Research
Research
"Sparking knowledge: Early technology adoption, innovation ability and long-run growth", GEP Research Paper 2021/05 [PDF][Replication files]; Media: ECIPE-Podcast; EHS The Long Run Journal of the European Economic Association (forthcoming)
"Trade disruption, industrialisation, and the setting sun of British colonial rule in India", with Roberto Bonfatti, Journal of the European Economic Association (2024): Volume 22, Issue 3 [PDF][Replication files]. Media: E-IR, Ideas for India, Indian Strategic Studies, EEA press release
"The Effect of Recent Technological Change on U.S. Immigration Policy: Evidence from Congressional Roll Call Votes" Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization (2024): Volume 227, 106759 [PDF][Replication files](Codes only, data available on request)]
"The role of human-capital in Artificial Intelligence adoption", with Erik van der Marel Economics Letters (2024): Volume 244, 111949, [PDF][Replication files]. Media: ECIPE Report, Podcast
"The dynamic effects of monsoon rainfall shocks on agricultural yield, wages, and food prices in India", with Matthias S. Hertweck, Scandinavian Journal of Economics (2023): Issue 3, p.616-654 [PDF][Replication files].
"The extension of short-time work schemes during the Great Recession: A story of success?", with Matthias S. Hertweck, Macroeconomic Dynamics 24 (2020): 360-402. [PDF].
"The consequences of a trade collapse: Economics and politics in Weimar Germany", with Giovanni Facchini, CEPR Working Paper DP19383 [WP] Submitted.
Abstract: What are the political consequences of de-globalization? We address this question in the context of Weimar Germany, which experienced a 67% decline in exports between 1928-1932. During this period, the Nazi party vote share increased from 3% to 37%. Using newly digitized data, we show that this surge was not driven by the direct effects of the export decline in manufacturing areas. At the same time, trade shock-induced declines in food prices spread economic hardship to rural hinterlands. We document that this indirect effect and the pro-agriculture policies put forward by the Nazis are instead key to explain their electoral success."Panic politics on the US West Coast", with Nicolas Berman and Jérémy Laurent-Lucchetti, CEPR Working Paper DP17874 [PDF][WP] Submitted
Abstract: This study highlights that even individual incidents of conflict causing negligible damage can have considerable political consequences. Using the distance to the Ellwood bombardment, the only shelling of civilian installations on the US mainland during WW2, we find that in counties nearer the incident support for the right-wing Republican challenger increased in the 1942 California gubernatorial election. The location of the submarine attack along the California coast being random and the absence of observable pre-trends suggests that the estimated effect is causal. Further, there is no corresponding effect observed for the two attacks on non-civilian targets during WW2 (the bombardment of Fort Stevens an the Lookout Air Raids). There is a corresponding effect on presidential, house and senate results. The effect appears to persist for a considerable time even after WW2 ended."The Death of King Coal and the Scars of Deindustrialization", with Valeria Rueda, CEPR Working Paper DP19082 [WP] Submitted. Media: VoxEU
Abstract: This paper investigates the human cost of industrial decline. We focus on the largest contraction of the coal industry in the UK. Using longitudinal data following two cohorts born in 1958 and 1970, we estimate the lifelong effects of being exposed to pit closures during childhood on health and economic outcomes. Those exposed to the shock as children have worse health throughout life, and this effect transmits over generations. They are also raised in less privileged economic conditions and accumulate less wealth as adults. We also uncover that migration is an imperfect mitigation strategy. The longitudinal data structure allows us to account for different trajectories in the effects across locations and cohorts. We also verify that outcomes are identical in levels before the shock. Results are robust to a battery of robustness checks. These findings highlight that in the absence of any support, industrial decline has long-lasting consequences imperfectly mitigated by access to better opportunities. Few people move, and those who do keep a scar.“Collective Memory and National Identity Formation: The Role of Family and the State”, with Joanne Haddad and Lamis Kattan [WP] Submitted
Abstract: State-led repression of minority identities is a well-documented phenomenon, yet its implications for national identity remain understudied. We examine how the Soviet state-induced famine (1932–33) shapes contemporary Ukrainian national identity through vertical (familial) and horizontal (community/state) transmission. Using newly geocoded individual-level data, we find that individuals from high-famine-exposure areas are more likely to identify as Ukrainian. We document that under Soviet rule, family networks preserved identity, while church closures weakened community transmission. After independence, state-led remembrance efforts, revitalized horizontal transmission. Our findings show how repression and remembrance shape identity persistence and reflect the famine’s lasting influence on Ukrainian-Russian relations."Export Subsidies as Industrial Policy: the Case of the 19th Century Sugar Industry", with Lidia Smitkova and Karolina Hutkova, [preliminary draft here]
"Property Rights and Technological Inertia: Evidence from the Electrification of Switzerland", with Jacob Weisdorf, [preliminary draft here]
"Technological change and gender attitudes: Evidence from Switzerland", with Cecilia García Peñalosa and Edoardo Cefala, [preliminary draft here]
"Forbidden love: The impact of banning interracial marriages", with Jade Ponsard and Roberta Ziparo [presented]
"Supporting independence: Political connections and import substitution in India" with Roberto Bonfatti and Cyril Thomson [presented]
"Swiss folklore: A dataset of historical economic, legal and cultural practices" with Paula Gobbi, Marc Goñi, David Mainus [data collection in progress]
General interest talks:
Keynote Energiomstilling VEST meeting 2026
Keynote 2025 Norwegian Economic Association conference (Forskermøtet)
Podcasts:
The long-term effects of technology on economic growth, ECIPE episode 83, June 2022, hosted by Erik van der Marel
Articles:
Inne i den svarte boksen til moderne økonomisk vekst: Nobelprisen i økonomi 2025 (Inside the Black Box of Modern Economic Growth), Samfunnsøkonomen nr. 1/2026.
The persistent human costs of deindustrialisation, VOXEU/CEPR column, 2024, with Valeria Rueda
Artificial Intelligence and the Clustering of Human Capital: The Risks for Europe, ECIPE, December 2023, with Frederik Erixon and Erik van der Marel [Blog][Summary][Policy Report]
Trade, industrialization and support for anti-colonial movements, E-International relations, August 2020, with Roberto Bonfatti
World War I and industrialization in British India, Ideas for India, May 2020, with Roberto Bonfatti