Invited Speakers

Professor Brendon Bradley

Brendon is a Professor of Earthquake Engineering in the Department of Civil and Natural Resources Engineering at the University of Canterbury, New Zealand; and the Deputy Director of QuakeCoRE: The New Zealand Centre for Earthquake Resilience, which is a network of over 180 active researchers. His areas of interest include engineering seismology, strong ground motion prediction, seismic response analysis of structural and geotechnical systems, and seismic performance and loss estimation methods. He obtained his Bachelor of Engineering with Honours in 2007 and PhD in 2009. Prior to joining the University of Canterbury in 2010, Brendon worked at GNS Science in Wellington, New Zealand, and as a post-doctoral fellow at Chuo University in Tokyo, Japan. Brendon is an editorial board member for EERI’s Earthquake Spectra and the Bulletin of the New Zealand Society of Earthquake Engineering. Brendon has received several notable awards for work with collaborators, including, the 2012 Ivan Skinner EQC award for the advancement of earthquake engineering in NZ; 2013 Royal Society of NZ Rutherford Discovery Fellowship; 2014 Shamsher Prakash Foundation Research Award; 2014 NZ Engineering Excellence Awards Young Engineer of the Year; 2015 University of Canterbury Teaching Award; 2015 TC203 Young Researcher Award; 2015 EERI Shah Innovation Prize; the 2016 ASCE Norman Medal; and the 2016 Prime Minister’s Emerging Scientist Prize.

Present and future directions in ground motion modelling and real-time decision making on built-environment impacts

Abstract: Earthquake-induced ground motion prediction is presently under-going a paradigm shift from the empirical prediction of ground motion intensity measures (e.g. response spectra), based on regression analysis of observations from past earthquakes, toward the use of physics-based simulation methods that directly predict the ground motion time series. The implications on present and near-future approaches for undertaking seismic hazard analysis, the prescription of ground motion loading for seismic design standards, and the ability to revolutionize the analysis of earthquake-induced impacts more broadly are examined. Key technologies include high-performance computing for comprehensive physics-based simulations and machine learning to leverage the wealth of data, and low-cost sensor hardware enabling an order of magnitude increase in spatial density of ground motion measurements. Examples from the 2010-2011 Canterbury and 2016 Kāikoura earthquakes are used for context.

Dr Hiroyuki Goto

Hiroyuki Goto is an Associate Professor in Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University. Areas of research field are engineering seismology, geotechnical engineering, and applied mechanics in Civil Engineering. Recent topics are mappings with reliable spatial resolution (Uncertainty Projected Mapping; UPM), very dense seismic observations in regional scale, extended finite-element method (X-FEM) for source rupture simulations. He will be visiting researcher in GNS Science during 2019-2020.

Extreme acceleration records during earthquakes

Abstract: Several recent earthquakes observed extremely large accelerations with peak value exceeding gravity accelerations. The highest PGA of 4.1g was recorded at seismic station IWTH25 during the 2008 Mw6.9 Iwate-Miyagi earthquake, Japan. The vertical acceleration exhibits an asymmetry with upward and downward peak values, and the downward peak is limited at gravitational acceleration (1g). The mechanism responsible for large asymmetric, vertical accelerations (AsVA) has been commonly attributed to the decoupling of near-surface materials referred to as a ‘trampoline’ effect (e.g., Aoi et al., Science, 2008). The trampoline effect occurs when a rebound force causes a large upward acceleration and a downward motion is limited at the gravitational acceleration (1g) due to the bouncing of a deformable soil. However, the mechanism cannot explain some of the AsVA records. In this presentation, we introduce another mechanism, local system response, responsible for the AsVAs, and show good agreement with the observation records. This finding has important implications for both the evaluation of natural ground motions and the proper installation of strong-motion seismometers.

Dr Kazumoto Haba

Dr. Kazumoto Haba is a manager in Nuclear Facilities Division, Taisei Corporation, which is a major general contractor in Japan. He received his Ph.D. in science from Nagoya university, Japan in 2010. Areas of research field are applied mechanics and numerical simulation in civil engineering, especially related to the safety of nuclear power plants. Recent research topic is simulation of surface fault displacement using high performance computing.

Simulation of surface earthquake fault using high performance computing

Abstract: Surface fault displacement can cause extensive damage of important structures. In fact, some infrastructures and buildings were damaged by surface fault displacement in huge earthquakes in Taiwan and Turkey in 1999. For the safety of important structures, such as nuclear power plants (NPPs), it is necessary to estimate a possibility of the occurrence and the amount of displacement for a surface earthquake fault. Numerical simulation of the fault rupture processes is one of the potential evaluation methods for surface fault displacements. However, there is a difficulty that it requires a large amount of numerical computation in simulating the fault rupture process. We therefore have developed a high-performance computing finite element method (HPC-FEM) for the fault displacement simulations. HPC-FEM has a scalable solver and the following two functions: a symplectic time integration of explicit scheme to properly conserve the energy of the fault; and rigorously formulated joint elements of high order. NPPs and many other important structures are built in a location away from the surface principal fault found by detailed geological surveys. Therefore, the primary purpose of fault displacement estimation for NPPs is to estimate a possibility of the occurrence of secondary fault displacement accompanying the activity of a primary fault. The following two-step simulation is reasonable for this purpose: 1) evaluating the crustal deformation caused by the primary fault slip that is based on the elastic theory of dislocations; and 2) evaluating the displacement and deformation of the target area by analyzing a detailed 3D model with HPC-FEM, where the displacement calculated in step 1) is applied to the boundary of the target area. In this presentation, we apply the numerical method to the simulation for 2014 Kamishiro fault earthquake in Japan in which the surface primary and secondary fault displacements were observed.

Professor Riki Honda

Department of International Studies, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, (& Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering), University of Tokyo.

Interested in Earthquake Engineering, Maintenance Engineering and Social Resilience.

1993-1997 Research Engineer, Public Works Research Institute, Ministry of Construction, Japan; 1997-2005 Research Associate, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University; 2005-2012 Associate Professor, University of Tokyo; 2012- Professor, University of Tokyo

Anti-catastrophe oriented seismic design for community resilience

Abstract: We introduced the concept of “anti-catastrophe (AC)” that has been gaining attention in Japan after the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake. The AC concept should be a useful concept for a seismic design to deal with extremely severe conditions using practical solutions with feasible budget constraint. Contribution of AC property of infrastructure has been recognized in recent earthquakes. The Operation Comb (The Operation Kushinoha), which succeeded in providing access roads to the severely damaged coastal area quickly after the earthquake, was highly appreciated. The cooperation of multimode transportation, maritime transport, railways, and flights, which contributed supply of oil to the Tohoku Area, was also reported by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT). Investigation of damage to infrastructure by the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake indicates that appropriately designed and maintained structure could avoid critical damage and would be able to contribute to the resilience of the society after it is hit by severe earthquakes. The basic concept of AC has been accepted by most advanced engineers, but they were not able to fully implemented since it could be regarded as over-specification and redundant design. We would like to encourage and enhance the AC oriented methodologies by providing theoretical framework. Since it is essential for the community to prepare effectively for unprecedentedly severe disasters expected in the near future, such as Nankai Trough Earthquakes. The AC-oriented design should extend the conventional concepts in the three dimensions: a) Phase dimension: situation where structures are damaged, excessing what is considered in the design; b) Time dimension: functionality of the community. Fast and efficient recovery should be aimed.; c) Space/domain dimension: multi-scale approach in terms of physical space and system domain is necessary. The framework of AC-oriented design consists from five stages: (i) Definition of anti-catastrophe performance To clearly define the targeted performance;(ii) Situation setup To determine damage types, circumstantial conditions, and input ground motions; (iii) Conceptual design To determine general design concept; (iv) Structural design To design the details; (v) Verification and validation To confirm that stages (i) to (iv) are correct and consistent. It should be noted that the AC concept accepts a certain level of damage on structures. It means that the risk must be accepted and shared by the community. The AC-oriented design leaves high degree of freedom to designers’ judgment, because it allows for a wide range of technologies, which are not prescribed in the design code. Therefore, for efficient implementation of AC property, we need an endogenous mechanism of risk control, where society can make decisions, set appropriate safety standards, and realize and sustain them. For that purpose, risk governance is essential.

Professor Koji Ichii

Dr of Engineering (Kyoto University), P.E.(Jp.)

1995-2000 Research Engineer, Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering Laboratory, Port and Harbour Research Institute, Ministry of Transport, Japan; 2001-2005 Senior Researcher, Port and Airport Research Institute, Japan; 2005-2017 Associate Professor, Graduate School of Engineering, Hiroshima University; 2017- Professor, Faculty of Societal Safety Science, Kansai University.

Awarded by Japanese Geotechnical Society (1999), Japan Port and Harbour Association (2005), and Japanese Society of Civil Engineers (2009)

Discussion on the appropriateness of model parameters for liquefaction analysis for PBD

Abstract: Dynamic effective analysis to evaluate the seismic performance of structures enabled the performance-based design (PBD) indicated in ISO23469. However, the appropriateness of the analytical results depends on not only the soil-constitutive model but the model parameters. Thus, the analytical results cannot be unique when several engineers work on the identical target analysis. In this study, a practical process of PBD with application of liquefaction analysis is illustrated. And some trials to mitigate the difference of the result induced by the difference of engineers is introduced. The differences in the FEM analysis results with various parameters exist in practice, and it can be a barrier in the application of PBD in practice. More comprehensive discussion in the process of parameter determination including the appropriate laboratory test sets of soil is expected by practical engineers.

Dr Chris Massey

Dr Chris Massey is an engineering geologist with more than 22 years of consultancy and research experience in the investigation and analysis of complex geological and geotechnical data for landslide and slope stability including landslide monitoring, foundation design, underground/surface rock support and groundwater problems. He has applied these skills to geohazard and risk assessments, oil and gas pipelines, highway, railway, mining engineering and town planning projects in Africa, the Himalayas, Europe, South East and Central Asia and Australasia. Chris has a degree in geology from Leeds University, UK; a masters in Engineering Geology from Imperial College, London, UK; and a PhD in engineering geology from the University of Durham, UK.

Regional-scale tools to evaluate the impact of earthquake and post-earthquake rain induced landslides

Abstract: New Zealand maintains a 24-hour response capability for advice and investigation of significant landslide occurrences or threats throughout New Zealand. The purpose of the all-hours capability is to ensure that appropriate advice is available to maximize public safety, and to collect reliable, consistent and often ephemeral information for landslide research. The capability is maintained within the GeoNet Project of GNS Science (www.gns.cri.nz) a wholly New Zealand government owned research organization. This talk outlines a prototype earthquake-induced landslide (EIL) forecast tool that will produce outputs for the GeoNet landslide duty officers after a significant earthquake, in near-real time, approximately 5 to 7 minutes after being triggered. The function of this tool is to provide rapid advisory information about the severity and likely location and impacts of landslides following a major earthquake, where ground shaking data recorded by the GeoNet strong motion instrument network is used as the input for the tool. The prototype EIL forecast tool is the first of several to be developed as part of a larger landslide forecast project being carried out by the GNS Science landslide and social science teams, and others. The aims of the overall project are to allow the GeoNet landslide duty officers (the end users) to: 1) Rapidly identify whether an earthquake or a rain event can generate landslides and the severity of landsliding; 2) Rapidly generate advisory information such as a spatial representation (map and table) of where landslides could occur in a significant earthquake or rainfall event and where the debris might travel, which can be used to help target response activities. The efficacy of the tool is demonstrated using the M_W 7.8 14 November 2016 Kaikoura Earthquake, and the landslides it generated, as an example of how the tool would work and the outputs it generates.

Professor Alessandro Palermo

Alessandro Palermo is Professor of Structural Engineering in the Dept. of Civil and Natural Resources Eng. at the University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand. He is author of more than 300 publications including 3 international patents in the field of earthquake bridge and structural engineering. His core expertise deals with the implementation of innovative technologies that minimize post-earthquake damage in built infrastructure. Alessandro has an extensive professional experience and he worked very closely within the industry to implement his research in “world-first” projects. Alessandro is recipient of several awards including the 2013 Ivan Skinner award and the 2013 University of Canterbury Innovation Medal (co-recipient). Alessandro’s teaching style is also well-received by the students; in 2016 he was voted by the UCSA (University of Canterbury Student Association) the best “University Lecturer of the Year”, “College of Engineering Lecturer of the Year” and the “Great Character of the Year”.

Lessons learnt from the recent New Zealand earthquakes and recent developments on damage resistant bridge systems: a natural pathway towards Resilience-Based Design

Abstract: Christchurch and more recent Kaikoura earthquakes has highlighted the difficulties in assessing the actual residual capacity and selecting the fastest and most cost-effective repair philosophy of damaged plastic hinges in conventional reinforced concrete bridges. In the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake over 300 bridges were assessed by authorities. One bridge almost collapsed and was replaced by a Bailey bridge, while several others close to the epicenter had sustained pier plastic hinging with fractured rebar and massive concrete spalling. The residual capacity and a detailed post-earthquake reparability plan is still unknown in few cases. Post-earthquake reparability is strictly connected with resilience and the ability to reinstate full functionality to the structure, however none of the international standards provide sufficient guidance on this matter. A resilience system or structure should include robustness, i.e. to describe the performance of modern structures by requiring low failure probabilities, reduced consequences from failures, and less recovery time. A design that minimizes/controls post-earthquake reparability, so-called “Low damage design” is seen a future viable resilient solution; the design philosophy has been currently implemented in New Zealand in real case studies. Its aim is to significantly reduce seismically induced damage to structural members, guarantee self-centering capability, i.e. no residual drifts and better control the local damage of the connection through the yielding of dissipative/replaceable devices. Bridges adopting low damage design are a viable alternative to seismic isolation and integrate perfectly with accelerated construction techniques. The presentation will overview the outcomes of an extensive experimental campaign at University of Canterbury on different types of repairable bridge pier connections, show the first-world implementation and conclude with an overall resilience based design framework including key design criteria and indicators.

Dr Tim Sullivan

Tim Sullivan is Associate Professor at the University of Canterbury and is Leader of QuakeCoRE Flagship 4. He obtained a 1st Class Hon.s Degree in Civil Engineering from the University of Canterbury, New Zealand and a Masters and PhD in Earthquake Engineering from the ROSE School, University of Pavia, Italy. He is author of more than 100 publications in the field of earthquake engineering. He was awarded the 2012 Plinius Medal by the European Geosciences Union in recognition of his interdisciplinary research on seismic hazards, the 2012 Otto Glogau Award and the 2018 Ivan Skinner Award by the New Zealand Society of Earthquake Engineering. He is an invited member to Editorial Boards of various journals, and is an invited faculty member of the ROSE School. He also has considerable consulting experience, having worked in New Zealand, Germany and the UK, and is a chartered engineer with the Institute of Civil Engineers (UK).

Improving the post-earthquake reparability of buildings

Abstract: In response to the Canterbury earthquakes a number of positive initiatives were launched to mitigate damage from future earthquakes in New Zealand. This included formation of QuakeCoRE: The NZ Centre of Earthquake Resilience. Flagship 4 of QuakeCoRE is focussed on developing the next generation of infrastructure; the technologies and processes that will help ensure New Zealand communities fair better in future earthquakes. One thrust area for research in QuakeCoRE Flagship 4 is to improve the post-earthquake reparability of buildings. This presentation first draws on experiences from the Canterbury and more recent Kaikoura earthquakes, to provide motivation for improved reparability. A number of factors that can make repairs difficult following an earthquake are reviewed. Secondly, developments being made to improve post-earthquake reparability in QuakeCoRE are examined. These include efforts to reduce damage in structural and non-structural systems and the development of a framework and tools by which reparability can be assessed. Finally, the potential impact that reparability considerations may have on conceptual design and retrofit decisions is discussed, highlighting the need for further research in this field.

Dr Masayuki Yoshimi

Senior Researcher, Earthquake Hazard Assessment Group, Geological Survey of Japan/AIST. Interested in bridging earth science and earthquake engineering.

Dr. of Engineering (Civil engineering, Tokyo University, 2001). 2004- Geological Survey of Japan/AIST

Structural damage by earthquake surface ruptures of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, Japan

Abstract: A sequence of large inland earthquakes, the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, occurred in the central Kyushu Island, Japan, starting with a Mw6.2 event on April 14, 2016 and culminated with the largest Mw7.0 event on April 16. Surface ruptures of the earthquake appeared as long as 30 km almost along pre-known active fault traces. The ruptures crossed a lot of infrastructures. Some bridges along the fault scarps suffered severe damage due to the surface rupture as well as the strong motion. Although the general location of the ruptures matched well with the pre-known fault traces, some surface ruptures emerged away from the pre-estimated fault trace.

Dr Sjoerd Van Ballegooy

Sjoerd is a Technical Director at Tonkin + Taylor. He has been involved in the geotechnical response to the liquefaction damage caused by the 2010 – 2016 Canterbury earthquakes and has been deeply involved in research to predict the consequences of liquefaction. One of the key projects led by Sjoerd is the architecture and development of the New Zealand Geotechnical Database to pool and disseminate geotechnical investigation data to the wider engineering community.

Scrutiny of simplified liquefaction triggering procedures using liquefaction observations from historical New Zealand earthquakes

Abstract: Following the 2010-2011 earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand, a number of studies have been undertaken to scrutinize the accuracy of simplified liquefaction evaluation procedures in predicting liquefaction manifestation and associated damage. Liquefaction damage indices such as LSN were calculated, utilising the simplified liquefaction triggering procedures, for 20,000 CPT in Christchurch and compared with the liquefaction observations. In addition to the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes, liquefaction has been also been documented for upwards of 12 other recent and historical earthquakes in New Zealand, including the 1855 Wairarapa, 1931 Napier, 1968 Inangahua, 1987 Edgecumbe and 2016 Kaikoura earthquakes. Liquefaction observations from these case-history events have been collated into a GIS database and CPT data has also been collated from these areas to develop a New Zealand-wide liquefaction case history dataset from a variety of earthquake events with magnitudes ranging from 5.7 to 8.1. Liquefaction damage indices have been calculated for these case histories and similar to the results from the Christchurch studies, the conclusions are that that the liquefaction indices are capable of depicting general trends in the liquefaction damage, but there were a significant number of cases where the predictions from the simplified methods are inconsistent with observations. Importantly, biases in the predictions are seen in which systematic miss-prediction of liquefaction occurrence is observed in specific areas, and for certain types of soils and stratification of deposits. A framework was developed in order to classify each CPT trace into one of four buckets. These include CPTs where the method results in a correct prediction of liquefaction (true positives), CPT’s where the method results in a correct prediction of no liquefaction (true negatives), CPTs where the method results in an incorrect prediction of liquefaction (false positives) and CPTs where the method results in an incorrect prediction of no liquefaction (false negatives). CPT profiles with true positive predictions comprises thick deposits of clean sand with CPT I_C values less than 1.8. Profiles with true negative predictions comprises either sites capped with 4m thick deposits of silt or clay (i.e. soils with I_C values greater than 2.6) or denser deposits of clean sand. As expected, comparison of the q_C traces shows that the q_C profiles for the true negative cases are typically higher than the q_C profiles for the true positive cases. Also the q_C envelope moves to the right with increasing shaking intensity, indicating that denser soils (with higher corresponding q_C values) have a higher resistance to liquefaction. Profiles with false negative predictions comprises thick deposits of clean sand with CPT I_C values less than 1.8. The q_C values in the upper 3 to 4m are similar to the q_C values for the true positive cases (i.e. soils where liquefaction is predicted by the Boulanger and Idriss (2014) method), whereas the q_C values of the soils beneath are typically a bit higher compared to those of the true positive cases and are not predicted to liquefy by the Boulanger and Idriss (2014) method. Finally CPT profiles for false positive predictions comprises highly stratified deposits of interlayered sands, silts and clays with I_C fluctuating between 1.5 and 3.