The field of the 2022 Candidates Tournament is set, and every player is ranked at least 15th in the world: GM Ding Liren (2nd), GM Alireza Firouzja (3rd), GM Fabiano Caruana (4th), GM Richard Rapport (5th), GM Ian Nepomniachtchi (6th), GM Hikaru Nakamura (11th), GM Teimour Radjabov (13th), and GM Jan-Krzysztof Duda (15th).

What kind of Candidates Tournament can we expect from the first round on June 17 until possible tiebreaks on July 5? Well, that depends on these players, of course. How did they get here, and what are their chances of winning? Those questions and more are addressed in this article.

How can you watch the most important tournament of the entire year? It's easy, as the 2022 Candidates Tournament will air on all Chess.com channels: Chess.com/TV, Chess.com/Events, on our Twitch channel and on YouTube.com/ChesscomLive. Games begin on June 17!

Traditionally, a player who wins the Candidates knows who their next opponent will be. However, given comments by GM Magnus Carlsen after the 2021 World Championship, reiterated again recently, and a foray into poker as well, it's dangerous to assume that he is defending his title. That said, whatever he says to the public, it remains difficult to imagine once the time comes, that he'll just give up the title with no questions asked. (And at least one of his potential challengers is on the record as doubtful that he would skip the match.) While there are a handful of possible opponents who probably wouldn't excite Carlsen too much, most of them have a profile that probably would actually.

• Ding Liren

• Alireza Firouzja

• Fabiano Caruana

• Richard Rapport

• Ian Nepomniachtchi

• Hikaru Nakamura

• Teimour Radjabov

• Jan-Krzysztof Duda

• Conclusion

Ding Liren

Ding is simultaneously one of the likeliest players in the field and one of the least likely. He is the highest-rated player in it and has planted himself in the world top-three since February 2019. However, for almost the entire cycle, it appeared he would be left out of the Candidates. He got his chance after GM Sergey Karjakin was banned, but even that barely happened, as Ding played a number of games at the last moment to reach the minimum necessary to qualify.

Ding looked up and found his late path into another Candidates. Photo: Maria Emelianova/Chess.com.

Ding has a strong argument as the best player in the Candidates, which will be his third consecutive appearance in the event. Carlsen, in another notorious interview just before the 2021 World Championship, stated that Ding was one of two players who could really challenge him for the world championship. (It was notorious because the other player of the two was not Carlsen's actual opponent in the 2021 match.)

If Ding Wins?

Can Magnus really say what he did about Ding and not defend against him? The only way is if Carlsen not only thinks the title of world champion is useless to him but useless generally. And perhaps that is his opinion, but it would put him in a minority, no doubt influenced by his personal contempt for the title that has only brewed while he's been its holder.

Anyway, we're talking about Ding here. His most notable game against Carlsen was actually a blitz affair, with which Ding won the 2019 Sinquefield Cup in tiebreaks. Ding also pushed Nakamura to the limit in the semifinals of the 2021 Speed Chess Championship, so it would be dangerous to sleep on the Chinese player's fast chess abilities if the world championship match goes that far. This will also be the first Candidates with rapid and blitz tiebreaks for any first-place tie (the previous Candidates had a games provision only after other tiebreaks were applied first).

What Are The Chances?

After drawing 13 out of 14 games in his 2018 debut in the Candidates, Ding struggled in the first half of the 2020–21 tournament. But more than a year later, he was the best player in the second half both by score (4.5/7) and computer-measured accuracy (99.0%). Ding's comfort level in Madrid, which will be his first over-the-board tournament on foreign soil since the 2021 Candidates, will decide much about the course of the 2022 Candidates. If he has a successful first half this time, watch out.

Alireza Firouzja

The 18-year-old Firouzja (do you know he's 18?) has enjoyed a meteoric rise in the last couple of years, and he qualified for the Candidates with an outright victory at the Riga Grand Swiss in late 2021.

The same focus that brought Firouzja success at the 2021 Grand Swiss will be useful at the Candidates. Photo: Maria Emelianova/Chess.com.

Firouzja is the youngest player in the field by five years, and he reached world number-two—while also becoming the youngest player ever with a 2800 rating—after scoring 8/11 in the Grand Swiss followed by an 8/9 at the European Team Championship. From Junior Speed Chess Championship semifinalist in 2019 to world number-two two years later: not bad. Firouzja's position was only recently usurped by Ding in the latter's late push to make the Candidates.

If Firouzja Wins?

When Carlsen began speculating that he might not defend his championship, he made an exception for Firouzja who represents the next generation. So Firouzja would seem to be the one victor who would guarantee a Carlsen match.

Still, Firouzja's experience in the absolute highest echelons of chess remains somewhat limited, especially compared to the veterans of the field, and his history with Magnus is no exception. Firouzja has yet to score a full point against Carlsen in a classical game, going 0–5. He does have some moments from online rapid.

Firouzja, Alireza (2759) vs. Carlsen, Magnus (2847)

1-0 Goldmoney Asian Rapid | Prelims Online 26 Jun 2021 Round: 1.6 ECO: C30

87654321abcdefgh

Notes by Peter Doggers (2021). Firouzja took down Carlsen in what has traditionally been more the world champion's territory than his opponent's: the endgame.1. e4 e52. Nc3 Nf63. Bc4 Bc54. d3 d65. f4 Nc66. Nf3 a67. Bb3

7. fxe5 dxe58. Bg5 h69. Bxf6 Qxf610. Nd5 Qd811. Qe2 O-O12. c3 b513. Bb3 a514. Ne3 Qd6Mekhitarian,K (2554)-Matlakov,M (2685) Chess.com 2020

7... h68. Qe2 Bg49. fxe5 N

9. Be3 Nd410. Qf2 Bxf311. gxf3 Nh5Detko,R (1618)-Mazur,S (2040) Brezova pod Bradlom 2006

9... dxe510. Be3 Nd411. Qf2 Bxf312. gxf3 Nh513. O-O-O Nf414. Kb1 Nxb315. Bxc5 Nxc516. Qxc5 Qd617. Qxd6 cxd618. d4 O-O-O19. Rd2 Ne620. Ne2 Rhf821. d5 Ng522. Rd3 Nh323. Rc1 f524. c4 fxe425. fxe4 Rf226. Nc3 Rxh227. c5 Nf428. Rdd1 Kb829. c6 Rc830. Na4 Re231. Nb6 Rc732. Nd7+ Ka733. Rc4 h534. Rg1 g6 ?!

Black had to continue the original plan:34... h435. Rxg7 h336. Rh7 h237. Rc1 Rg2followed by 38... Nd3 and White is helpless.

35. a4 h4 ?Now this is losing.

Necessary was35... Nd336. Rxg636. b4 Rb2+36... Rxb2+37. Ka1 Rd2and Black has the better chances but isn't completely winning.

36. b4White comes first here.36... b6

36... h337. b5 h238. b6+ Ka839. cxb7+ Rxb740. Rc8+

37. b5 a5

The problem with37... h3is38. a5 !

38. Nxe5 ! h3

38... dxe539. d6

39. Rh1 ?!

Best was39. Nf3

39... Nxd540. Nxg6 ? Ne3 ?

Carlsen got a second chance:40... Rf7 !!with the plan of doubling on the second rank was good for a draw.

41. Rc3 Ng442. Nf4 Rxe443. Nd5 Nf244. Nxc7 Nxh145. Rxh31-0

What Are The Chances?

It's hard to win your very first Candidates Tournament. Nepomniachtchi did pull off the feat just this past year, but Karjakin and Caruana before him needed a second appearance to achieve a victory. Some extremely strong players, like GM Levon Aronian or GM Vladimir Kramnik, have never won a Candidates despite multiple opportunities. (Kramnik became world champion after he was hand-picked as the challenger and played in several Candidates Tournaments after losing his title.) The two teenagers to previously contest a Candidates, Carlsen and GM Bobby Fischer, didn't come close to winning it either—and teenage Fischer had two chances, in 1959 and 1962.

You certainly can't rule out a top-three player, but smooth sailing to the top of the chess world almost never happens. The closest thing to an exception is GM Garry Kasparov, who qualified for his first Candidates at 19, turned 20 while winning it, and only finally faced a real hiccup in the world championship when he fell behind 5–0. It's probably too much to expect a Kasparov-like path for anyone besides Kasparov, but Firouzja certainly could pull it off.

Fabiano Caruana

Caruana is one of two players in the field who has won this event before, doing so in 2018. He qualified this time by finishing in second place in the Grand Swiss. And despite Firouzja's huge success there, Caruana won their individual matchup to remind everyone that the established vets can still play too

.

Caruana has won one of these tournaments before and hopes to win again. Photo: Maria Emelianova/Chess.com.

This will be Caruana's fourth consecutive appearance in a Candidates Tournament, the longest active streak. He was surely hoping that streak would stop at two, but after losing the 2018 World Championship to Carlsen, Caruana has come back for two more tries. It's no surprise at all as, ever since his 2014 Sinquefield Cup performance, Caruana has been perhaps the scariest opponent to face in all of classical chess this side of Magnus.

If Caruana Wins?

Caruana was, with Ding, the other player Carlsen said in 2021 would pose the biggest challenge to his world championship crown. It's not difficult to figure out why, as Caruana nearly pulled it off once already, drawing every game in 2018 and coming so close to winning the sixth game. At that time, Carlsen admitted Caruana had an equal right to the claim of the best player in the world at slower time controls. It's hard to imagine Carlsen getting no motivation from the idea of beating Caruana in the classical stage of the match.

Magnus Carlsen vs. Fabiano Caruana

1/2-1/2 2018 World Championship London 09 Nov 2018 Round: 6 ECO: C42

87654321abcdefgh

Notes by GM Sam Shankland (2018). Yesterday was the first game where I thought Carlsen was under any real pressure, and today was the first day where he was in serious danger of losing. I don't know who will be less happy with today's turn of events. Much like game one, one player should not be encouraged to be lucky to survive with white, and the other player can't be happy about not taking one of what will probably be very few chances to score a full point. Beating 2800+ guys is tough!1. e4Magnus opts for 1.e4 for the first time. I wondered if Caruana would want to play the Petroff, sticking with his main and best opening but eschewing any surprise value. I mostly expected something else since he has at least so far ditched the QGA, but it looks like at least for now, he is happy to stick with his guns.1... e52. Nf3 Nf63. Nxe5 d64. Nd3This is a trendy new move as of 2018, but I can't imagine it's the most testing try.

4. Nf3Is the main move. There follows4... Nxe4And now both d4 and Nc3 are serious tries to fight for an advantage. Caruana has faced both these moves many times in the past couple years.

4... Nxe45. Qe2 Qe76. Nf4 Nc6 !?Initiative a funny forced sequence, but both players were undoubtedly ready for it.

6... Nf6Also looks fine. I have a hard time imagining White getting anywhere in these symmetrical endings. Still, boring as they appear, they can liven up. Caruana's game with Kramnik in the Candidates saw a quick queen trade as well, and a full point was passed back and forth more than once as the position got complicated and the players got low on time.

7. Nd5 Nd4 !8. Nxe7 Nxe2The position is really weird, but funnily enough, it seems balanced. White cannot make use of the extra tempo with both knights ransacking the other side's back rank.9. Nd5

9. Bxe2 Bxe7is obviously equal.

9. Nxc8 Nxc1leads nowhere for White either.

9... Nd410. Na3

10. Nxc7+ ?!Grabbing the rook leads to trouble10... Kd811. Nxa8 ?11. Bd3 ! Nxf212. Kxf2 Kxc7Should be equal11... Nxc2+12. Kd1 Nxa1The loose f2-pawn will be White's undoing.

10... Ne611. f3 N4c512. d4 Nd713. c3Both players were still playing fast. Black's knights have been booted all the way backwards from their previously impressive posts on e2 and e4, but he retains a very solid position and doesn't have any weaknesses.13... c614. Nf4 Nb615. Bd3 d516. Nc2White's moral advantage of slightly better coordination is more or less meaningless. When I woke up and this position was on the board, I expected another fast draw, not to have to wait 5 hours until after lunch to write about the game.16... Bd617. Nxe6 Bxe618. Kf2 h519. h4 Nc820. Ne3 Ne721. g3 c522. Bc2 ?!This move was the start of Carlsen's troubles. Bringing the bishop to b3 to pressure the d5 pawn might seem natural, but it was a decision he later likely regretted as the bishop became a target and didn't accomplish very much.

22. Ng2Magnus found this maneuver later, and he should have done it here as well. White still retains a moral advantage that is very, very unlikely to yield a full point.

22... O-O23. Rd1 Rfd824. Ng2White makes the positional threat of dxc5 followed by Be3 to make an isolated d5-pawn. I was not at all surprised to see Caruana play cxd4 in response, but I found it a little strange he did not make the move immediately.24... cxd4 !25. cxd4 Rac826. Bb3 Nc6 !The knight is coming to a5, when is becomes clear the bishop on b3 is doing more harm than good for White's position.27. Bf4 Na5Now White has some problems to solve.28. Rdc1Very necessary.

28. Bxd6 ? Nxb3 !29. axb3 Rc2+ !An important in-between move. Black takes the second rank and White is in trouble.

28... Bb429. Bd1 Nc430. b3 Na3 !This was Black's only serious try. The knight will be good on b5, and he is hoping to use the a2-pawn as a long-term weakness.

30... Nd6I guess this could transpose, but it does allow Bxd6.31. Rxc831. Bxd6 !?I am not convinced that the bishop pair matters here since White has no bad pieces. If his bishop was on e3 he would be much worse, but as is, it is on the right color complex and will not magically move to a dark square. With moves like Bf3 and Ne3 coming, I can't imagine White having any serious issues.31... Rxc832. Rc1

31. Rxc8 Rxc832. Rc1 Nb533. Rxc8+ Bxc834. Ne3 Nc335. Bc2

35. a4In light of the problems White faced in the game, it may have been worth considering to play a4 to avoid the weakness on a2. He voluntarily gave up the light-squared bishop later anyway.35... Nxd1+36. Nxd1 f6Black is slightly better and will press, but I have a hard time seeing him win. Ne3, Bf4, Kd3 looks very hard to break down.

35... Ba3 !Preventing a2-a4. It will be very hard to hold onto this pawn.36. Bb8 a637. f4 Bd738. f5 Bc6Now Nxa2 is an honest to goodness threat.39. Bd1A sad necessity, also highlighting why I think a4 earlier on may have been worth considering.39... Bb2

39... Nxd1+ !?40. Nxd1Leads to a similar ending to the one after 35.a4, but here the pawn is fixed on a2, and f5 is vulnerable too. I still think it should be a draw but White's defense will be tougher.

40. Bxh5 Ne4+

40... Nxa2 !?I would have certainly gone for this one, hoping to use the potential for an outside passed pawn. Caruana's choice is not bad of course.

41. Kg2 Bxd442. Bf4 Bc5White's position should be defensible. What Magnus chose to do next made his life tougher, which is the first step towards losing the game.43. Bf3 Nd244. Bxd5 !?

44. Nd1In hindsight, this may have been a better choice. I do think the game move should hold, but White's margin for error was very slim.44... Nxf345. Kxf3 d4+46. Ke2 Be447. g4White is worse but hanging in there. Nf2-d3 is a real plan.47... Bb148. Kd2 !The pawn is taboo.48... Bb4+48... Bxa2 ?49. Kc249. Kc1 Bd350. Nf2 Be251. g5 Be152. Ne4 Bxh453. Bg3This computer line shows White holding, but I can understand why Magnus would not be keen to enter it. If he was confident the piece-down position was a draw, one cannot berate him for making that choice.

44... Bxe345. Bxc6 Bxf446. Bxb7 Bd647. Bxa6 Ne448. g4 Ba3 !An important move, without which White would hold easily by playing a2-a4 and keeping the bishop defending b3. Now White must lose one of his queenside pawns.49. Bc4 Kf850. g5 Nc351. b4 !Magnus correctly chooses to leave himself with the pawn the farthest away from the kingside.51... Bxb452. Kf3This is a very difficult endgame to play, judge and assess, but I'll share my general impressions. The bishop on c4 lasering down on the f7-pawn means that sooner or later, Black will be forced to play f7-f6. Then, White probably will not want to take the pawn unless forced to--he still has a plan to bring the king to g6 to attack the base of the pawn chain, since he can play gxf6 anytime. If White takes on f6 and Black can recapture with the pawn, he will never be able to take Black's last one.52... Na453. Bb5 Nc554. a4 f6As previously mentioned, Black was forced to play f6. Now, I think his best winning plan is to try to force the g5/f6 pawn tension to resolve. If White ever plays g6, Black can blockade the a-pawn with his knight, bring the bishop to the c1-h6 diagonal to let the king join the fight, and he will probably win. White should never let this happen and if forced to resolve the tension he must take on f6, though this is also not ideal.55. Kg4

55. g6 ?A move like this illustrates my point nicely.55... Bd256. h5 Ke757. a5 Kd6Black will win the a5-pawn and the game. White needs to leave the kingside pawns as they were in order to keep some annoying counterplay with a potential passer that Black will need to pay attention to.

55... Ne4 !Black ups the pressure on the g5-pawn. He really wants it to move.56. Kh5Now Kg6 is on the agenda. Black's king is clearly needed to defend the kingside, and if Kg6 comes next, it will be an easy draw.56... Be1 !Black freezes White's king by attacking the h4-pawn, preventing it from going to its desired destination.

56... Bd2 ?It would be foolish to only think about Black's plan. White gets the king to g6 and draws easily since g5 cannot be taken.57. Kg6 ! fxg558. hxg5And now Bxg5 would allow Bd3, while Nxg5 would allow f6. The game is drawn.

57. Bd3 Nd658. a5 !I like Magnus' decision. The a-pawn was never a threat to queen and could only serve as a distraction for Black's pieces, so he takes his one and only chance to force Kg6 through, even at the cost of a pawn.

58. Kg4The machine prefers to wait. I don't know if Black can win, but he has serious attempts. For instance,58... Nf7Is a good start. Black wants Bd2 and to force a resolution of the pawn tension, giving him one fewer weakness to worry about, the security that the f6-pawn will never be captured, and the g7-square for his king.59. Bc259. Bc4 ? Ne5+59... Bd2 !60. gxf6 gxf661. Kf3This position might be a draw, but I am not as confident in this as I am about the one with the king on g6.

58... Bxa559. gxf6 !

59. Kg6 ? Bd8 !And White will not be left with a passer. After60. gxf6 Bxf6 !61. h5 Nf7 !Black prevents further trades, and with no passed pawn, there is no counterplay. Black will eventually win.

59... gxf660. Kg6 Bd8At this point, I think Black will win if he can get his king to h8. Then Ne5+ would be a valid plan to kick out the white king.61. Kh7 !

61. Bc2 ? Kg862. Bb1The knight will take its time to get to e5, but it does get there.62... Nf7 ?Too hasty.62... Nb563. Bd3 Nd464. Bc4+ Kh865. Bd5 Ne266. Bc4 Nf4+f4 might be a fine square too. As long as Black can bring his king up to stop and ultimately capture the h-pawn, he should win. In order to stop this, White absolutely must keep the black king off of the g-file.67. Kf7 Kh763. Ba2

61... Nf762. Bc4 Ne563. Bd5 Ba564. h5White is not happy about his pawn being forced onto a light square, but there was nothing he could do about it anyway since Black could always play Be1 if he so desired. Still, I think this position is just a draw. White leaves his king on h7 until the end of time. If the Black king ever leaves, Kg7 followed by h5-h6 becomes a serious idea. And the only way to dislodge the king is to try to bring the knight to g5. As long as White's bishop is on the a2-g8 diagonal at that time to avoid the coming Kg8, I cannot see a plan for Black.64... Bd265. Ba2 Nf366. Bd5 Nd4

66... Ng5+67. Kg6 Bc3As I mentioned, this gets Black nowhere since the king cannot come to g8. h6 draws on the spot, but even if White sits with Ba2, there isn't much for Black to do. As soon as the knight moves, Kh7 comes again.

67. Kg6 ?Technically this move does lose in a higher sense, and the monster machines point out mate in 64 or something like this. It is well outside of human capability for Black to prove it, even for a 2800+ player. Still, I think it was the wrong idea to leave h7 on simple grounds. It was the best square for White's king and should not leave unless forced to.67... Bg568. Bc4 Nf3I would not feel right awarding this move a question mark since the win was some computer nonsense that was clearly impossible for a being with flesh and bones.

68... Bh4 !According to the monster, this was the only winning move. The point is that White is in a deadly zugzwang. If he ever advances h6, the pawn eventually gets captured. If the bishop leaves the a2-a8 diagonal, Kg8 comes. And if the bishop leaves the a6-f1 diagonal, Ne2-f4 is winning.69. Bd5 !The most resilient try.69. h6 Nf3 !White loses after Ne5+70. Ba270. h7 Ne5+71. Kh5 Kg772. Ba2 Bg570... Ne5+71. Kh5 Bg572. Bb3 Nd3Nf4 comes next. The pawn will be lost.69... Ne270. Bf370. Kh7 Bg5 !Somehow White cannot hold the pawns.70... Ng1 !Another impossible only move. If Caruana could make it here by some miracle I'd give him good chances to find the rest of his way, but Bh4 and Ne2-g1 both feel completely outside of human capability.71. Bd571. Bg4 Kg8 !Black got his king to g8, and will be able to put White in zugzwang to get the knight out.72. Kh6 Bf273. Kg6 Bd474. Kh6 Be3+75. Kg6 Bg5 !White must either play h6 or let the knight escape.76. h6 Kh877. h7 Bh478. Kh5 Be179. Kg6 Bc380. Kh6 Bd2+ !81. Kg6 Bg5 !The same Bg5 makes a second zugzwang. The knight gets out.71... Bg5 !And White is in zugzwang again. h6 will always lose, but he also cannot allow the bishop to leave d5.72. Kh772. h6 Nh372. Ba2 Nh3Nf4 will win the pawn72... Ne2 !And White's bishop runs out of squares.73. Ba273. Bb3 Nd4 !Wins the f5-pawn73. Be6 Nf473. Bc4 Nf4 !73... Nf4 !Forces h5-h6.

69. Kh7It's a technical draw again.69... Ne570. Bb3 Ng471. Bc4 Ne372. Bd3 Ng473. Bc4 Nh674. Kg6 Ke7Black can bring the king, but f5 is impossible to capture without letting the h-pawn run.75. Bb3 Kd676. Bc2 Ke577. Bd3 Kf478. Bc2 Ng479. Bb3 Ne380. h6 Bxh6The ending was fascinating to study, though Magnus's only serious danger came from an impossible computer line. Still, he did come much closer to losing today than he had in any other game yet. Now he has tried 3 different first moves in his first 3 white games. He will play white again in game 7, and my guess is we will see him repeat a previous choice for the first time, hoping to come with better analysis now that he has more of an idea what to prepare for. The second half of the match should produce some more interesting games as the pressure increases and there is more to play for in every game.1/2-1/2

What Are The Chances?

As one of two players here to win this event in the past, Caruana is clearly capable of doing it again. His opening preparation will surely be on point. We also know Caruana will play Nakamura in the first round because of the anti-collusion rule requiring all countrymen to face each other as early as possible in the Candidates, and that contest will perhaps be the key game of the opening round in determining the tone of the tournament. The United States is, in fact, the only country to have multiple players in this field.

Richard Rapport

Like Firouzja, Rapport is another player who, if you were asked 24 months ago, you probably would not have guessed to be in this event. Rapport was rated as low as 2675 as recently as 2017, but he capped off a strong run of play in recent months, which brought him securely into the world's top-10, with a second-place finish in the 2022 FIDE Grand Prix

.

Maybe Rapport is thinking about his career choices, but he'll for sure be focused on the Candidates when it begins. Photo: Maria Emelianova/Chess.com.

At 26, Rapport is the third-youngest player in the tournament after Firouzja and Duda.

If Rapport Wins?

Rapport's history with the sitting world champion starts off with a bang. At Tata Steel 2017, Rapport won his very first classical game against Magnus (a feat more famously repeated four years later by GM Andrey Esipenko). Rapport and Carlsen have still only played each other 10 times at any time control.

Rapport, Richard (2702) vs. Carlsen, Magnus (2840)

1-0 Tata Steel Masters 22 Jan 2017 Round: 8.1 ECO: A12

87654321abcdefgh

Notes by GM Dejan Bojkov (2017).1. Nf3 d52. b3 Bf53. Bb2 e64. d3 h65. Nbd2 Nf66. c4 c67. g3 Be78. Bg2Against the world champion, Rapport decided to play solidly. No King's Gambit, but the Reti.8... O-O9. O-O Nbd710. a3 a511. Qb1Not a very common idea.

The typical Reti maneuver was also possible:11. Ra2 Bh712. Qa1 Nc513. Bc3 b514. Ne5 Qb615. cxd5 cxd516. Bd4followed by the doubling of the white rooks on the open c-file as in Melkumyan,H (2640)-Tabatabaei,M (2481) Warsaw 2016.

However Reti was regrouping with:11. Rc1and this remains one of the main continuations nowadays too.11... Bh712. Rc2 Bd613. Qa1and Richard already has a game like that: Rapport,R (2654)-Svetushkin,D (2588) Calvi 2013.

11... Bh7Generally a useful move. Carlsen sidesteps the possible attack of the white knight from d4.12. b4The point behind White's previous move.12... axb413. axb4 Qb6

After13... dxc4 !?14. Nxc4 Nd5White will have to sacrifice a pawn, but that was probably part of White's preparation:15. Rxa8 Qxa816. Bd4 Nxb416... Bxb4 ?17. e417. Qb2 Nf618. Ra1 Qd819. Bc3 c520. Ra5with compensation.

14. Bc3 Rxa1In a previous game, White got some advantage after:

14... Ra615. Rxa615. c5 !?might have been even better with a pull after15... Qa716. Qb2 Ra817. Rxa6 Qxa618. Nb315... Qxa616. Qb3 dxc417. dxc4Lputian,S (2590)-Adelman,C (2220) Long Beach 1994

15. Qxa1 Bxb416. Bxb4 Qxb417. Rb1 Qd618. Rxb7Almost all the queenside pawns disappeared, and the game is heading to a draw. Black's only problem might be the bishop on h7, but Carlsen takes measures to bring it into life.18... e519. d4 !?

Or19. cxd5 cxd520. Nf1 Bf5with complete equality.

19... exd4

19... e4will leave the black bishop misplaced and allow White some edge after20. Ne5

20. Nxd4 c521. N4b3 d4Carlsen is looking for trouble and will get it. This move is still OK though. Rapport is right. The simple

21... dxc422. Nxc4 Qe6would have soon ended the game peacefully.

22. Bh3 d3 ?This, however, is not right. The line:

22... Rb823. Rxb8+ Qxb824. Qa5 Qc825. Qb5looks very passive for Black, but he can defend with25... Bg6 !to stop any back-rank mates. And if26. Nxc5 Qxc527. Bxd7 Qe7regains the pawn with equality.

Perhaps the simplest way to keep the balance was:22... Bc2 !?23. Qa7 Rd8

23. e3 !Now besides the queenside problems, Black needs to deal with the advance of White's e- and f-pawns.23... Ne524. Bg2 Rc8

Perhaps Carlsen should have tried something like24... Ned725. Qa7 Rc826. Bh3 Rd827. Rc7 Bg628. Bxd7 Nxd729. Nxc5 Nxc530. Rxc5although I do not trust much in his draw chances.

25. f4The pawns will cost Black a piece at least.25... Neg426. e4 Re8

Or26... Nd727. Qa7 Rd828. Bf3 h529. Rc7when Black is completely helpless.

27. e5 Nxe528. fxe5 Rxe529. Rb6 !Very neat. The queen is getting misplaced, or Black loses a pawn.

Perhaps the world champion hoped to survive the endgame after29. Qa7 Bf530. Qb8+ Qxb831. Rxb8+ Kh7

29... Qe7

Or29... Qxb630. Qxe5 Nd731. Qe8+ Nf832. Qc6when both c5 and d3 will be gone soon.

29... Qc730. Rc6 Qb831. Rxc5wins a pawn.

30. Rb8+ Ne831. Bc6 !A beautiful way to win the game.31... Re1+32. Qxe1 Qxe1+33. Nf1The queen will be regained. Carlsen resigned.

33. Nf1 d234. Nxd2

1-0

In the question, Would Magnus play him? Rapport is by no means a clear "no." Carlsen has a winning record in classical after avenging his initial Tata Steel loss with wins in their 2019 and '22 matchups at the same tournament and hasn't lost to Rapport at faster time controls. On the other hand, Rapport is five years younger than Carlsen, not insignificant, especially if Carlsen's objection to beating the same players over and over again is a significant part of his calculus.

What Are The Chances?

Rapport is actually in an interesting spot, as everyone else besides Firouzja and Duda is 29 or older. Maybe Rapport does have a slight endurance or energy advantage on the five older players while also holding an experience advantage on the two younger players. And with his rating where it is now, firmly in the top nine (in an ideal world, the champion is number one and the candidates are numbers two through nine), he's certainly good enough to be here and to win the whole thing.

The SmarterChess mathematical model isn't very high on Rapport's chances in part because Rapport's peak rating of 2776, which is also his current rating, isn't as high as most players in the field. But Rapport decided to play in Norway Chess starting in May, so he will have a chance to increase that rating just before the Candidates.

Ian Nepomniachtchi

The loser of the world championship has always gotten a seat at the ensuing Candidates, and Nepomniachtchi is no exceptio

n.

All three previous challengers would have been in this year's Candidates field until one player found glee in war, one which Nepomiachtchi has opposed. Photo: Maria Emelianova/Chess.com.

Always a major talent, Nepomniachtchi's game nonetheless plateaued from 2010-2016 before he finally took a leap into the very highest regions of the rating list. As the second-place finisher in the 2019 Grand Prix, he was the last non-wildcard player to qualify for the 2020 Candidates but put everything together to win it with a round to spare.

If Nepomniachtchi Wins?

Nepomniachtchi has the longest history with Magnus of anyone in this field, entering the 2021 World Championship with a 4–1 lifetime record against the champion going back to 2002, but struggling in the second half of the title match. It's difficult to imagine what more Carlsen could do than what he showed, winning with +4 =7, against Nepo so this is one of the more conceivable matchups for him to pass on should it arise again.

Carlsen, Magnus (2837) vs. Nepomniachtchi, Ian (2729)

0-1 London Chess Classic 10 Dec 2017 Round: 8.1 ECO: D13

87654321abcdefgh

Notes by GM Dejan Bojkov (2017).1. Nf3 c52. c3An original move order, which soon leads to...2... d53. d4 cxd44. cxd4...the Exchanged Slav $14... Nc65. Nc3 Nf66. Bf4 Nh57. Bd2 Nf6

Black can also choose to fianchetto his bishop with7... g68. e3 e69. Bb5 Bd710. Ne5 Nxe511. dxe5 Bxb512. Nxb5 a6Shimanov,A (2642)-Fedoseev,V (2690) Minsk 2017

8. e3 e69. Bd3 Bd610. e4Otherwise there is a risk of a dull, symmetrical draw.10... dxe411. Nxe4Now a position with an isolated central pawn arises.11... Be712. O-OWhen I first looked at the position I could not guess the opening. Similar situations are more common in the Panov Attack of the Caro-Kann, or the Nimzo-Indian.12... O-O

It is not advisable to grab a pawn like the one on d4 here:12... Nxd413. Nxd4 Qxd414. Bc3 Qd515. Qf3with a strong initiative after Ra1-d1 for the investment.

13. Qc2Weakening the kingside.13... h6A safe choice.

13... g6would weaken all the dark squares instead, although people successfully defend these positions too.

14. Rad1The plans of both sides are known from the Stone Age. White attacks the kingside and mates; Black trades and wins the isolani in the endgame.14... Bd715. a3 Rc816. Nc3 NA novelty.

Black was doing well after16. Qb1 Qb617. b4 Nxe418. Bxe4 Bf6as in Safarli,E (2620)-Mammadov,Z (2442) Baku 2012

16... a6Intending to advance the b-pawn.17. Qc1Not quite a delicate hint of what may happen on the kingside.17... Re8 !

A careless move like17... Na5would demonstrate White's idea:18. Bxh6 ! gxh619. Qxh6 Nc420. Ng5and mate.

18. Rfe1

Here18. Bxh6fails to18... gxh619. Qxh6 Bf820. Qh4 Bg7and Black defends.

18... Bf8Nepomniachtchi stopped the first attacking wave. Carlsen regroups.19. Bf4 b520. Qd2 b421. axb4 Nxb422. Ne5The world champion does not spend time defending the bishop...

22. Bb1...even though it is a very strong piece. Apparently Carlsen figured that the time factor is more important.

22... Nxd323. Qxd3Nepomniachtchi is consistently searching for play on the queenside.23... a5

There was an alternative though. The pawn sacrifice with23... Bb524. Nxb5 axb525. Qxb5is a common tool for Black in these positions as the sweet spot on d5 provides Black enough compensation for it.25... Qd525... Nd5

24. Qf3White is ready to shift the rooks along the third rank too and make the best use of his space advantage.24... Bb4Carlsen is also consistent with his plan.

The computer suggests the following defensive method instead24... a425. Re3 Qe726. Nxd7 Qxd727. Bxh6 Nd528. Nxd5 exd529. Rxe8 Qxe830. Bd2 Rc2somehow holding the position.

25. Re3

However, there was a strong argument for the cruel25. Bxh6 !The main idea is25... gxh6A better defense is25... Bxc326. bxc3 gxh6although White's initiative unfolds by itself after27. Qg3+ Kh7Or27... Kf828. Rd328. c4followed by Qg3-f4 also looks promising for White.28... Bc629. Qf428. Nxf7 Qe729. Qd3+ Kg730. Ne5For the piece White has two pawns and a strong initiative. The black king is in danger without the pawn cover.26. Ne4 Nxe4If26... Be7then there is a pleasant choice between the simple27. Nxf6+or the beautiful27. d5 exd528. Rxd5 Rc729. Qf4and Black is helpless.27... Bxf628. Nxd727. Qxf7+ Kh828. Ng6#

25... Bxc326. bxc3 Ba4Sending the bishop in an urgent rescue kingside mission.27. Ra1

The other options also look promising:27. Rde1 Bc228. R3e2 Bf529. g4

or27. Rc1which deprives the bishop from the b1-h7 diagonal.

27... Bc2The bishop made it, but can Black really be happy? He traded only two pairs of light pieces and the intended queenside play has petered out. Carlsen keeps pressurizing.28. h3 Bf5

Apparently, Black discarded28... Nd5because of the same old sacrifice29. Bxh6and eventual mate after29... Nxe3with the same old mate after29... gxh630. Qxf7+ Kh831. Ng6+A better defense is29... f630. Bxg7 fxe531. Bxe5 Qg532. Qg3 Qxg333. Rxg3+ Kh734. Rxa5although with four pawns for a piece White will love playing this.However, there was the strong defensive idea29... Qe7 !when30. Qg4does not yield White much due to30... Qf631. Rf3 Qxh632. Nxf7 Qg633. Qxg633. Qh4 Qh733... Bxg634. Nd6 Ra835. Nxe8 Bxe830. Qxf7+ Kh731. Qxg7#

29. g4 !The pawns clear the road of the pieces.29... Bh730. c4Capital play, all over the board.

Perhaps even better was30. g5 hxg531. Bxg5For example31... Bf532. Qg3 Nh533. Qh4 f634. Qxh5 fxg535. Qf7+ Kh736. d5 Qxd537. Qh5+ Kg838. Rd1and White should win.

30... Nd7Apparently Carlsen went for the pawn in order to avoid any complications, but missed a tactical shot.

Since30... Qxd4will be met with31. Rd1 Qa732. Bxh6

31. Nc6 ?!

Instead31. c5would have kept clear advantage for him, without any risk:31... Nf631... Nxe532. Bxe532. g5 hxg533. Bxg5 Bf534. Ra4Or34. c6

31... Qf632. Nxa5 Nb6White won a pawn, but the black pieces came into life. Now both white pawns are hanging and apparently Carlsen believed that his next move is the answer of his worries.

Cleverly avoiding32... Qxd4 ?33. Rd1 Qb634. Nb7 Nc535. Nd6which loses material for Black.

33. c5

33. Rc1is good for Black after33... Qxd434. Rd1 Qf6

33... Rxc5 !Simple but effective. Frustrated, White soon commits another blunder.

Maybe White expected33... Nd534. Be5 Qxf335. Rxf3

34. dxc5 ?!

Instead34. Be5 Qxf335. Rxf3 Rb536. Rb3 Rxb337. Nxb3would have most likely led to a draw, although Black can push for a win.

34... Qxa1+35. Kh2 Qxa536. Qc6A proper blunder.

36. cxb6 Qxb6would be a torture, but maybe White can survive.

36... Qa4...37. Qxa4 Nxa438. c6 Nb639. c7 f640. Rb3 Nc80-1

But if they were to play again, Nepomniachtchi would surely make adjustments to produce a closer match.

What Are The Chances?

Only three players have won two straight Candidates Tournaments: GM Vasily Smyslov (1953 and '56), GM Boris Spassky (1965 and '68), and GM Viktor Korchnoi (1977 and '80). Smyslov is the only one to pull it off in a round-robin format, and it has yet to happen in the post-reunification era (since 2006). But that actually makes it easier historically speaking than Caruana's task of winning twice out of three with a miss in between, which otherwise has never happened.

It's hard to beat eight-player fields this strong twice in a row, but it's doable. And Caruana does do it, it's worth noting that two of those three players (Smyslov and Spassky) won the world championship in their second attempt.

Hikaru Nakamura

Nakamura's victory in the 2022 FIDE Grand Prix got him into his second-ever Candidates tournament and first in six years. That will be the second-longest wait among the five players who have been here bef

ore.

For a while it seemed like 2016 would be the only Candidates of Nakamura's career, but he convincingly overturned the conventional wisdom in 2022. Photo: Maria Emelianova/Chess.com.

It's not a position you'd have necessarily expected the professional streamer to be in, but now that he's there, it makes total sense. Playing so much blitz and bullet in the last couple of years has made Nakamura extremely sharp at the board and alert to all his middlegame and endgame chances.

And Nakamura was at one time the second-highest rated player in the world at classical, so his abilities at any time control have never been in doubt. The only question has been whether he can take enough time out of his busy streaming schedule to devote to classical chess to remain at the highest level over-the-board. Consider that question answered in the overwhelming affirmative by the Grand Prix.

If Nakamura Wins?

As for Carlsen, Nakamura's history with him is well-documented. They are clearly the two best rapid and blitz players in the world, but Carlsen has had the advantage at classical time controls. That said, there is little doubt that Carlsen-Nakamura would be one of the most anticipated of the eight possible matches, exceeded possibly by only Carlsen-Firouzja. Given their history, it seems unlikely that should the time come, Magnus would let Hikaru become world champion without having something to say about it himself.

Carlsen, Magnus (2855) vs. Nakamura, Hikaru (2787)

0-1 9th Bilbao Masters Bilbao 13 Jul 2016 Round: 1.2

87654321abcdefgh

Notes by GM Dejan Bojkov (2016).1. e4 c52. Ne2Carlsen used this Anti-Najdorf line back in 2010.2... d63. Nbc3 a64. g3 g65. Bg2 Bg76. d4 cxd47. Nxd4 Nf6Now a Fianchettoed Dragon appears.8. O-O O-O9. b3 Nc6

Black can also start with9... Bg410. Qd2 Nc611. Nxc6 bxc612. Bb2 Qa513. h3 Be614. Rad1with approximate equality in Landa,K (2596)-Shneider,A (2532) Cappelle-la-Grande 2007

10. Nxc6 bxc611. Bb2 Qa5Technically speaking this is a novelty, but as we have seen from the game Landa-Shneider from above, this is not a new idea. Kovchan preferred instead:

11... Nd712. Qd2 a513. Na4 Bxb214. Nxb2 f6although White seems a tad better here to me, Hansen,M (2165)-Kovchan,A (2571) Copenhagen 2010

12. Na4 Bg413. Qe1In the case of:

13. Qd3Nakamura would have probably played13... Qh5again. Although13... Nd714. Bxg7 Kxg7should be also playable, as in the aforementioned game by Kovchan.

13... Qh5A very risky decision. Although one can easily understand why Nakamura did not choose the worse endgame after

13... Qxe114. Rfxe1 Nd7against Carlsen.

14. f3An ambitious approach. Carlsen wants to exclude the black queen from the play.

Simpler was14. e5 ! dxe5Black loses a pawn in the line14... Nd715. exd6 exd615... Bxb216. dxe716. Bxg7 Kxg717. Qc3+But not17. Bxc6 Rac818. Bxd7 Bxd7when Black has plenty of play on the light squares, or equality after19. Qd1 Qxd120. Rfxd1 Bxa421. bxa4 Rxc217... Qe518. Qxe5+ Nxe519. f415. Qxe5 Qxe516. Bxe5 Nd517. Rfe1

14... Bh315. g4 Qh616. Rd1Now Bb2-c1 is a deadly threat, thus

16. Bc1 g517. Bxh3 Qxh318. Bxg5would be met with18... Nxg4 !19. fxg4 Bxa120. Qxa1 Qxg4+21. Kh1 Qxe4+when Black is on top.

16... g5is forced. However after17. Bc1Black's position seems very suspicious. Still, Carlsen might have done better had he played:

17. Qe3instead, a move that prevents Black's activity in the line17... Bxg218. Kxg2 Qg619. Nb6 !The key move that keeps an eye on the d5-square.19... Rad8And nowNot19... Rab8 ?20. Bxf6 Bxf621. Nd720. Bc3After20. c4 ? Nxg4drops a pawn instead.20. Ba1is also possible though.20... d5White has a choice between21. e5And21. Bxf6 Bxf622. exd5 cxd523. Nxd5 Qxc2+24. Rd2 Qg625. Rff221... Nd722. Nxd7 Rxd7with advantage for the first player in either line.

17... Bxg218. Kxg2 Qg619. h4It was not too late to prevent the central break with

19. Qe3 h620. Nb6 Rab821. Nc4with the idea21... d5 ?22. Ne5

19... gxh420. Qxh4 d5 !Nakamura seizes his chance.21. g5 ?!Carlsen continues to play for domination, but his forces do not seem active enough. Instead:

21. exd5 cxd5Or21... Qxc2+22. Rd2 Qg623. dxc6 Rac822. c3 Rac8would have left the worst behind for Black.

21... dxe422. f4 e6 !Missed by Carlsen. Perhaps White was hoping for an attack in the lines:

22... h623. f5 hxg524. Bxg5 Qh725. Qxh7+ Kxh726. Rh1+26. Nb6 Rad827. Rh1+ Kg828. Rdg1is also good for White.26... Kg827. Bxf6 Bxf627... exf6looks ugly, self-trapping the bishop.28. Nb6 Rad829. Nd7 Rfe830. Kf2and Black can hardly survive here.

23. c4Takes away the d5-square from Black. That is important in the line

23. Kf2 Nd524. c4 Nb4

23... Rfd8Simple and good. Clearly worse was

23... h624. Nc5 hxg525. fxg5 Nh726. Qxe4with an edge for White.

24. Rde1

Now24. Nc5is met with24... Bf8

24... Ne8Black's queen survived. Black has won a pawn and has some juicy outposts for the knight.25. Nc5Active play is doomed to failure.

25. f5 exf526. Qh3 Nd627. c5 Nb528. Rxf5 Rd3

25... Nd626. Qf2 f527. Bb2 Nf7Also good was

27... Bxb228. Qxb2 Nf729. Qf6 Qxf630. gxf6 Nh631. Nxe6 Rd6with a clear edge in the endgame.

28. Bxg7 Kxg729. Qg3

More resilent seemed29. Re3with the idea to double the heavy pieces along the h-file.

29... Rd630. Rd1 Rad831. Rxd6 Rxd6In addition to the extra pawn, Nakamura has added open files for his heavy pieces. The decisive counter-attack is just around the corner.32. Qc3+ Kg833. Rf2 Qh534. Qh3 Qd135. Qe3 e536. Qg3

Or36. fxe5 Nxe537. Rxf5 ? Qg4+

36... Rg637. Kh2 exf438. Qxf4 Qh5+39. Kg1 Qd1+40. Kh2 Qh5+41. Kg1 Nxg542. Qb8+ Kg743. Qe5+ Kh644. Qf4 Qd1+45. Kh2

45. Rf1 Qd4+

45... Qd4The long diagonal is secured; the king may run away from the pin.46. b4 Kg747. Qc7+ Kh848. Qc8+ Rg849. Qxf5 Nf3+50. Kh3 Qd60-1

What Are The Chances?

As he said himself in an interview on April 10, Nakamura's main task in the Candidates will be to get out of the opening with playable positions. Fortunately for him, he's already demonstrated that ability at the Grand Prix, scoring +6 -1 =13 in classical there. Nakamura also "needs" to win this tournament the least of anyone, which could make the event easier on him and let him just play his game. Nakamura was truly a wildcard in the Grand Prix (selected as the FIDE president's nominee), and he effectively is once again now.

Teimour Radjabov

Radjabov didn't exactly qualify for the 2022 Candidates at all; he qualified for the 2020 Candidates but withdrew because of the coronavirus situation. When that tournament began and then was suspended, FIDE thought it only right to invite Radjabov this

time.

Radjabov took an unintentionally circuitous path here but shouldn't look so pensive once the games begin. Photo: Maria Emelianova/Chess.com.

Radjabov, the oldest player in the field by nine months over Nakamura, also has the longest history in the Candidates, having played in both the 2011 and 2013 editions. His qualification in 2020 was in some ways the surprise of that field (not counting the controversial wildcard selection); he was the second-oldest after GM Alexander Grischuk and at one point, in 2016, Radjabov's rating had dipped from a peak of 2793 all the way down to 2696, but after that he worked his way back and won the 2019 World Cup.

If Radjabov Wins?

Radjabov's most recent run-in with Carlsen was in the 2021 Champions Chess Tour Final, where Radjabov won the final but didn't score enough in earlier events to win the tour, a notably bizarre situation.

Radjabov, Teimour (2747) vs. Carlsen, Magnus (2842)

1-0 Meltwater Champions Chess Tour Finals 2021 Chess.com 02 Oct 2021 Round: 07-04

87654321abcdefgh

Notes by Peter Doggers (2021).1. d4 g6Needing to win, Carlsen avoids the mainline theory.2. e4 d63. Nf3 Nf64. Nc3 Bg75. Be2 O-O6. O-O a67. a4This is an important prophylactical move that prevents ...b7-b5.7... Nc68. Be3 b6Instead of preparing the main idea, ...e7-e5, which could help White simplify the game, Black chooses to keep the tension.9. d5 Nb810. Nd4 Bb711. f3 c612. dxc6 Nxc613. Nxc6 Bxc614. Qd2Now, the players have ended in a pawn structure similar to the one in the Dragon Sicilian. White keeps everything under control.14... Re815. Rfd1 Nd716. Bd4 Bf8 ?!Of course, Carlsen would have never played this move in a normal game, but this time he tries to keep the pieces, as he needs to win.17. Bc4 e618. Bf1 Qc719. Be3 Qb720. b4Finally, White starts making progress.20... b521. axb5 axb522. Bf2 h523. Ra5 !The pawn on b5 is extremely weak.23... Rxa524. bxa5 Ra8How to continue now as White?25. Nxb5 d5

25... Bxb526. Rb1wins for White due to the pin.

26. Nd4 Nf627. a6 Qc7 ??Find a forced win.28. Qc3Black resigned as he's losing a piece.1-0

Radjabov is probably the hardest player in the field to imagine Magnus getting all amped up to play. The good news for Carlsen in all of this is he at no point can just give away his title to the Candidates winner; FIDE provisions indicate that the top two finishers would play a match for the world championship if the titleholder does not defend. So his interpretation of whether an individual player "deserves" the title is not relevant; someone else could always take care of them.

What Are The Chances?

Radjabov has received criticism for a draw-heavy playing style that doesn't risk rating points. As GM Anish Giri can tell you, however, making too many draws in a Candidates won't win the tournament and can lead to persistent preconceptions about your play in the future. Radjabov will need some fighting games to make a dent in this field.

He also faces the added complication of having qualified for this event far earlier than anyone—in effect, about three years before the tournament—so it is difficult to say what kind of form he will be in. Perhaps that is why he, like Rapport, is playing in Norway Chess mere days before the Candidates begins. On the flip side, Radjabov has had more time than anyone to prepare, announced as a participant back in March of 2021.

Jan-Krzysztof Duda

Although the lowest-rated player in the field, by just three points to Radjabov, Duda is also the only one to be here on account of already beating Carlsen. Duda accomplished that in the semifinals of the 2021 World Cup, before claiming the entire tournament over Karjakin in the