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Working Papers
Working Papers
Abstract
This paper examines how production linkages shape regional adjustment to industry shocks. I study this question by comparing hard coal and lignite mining in Germany. Both coal industries operated under the same institutional and macroeconomic conditions but differed markedly in their integration into local supply chains. Using a novel county-level employment dataset for Germany spanning 1849-2024, I estimate an event-study and a shift–share design. I find that hard coal mining, which produces strong upstream and downstream linkages, led to persistent increases in local manufacturing and service employment, particularly in input-supplying and coal-using industries. In contrast, lignite mining, with weaker linkages, led to local industrial decline, consistent with Dutch disease dynamics. I further show that the phase-out of hard coal caused substantial employment losses, particularly in formerly linked sectors. These results highlight the double-edged nature of production linkages: they fuel growth while a key industry is active, but can amplify local decline once it contracts.
Presentations
2025: EHES Conference, Hohenheim (Germany); WEHC, Lund (Sweden)
2024: EC501 LSE Labour Seminar, London (UK)
Industrialization and the return to labor: Evidence from Prussia
with Erik Hornung
CEPR Discussion Paper No. 20810; CESifo Working Paper No. 12237; CAGE Working Paper No. 779; ECONtribute Discussion Paper No. 378
submitted
Abstract
Industrialization boosts aggregate incomes, but its distributional effects remain debated. We study the impact of coal-driven industrialization on unskilled labor incomes using novel panel data on wages from 667 Prussian localities (1800-1879), extended with county-level data through 1914. Exploiting spatial variation in coal proximity in difference-in-differences and event-study designs, we find that wage gains in coal-rich regions emerged once industrialization accelerated in the 1850s and continued to grow until WWI. Evidence from 3,000 household accounts shows that coal proximity raised labor incomes primarily for low-skilled workers, with weaker effects for high-skilled and mechanical occupations. This pattern suggests that industrialization reduced wage inequality by compressing the local skill premium. Mediation analysis indicates that wage gains for unskilled workers were primarily driven by technology adoption and the increasing demand for low-skilled labor, rather than by sectoral change or the spread of the factory system.
Presentations
2025: Workshop in Economic History, Uppsala (Sweden) (by co-author); 1st CEPR Applied Micro-Economic History Workshop, Heidelberg (Germany)
2024: ETRANHET Workshop, Paris (France); EAYE Annual Meeting, Paris (France)
2023: EHA Annual Meeting, Pittsburgh (USA); EHES Conference, Vienna (Austria); FRESH Meeting, Cologne (Germany); EHS Annual Conference, Warwick (UK)
2022: Economic and Social History Seminar, Bonn (Germany)
Work in Progress (selected)
Work in Progress (selected)
Forced Melting Pot: Short-term contact and International Cooperation
with Carola Stapper
Abtract
This paper examines whether short-term exposure to foreign nationals fosters long-term international cooperation. We explore this question within the context of forced labor in Germany during World War II, exploiting that the distribution of foreign workers across German counties was not determined by prior migration patterns or existing ties. Estimating a gravity model, we find that a greater presence of foreign workers of a given nationality increases the number of firm links between German counties and the workers' countries of origin in the postwar period. However, this effect persists only when ties are institutionalized via formal town partnerships. These findings show that even coercive, short-term contact can foster lasting international cooperation when embedded in formal institutions.
Presentations
2025: ASREC, Copenhagen (Denmark); EHES Conference, Hohenheim (Germany) (by co-author)
Firm and Workers in Germany: Linked County-Level Censuses 1882-1939
with Luis Bosshart, Sebastian Till Braun, Richard Franke, Felix Kersting, Matthias Weigand
Publications
Publications
Vulnerable entrepreneurs’ preferences for climate risk management: A discrete choice experiment with micro-enterprises in the Philippines
with Gerald Leppert & Alexandra Köngeter
Journal of Environmental Management 392, 126485.
Abstract
Small enterprises are important contributors to economic development and local employment in low- and middle-income countries. However, they are often highly vulnerable to climate risks and have limited capacity to adapt to them. This study assesses the preferences of micro-enterprises in the Philippines for risk management strategies in response to climate risks and environmental hazards. We conducted a discrete choice experiment with 625 randomly selected entrepreneurs and estimated their preferences for three strategies: improved in formation sharing and early warning; resilient and protective infrastructure; and climate risk insurance. Using a random parameter logit model, we estimate willingness to pay and compensating variation for all combinations of strategies and enterprise profiles. We find that entrepreneurs consider all strategies highly relevant, with climate risk insurance being the most preferred. Entrepreneurs show a higher willingness to pay for combined strategies, indicating a willingness to allocate at least 7.2% of their net income to an integrated set of climate adaptation strategies. Female entrepreneurs are less willing to pay for any strategy, and rural enterprises are less willing to pay for climate risk insurance. This may be explained by lower financial literacy in both cases. Furthermore, we show that participation in climate risk information events is associated with higher preferences for all strategies. We conclude that small enterprises show a significant but heterogeneous willingness to invest in climate risk management. Raising awareness and providing information about climate risks is likely to increase entrepreneurs’ willingness to manage climate risks. Furthermore, expanding the availability of climate risk insurance is crucial to meet the high demand among enterprises. The results of this study can guide policymakers to allocate funds for climate risk management more efficiently and promote needs-based climate adaptation policies to support vulnerable populations.
Policy Work (selected)
Policy Work (selected)
Kontroversen um den Entwicklungshaushalt (German language)
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Nr. 219, 19.9.2024
with Ina Sieberichs
Teaser
Relativ zu den anderen Ressorts muss das Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung die größten Kürzungen im Haushalt 2025 verkraften. Die Unterbringung Geflüchteter in Deutschland ist der größte Kostenpunkt, an zweiter Stelle steht die Klimafinanzierung. Wo bleibt die klassische Hilfe?
Media coverage: FAZ
Taking Responsibility or Prioritizing Donor Interests? An Assessment of Germany’s International Climate Finance (German language)
Wirtschaftsdienst, 103. Jhg., Vol. 2023, Issue 6
with Ina Sieberichs
Abstract
In this paper, we discuss whether Germany fulfills its international commitments in financing climate projects in vulnerable countries of the Global South or whether the financing is rather guided by German interests. To this end, we take a critical look at the fact that climate projects are mainly financed through the development cooperation budget. We also discuss the allocation of funds between climate change adaptation and climate change mitigation. We argue that the budget of development cooperation should be increased, and that international climate finance should focus more on climate adaptation.
Media coverage: Frag den Staat; University of Cologne
Compulsory Insurance Against Damage Caused by Natural Disasters (German language)
Wirtschaftsdienst, 102. Jhg., Vol. 2022, Issue 1
with Christoph Oslislo
Abstract
Like the floods of 2002 and 2013, the consequences of the flood in July 2021 have dramatically demonstrated the need for comprehensive climate adaptation measures in Germany. In this context, the government has for the third time commissioned a working group to examine an insurance obligation against natural hazards. While the basic arguments in the debate are not new, there are still several open questions on the central design and implementation details. We draw attention to the key economic trade-offs in this debate and argue that the frequent criticisms of compulsory insurance are based on specific design assumptions and therefore do not serve as general arguments against an insurance obligation.
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