Your Election Tracker

Ianmaps is geared up for the 2025 midterm election. I will be posting my electoral notes, voting trackers, approval and election polling averages, forecasts, some pieces and maps. Ianmaps started mapping US Elections in 2016 and joined ElectionTwitter in 2019. Ian started mapping Philippine elections also in the same year.

Electoral Cartography is the study and creation of maps that visualize election-related data, such as voting patterns, turnout rates, winning candidates, and partisan affiliations. These maps can display geographic trends and demographic insights that help analyze the behavior and preferences of voters across different regions. Electoral cartography commonly uses choropleth maps (color-coded areas) or dot-density maps to represent this data visually.

In the Philippines, electoral cartography is still a rarity. Despite the country's vibrant democratic processes and frequent elections, comprehensive and detailed electoral maps are not commonly produced or utilized. Factors contributing to this include limited access to granular election data, and the technical challenges involved in creating accurate and meaningful electoral maps.

Given the value that electoral maps provide in understanding voter behavior and informing policy decisions, the absence of this tool is a significant gap in the Philippines' political landscape. To address this, we are committed to filling the maps one by one, systematically collecting, analyzing, and mapping election data across regions. This initiative aims to enhance transparency, foster data-driven discussions, and empower citizens and policymakers with better insights into the electoral dynamics of the country.

Our efforts symbolize a long-term commitment to bridging this gap and contributing to a more informed and participatory democracy.

Ianmaps is also uploading several polling aggregates: Presidential Approval Tracker, 2025 Senate Election, 2025 Party List Election and 2028 Early Presidential Election Polling

Tracking Public Opinion Polls: Why They Matter?

Public opinion polls are critical tools for understanding the thoughts, preferences, and concerns of citizens. They serve as snapshots of the public mood at a given timeframe and provide valuable insights for the administration, political parties and alliances, businesses and the economic market, and civil society.

Building Public Trust

Regular polling fosters transparency and accountability in governance. When leaders and institutions are attuned to public sentiment, they can align their policies and decisions with the people's needs and priorities. This alignment enhances public trust, as citizens feel their voices are being heard and considered in decision-making processes.

The Calculus of Understanding People's Opinion and Confidence

Polling captures both opinion (what people think) and confidence (how strongly they believe in institutions or policies). This dual insight is crucial for effective leadership.

Identifying Trends: Tracking changes in public sentiment over time helps identify shifts in societal attitudes.
Informing Policies: Understanding public preferences enables policymakers to craft initiatives that resonate with citizens.
Crisis Response: Gauging public confidence during emergencies or controversies allows leaders to address concerns proactively and restore faith in governance.

Presidential Approval Tracker

Presidential approval ratings are vital indicators of the public’s satisfaction with the country's leadership. Aggregates of these ratings provide a more comprehensive picture, minimizing the biases or anomalies of individual polls. Consistently high approval indicates robust public support, while declining ratings can signal a need for course corrections in governance.

Senate Polling Aggregate

The Senate race is the biggest election in 2025. Filipinos will elect 12 Senators this May. The multiple non-transferable vote (MNTV) system used to elect the Senators is rare worldwide. There are 66 qualified candidates for the Senate race. Early polls already provide a clear picture of the race. 2016, 2019 and 2022 Senate polls, as early as December a year prior to the election, have picked 10-11 winners correctly.

Party List Polling Aggregate

There are over 100 Party list aspirants. About 50 party list groups make it to the House. Polling is quite tricky in the PL race. 2019 and 2022 Party list polling were less accurate than Senate polls.

National Issues

Polling on urgent national issues, such as inflation, poverty, education, or climate change, reflects the public’s priorities. This information helps national leaders focus on what citizens consider most critical, aligning initiatives with societal needs and ensuring resources are allocated effectively. The recent polls in June, September and December grade the administration poorly on the heavy issues such as controlling inflation, wages and employment.

Built: October 22, 2023

Live: December 3, 2024

Latest update: January 14, 2025

Content ideas: Race To the White House, JHK Forecasts, VoteHubUS, Polling Canada & Polling USA, FivethirtyEight, Real Clear Politics

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