RESEARCh
RESEARCh
with Shubhdeep Deb, Jan Eeckhout and Larry Warren
Econometrica. Vol 92 (3), 603-636, May 2024. DOI. Draft
Comments: Gianluca Violante, John Van Reenan, Response
with Shubhdeep Deb, Jan Eeckhout and Larry Warren
Journal of the European Economic Association. 20 (6), 2181-2225, December 2022. DOI. Draft.
with Nicolò Dalvit and Joanne Tan
Draft | [Updated Draft!]
Abstract: I estimate the effect of automation on labour market power and concentration using French administrative data and a staggered DiD design. Automation increased concentration by 14% whilst reducing wage markdowns by 3%, with intensifying effects over time. To quantify the aggregate implications, I develop a general equilibrium model with oligopsonistic labour markets, endogenous automation adoption, and firm entry. Counterfactual experiments reveal that automation-induced changes in labour market power erode approximately 17% of automation's potential welfare gains. Decomposition reveals that 71% of welfare losses stem from increased markdown dispersion---reflecting deteriorating allocative efficiency---whilst 29% arise from shifts in average markdowns.
Presented at: City, University of London, Kent-BoE-Bristol Workshop, E1 Quantitative Macro Workshop at Queen Mary, Junior Research Day at College de France, Esade Macro Meetings, BCAM Workshop at Birkbeck, Macroeconomic Workshop - Surrey, BSE Summer Forum, SED, EEA-ESEM, Mannheim Quantitative Macro, IFS-UCL-IoE Human Capital and Labour Markets Seminar
Draft | [Submitted]
I was honored with the "Best Young Labor Economist" prize by the European Association of Labour Economist for this paper.
A small Twitter thread on the paper!
with Zsofia Barany and Christian Siegal
Slides | [Draft coming soon]
Does automation drive declining labour share? We outline a general framework where automation substitutes routine tasks and derive testable predictions linking firms' routine employment shares to labour share changes and reallocation. Using French firm-level data from 1994-2019, we test and reject the key predictions of the framework. We conclude that automation is not the main driver of labour share dynamics in France.
Automation boosts productivity yet increases firms' labour market power, generating welfare losses. To what extent can collective bargaining and unions reduce these losses?
Lo Bello and Pesaresi