Work in progress

co-authored with Mehmet Ugur (revised/resubmitted to RIBAF)

Highlights:

• Financial distress exhibits strong recurrence and structured dependence.

• Prior distress history significantly improves prediction accuracy.

• Frailty models provide the best overall model fit.

• Agency-theoretic models outperform ad hoc specifications.

• Leverage and competition have non-linear effects on distress risk.

co-authored with Ruslan Aliyev and Ali Gunes

Highlights:

• Resource rich economies face aging and resource depletion.

• Resource revenues finance a substantial share of life cycle deficits.

• 3-year increase in the retirement age reduces oil financed transfers by 9.6%.

• 10% increase in labor productivity lowers fiscal imbalance by 23.7%.

• Economic diversification improves resilience to demographic aging.

1. Centralized exams contributed to an 8% increase in earnings.
2. The reform improved skill-based matching and expanded access to elite universities.
3. Elite universities in large cities attracted more talented students from other major cities.
4. Gender, marital status, ethnicity, and parental education signi cantly a ect earnings.
5. Parental education a ects income: both in large cities, mother's in urban areas, father's in rural.

Figure: Average monthly salary by diffrent group in Russia, 1994-2020

1. The gaps between regions in Ukraine have widened last two decades.
2. The regional disparities occur in terms of natural resources and production.
3. IDPs boost low-skill labor supply but also cause shortages in key sectors.
4. Inflows strain housing, drive up rents, and overload urban infrastructure
5. The potential of the Western part of Ukraine has not been used appropriately.

Figure: Recorded IDP Arrivals in Ukraine, 2022-2024