Neurons receive information through thin, branched structures called dendrites. During development dendrites grow, retract, and branch. Crucially, retraction and branching make it necessary to track whole dendrites rather than only their endpoints. While this is handled implicitly in some existing simulations, we have developed an explicitly path-valued stochastic process for dendrite growth.
The figure to the right shows a simulation of the model at four timepoints. Branch sections are marked as active (solid lines) or inactive (dashed lines) depending on whether their endpoints are free to move. This prevents retracting braches causing the neuron to become disconnected.
Our goal is to use this model alongside neuron imaging data to help understand dendrite development in different environments.
Construction and simulation of a path-valued model of dendrite development. A Nugent, K Page, A Zaikin, L Andreae, 2026, arXiv: 2606.03534 (Under review)
We incorporate age structure in a classical model of continuous opinion formation, studying both a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model and the corresponding mean-field partial differential equation (PDE). We prove the existence of stationary states of the PDE model, but also see non-uniqueness of stationary states and periodic behaviour, an example of which is shown on the left.
You can find a video description of this paper here!
Opinion dynamics with continuous age structure A Nugent, S Gomes, MT Wolfram, 2025, European Journal of Applied Mathematics, pp. 1–36. doi:10.1017/S0956792525100260.
Through several papers we introduce and study an adaptive network, capturing the changing relationships between individuals over time. We consider a network that responds to the strength of individuals' interactions, as well as network dynamics driven by an external control. We ask questions about the impact on the population's opinions (when does the dynamic network lead to consensus/polarisation?) as well as the impact on the network structure (can opinion clustering lead to network communities?). On the right we see opinion dynamics transforming an initially random network into a structured population.
Emergent structures in coupled opinion and network dynamics A Nugent, CC Fernandez, S Gomes, 2026, arXiv:2602.03738 (Under review)
Steering opinion dynamics through control of social networks A Nugent, S Gomes, MT Wolfram, 2024, Chaos 1 July 2024; 34 (7): 073109
On evolving network models and their influence on opinion formation A Nugent, S Gomes, MT Wolfram, 2023, Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 456:133914.
We derive ODEs for opinion dynamics from a stochatsic ABM with pairwise interactions by simultaneously rescaling the time-step and strength of interactions. The video shows realisations of the ABM in solid lines and the limiting ODE in dashed lines. This connection answers questions in both settings, such as the motivation of multiplicative noise terms in SDE models or the link between selection noise and mollification of interaction functions.
Bridging the gap between agent based models and continuous opinion dynamics A Nugent, S Gomes, MT Wolfram, 2024, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 129886.
Many social movements, such as vaccination or reducing pollution require agents to cooperate, paying a cost to benefit their neighbours. We model the likelihood that each agent across a network will cooperate. The figure on the right shows that agents on a complete network learn to defect, while agents on a fast assortative network learn to cooperate. This effect grows as the noise (representing exploration) increases.
Mean-field imitation dynamics on fast assortative networks B Russell, A Nugent, J Bara, 2026, arXiv: 2606.11892 (Under review)
Modelling Social Systems
The article below summarises the discussions at a recent workshop at Casa Matematica Oaxaca titled 'Collective Social Phenomena: Dynamics and Data', addressing modelling frameworks, ethical challenges, and best practices.
"Unlike in physics or engineering, researchers often lack controlled experiments or abundant, clean data. Observational data is sparse, noisy, partial, and missing in systematic ways. In such an environment, how can we build models that can inform science and decision-making in transparent and responsible ways?"
Modeling Social Systems: Transparency, Reproducibility, and Responsibility M Aldana, RB Ventura, HZ Brooks, PS Chodrow, F Georgiou, J Johnson, K Josić, ZP Kilpatrick, K Landgren, A Nugent, M Porfiri, N Rodriguez, P Suárez-Serrato, D White, A Wiedemann, S Zhang, 2025.
I was also involved in a recent review paper looking at different ways of modelling opinion manipulation, in particular comparing approaches from optimal control to those in game theory.
Speaking of Opinions: Comparing Approaches to Modelling Opinion Manipulation L Estrada, S Glendinning, A Nugent, 2026. arXiv: 2601.07619 (Under review)
Critical slowing down states that systems display increasing relaxation times prior to a critical transition, an effect that can be observed in timeseries statistics to give an early warning of the transition. However, in epidemiological models there is frequent disagreement with this general theory, and the alternative theory of critical speeding up predicts contradictory behaviour of early warning signals. We describe the behaviour of common early warning signals in terms of a system’s potential surface and noise around a quasi-steady state, then describe an equation-free method to obtain these key features from timeseries, using a version of the SIS model as a case study. The figure shows example reconstructed potential surfaces.
Exploring the role of the potential surface in the behaviour of early warning signals A Nugent, E Southall, L Dyson, 2022, Journal of Theoretical Biology, 554, p.111269.
During the role-out of COVID-19 vaccines, a key question was that of vaccine efficacy. We examined the different ways of incorporating vaccine efficacy into compartmental models, for example: a 90% efficacy could be interpreted as a 90% probability of moving to a fully immune class or a 90% reduction in the rate of infections. These different interpretations give different model structures and different conditions for controllability. In reality, vaccine efficacy has multiple components and should be included in compartmental models in multiple places.
Evidence suggests that those engaging in endurance sports training have an elevated risk of atrial fibrillation, this can be diagnosed accurately using an electrocardiogram (ECG), but this is often unavailable. Our goal in this project, supervised by Professor Colm Connaughton and Ian Green from Crickles, was to develop methods for quantifying the degree of the irregularity in readily available heart rate data, and test if this was correlated to self-reported heart rhythm problems.
Cyclists Cardiac Conundrum A Nugent, YT Loo, J Buckingham, 2022. arXiv: 2601.02011