Publications
Infant mortality expectations and fertility behavior (with Adeline Delavande and Hans-Peter Kohler) - [link] - Accepted - Demography
Abstract: For decades, population research has been interested in the complex relationship between child mortality and fertility, with a key focus on identifying replacement (fertility response to experienced child mortality) and hoarding (fertility response to expected child mortality) behaviors. Using unique data from the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health (MLSFH), we investigate the impact of individual-specific subjective infant mortality expectations on fertility choice. We instrument the potentially endogenous infant mortality expectations with the average of parents' ratings of children's health to address a potentially omitted variable bias such as parental taste for health. Consistent with the hoarding mechanism, we find that a 10 percentage point decrease in infant mortality expectations leads to a 14 percentage point decrease in the propensity to have a child in the next 2 years from a baseline propensity of 43%.
Working Papers
Expertise, Signaling, and Learning in Fish Auctions (with Isa Hafalir) - [link] - under review
Abstract: Theoretical analyses have demonstrated that in sequential auctions, prices follow a martingale. Yet, empirical observations often indicate varied price points for comparable products. We examine sales of fresh seafood through sequential Dutch auctions at the Sydney Fish Market (SFM), presenting evidence of non-monotonic price trends and investigating the causes of price variations among homogeneous products. With the extensive data set covering over 27 years of transactions at SFM, we address potential endogeneity concerns arising from seafood diversity. Employing the lot fixed-effects approach to standardize transactions, we discern bidding patterns that differ according to bidders' experience levels. Additionally, our findings highlight evidence of signaling and learning. We infer that the agents' heterogeneity in the market creates an interactive environment: bidders tend to bid higher when following an experienced leader, but this trend reverses when the initial bid comes from someone not experienced, highlighting how bidders adjust based on signals from others.
Failure of International Laws in Local Contexts: The Case of the Child Rights Act in Nigeria (job market paper) [draft available upon request] - under review
Abstract: This study examines the impact of the 2003 Child Rights Act (CRA) in Nigeria, aimed at prohibiting marriages below 18 at the federal level. However, conflicting provisions in the Nigerian constitution and the partial adoption of the federal law by states with Islamic legal systems have hindered its full implementation. Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), this research utilizes the staggered implementation of the reform across states while accounting for dynamic and heterogeneous treatment effects. Contrary to expectations, the findings using the Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) method reveal a negative impact of the CRA on marriage age outcomes for girls, indicating marriage at an earlier age and higher prevalence of marriage before 18. This effect is driven by treated respondents residing in clusters where Muslims form the majority. These findings highlight the importance of considering local cultural and religious norms, as overlooking them can lead to unintended consequences. Additionally, this study emphasizes the significance of treatment heterogeneity and demonstrates the bias that can arise when using standard methods that overlook it. By shedding light on the impact of specific contextual factors, this research contributes to a better understanding of how legal reforms can effectively address the issue of child marriage.
For this paper, I was awarded the Third-best Paper Award at the PhD Conference in Economics and Business in Australia.
The Impact of Severe Health Shocks on Household Labour Market Outcomes and Well-Being in Australia (with Pelin Akyol and Matt Nolan) [draft available upon request]
Abstract: This study investigates the spillover effects of unexpected severe health shocks within households, focusing on the impacts on labour market outcomes, physical and mental health, and overall quality of life both the affected individual and other household members. Using data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey and employing an event study approach with a staggered difference-in-differences model and individual fixed effects, we find that severe health shocks lead to persistent labour market consequences for the affected individuals. For other household members, these shocks significantly increase the likelihood of taking on caregiving roles, lead to an initial increase in working hours, increase financial stress and negatively affect life satisfaction, as well as physical and mental health.
Do Higher Unemployment Benefits Reduce Incentives to Work: Insights from the Coronavirus Supplement (with Erin Clarke and Matt Nolan) [e61 Research Note]
Abstract: The Coronavirus Supplement, introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic, was a temporary policy aimed at mitigating financial hardship for Australian households. However, its effect on employment behaviour has been the subject of debate. This research examines whether the Supplement reduced incentives to work by comparing labour market responses of Australians to New Zealanders residing in Australia, who were excluded from the policy. Using propensity score matching and a difference-in-differences framework, we identify a 19% decline in job-finding rates and a 64% increase in job separations attributable to the Supplement. These findings underscore the balance policymakers must strike between financial support and labour market incentives, particularly during crises. We also explore implications for optimal unemployment benefits, highlighting the need for careful calibration to address both social insurance and incentive effects.
Works in Progress
Financial Incentives and Fertility: Evidence from Linked Administrative Data on Australia’s Baby Bonus (with Pelin Akyol) [draft available upon request]
Abstract: This study examines the impact of Australia's childbirth-related financial incentives, with a primary focus on the Baby Bonus policy, on fertility patterns using comprehensive administrative data. Employing interrupted time series analysis, we assess how these policies influenced both birth timing and the total number of children. We evaluate the causal relationship between financial incentives and birth counts, while accounting for underlying demographic trends. Additionally, we explore the heterogeneous effects across age and income groups, and geographic regions. Our findings address a critical gap in understanding how pronatalist policies influence fertility decisions, providing valuable insights for policymakers seeking effective approaches to demographic challenges. The results suggest that these incentives affected both birth timing and overall family size, with implications for designing comprehensive family support mechanisms that can effectively address long-term demographic trends.
Anticipating Misperceptions: Labour Market Outcomes of Muslim Minorities (with Elif Incekara-Hafalir, Anisa Buckley, and Rayan Merkbawi) [data collection is complete]
Abstract: Misperceptions about social norms can subtly influence individual decisions, particularly in sensitive areas like women’s employment within minority communities. This study explores how perceived attitudes toward women’s work shape employment intentions among Australian Muslims, as well as how the broader public views these norms. While support for women’s right to work is high across groups, both Muslims and non-Muslims tend to underestimate the extent of support among Muslim men. Additionally, Muslim women who anticipate misperceptions from mainstream professionals are less likely to consider future employment. These insights reveal how both internal and external perceptions contribute to shaping career decisions within minority communities.