Research

Job market paper

Effects of conflicts on intimate partner violence: Evidence from Mexico” (2023)  

Can public violence spill over to intimate partner violence (IPV) and if so, through which channels? This paper uses the unexpected and geographically heterogeneous rise in drug-related violence occurring in Mexico since December 2006 to analyze whether living in a municipality increasingly exposed to violent crime changes a household’s internal use of violence. Combining georeferenced conflict data with survey data on household dynamics, I use two difference-in-differences methodologies to show that a rise in conflict-related homicides leads to a significant increase in the share of women experiencing both acts and threats of physical violence by their male partners. This trend is found in parallel to an average rise in women’s tolerance for partner abuse, and a drop in divorces on grounds of domestic violence in those affected municipalities. Furthermore, IPV growth is mostly found amongst households where the woman has low bargaining power. Thus, the conflict effect on IPV is associated with a rising tolerance for violence, which might become a new instrument for the male partner to get more decision-making power, especially when the woman’s outside options seem hampered.

Publications & working papers

The global economic burden of violent conflict” (2022) with O. de Grot, C. Bozzoli & T. Brück. Journal of Peace Research 59(2), 259-276.

Calculating the consequences of global public bads such as climate change or pandemics helps uncover the scale, distribution and structure of their economic burdens. As violent conflict affects billions of people worldwide, whether directly or indirectly, this article sets out to estimate its global macro-economic repercussions. Using a novel methodology that accounts for multiple dimensions of war, the article finds that, in the absence of violent conflict since 1970, the level of global GDP in 2014 would have been, on average, 12% higher. When disaggregating these results by conflict type, civil conflicts are estimated to have been the costliest by far. Income growth is found to be altered up to four years following the end of a conflict, although the direction of this relationship depends on the intensity and type of conflict. Countries also suffer significantly from fighting in neighbouring countries, thereby showing the importance of mitigating spillovers rapidly. The largest absolute losses associated with violence emanate from Asia, while many high-income economies are found to benefit economically from participating in conflicts on foreign soil. This analysis thus shows that, despite some evidence of a faster post-conflict growth and possible benefits for external participants, violent conflict leads to net global losses that linger long after peace is achieved, reducing the peace dividend. The article concludes by discussing public policy options to strengthen the benefits of peace as a global public good.

Natural disasters and education” (2020) with T. Heidelk. ECARES Working Paper 2020(05).

It is well established that natural disasters can have a negative effect on human capital accumulation. However, a comparison of the differential impacts of distinct disaster classes is missing. Using census data and information from DesInventar and EMDAT, two large disaster databases, this paper assesses how geological disasters and climatic shocks affect the upper secondary degree attainment of adolescents. The paper focuses on Mexico, given its diverse disaster landscape and lack of obligatory upper secondary education over the observed time period. While all disaster types are found to impede attainment, climatic disasters that are not infrastructure-destructive (e.g. droughts) have the strongest negative effect, decreasing educational expansion by over 40%. The effects seem largely driven by demand-side changes such as increases in school dropouts and fertility, especially for young women. The results may also be influenced by deteriorated parental labor market outcomes. Supply-side effects appear to be solely driven by infrastructure-destructive climatic shocks (e.g. floods). These findings thus call for differential public measures according to specific disaster types and an enhanced attention to climatic events given their potentially stronger impact on younger generations.

Impact evaluation of the Lumière Project” (2018) with T. Heidelk, J. Jadin, J.C. Muñoz-Mora, R.L. Ngenzebuke & P. Verwimp. UNICEF Evaluation Report.

In rural areas of Burundi, a very small percentage of households have access to the electricity grid, resulting in a high reliance on other sources of energy such as wood, batteries and kerosene. These sources are costly, inefficient, unhealthy, and environmentally harmful. The use of energy is an important indicator of the welfare level of a household, a village, and an entire country. Through the Lumière Project, UNICEF Burundi seeks to contribute to diminishing energy poverty by introducing rechargeable lamps in rural villages where households are not linked to the grid. This is meant to increase the availability of light in the household, reduce costs, improve efficiency, reduce the use of unhealthy energy sources as well as their negative environmental impact. Using a social enterprise model, the intervention aims to leverage the power of the market and create a chain reaction of mutual social and economic impacts. Our impact evaluation finds that the Lumière project increased welfare, which was measured through consumption, by around 14.5% in the collines (localities) that were treated. 

Work in progress

The equality impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Irish labour market” (2024) with F. McGinnity and H. Russell.

The COVID-19 pandemic had profound repercussions on the lives of people in Ireland and around the world. While everyone was impacted, there is abundant evidence that the effects were not equally felt across all members of society. In this paper, we analyse the repercussions of the pandemic on the Irish labour market, focusing on the structurally vulnerable groups, i.e. those particularly at risk of inequality or having their rights denied. We compare the situation of these groups in terms of their employment and the nature of their jobs pre- and post-pandemic (i.e. 2019 vs. 2022) using the Irish Labour Force Survey and the Survey on Income and Living Conditions. We investigate how the labour market conditions evolved following the pandemic, comparing estimates by ability, gender, age, marital status, family status, and educational qualifications. Most inequalities observed in the Irish labour market in 2019 are found to remain by 2022, namely that women, lone parents, families with children, and less educated people have less employment opportunities and worst working conditions than other groups. Working conditions are measured through quantity of work; quality of work; and the possibility to work from home. We find some evidence that labour conditions for younger people as well as for disabled people improved over the observed years, potentially due to a wider use of remote work. While the latter rose for all observed subgroups, the least educated workers, and those residing in rural areas benefitted the least from this growing trend. 

“Minimum Essential Standards of Living, poverty and deprivation in Ireland” (2024) with B. Maître

In this paper, we use the Vincentian MESL Research Centre’s measure of household expenditure needs and explore the relationship between that indicator and household income, dependence on social transfers, poverty measures, and financial stress. Using the MESL thresholds for essential expenditure needs, which are calculated for a wide range of household types, the paper explores: 1) What is the overlap between household income, income poverty and living under one’s basic expenditure needs? And 2) Which groups of the population are least likely to reach a decent standard of living, and which groups living below their expenditure needs are not identified as being in poverty on official measures? Using data from the Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC) and from the Vincentian MESL Research Centre, we find that only a relatively small share of households do not meet their expenditure needs. However, this share is significantly higher for groups that are vulnerable to poverty including children, tenants, lone parents, and single working age adults. For those that are not meeting their expenditure needs, their level of dependence to social transfers is very high. This study thus confirms the critical role played by social welfare income to guarantee a decent standard of living to vulnerable households and families that are highly dependent to social transfers.