IX Workshop (UPF 2023)

The scarce existing longitudinal analyses of populism have focused on the evolution and volatility of support for populist parties, whose stability is contested. However, this interest has not been paralleled by an interest in the evolution and stability of populist attitudes, only recent studies are relating them to other political attitudes and do not clarify their stability or fluctuation. Recent attitude studies contradict the general affirmation of them tending to be stable, as on many occasions they depend on the predictor of attitude under study or on the measures used. This paper adopts a novel longitudinal approach to the study of populist attitudes. Drawing on the Spanish panel POLAT (2014-2022) these changes are analysed in a descriptive fashion through double fixed-effects models. The results indicate that, relative to other relevant political attitudes, populist attitudes tend to change in the short-run. However, there are relevant differences in the patterns of change across the different components of populist attitudes (anti-elitism, Manicheism, and people-centrism). Moreover, some of these changes can be related to the profound changes in the Spanish political landscape during the 2014-2022 period. These results can shed light on some of the contradictory findings of previous analyses of populist attitudes, and they can inform the ongoing debate about the (in) stability of these attitudes.

This paper analyzes the impact of the Abstract Review (Recurso de Inconstitucionalidad) mechanism on the legislative process. The objective is to investigate the extent to which Abstract Review contributes to moderating the government's policy positions and under what circumstances. Theoretical models posit that much of the effect of having a constitutional court is anticipatory, with some of these anticipatory effects tied to the formalities of the judicial process. However, constitutional courts, as we know, are situated outside the judicial power due to their links and implications on political power and the nature of the issues they rule on. Moreover, we are aware that certain political dynamics are reflected in their rulings. Consequently, formal models on the separation of powers have described politically motivated behaviors to avoid the court. This paper contributes to the literature by empirically analyzing these dynamics. Using data on legislative amendments and policy shifts, I gauge the influence of the court's ideology on the government's policy modifications within the Spanish context. The preliminary results indicate that the government is more likely to accommodate opposition demands when faced with a potential unfavorable court. Ultimately, this research adds to the debate on the role that constitutional courts play as checks and balances within a democracy.

This article seeks to elucidate the relationship between the decentralization of competencies to regions or sub-state units and the propensity of citizens to advocate for increased decentralization. Focusing on the specific case of Spain and its autonomous communities, this research aims to discern the effects of transferring educational competencies as, within a modernist and constructivist framework, education is recognized as a pivotal institutional tool in the construction of imagined communities. Using individual-level data, this investigation undertakes a comparative analysis of preferences among different cohorts, considering exposure to a decentralized educational system. The findings shed light on the nuanced ways in which educational decentralization influences citizens’ attitudes towards broader regional autonomy, providing valuable insights for policymakers and scholars in the field of political decentralization.

Party leaders wield considerable influence as some of the most powerful political figures within parliamentary democracies. In pursuit of the party’s objectives, they possess significant powers related to the day-to-day management of the party organization, formulation of policy preferences, and selection of candidates for public office. Simultaneously, parties hold leaders accountable for their actions, replacing them when their performance tarnishes the party’s opportunities of success. Previous studies on the factors influencing party leaders' survival have primarily focused on stable institutional mechanisms that govern the relationship between the party leader and the party's decision-makers, as well as the leader's electoral performance. However, party insiders often rely on other indicators to assess a leader's potential success. We propose that opinion polls can serve as one such indicator. Specifically, we suggest that party leaders are more likely to face replacement when their party's performance in public opinion polls is poor. Moreover, we anticipate that the role of polls is moderated by intra-party institutions. Empirically, we employ survival analysis to test the effect of opinion polling on party leaders’ survival in a sample of over 280 party leaders from 48 political parties in 8 parliamentary democracies since 1950.