powers will struggle to facilitate a global recovery—at a time when international coordination is essential—and reinforce resilience against future crises. GRPS respondents signal a challenging geopolitical outlook marked by “interstate relations fracture”, “interstate conflict” and “resource geopolitization”—all forecasted as critical threats to the world in three to five years. A polarized industrial landscape may emerge in the post-pandemic economy As economies emerge from the shock and stimulus of COVID-19, businesses face a shakeout. Existing trends have been given fresh momentum by the crisis: nationally focused agendas to stem economic losses, technological transformation and changes in societal structure—including consumer behaviors, the nature of work and the role of technology both at work and at home. The business risks emanating from these trends have been amplified by the crisis and include stagnation in advanced economies and lost potential in emerging and developing markets, the collapse of small businesses, widening the gaps between major and minor companies and reducing market dynamism, and exacerbation of inequality; making it harder to achieve long-term sustainable development. With governments still deliberating how to pivot away from emergency to recovery, and with companies anticipating a changed business landscape, there are opportunities to invest in smart, clean and inclusive growth that will improve productivity and delivery of sustainable agendas. Better pathways are available to manage risks and enhance resilience Despite some remarkable examples of determination, cooperation and innovation, most countries have struggled with aspects of crisis management during the global pandemic. While it is early to draw definitive lessons, this edition of the Global Risks Report reflects on global preparedness by looking at four key areas of the response to COVID-19: institutional authority, risk financing, information collection and sharing, and equipment and vaccines. It then looks to nationallevel responses—acknowledging the varied starting points for individual countries—and draws lessons from five domains: government decision-making, public communication, health system capabilities, lockdown management and financial assistance to the vulnerable. However, if lessons from this crisis only inform decision-makers how to better prepare for the next pandemic—rather than enhancing risk processes, capabilities and culture—the world will be again planning for the last crisis rather than anticipating the next. The response to COVID-19 offers four governance opportunities to strengthen the overall resilience of countries, businesses and the international community: (1) formulating analytical frameworks that take a holistic and systems-based view of risk impacts; (2) investing in high-profile “risk champions” to encourage national leadership and international co-operation; (3) improving risk communications and combating misinformation; and (4) exploring new forms of public-private partnership on risk preparedness. The Global Risks Report 2021 10 Global Risks Perception Survey 2020 Results REUTERS/GAILLARD Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological Infectious diseases 58.0 Livelihood crises 55.1 Extreme weather events 52.7 Cybersecurity failure 39.0 Digital inequality 38.3 Prolonged stagnation 38.3 Terrorist attacks 37.8 Youth disillusionment 36.4 Social cohesion erosion 35.6 Human environmental damage 35.6 Asset bubble burst 53.3 IT infrastructure breakdown 53.3 Price instability 52.9 Commodity shocks 52.7 Debt crises 52.3 Interstate relations fracture 50.7 Interstate conflict 49.5 Cybersecurity failure 49.0 Tech governance failure 48.1 Resource geopolitization 47.9 Weapons of mass destruction 62.7 State collapse 51.8 Biodiversity loss 51.2 Adverse tech advances 50.2 Natural resource crises 43.9 Social security collapse 43.4 Multilateralism collapse 39.8 Industry collapse 39.7 Climate action failure 38.3 Backlash against science 37.8 Clear and present dangers Short-term risks (0 – 2 years) Knock-on effects Medium-term risks (3 – 5 years) Existential threats Long-term risks (5 – 10 years) FIGURE I Global Risks Horizon When do respondents forecast risks will become a critical threat to the world? % of respondents Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2020 The Global Risks Report 2021 11 FIGURE I Global Risks Horizon Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2020 The Global Risks Report 2021 12 The Global Risks Landscape 2021 How do survey respondents perceive the impact ↑ and likelihood → of global risks? Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2020 Visible area 11 55 55 Methodology Survey respondents were asked to assess the likelihood of the individual global risk on a scale of 1 to 5, 1 representing a risk that is very unlikely to happen and 5 a risk that is very likely to occur over the course of the next ten years. They also assessed the impact of each global risk on a scale of 1 to 5, 1 representing a minimal impact and 5 a catastrophic impact. To ensure legibility, the names of the global risks are abbreviated. Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological 2.Climate action