Publications

• Poilly, C., & Tripier, F. (2025). Trade Policy Uncertainty and the Labor Market: State-Level Evidence. AEA Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 115, pp. 172-176.

• Poilly, C., & Tripier, F. (2025). Regional Trade Policy Uncertainty. Journal of International Economics,  vol. 155. 

• Dibiasi, A., Mikosch, H., & Sarferaz, S. (2025). Uncertainty Shocks, Adjustment Costs and Firm Beliefs: Evidence From a Representative Survey. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 17(3), 36-73.   

• Bermpei, T. & Ferrara, L. & Karadimitropoulou, A. & Triantafyllou, A. (2024). Commodity currencies revisited: The role of global commodity price uncertainty. Journal of International Money and Finance, 145, 103096 . 

• Ferrara, L. & Karadimitropoulou, A. & Triantafyllou, A. (2024). Oil jump tail risk as a driver of inflation dynamics. Journal of Commodity Markets, Volume 36 (C).

• Dibiasi, A., & Sarferaz, S. (2023). Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty: A cross-country analysis. European Economic Review, 104383

• Belianska, A. & Eyquem, A. & Poilly, C. (2023). On Portfolio Frictions, Asset Returns and Volatility. European Economic Review, 160, 104623

• Ferrara L., and Yapi J. (2022). Measuring exchange rate risks during periods of uncertainty. International Economics. Volume 170, August 2022, Pages 202-212.

• Ortmans A. & Tripier F. (2021). COVID-induced sovereign risk in the euro area: When did the ECB stop the spread?, European Economic Review, 137, 2021.

• [in French] Poilly, C., & Tripier, F. (2023). Incertitude sur la politique commerciale et cycle économique. Revue Française d'Economie, July 2023, p.183-218.

Working Papers

• Dibiasi A., Eichenauer, V., Gurtner, R., & Sturm J.E., 2025, Announcement effects of fiscal policy: How firms update expectations in real time, mimeo.

• Dibiasi A., & Erhardt K., 2025, Young firms under pressure: Heterogeneous investment responses to a trade shock, CESifo Working Paper No. 12098.

• Gaudio Saverio F. & Poilly C., 2025. The Variety-Effect Multiplier : On the transmission of uncertainty shocks. CEPR discussion paper 49930.

• Antonova A., & Matvieiev, M., Poilly C., 2025. Macroeconomic Shocks in the Fog: The Role of Endogenous Uncertainty. AMSE Working Paper 202538.

• Ines Mourelon, 2024. Macroeconomic and Environmental Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty: A Sectoral Reallocation Perspective. 

•  A. Dibiasi. Business-cycle Dependent Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: The Role of Capital Irreversibility. SSRN Working Paper. R&R Macroeconomic Dynamics.

• Ferrara L., Karadimitropoulou A., Triantafyllou, A. 2022. Commodity price uncertainty comovement: Does it matter for global economic growth?. CAMA Working Papers 2022-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

• Lhuissier S., Tripier F., 2022. Measuring Cyber Risk. Download Cyber risk indicators and Read the Post on the Banque de France's Blog.

• S. Lhuissier, A. Ortmans & F. Tripier (2022). The Risk of Inflation Dispersion in the Euro Area. CEPREMAP, Document de travail (Docweb) n°2212

Press

• L'incertitude sur la politique commerciale : une menace pour l'emploi, Céline Poilly, Fabien Tripier, Note de l'i-MIP 2025-07, 2025.

• Quelles sont les incertitudes autour du projet de loi de finances 2024 ?, François Langot, Selma Malmberg, Fabien Tripier, Jean-Olivier Hairault, Note de l'Observatoire de macroéconomie 2023-03, CEPREMAP, 2023.

• Le risque d'inflation en France et en Allemagne : le rôle des chaînes de valeur, Aymeric Ortmans, Fabien Tripier, Note de l'Observatoire de macroéconomie 2022-4, CEPREMAP, 2022.