Research
Current research projects
Moving forward blindly: capacity planning, uncertainty and environmental targets (Joint work with David Benatia)
Abstract
Public energy transition policies often use forward-looking scenarios of energy demand, production and cost to determine the cost of the future electricity mix. These projections can determine the direction of policy support for certain types of energy but often represent a central planner operating in a deterministic environment. This assumption is very strong for long-term (decades) investments and neglects uncertainty and the role of risk aversion. However, recent years have taught us the strength that unexpected extreme events (COVID-19 crisis, war in Ukraine) can have on electricity demand and fuel prices. Moreover, it is difficult to establish precisely in advance the productivity of renewable energies, especially in the presence of more frequent extreme weather events with climate change. We evaluate the deviations of a deterministic optimal renewable energy investment path in the presence of uncertainty on key factors (load, capacity factor and gas price) from an anticipated stochastic trajectory using dynamic programming. We perform a simulation exercise calibrated on the German energy transition as an illustration.
A mean-field game model of electricity market dynamics (joint work with Peter Tankov and Roxana Dumitrescu)
Abstract
We develop a model for the long-term dynamics of electricity market, based on mean-field games of optimal stopping. Our paper extends the recent contribution [Aïd, René, Roxana Dumitrescu, and Peter Tankov, ``The entry and exit game in the electricity markets: A mean-field game approach." Journal of Dynamics \& Games 8.4 (2021): 331] in several ways, making the model much more realistic, especially for describing the medium-term impacts of energy transition on electricity markets.
In particular, we allow for an arbitrary number of technologies with endogenous fuel prices and enable the agents to both invest and divest. This makes it possible to describe the role of gas generation as a medium-term substitute for coal, to be replaced by renewable generation in the long term, and enables us to model the events like the 2022 energy price crisis.
Conferences and Grants
External Seminars
HEC Montréal (2023), FiME Summer school (2023) and CEEPR, MIT (Boston, 2023) on "Moving forward blindly: capacity planning, uncertainty and environmental targets"
Conferences speaker
ISEFI (May 2023): "Moving forward blindly: capacity planning, uncertainty and environmental targets"
YEEES 31 (Vienna): "A mean-field game model of electricity market dynamics"
CEEM Ph.D. Conference on Electricity Markets (April 2023): "Moving forward blindly: capacity planning, uncertainty and environmental targets"
IAEE 2022 (Tokyo): "Optimal investment strategy in renewable power under uncertainty"
YEEES 29 (Ghent): "Optimal investment strategy in renewable power under uncertainty"
Award
Lights on Women Scholarship recipient (4th edition, 2022)
AF2I 2023 scolarship for the subject: Investissements, macroéconomie et énergies
Research experience
Center for Research in Economics and STastistics - CREST (Since 2020)
PhD in Economics
EDF (2020)
6 months Internship
Work on an investment model in the presence of investor behavioral biases
INRAe (2019-2020)
Research assistant of Pr Guy Meunier
CEA Saclay (2019)
6 months Internship
Work on economic consequences of flexibility of the French Nuclear Power Plant fleet, with an econometric approach
Education
Ecole Polytechnique (2018-2020)
Master in Economics
Specialization fields :
Industrial Organization
Energy and Environmental Economics
Structural Econometrics
Meiji University (2018)
Exchange Student at Graduate School of Governance Studies
Environmental governance and assessment
Public Policy evaluation and international economics
Toulouse School of Economics (2014-2017)
Bachelor in Economics (Valedictorian)
Faculté de droit de l'Université Toulouse I Capitole
Bachelor in Public Law (Valedictorian)
Volunteering & Other
From September 2017 to March 2018, I was an intern at the think-tank The Shift Project during a gap year. This internship, although not a pure research internship, enriched me enormously and allowed me to develop a concise general culture on climate and energy issues.
Since 2017, I am a member of The Shifters association. I noticeably contributed to the Plan de Transformation de l'Economie Française of the think-tank The Shift Project.
In 2021 I joined the think-tank BSI Economics.
Since September 2022 I am a member of Comité d'experts environnement of the French Channel TF1