My name is Anastasiia Antonova, I am a Ph.D. candidate at the Aix-Marseille School of Economics
I will be joining the Bank of Canada in the fall of 2025
My primary research area is monetary economics, focusing on price distortions in production networks
My secondary research area is business cycle dynamics, focusing on the role of expectations and uncertainty
email: anastasiia.antonova@univ-amu.fr
State-dependent pricing and cost-push inflation in a production network economy [Draft] [Slides]
Abstract. Post-Covid inflation pressures call for quantifying the cost-push effect of large sectoral shocks within observed inflation. This paper examines how state-dependent pricing shapes cost-push inflation in a New-Keynesian Production Network model, extended with tractable state-dependent price rigidity varying with shock size. I find that state dependence is particularly strong in sectors with inherently higher price rigidity, affecting both the magnitude and direction of the cost-push effect, especially during crises. Overall, state dependence more than doubles the contribution of cost-push factors to observed inflation.
Finalist of the ECB Young Economist Prize, Sintra 2024
Winner of Louis André-Gérard-Varet Best Paper Prize, Lisbon 2023
The Military Multiplier with Ralph Lütticke and Gernot Müller [Draft] [Slides]
Abstract. What determines the effectiveness of military buildups? We introduce the concept of the military multiplier: the percentage increase in military equipment an additional unit of output buys. It varies with the costs of allocating resources to military production, depending, among other things, on the industrial structure and capital reallocation frictions. We show that the response of military-goods prices to military buildups is a sufficient statistic for the military multiplier and that it has declined over time in the U.S. Using a calibrated multi-sector business cycle model, we show this decline stems from the economy’s structural shift toward the service sector.
Distorted prices and targeted taxes in the New-Keynesian Network Model with Gernot Müller [Draft] [ CEPR Discussion paper 19444 ]
Abstract. The defining feature of the New Keynesian model is that goods prices are adjusted infrequently. In the one-sector version of the model, goods are intrinsically homogeneous and should trade at the same price. By targeting inflation, monetary policy can achieve the efficient allocation. In the network version of the model, sectoral shocks call for an adjustment of relative prices and give rise to a trade-off between adjusting relative prices across sectors and maintaining price stability within sectors. Monetary policy alone can no longer achieve the first best. Against this background, we study the optimal tax response to sectoral shocks. It features twice as many tax instruments as there are sectors, is budget-neutral, and is not confined to the sector where the shock originates. A simple rule that targets sectoral inflation approximates the optimal policy well. We illustrate the quantitative relevance of our results using a calibrated version of the model.
Journal of Monetary Economics, revise and resubmit
Supply Shocks in the Fog: The Role of Endogenous Uncertainty with Mykhailo Matvieiev and Céline Poilly [Draft] [AMSE Working paper 2024-27]
Abstract. Endogenous uncertainty acts as an aggregate-demand amplification mechanism of supply shocks. Using U.S. data, we first stress that taking into account time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty leads to a significantly stronger recession and less inflationary pressures, in response to a TFP shock. In addition, we show empirically that households’ misperception increases during recessions. To rationalize these findings, we build a noisy-information New-Keynesian model where the precision of signals increases with economic activity. Pro-cyclical precision of information gives rise to an amplified precautionary saving behavior. A full-fledged model parametrized by using consumer-based forecast errors generates a demand-like recession of supply shock.
Age-specific income risk and consumption over the life-cycle with Mykhailo Matvieiev [Draft]
Abstract. Age and risk play key roles in shaping consumption patterns.. This paper documents the age-specific nature of business cycle fluctuations in income risk and examines how old-age-specific labor income risk influences consumption dynamics across age groups. We identify a series of old-age-specific labor income risk shocks in the U.S. and find that the consumption of middle-aged workers responds most strongly to these shocks. We then assess whether a standard heterogeneous agent life-cycle model can replicate our empirical findings. The model aligns with the empirical evidence as long as it accounts for the differences in individuals' sensitivity to risk implied by the MPC and prudence heterogeneity.
News and firm entry: the role of waiting option with Mykhailo Matvieiev [Draft]
Abstract. Firm entry and capital investment both vary over the business cycle. This paper analyzes the role of the firm entry delay option (waiting option) in the joint dynamics of firm entry and investment in a news-driven RBC model. We introduce the waiting option by restricting the number of potential firm entrants and demonstrate that the combination of news shocks and the waiting option effect yields empirically plausible joint dynamics of firm entry and investment over the business cycle. In contrast, the model without the entry delay option produces excessively volatile firm entry. We rationalize our findings using an analytical real-option model of firm entry.
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 171, February 2025