Upon choosing to analyze this company Akili, I expected it to be fairly unique, making it quite difficult to find related competitors for comparative analysis. There is however a broader digital therapeutics field with many of the companies in their first 10 years of operation. I was drawn to the concept of using digital technology as a therapeutic for a cognitive challenge.
The value proposition:
Leaving the eventual success (or failure) of the company aside, first lets look at the value of this project.
This Education Technology company, if one could call it that as it 'teaches' your brain to focus, brings together the concept of gamification in learning, and the research into the effect videogames being used as treatment for cognitive impairment. The company's original direction was to provide a prescription labelled video game to people struggling with attention, which they have since expanded upon. In order to obtain FDA approval a high bar of data submission, trials, research and analysis has to be reviewed. This in itself will move the field of gamified learning forward in our understanding of its utility. The value is bringing together a potential solution to a problem with something that is enjoyable to the user without causing harm.
Path to market success:
The path to market success for any startup is always multifactorial dependent. Luck, timing, product and leadership are always present factors.
The timing is a question of if the product is coming into the market at a time when the potential consumer base is open and willing to spend on such a concept and product. There is a demand in the way of a large population of people with ADHD as laid out in the Market Analysis. Will enough of that population at this time be willing to open their wallets to this type of therapeutic?
The product. The company started with the arduous work of getting a product (EndeavorRx) approved by the FDA. That then becomes the company's gold standard for quality assurance and actual effectiveness. Phase two was then launching EndeavorOTC for adults. Financially speaking this quickly became the company's flagship product and likely what they are hoping to leverage profitability on to start.
The leadership. I first became aware and interested in this company as I follow one of the investors Chamath Palihapitiya who has since pulled out from his leadership role at Akili. The current leadership team as seen on the website incorporates a wealth of knowledge and experience in medical digital technologies and bringing products to fruition.
A lot of money has been seeded into this company. It is still certainly unclear whether its path will ultimately lead to success and even more unclear if the stock price has any near term growth let alone survival in its future. My prediction for a positive outcome is that it may see more successes and ultimately be acquired by a company like META or another cash rich tech entity looking to expand their assets. This is not investment advice and i do not own any AKLI stock.