Embedded Files
Highlights
Recurrent financial distress is primarily driven by structured dependence rather than frailty.
Conditioning on prior distress history markedly improves model fit and prediction.
Frailty models capturing unobserved structural dependence deliver the best model performance.
Agency-theoretic, parsimonious models outperform ad hoc specifications.
Leverage and competition exert robust non-linear effects on distress risk.
Ugur, M., & Zeynalov, A. (2026). Modeling recurrent financial distress: A survival analysis of structured dependence. Research in International Business and Finance, 103635.
Highlights
Adopting an imitation-based strategy at the early stage leads countries to grow faster.
Countries have threshold for transitioning to innovation-based strategies.
Certain developing countries might be nearing the threshold of the middle-income trap.
Institutional governance in technological adaptation depends on the development stage.
While new innovative frontrunners emerged, the global technological gap widened over time.
Zeynalov, A. (2025). Distance to frontier: From imitation to innovation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 217, 124170.
Determinants of the choice of exchange rate regime in oil-exporting countries
(with Ruslan Aliyev)
Highlights
Oil-exporting countries tend to adopt fixed exchange rates as a nominal anchor and stabilizer.
High output volatility makes it more difficult for oil-exporting countries to adopt fixed exchange rates.
Procyclical fiscal policies reduce the likelihood of fixed exchange rate regimes in oil-exporting countries.
Increased government spending and greater central bank independence promote the adoption of fixed exchange rates in oil-exporting countries.
Aliyev, R., & Zeynalov, A. (2025). Determinants of the choice of exchange rate regime in oil-exporting countries. Economic Systems, 49(2), 101269.
(with Mehmet Ugur and Edna Solomon)
Highlights
Leverage and competition are discipline devices that can reduce agency conflicts.
The discipline effect of leverage is due to long-term rather than short-term debt.
Leverage and competition have non-linear effects on financial distress.
There is an optimal capital structure that minimises financial distress.
The optimal level of leverage is higher in less competitive industries.
Ugur, M., Solomon, E., & Zeynalov, A. (2022). Leverage, competition and financial distress hazard: Implications for capital structure in the presence of agency costs. Economic modelling, 108, 105740.
Reassessment of the Fiscal Multiplier in Developing Countries: Regime-Switching Model (with Michal Hlavacek and Ilgar Ismayilov)
Highlights
Fiscal policy in developing countries is more effective than linear models suggest.
Government spending boosts output most when it starts at the onset of recovery.
In recovery, fiscal stimulus is twice as effective in developing countries.
Regime-specific multipliers can improve macroeconomic forecasts in developing countries.
Underestimated multipliers risk unachievable fiscal targets in developing countries.
Hlaváček, M., Ismayilov, I., & Zeynalov, A. (2021). Reassessment of the fiscal multiplier in developing countries: Regime-switching model. CESifo Economic Studies, 67(4), 440-462.
Forecasting tourist arrivals: Google Trends meets mixed-frequency data
(with Tomas Havranek)
Highlights
Google Trends data improve the accuracy of tourism demand forecasts.
Google searches predict tourist arrivals up to two months and one week ahead.
Weekly Google Trends data improve forecasts of monthly tourist arrivals.
MIDAS models combine data of different frequencies in one forecast.
Search data give policymakers and tourism businesses timely information.
Havranek, T., & Zeynalov, A. (2021). Forecasting tourist arrivals: Google Trends meets mixed-frequency data. Tourism Economics, 27(1), 129-148.
Page updated
Google Sites
Report abuse