Trade Insights 

☕ 1. Export Revenue & Volume (2024/25 Fiscal Year)

• Ethiopia earned a record $2.65 billion from coffee exports in the year ending July 7, 2025. That’s a significant jump from last year’s ~ $1.4 billion Mr Bean Coffee+15Comunicaffe International+15Sustainable Harvest+15Mr Bean Coffee.

• Export volume soared to approximately 469,000 tonnes, far exceeding the initial target of 326,000 tonnes Comunicaffe International+2Mr Bean Coffee+2Facebook+2.
  
  

• In the first nine months alone (Sept–May), the country posted $1.5 billion on 299,600 tonnes exported Comunicaffe International.
  
  

• Over the past 10 months, revenue reached $1.87 billion on 354,300 tonnes exported — a 142% increase compared to the previous year Africanews+1Africa News Agency+1.

📊 2. Outlook for This Year (2025/26)

• Coffee export volume is forecast at 7.8 million 60‑kg bags (~468,000 tonnes), an 11.4% rise from 2023/24 USDA Apps+1Daily Coffee News by Roast Magazine+1.

• USDA projects harvest of 694,000 tonnes (11.56 million bags) in 2025/26 — a 9% increase from last season Ecofin Agency.

• ECTA aims to expand exports by reaching 20 new countries this fiscal year, targeting markets in China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Germany, and Italy to offset recent US tariffs Southern African Times+1Birr Metrics+1.

📉 3. Global & Local Coffee Prices

• On July 18, 2025, the ICE Arabica coffee price stood at $303.60/lb, down about 1.2% from the previous day but still up ~27% over the past month Trading Economics.

• Locally, retail coffee prices in Ethiopian cities currently range between $4.36–$6.00 per kg (~ETB 236–326/kg) USDA Apps+3Selina Wamucii+3Wikipedia+3.

• UN FAO reports coffee bean prices rose ~18% in Ethiopia over the past year, compared to 70% rises in global benchmarks — price shock takes ~12 months to reach consumers in the EU and US Reuters.

📰 5. Recent Government & Policy News

• Government Growth Plan: The National Budget for 2025/26 includes expanded input support and irrigation for key exports — including coffee — aimed at increasing supply and export volumes Welcome to Fana Media Corporation S.C.

• Securities Market Launch: The newly launched Ethiopian Securities Exchange (January 2025) marks a milestone in economic liberalization and could attract private investment into agribusiness sectors like coffee Wikipedia.

🔎 TL;DR:

Ethiopia's coffee exports are thriving—record-breaking $2.65 billion on ~469,000 t — backed by reforms in production, pricing, and market access. Though facing US tariffs and EU regulations, the government is strategically diversifying markets and strengthening infrastructure. Coffee prices are elevated globally, but local prices remain competitive. The outlook for 2025/26 is robust, with projected growth and supportive policies.

Key Challenges Facing the Coffee Trading Industry

While coffee remains one of the most traded commodities globally, the industry is facing a complex set of challenges beyond just rising prices. These hurdles demand strategic adaptation and innovation from producers, exporters, and traders alike.

1. Intensifying Global Competition
   The global popularity of coffee has opened the door to lucrative opportunities, attracting a wide array of players into the market—from small-scale roasters to multinational corporations. As a result, the market has become increasingly saturated. This intense competition has driven down margins, raised marketing costs, and increased the pressure on suppliers to differentiate through quality, traceability, and sustainability.

2. Climate Change and Agricultural Disruption
   Coffee cultivation is highly sensitive to environmental conditions. Climate change—manifesting in irregular rainfall, rising temperatures, and increased pest and disease outbreaks—is significantly impacting coffee-growing regions. Traditional high-altitude areas may become less viable, while new regions may emerge as alternative growing zones. This transition presents challenges in terms of infrastructure, local expertise, and long-term planning for both growers and buyers.

3. Supply Chain Instability and Volatility
   Climate-related disruptions, coupled with geopolitical tensions and transportation bottlenecks, have made the global coffee supply increasingly volatile. In recent years, this has led to sharp fluctuations in prices and shipping costs. Such unpredictability complicates procurement strategies, financial planning, and contract negotiations, particularly for small- and medium-sized traders.

4. Ethical and Sustainability Pressures
   Consumer awareness around ethical sourcing continues to grow, placing pressure on the industry to uphold fair labor practices and sustainable farming. However, many smallholder farmers—who produce over 70% of the world’s coffee—still face poverty, limited access to credit, and lack of bargaining power. While certifications like Fair Trade, Rainforest Alliance, and Organic are steps in the right direction, they are not always accessible or sufficient to ensure long-term farmer sustainability.

5. Rising Production and Operating Costs
   Labor, fertilizer, and logistics costs have all risen sharply, placing further strain on margins across the supply chain. Traders must navigate not only price fluctuations but also the rising cost of maintaining quality and certification standards. Meanwhile, importers must balance consumer demand for premium coffee with pricing that remains competitive in a crowded marketplace.

☕ Grow Beyond the Challenges with Ayuda Trade

The global coffee market is thriving — valued at over $126 billion in 2023 and projected to exceed $158 billion by 2028 (Statista). Even amidst climate change, inflation, and supply disruptions, demand continues to surge.

Consumers today demand more than just coffee. They want quality, sustainability, transparency, and convenience — and to meet those expectations, you need more than just beans.

You need the right partner.

🌍 Why the Coffee Market Keeps Rising

📈 Market Growth

Coffee consumption is at an all-time high, with over 170 million 60-kg bags consumed globally in 2023 (ICO). Specialty coffee and premium segments are driving much of this growth.

☕ Specialty & RTD Boom

From third-wave cafes to ready-to-drink products, demand is exploding — particularly among Gen Z and millennials seeking quality and convenience.

🛒 Digital & Direct

E-commerce and subscription models continue reshaping the market. The shift toward online sales and direct-to-consumer experiences is creating new, scalable opportunities.

🌱 Cultural Shift

Coffee culture has expanded globally. Brands like Starbucks and Costa Coffee — along with local shops — are transforming coffee from a product into a lifestyle.

✨ The Result? Your Glow Up in the Market

With Ayuda Trade, you're not just keeping pace with the evolving coffee industry —

you're leading it.

Our clients experience:

📊 Increased productivity and operational efficiency

🌟 Stronger brand recognition in competitive markets

🚀 Faster growth through strategic partnerships and insights

📌 Ready to turn global challenges into your competitive advantage?

Explore our products and services today — and let Ayuda Trade help you build your brand, your business, and your legacy in the booming coffee market.

🌱 Ethiopia Eyes Record Harvest

Ethiopia’s coffee sector remains strong, with the country forecasted to produce 11.6 million 60-kg bags this year — a 9% increase over the previous harvest. The rise is attributed to favorable conditions in key coffee-growing zones. However, experts warn that climate variability, including rising temperatures and erratic rainfall, could pose long-term risks.

🌍 Vietnam Surplus Pressures Robusta Market

In contrast, robusta prices remain under pressure due to record inventory levels in Vietnam. The market expects short-term softness unless export volumes increase or demand spikes in emerging markets.