Present and future glacial lakes

Assess future risks presented by glacial lakes and ice/rock avalanches

Where will the major hazards be located and what are their likely triggers?
Will the most vulnerable people, defined by socio-economic factors, be located in zones that may be impacted by these hazards?
To what extent will major flood events entrain downstream debris and how will this impact on flood propagation?
Are planned infrastructure projects e.g. hydropower developments, likely to be in zones that may be impacted by glacier hazard and water scarcity events?
What is the "correct" way to simulate glacier-originated floods?

There are 33 sites where future glacial lakes may form. They will hold a total lake volume of 56,816,250 m3 (0.057 km3). The three largest lakes account for over 50% of the projected volume.
The rate of lake formation will be highest during the period 2030-2050, resulting in ~50% of the total number of lakes and ~65% of the lake area existing within the next 30 years. The three largest lakes will have been exposed during this period.
There is great variability in future lake locations and sizes depending on the ice thickness dataset and the Digital Elevation Model used to make the projections. Therefore, the results from any one single analysis should be taken with caution.
The lakes around Chicon Glacier pose a current threat to the city of Urubamba. Urubamba could be flooded in approximately 35 minutes with a flow rate of around 1500 m3/s.
This study demonstrates the applicability of 2-dimensional models as an alternative for simulating GLOF events in areas of about 10 km.

PPT slides summarizing the results

Scientific publications

Repository data access

Multimedia2 DH.mp4

Multimedia1 DH.mp4

The study focussed on the Cordilleras Urubamba (18.1 km2 glacierised area), Vilcabamba (39.2 km2) and Vilcanota (66 km2).
The locations of future glacial lakes were identified through the utilization of contemporary digital elevation data and published ice thickness data. By integrating these datasets with time-evolving glacier outlines, the emergence of glacial lakes under various climate scenarios was calculated.

Page updated

Report abuse