Research
Research Projects:
Institutional Resilience to Climatic Shocks Bronze Age Civilizations:
As part of the Origins project, we study the effect of climatic shocks on the evolution of political institutions and legal traditions in Bronze Age Mesopotamia and Egypt. To elaborate, we study the collaboration of elites and non-elites in times of harsher climates in large-scale public projects --- such as canalization, long-distance trade, and provision of public goods. Our findings suggest as a result of severe droughts a time-inconsistent elite will give more political power to non-elite to incentivize them to cooperate in high investment in agriculture. These inclusive political institutions in turn result in higher provision of public goods, negating part of the direct negative effect of droughts on the population.
Working Papers:
Altaweel, Mark, Giacomo Benati, and Amin Gholami, Carmine Guerriero, Alessio Palmisano, and David Stasavage. (2024). “4200 BP Megadroughts Revised: Institutional and Economic Resilience in Greater Mesopotamia."
Amin Gholami, Carmine Guerriero. (2024) “Climate Change, State-Building and Resilience in Ancient Egypt"
- Victory Stele of Naram-Sin, King of the Akkadian Empire, celebrating victory against the Lullubi from Zagros in 2260 BC.
As Research Assistant:
Guerriero, C. (2021). "Understanding Legal Origins: on the Determinants and Impact of Legal Traditions." (PDF)
Benati, G., & Guerriero, C. (2021). "Climate Shocks and State-Building." (Link)
Benati, G., & Guerriero, C. (2022). "The Origins of Culture." (PDF)
Benati, G., & Guerriero, C. (2023). "Combining social sciences, geoscience, and archaeology to understand societal collapse." (Link)
Future Projects:
Fall of Sassanids and Rise of Islam:
The Sixth and Seventh centuries CE saw political reforms in two empires in the Near East, Byzantine under Justinian-I, and the Sassanid Empire under the Kavad-I and Khosrow-I. Both Nations saw the centralization of state and legal systems in this period which are usually associated with the Philosopher-Kings. Later on, the formerly fragmented Arabian Peninsula, united under the newly formed Islamic state and managed to conquer most of the territories under the rule of the aforementioned empires. While this period is thoroughly studied by historians, a comparative study of the evolution of three states based on formal models of state formation informed by political and economic theories is lacking. While the changes are associated with the political competencies of the rulers, the underlying economic and environmental conditions are mostly neglected.
- Coins depicting Khosrow II, Shahanshah of the Sassanid Empire (611 CE)
Russo-Iranian Wars, and the Constitutional Movement in Iran:
The Fifth Russo-Iranian Wars (1826-1828) resulted in a defeat by Iran followed by peace treaties that first separated parts of Iranian territories and second established a free-trade policy for Russian traders, which introduced western produce to the former isolated economy of Iran. There is a body of scholarship studying the emergence of democratic institutions following a major defeat by an authoritarian state. The case of Iran is interesting because the causal relationship between the peace treaties and the economic change that followed is easy to establish. However, a quantitative study of the effect of these economic shocks on the political reforms that followed is lacking. The newly formed merchant families and intellectuals formed the main body of the democratic movement which resulted in the creation of the parliament of Iran.
Left - Treaty of Turkmenchay (1828 CE)
Right - First National Parliament of Iran (1906 CE)
The aim of both projects will be to:
Create a panel data on the city level, of political institutions, state capacity, and public good provision.
Introduce game theoric models of state formation to explain the determinants and mechanisms of these changes.
Use credible econometric analysis to gain causal insight into the determinants of the evolution of political and legal institutions.