Programme

Agent-Based Modelling for Policy (ABM4Policy) workshop 

at the European Central Bank

“Agent-based models and central banking: where from and where to”

26 and 27 June 2025, Frankfurt am Main

The European Central Bank (ECB) is co-organising the 4th edition of the Agent-Based Modelling for Policy (ABM4Policy) workshop, which will take place on Thursday, 26 June (afternoon) and Friday, 27 June 2025, at the ECB premises in Frankfurt am Main.

This workshop aims to foster an open dialogue between academics and policy makers from central banks and other international institutions by discussing relevant research as well as open issues and challenges in using agent-based models for policy analysis. 

This programme may be subject to change without notice.

* indicates the presenter

Thursday, 26 June 2027

13:30-14:00                Registration and coffee

14:00-14:30                Welcome and opening remarks

                                    Livio Stracca (European Central Bank)

14:30-16:00                Session 1: Monetary Policy

CANVAS: A Canadian behavioral agent-based model for monetary policy

Sebastian Poledna* (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) with Cars Hommes, Mario He, Melissa Siqueira and Yang Zhang

Monetary policy and inequality: a heterogenous agents’ approach

Giorgio Ricchiuti* (University of Florence) with Andrea Boitani and Lorenzo Di Domenico 

Accounting for multiple sources of inflation: an agent-based model investigation

Mauro Napoletano* (Université Côte d'Azur and OFCE-Sciences Po) with Leonardo Ciambezi, Mattia Guerini and Andrea Roventini

Discussant: Alejandro Van der Ghote (European Central Bank)

16:00-16:30                Coffee break

16:30-18:00                Session 2: Macroprudential Policies for Financial Stability

The impact of prudential regulations on the UK housing market and economy: insights from an agent-based model 

Arzu Uluc* (Bank of England) with Marco Bardoscia, Adrian Carro, Marc Hinterschweiger, Mauro Napoletano, Lilit Popoyan and Andrea Roventini

The devil in the DeTail: assessing state-contingent tail effects of releasable macroprudential capital buffers in a parsimonious agent-based framework

Ana Pereira* (Bank of England) with Enrico Minnella and Eugen Tereanu

Borrower based measures analysis via a new agent-based model of the Italian real estate sector

Gennaro Catapano* (Bank of Italy)

Discussant: Mara Pirovano (European Central Bank)

19:00                           Social event (by invitation)

Friday, 27 June 2027 

8:30-9:00                    Registration and coffee

9:00-10:30                  Session 3-1: Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy 1                    

Calibrating and forecasting with a macroeconomic agent-based model

José Moran* (Macrocosm and Institute for New Economic Thinking Oxford) with Samuel Wiese, Jagoda Kaszowska-Mojsa, Joel Dyer, Marco Pangallo, Francois Lafond, John Muellbauer, Anisoara Calinescu and J. Doyne Farmer

Macroprudential and monetary policies to deal with inequality

Alberto Russo* (Università Politecnica delle Marche) with Samantha Coccia and Mauro Gallegati

The macroeconomic effect of tariffs: insights from a multi-country agent-based model

Alex Crescentini* (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) with Luca E. Fierro, Sebastian Poledna and Yang Zhang  

The complex interplay between exchange rate and real markets: an agent-based model exploration 

Lilit Popoyan* (Queen Mary University of London) with Domenico Delli Gatti, Filippo Gusellla, Giorgio Ricchiuti, Tommaso Ferraresi and Andrea Roventini   

Discussant: Hanno Kase (European Central Bank)

Session 3-2: Climate Risks

Taking the green pill: macro-financial transition risks and policy challenges in the MATRIX model

Massimiliano Rizzati* (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and University of Brescia) with Emanuele Ciola, Enrico Turco, Davide Bazzana and Sergio Vergalli

Carbon pricing drives critical transition to green growth

Isaak Mengesha* (University of Amsterdam) and Debraj Roy 

Physical climate risks in complex adaptive economies

Tatiana Filatova* (Delft University of Technology) with Asli Mutlu, Joos Akkerman, Mikhail Sirenko, and Zac Taylor 

Flood risk impact on a mortgage agent-based model

Matteo Valle* (University of Amsterdam) with Chang Lin, Debraj Roy, Drona Kandhai and Cees Diks 

Discussant: Laura Parisi (European Central Bank)

10:30-11:00                Coffee break

11:00-12:30                Session 4-1: Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy 2      

The monetary-concentration trap: the self-reinforcing dynamics of market power and monetary policy

Enrico Turco* (Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore) with Domenico Delli Gatti, Filippo Gusella and Roberta Terranova 

Forecasting using a Dutch agent-based model with optimally behaving households

Steven Hoekstra* (University of Amsterdam, De Nederlandsche Bank) with Cars Hommes and Frank Pijpers 

Carry trade in an agent-based stock flow-consistent model

Eugenio Caverzasi* (Universita degli Studi dell’Insubria) with Ermanno Catullo and Pablo Bortz  

Discussant: Carlos Montes-Galdon (European Central Bank)

Session 4-2: Agent-based Modelling Methodologies

Robust policy design in agent-based simulators using adversarial reinforcement learning 

Aldo Glielmo* (Banca d’Italia) with Akash Agrawal, Joel Dyer and Michael Wooldridge 

Bayesian estimation of a large-scale macroeconomic policy agent-based model

Sylvain Barde* (University of Kent) 

Enhancing agent-based models with reinforcement learning: insights into macroeconomic dynamics 

Jacopo Di Domenico* (University of Macerata) with Luca Riccetti, Pietro Ragazzini, Luca Romeo, Aldo Glielmo and Michele Catalano

Discussant: Gianluca Pallante (Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna)

12:30-13:30                Lunch break

13:30-15:00                Session 5: financial stability risks                               

Robust-less-fragile: tackling systemic risk and financial contagion in a macro agent-based model

Andrea Roventini* (Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna) with Gianluca Pallante, Mattia Guerini and Mauro Napoletano

Applications of a high-resolution agent-based model of the Hungarian housing market

Bence Mérő* (Central Bank of Hungary) with András Borsos, 

Zsuzsanna Hosszú, Zsolt Oláh and Nikolett Vágó 

Banks and non-banks stressed: liquidity shocks and the mitigating role of insurance companies

Matthias Sydow* (European Central Bank) with Gábor Fukker, Tomasz Dubiel-Teleszynski, Fabio Franch, Sébastien Gallet, Helmut Gründl, Stelios Kotronis, Debora Miccio, Michela Pellegrino, Sebastian Schlütter and Matteo Sottocornola 

Discussant: Grzegorz Halaj (European Central Bank)

15:00-15:30                Coffee break

15:30-16:00                In-focus: agent-based modelling at central banks - recent developments and new challenges

Adrian Carro* (Bank of Spain) with András Borsos, Aldo Glielmo, Marc Hinterschweiger, Jagoda Kaszowska-Mojsa and Arzu Uluc

16:00-17:00                Panel discussion: agent-based models for central bank policy analysis: lessons learnt and way forward

•   Livio Stracca (European Central Bank) 

•  Yang Zhang (Bank of Canada) 

• Marc Hinterschweiger (Bank of England) 

• András Borsos (Central Bank of Hungary)

• Marco Gross (International Monetary Fund)

17:00               Thank you and closing remarks

Carsten Detken (European Central Bank)

General information

A number of selected papers will be published in a special section of Industrial and Corporate Change, Macro Economics and Development. 

Registration

The workshop will be held in hybrid format, with a strong preference for physical participation, in particular for the speakers and presenters. Virtual registration is intended primarily for attendees with travelling constraints.

Please note that registering for physical participation as an attendee is available on a first come, first served basis and we reserve the right to switch some attendees to virtual attendance in case the conference room capacity is reached. We will inform the registered attendees in such cases. The number of online participants may also be subject to a limit.

External participants are expected to cover their own travel and accommodation expenses.

Please register here no later than 16 June.

Organising committee

·       Eugen Tereanu and Radu Popa (European Central Bank)

·       Marco Bardoscia, Marc Hinterschweiger and Arzu Uluc (Bank of England)

·       Adrian Carro (Banco de España) 

·       Lilit Popoyan (Queen Mary University of London)

·       Andrea Roventini (Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna) 

·       Mauro Napoletano (Université Côte d'Azur and OFCE-Sciences Po)

·       Marco Gross (International Monetary Fund)

Contacts

For questions and assistance, please contact ABM4policy2025@ecb.europa.eu

For urgent administrative inquiries only, please contact Novak Novakovic at +49 1520 1537 950.