“Effects of conflicts on intimate partner violence: Evidence from Mexico” (2024)
Young Researcher Prize won at the 3rd Gender and Economics Workshop (Université du Luxembourg)
Can public violence spill over to intimate partner violence (IPV) and if so, through which channels? This paper uses the unexpected and geographically heterogeneous rise in drug-related violence occurring in Mexico since December 2006 to analyze whether living in a municipality increasingly exposed to violent crime changes a household’s internal use of violence. Combining georeferenced conflict data with survey data on household dynamics, I use two difference-in-differences methodologies to show that a rise in conflict-related homicides leads to a significant increase in the share of women experiencing both acts and threats of physical violence by their male partners. This trend is found in parallel to an average rise in women’s tolerance for partner abuse, and a drop in divorces on grounds of domestic violence in those affected municipalities. Furthermore, IPV growth is mostly found amongst households where the woman has low bargaining power. Thus, the conflict effect on IPV is associated with a rising tolerance for violence, which might become a new instrument for the male partner to get more decision-making power, especially when the woman’s outside options seem hampered.
“Measuring the prevalence of adult sexual violence in Ireland: A review of Irish and international literature” with E. Kelly, D. Agostinelli, E. Smyth & A. Nolan. ESRI Survey and Statistical Report Series 131
Sexual violence, and gender-based violence more generally, is a pervasive global problem. In Ireland, the recently established statutory agency Cuan co-ordinates and drives the implementation of Zero Tolerance, the third national strategy for domestic, sexual and gender-based violence. In this context, Cuan and the Economic and Social Research Institute have established a joint research programme to provide evidence on the topic. This is the first report of the programme. It provides an overview of the national and international data and research on adult sexual violence, with a particular focus on identifying the definitional and measurement issues that need to be considered when making comparisons of prevalence and incidence rates over time and between countries.
“Persistent Income Poverty and Deprivation in Ireland” with B. Maître. Social Inclusion Thematic Report 12
This paper analyzes trends in the persistence of income poverty and deprivation in Ireland from 2015 to 2023, using data from the Irish Survey on Income and Living Conditions. It examines the extent of poverty persistence, the relationship between income poverty and deprivation, and identifies social groups most vulnerable to long-term poverty. The study explores the dynamics of poverty transitions, including entry, exit, and duration. It also investigates the role of social policies, such as cash transfers and active labor market policies, in mitigating persistent poverty, with a particular focus on vulnerable groups.
“Child Related Leave: Usage and Implications for Gender Equality” with C. Keane, H. Russell, F. McGinnity & R. O'Shea. Jointly-published Reports 12
This report investigates the factors influencing the take-up of child-related leave in Ireland, focusing on Paternity and Parent's Leave, as well as the duration of paid and unpaid Maternity Leave. Despite efforts to address gender pay gaps, disparities persist, particularly after childbirth, due to lower female participation and higher rates of part-time work. While Ireland’s parental leave policies are comparable to other EU countries, low replacement rates and employer top-ups impact take-up, especially among fathers. Using newly available administrative data, the study examines the role of policy, workplace norms, and social attitudes in shaping leave behaviors, including a survey experiment on gender norms and policy preferences.
"Monitoring report on integration 2024” with F. McGinnity, E. Carron-Kee, C. Dalton, M. Darmody, G. Hingre, K. Murphy & E. Quinn. Jointly-published Reports 11
This report is the ninth in a series of monitoring reports on integration that began in 2011. It considers how migrants – generally defined as those born outside the State – fare relative to the Irish-born population across four key life domains: employment, education, social inclusion and active citizenship. The report also provides updates on migration and integration policy. Integration indicators are based on nationally representative survey data for the latest available time points, supplemented with administrative statistics on forced migrants.
“Child poverty on the island of Ireland” with B. Maître & H. Russell. ESRI Research Series 199
This report examines child poverty on the island of Ireland, focusing on income poverty and material deprivation across both Ireland and Northern Ireland. Despite both regions seeing high child poverty rates, Ireland experienced more consistent reductions in income poverty, while Northern Ireland's rates fluctuated. However, Ireland consistently had higher material deprivation, reflecting challenges in converting income into an adequate standard of living. The report identifies key risk factors for child poverty, such as family composition, disability, and labour market exclusion, with lone-parent households and larger families being particularly vulnerable. Stakeholder consultations emphasize the importance of policy measures like child benefits and welfare support. Recommendations include enhancing welfare systems, addressing in-work poverty, and improving service provision in education and early childhood care. Both regions highlight the need for coordinated policy action to effectively reduce child poverty and improve living standards for vulnerable children across the island.
“Understanding attitudes to Travellers and Roma in Ireland” with E. Carron-Kee & F. McGinnity. Jointly-published Reports 9
Travellers and Roma are two of the most disadvantaged groups in Irish society, facing high unemployment rates, poor health, and low educational attainment relative to the white Irish majority. A 2023 survey (n=3,008) explored public attitudes towards these groups. It reveals that Travellers and Roma experience the highest levels of prejudice of any ethnic group, in terms of people's comfort in having them as a neighbour, in a relationship with their child, and at school with their child. A factor analysis finds that while attitudes to Roma are in some cases associated with attitudes to a broader range of ethnic and national groups, this is not the case for Travellers, who are more strongly related to attitudes to extremely marginalized groups - those with substance abuse issues and criminal records. Overall, findings suggest that anti-Traveller and anti-Roma prejudice are somewhat distinct from other forms of prejudice in Ireland.
“Minimum Essential Standards of Living, poverty and deprivation in Ireland” (2024) with B. Maître. Social Inclusion Technical Paper 12
In this paper, we use the Vincentian MESL Research Centre’s measure of household expenditure needs and explore the relationship between that indicator and household income, dependence on social transfers, poverty measures, and financial stress. Using the MESL thresholds for essential expenditure needs, which are calculated for a wide range of household types, the paper explores: 1) What is the overlap between household income, income poverty and living under one’s basic expenditure needs? And 2) Which groups of the population are least likely to reach a decent standard of living, and which groups living below their expenditure needs are not identified as being in poverty on official measures? Using data from the Survey on Income and Living Conditions, we find that only a relatively small share of households do not meet their expenditure needs. However, this share is significantly higher for groups that are vulnerable to poverty including children, tenants, lone parents, and single working age adults. For those that are not meeting their expenditure needs, their level of dependence to social transfers is very high. This study thus confirms the critical role played by social welfare income to guarantee a decent standard of living to vulnerable households and families that are highly dependent to social transfers.
“The equality impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Irish labour market” (2024) with F. McGinnity & H. Russell. Jointly-published Reports 6
This paper examines the impact of COVID-19 on Ireland’s labour market, with a focus on structurally vulnerable groups. Using Labour Force Survey and SILC data, we compare employment outcomes in 2019 and 2022 by gender, age, disability, education, and family status. Many pre-pandemic inequalities persisted: women, lone parents, families with children, and less educated individuals continued to face poorer employment opportunities and conditions. Some improvements emerged for younger and disabled people, partly linked to remote work. However, access to remote work remained uneven, with rural residents and the least educated benefiting the least from this shift.
“The global economic burden of violent conflict” (2022) with O. de Grot, C. Bozzoli & T. Brück. Journal of Peace Research 59(2), 259-276.
Calculating the consequences of global public bads such as climate change or pandemics helps uncover the scale, distribution and structure of their economic burdens. As violent conflict affects billions of people worldwide, whether directly or indirectly, this article sets out to estimate its global macro-economic repercussions. Using a novel methodology that accounts for multiple dimensions of war, the article finds that, in the absence of violent conflict since 1970, the level of global GDP in 2014 would have been, on average, 12% higher. When disaggregating these results by conflict type, civil conflicts are estimated to have been the costliest by far. Income growth is found to be altered up to four years following the end of a conflict, although the direction of this relationship depends on the intensity and type of conflict. Countries also suffer significantly from fighting in neighbouring countries, thereby showing the importance of mitigating spillovers rapidly. The largest absolute losses associated with violence emanate from Asia, while many high-income economies are found to benefit economically from participating in conflicts on foreign soil. This analysis thus shows that, despite some evidence of a faster post-conflict growth and possible benefits for external participants, violent conflict leads to net global losses that linger long after peace is achieved, reducing the peace dividend. The article concludes by discussing public policy options to strengthen the benefits of peace as a global public good.
“Natural disasters and education” (2020) with T. Heidelk. ECARES Working Paper 2020(05).
It is well established that natural disasters can have a negative effect on human capital accumulation. However, a comparison of the differential impacts of distinct disaster classes is missing. Using census data and information from DesInventar and EMDAT, two large disaster databases, this paper assesses how geological disasters and climatic shocks affect the upper secondary degree attainment of adolescents. The paper focuses on Mexico, given its diverse disaster landscape and lack of obligatory upper secondary education over the observed time period. While all disaster types are found to impede attainment, climatic disasters that are not infrastructure-destructive (e.g. droughts) have the strongest negative effect, decreasing educational expansion by over 40%. The effects seem largely driven by demand-side changes such as increases in school dropouts and fertility, especially for young women. The results may also be influenced by deteriorated parental labor market outcomes. Supply-side effects appear to be solely driven by infrastructure-destructive climatic shocks (e.g. floods). These findings thus call for differential public measures according to specific disaster types and an enhanced attention to climatic events given their potentially stronger impact on younger generations.
“Impact evaluation of the Lumière Project” (2018) with T. Heidelk, J. Jadin, J.C. Muñoz-Mora, R.L. Ngenzebuke & P. Verwimp. UNICEF Evaluation Report.
In rural areas of Burundi, a very small percentage of households have access to the electricity grid, resulting in a high reliance on other sources of energy such as wood, batteries and kerosene. These sources are costly, inefficient, unhealthy, and environmentally harmful. The use of energy is an important indicator of the welfare level of a household, a village, and an entire country. Through the Lumière Project, UNICEF Burundi seeks to contribute to diminishing energy poverty by introducing rechargeable lamps in rural villages where households are not linked to the grid. This is meant to increase the availability of light in the household, reduce costs, improve efficiency, reduce the use of unhealthy energy sources as well as their negative environmental impact. Using a social enterprise model, the intervention aims to leverage the power of the market and create a chain reaction of mutual social and economic impacts. Our impact evaluation finds that the Lumière project increased welfare, which was measured through consumption, by around 14.5% in the collines (localities) that were treated.
“Socioeconomic patterns amongst victims of adult sexual violence in Ireland” with E. Kelly, E. Smyth & A. Nolan
In order to provide targeted support to victims of adult sexual violence and those at risk of such violence, a better understanding of the patterns of victimisation is needed. This project uses the Irish Sexual Violence Survey to analyse the prevalence of sexual violence among adults, and the main demographic and socioeconomic factors (age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, location, educational attainment, and economic status) that correlate with adult sexual violence experience, to understand how such characteristics vary by type of victimisation experienced.
“Profile of those that disclose experiencing adult sexual violence and use of services in Ireland” with E. Kelly, E. Smyth & A. Nolan
When trying to develop and provide targeted support and services to those affected by adult sexual violence, one needs to have an understanding of who is and who is not likely to disclose such abuse, along with how likely they are to use services, and the reasons why individuals do or do not disclose their experience(s). This project thus uses the Irish Sexual Violence Survey to identify the main demographic and socioeconomic factors that seem to influence who discloses experiencing adult sexual violence, as well as the timing of the disclosure and who they disclose it (police, medical person, family members, etc.).