Site is moving! This is archived version. Visit new site @ https://jsgosnell.github.io/cuny_biostats_website/

Intro to Bayesian Statistics

Resources

Before p < 0.05 to Beyond p < 0.05: Using History to Contextualize p-Values and Significance Testing

A simple introduction to Markov Chain Monte–Carlo sampling - Psychonomic Bulletin & Review

Bayesian inference in ecology

Bayesian Hierarchical Models in EcologyThis is a book that is build on lectures from a course of the same name.

A Zero-Math Introduction to Markov Chain Monte Carlo MethodsFor many of us, Bayesian statistics is voodoo magic at best, or completely subjective nonsense at worst. Among the trademarks of the…

Lecture Slides

Stand-alone Bayesian

Corresponding Code

Download file by clicking here and or view and download in the Github Repository https://downgit.github.io/#/home?url=https://github.com/jsgosnell/CUNY-BioStats/blob/master/lecture_files/12_bayes_standalone.R . You can download a single file by clicking raw; on the next page right-click the screen, select "Save as", and save the resulting .txt file (same as a .R script).

Practice!

The link above will take you to a github file showing the assignment. You can make a copy of the repository it's in to complete the assignment. This is also what the link you receive via github classroom will accomplish.

Extra Material

Issues

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00031305.2018.1537891

Scientists rise up against statistical significanceValentin Amrhein, Sander Greenland, Blake McShane and more than 800 signatories call for an end to hyped claims and the dismissal of possibly crucial effects.

Not seeing anything above? Reauthenticate

It’s time to talk about ditching statistical significanceLooking beyond a much used and abused measure would make science harder, but better.

Not seeing anything above? Reauthenticate

Fisher, Neyman-Pearson or NHST? A tutorial for teaching data testingDespite frequent calls for the overhaul of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST), this controversial procedure remains ubiquitous in behavioral, social and biomedical teaching and research. Little change seems possible once the procedure becomes well ingrained in the minds and current practice of researchers; thus, the optimal opportunity for such change is at the time the procedure is taught, be this at undergraduate or at postgraduate levels. This paper presents a tutorial for the teaching of data testing procedures, often referred to as hypothesis testing theories. The first procedure introduced is Fisher's approach to data testing—tests of significance; the second is Neyman-Pearson's approach—tests of acceptance; the final procedure is the incongruent combination of the previous two theories into the current approach—NSHT. For those researchers sticking with the latter, two compromise solutions on how to improve NHST conclude the tutorial.

Examples

ESP claims in psychology
P-hacking?

Monty Hall Problem | Brilliant Math & Science WikiThe Monty Hall problem is a famous, seemingly paradoxical problem in conditional probability and reasoning using Bayes' theorem. Information affects your decision that at first glance seems as though it shouldn't. In the problem, you are on a game show, being asked to choose between three doors. Behind each door, there is either a car or a goat. You choose a door. The host, Monty Hall, picks one of the other doors, which he …

Papers

Rouder et al 2009

Website for Kruschke 2013

Wetzel et al 2011

Tools

Simon Jackman’s Bayesian Model Examples in Stan

R functions for Bayesian Model Statistics and Summaries #rstats #stan #brmsA new update of my sjstats-package just arrived at CRAN. This blog post demontrates those functions of the sjstats-package that deal especially with Bayesian models. The update contains some new an…

Bayesian inference completely solves the multiple comparisons problem - Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social ScienceI promised I wouldn’t do any new blogging until January but I’m here at this conference and someone asked me a question about the above slide from my talk. The point of the story in that slide is that flat priors consistently give bad inferences. Or, to put it another way, the routine use of …

Not seeing anything above? Reauthenticate

Not seeing anything above? Reauthenticate

Website for Kruschke 2013

BEST for 2 samples online calculator: http://www.sumsar.net/best_online/

Bayesian analyses made easy: GLMMs in R package brmsHere I illustrate how to fit GLMMs with the R package brms, and compare to Jags and lme4. Motivation I regularly give a course on Bayesian statistics with R for non-specialists. To illustrate the course, we analyse data with generalized linear, often m...

Fun examples

Google Sites

Report abuse