Work in progress

co-authored with Mehmet Ugur

1. Recurrent financial distress may be driven by structured dependence rather than shared frailty.
2. The stratified gap-time model offers the best fit among structured dependence models.
3. Gap-time models accurately capture both entry into and recovery from financial distress.
4. An agency-theoretic, parsimonious model outperforms complex ad hoc alternatives.
5. Leverage and competition exhibit non-linear effects in distress modeling.

Figure: Kaplan -Meiler Survival Estimates

co-authored with Ruslan Aliyev and Ali Gunesh

1. Resource-rich economies face challenges from resource dependence and population aging.
2. Resource revenues drive high life cycle deficits, projected to rise in the future.
3. Productivity growth and later retirement can boost labor income and reduce life cycle deficits.
4. Consumption smoothing is recommended to improve resource allocation.
5. Public transfer inflows are large larger for older age groups.

Figure: Projected Life Cycle Deficit in Azerbaijan by 2050

1. Centralized exams contributed to an 8% increase in earnings.
2. The reform improved skill-based matching and expanded access to elite universities.
3. Elite universities in large cities attracted more talented students from other major cities.
4. Gender, marital status, ethnicity, and parental education signi cantly a ect earnings.
5. Parental education a ects income: both in large cities, mother's in urban areas, father's in rural.

Figure: Average monthly salary by diffrent group in Russia, 1994-2020

1. The gaps between regions in Ukraine have widened last two decades.
2. The regional disparities occur in terms of natural resources and production.
3. IDPs boost low-skill labor supply but also cause shortages in key sectors.
4. Inflows strain housing, drive up rents, and overload urban infrastructure
5. The potential of the Western part of Ukraine has not been used appropriately.

Figure: Recorded IDP Arrivals in Ukraine, 2022-2024