Research

Publications

• The Transmission of Macroprudential Policy in the Tails: Evidence from a Narrative Approach, with Simon Lloyd and Ed Manuel. 

Journal of Applied Econometrics. Accepted. 

[CfM WP | Final Draft]  [BdE WP]  [ESRB WP]  [BoE WP]     

     Blog: Bank of England Blog Post. Awards: Runner Up, ESRB leke van den Burg Prize 2023

• Oil Supply Shocks and Inflation Tail Risks, with Andrea de Polis and José Nicolas Rosas.

Economics Letters, 267, 2026, 113096.

• Macroprudential Policy in the Euro Area, with Ivan Paya. 

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. Forthcoming.  

• Public Debt Burden and Crisis Severity, with Ivan Paya. 

European Economic Review, 176, 2025, 105028.

[SUERF Policy Brief]

• Preventing Financial Disasters: Macroprudential Policy and Financial Crises. 

European Economic Review, 151, 2023, 104350. 

Working Papers

• Natural Disasters, Economic Activity, and Property Insurance: Evidence from Weekly U.S. State-Level Data. 

 [BdE WP]    [SUERF Policy Brief]  (Update coming soon!)

This paper was previously circulated under the title “The Economic Impact of Natural Disasters: A High-Frequency Approach.”

• Macroprudential Policy and Housing Wealth Inequality: Evidence from the Euro Area, with A. Pérez-Bernabeu.

 [Draft] (Update coming soon!)

• [New!] Natural Disasters and Fiscal Shelters, with Evi Pappa. 

[BdE WP]