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As a theoretical ecologist, I use the tools of mathematical models and computer simulations to understand and predict how different changes (e.g., hotter temperatures, introducing new species) will impact ecological communities. This work is critical for evaluating theories about how the natural world works and effectively managing changing ecosystems. My current research focuses on how changing thermal regimes reshape ectotherm population dynamics using differential equation models and stochastic simulations.
Dissertation Work: How do changing temperatures shape extinction risk?
The temperatures we experience in any given location are constantly changing: we get hotter during the day, during the summertime, or when the wind dies down and clouds drift away from the sun. Animals live in a world shaped by this temperature variability. Everything about their lives ― their growth rate and ability to reproduce, their maximum running speed or jumping height, even the amount of energy it takes for them to keep their bodies functioning ― depends fundamentally on their body temperature.
While we understand some key rules about how these temperatures affect the organisms experiencing them, we still know very little about the ways that changing temperature patterns (e.g., more frequent heatwaves, warmer nighttime temperatures, habitats with less temperature variability) affect animal behavior, physiology, and risk of extinction. My dissertation research aims to leverage our knowledge of organismal thermal tolerances to better predict the affects of changing temperature regimes. This work is crucial to accurately predict impending changes to population sizes, extinction risk, and range shifts for both vulnerable and pest species.
Autocorrelation & Extinction Risk
How does the sequence of temperatures through time, quantified using temporal autocorrelation, impact the extinction risk of organisms experiencing them? These temporal considerations are generally excluded from classic extinction risk metrics, even though they are critical for understanding the impacts of increasingly common and deadly events like heatwaves. My work examines (1) under what conditions it is important to consider the ordering of temperatures and (2) how to incorporate them into risk forecasting by integration with population dynamical modeling. Read on here!
Language: Mathematica, R
Experimental Noise Coloration
When do high levels of autocorrelation generate greater than expected extinction risk? In this chapter, I assess this question by pairing theoretical predictions about the parameter spaces that should preclude extinctions with stochastic simulations and a factorial experiment on the protist Paramecium caudatum. We establish how the envelope of persistence shrinks as autocorrelation increases, driven by the clustering together of stressful conditions, and validate our predictions in our experimental system. Read on here!
Language: Mathematica, R; Press: 1
Past Projects
Chaotic Dynamics
The Vasseur Lab teamed up to write the Encyclopedia of Biodiversity's chapter on chaos in ecology: what it is, how to generate it, and where to find it. Read more here!
Language: Mathematica
Invasive Species Spread
My undergraduate thesis, completed with Julie Blackwood at Williams College, examined the dynamics of invasive species spread and possible biosecurity tactics for managing it. Read more here!
Opt-Ed: 1 | Language: MATLAB
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