document the value of political connections and how they were shaped in a post-colonial setting. We find that profits of firms that had directors connected to the Indian National Congress experience a sudden skyrocketing of profits after Indian independence. One of the main mechanism we explore for this effect is the role of the newly implemented import licensing policy. We further analyze how political connections were shaped by WWI leading to the formation of a new Indian industrial elite that had benefited from the temporary decline in import competition."Swiss folklore: A dataset of historical economic, legal and cultural practices" with Paula Gobbi, Marc Goñi, David Mainus[data collection in progress]
Abstract: We are constructing a detailed historic dataset of more than two hundred economic, legal and cultural practices covering 387 municipalities from across all of Switzerland. One of the most interesting features of our data collection is that it provides detailed information on seasonal migration patterns and trade flows within Switzerland.Podcasts:
The long-term effects of technology on economic growth, ECIPE episode 83, June 2022, hosted by Erik van der Marel
Articles:
Trade, industrialization and support for anti-colonial movements, E-International relations, August 2020, with Roberto Bonfatti
World War I and industrialization in British India, Ideas for India, May 2020, with Roberto Bonfatti
Artificial Intelligence and the Clustering of Human Capital: The Risks for Europe, ECIPE, December 2023, with Frederik Erixon and Erik van der Marel [Blog][Summary][Policy Report]