Allil K., Calvo E., Leon A.S., Stanteinger U., “Healthy Retirement Begins at School: Educational Differences in the Health Outcomes of Early Transitions into Retirement”, Ageing & Society, 2021, pages 1-21.
Trejo S., Leon A.S., Duncan B., Grogger J., "New Evidence of Generational Progress for Mexican Americans", Labour Economics, 2020, Volume 62.
Grogger J., Leon A.S., Ome A., "Heterogeneity in the Effect of Public Health Insurance on Catastrophic Out-of-Pocket Health Expenditures: The Case of Mexico", Health Policy and Planning, 2015, Volume 30, Issue 5, Pages 593–599.
“Households Dynamics and Consumption Costs of Transitory and Permanent Health Shocks under Incomplete Insurance” Job Market Paper, Chap1, Doctoral Dissertation, University of Chicago, 2014.
Chap. III.3 “Modelo de atención en salud de los prestadores estatales.” in Propuesta de modernización y fortalecimiento de los prestadores estatales de servicios de salud”, (2017), Arteaga O., Beyer H., Martinez S., Santelices E., Velazco C., Villarino S. edits., Centro de Estudios Públicos and Escuela de Salud Pública de la Universidad de Chile. Santiago, Chile, pgs 76-86.
“Parenthood and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Chile” with Heggeness M. (Submitted to the Review of Economics of the Household
Abstract: Throughout the pandemic, Chile implemented a series of public health mandates restricting mobility and high social-contact activities with the goal of reducing disease spread. In this paper, we study the impact of one of these policies - central planner variation in school re-openings on labor market outcomes. We examine how access to supervised care for children in school affected mothers’ labor supply and show that mothers increased labor force participation anywhere from 2.6 to 21.0 percentage points (ppts) as schools re-opened. As mothers came back to the labor force, however, unplanned disruptions decreased their ability to stay actively engaged in work and increased their take up of leave from work, an artifact of unanticipated sick children and quarantine policies that particularly affected mothers who were secondary earners in the household. Conditional on being in the labor force, having a teenager buffered both mothers and fathers from work disruptions; parents were more likely to be actively working and less likely to be on leave. Our findings support a theory that parental labor supply is sensitive to disruptions in the care of children but also depends on household composition and each parent’s role beyond gender. Policies that encourage consistent formalized systems of care and learning for children will not only benefit children but also a second-earner’s ability to re-enter the labor force and advance at work.
Available as Working Paper No75 in the Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve. https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/institute-working-papers/parenthood-and-labor-market-outcomes-evidence-from-chile
“Firm Shocks and Inequality: The Effect of Firm Shocks on Wages and Employment” with Tapia M. and Castillo A.
Abstract: We study the effect of idiosyncratic firm shocks on the earnings and employment of workers. We use a matched employer-employee census between 2007 and 2019 for Chile, a developing economy with a significant degree of earnings inequality. The dataset allows us to explore different dimensions of heterogeneity of both workers and firms. Our results suggest that the pass-through of changes in firm sales on the wages of continuing workers can be significant, especially for large negative shocks, and that the effects can vary significantly with labor market conditions. We also show that responses along the extensive margin of employment also play a relevant role, as workers can face a significant risk of displacement. This suggests that looking at the earnings of workers who leave the firm after a negative shock can provide a more precise assessment of how firms transfer risks to workers through their life cycle.
Available as Working Paper No1010 in the Central Bank of Chile: https://www.bcentral.cl/en/web/banco-central/content/-/details/documento-de-trabajo-n-1010
“Policy Responses to the Pandemic in Chile: Beyond Sanitary Considerations” with Henriquez P., Diaz F. and Sabat, J. (R/R the Journal of Economic Modelling)
Abstract: The occupational risk of infection varies among workers, presenting a challenge between economic considerations and health safety, particularly for those in contact-intensive roles. This risk variation, combined with the inverse relationship between income and contact-intensive occupations, may explain the higher pandemic-related death rates among younger individuals in low and middle-income countries. In these nations, many of the victims were working-age individuals, in stark contrast to developed countries. Socio-economic disparities play a significant role in this scenario, particularly with low-income workers facing higher age-specific cumulative infection fatality rates. However, the impact of occupational disparities on the pandemic’s distributive effects is often underemphasized. To test to which extent epidemiological time-varying conditions explain the differences in the probability of lockdown in Chilean counties, we combine a panel on county level epidemiological data informing the weekly number of confirm infection cases with socioeconomic household surveys data and the 2019 census estimated population by county. Our findings suggest that social welfare can be optimized by enforcing lockdowns based on the contact intensity of professions within counties. Areas with high-contact occupations not only reap more health benefits from strict lockdowns but also face heightened economic losses due to the challenges of remote work. Thus, the most effective strategy might involve imposing stricter lockdowns in high-contact occupational zones, complemented by targeted financial aid for affected workers. In the wake of promising vaccine developments, non-pharmaceutical interventions like lockdowns are still critical for pandemic control. This study evaluates Chile’s lockdown approach, which saw varying durations across economically segregated counties. Counties with lower socioeconomic outcomes and higher prevalence of contact-intensive occupations faced more lockdowns, regardless of immediate epidemiological risks. Our findings resonate with a theoretical model advocating for lockdown policies adjusted to regional occupational concentration. Two key insights appear: Tailored interventions can maximize welfare in segregated economies, but they risk deepening economic disparities. Thus, while epidemiologically strategic, such approaches need policies to counterbalance potential economic inequities. Chile’s experience underscores the importance of balancing health imperatives with economic equity during pandemics.
IN THE OVEN...
“The effects of Army Conflict on the School to Work Transitions and Fertility of Women in Yemen” with Calderón V.
“Households Dynamics and Consumption Costs of Transitory and Permanent Health Shocks under Incomplete Insurance”