ANR DEMUR

The DEMUR Project

Over the last years, uncertainty has become a major challenge that private and public decision makers had to deal with. This research project seeks to analyse decision making under aggregate uncertainty, with a special focus on labour market outcomes. Precisely, we will highlight the macroeconomic consequences of aggregate uncertainty through the lens of the heterogeneous behaviour of agents. 

To reach this objective, this research project focuses on three transmission channels of uncertainty, which altogether covers the primary economic linkages between individual agents. The first task focuses on labour market adjustments, since firms and households usually have incentives to adjust labour market decisions in order to self-ensure against uncertainty. Motivated by the growing trend of worldwide interconnectedness over the last decades, the second task looks at the international market dimension of uncertainty. Finally, the third task is interested in some unexplored links between uncertainty and financial markets, the latter being strong amplification channels of uncertainty. 

Dates: December 31st 2020 to December 31st 2025