Work in progress

Fiscal Sustainability under Natural Resource Depletion and Population Aging

Highlights:

• Resource rich economies face aging and resource depletion.

• Resource revenues finance a substantial share of life cycle deficits.

• 3-year increase in the retirement age reduces oil financed transfers by 9.6%.

• 10% increase in labor productivity lowers fiscal imbalance by 23.7%.

• Economic diversification improves resilience to demographic aging.

Equal Access, Equal Earnings?

Regional Returns to Russia’s Unified State Exam

Highlights:

• Estimates are consistent with earnings differences of 4-8% for USE-exposed cohorts.

• The share of exposed cohorts in professional or managerial employment rises from 21% to 26–28%, while degree attainment does not measurably change.

• We find no statistically distinguishable evidence that the estimated earnings difference is concentrated in Moscow and St.Petersburg.

• Differences by maternal education are suggestive rather than conclusive.