“Seeing you every day!”: Understanding disease dynamics using Panel Regression Approach
Dr. Pedro A. Alviola IV and Mr. Zython Paul T. Lachica
Disease information such as incidence, detection, mortality, etc., at a smaller cross-section unit (e.g. individuals, households) can be linked to a set of environmental drivers (i.e., climate variables) as well as socio-demographic factors (e.g. household size, income, health practices). More data collected can give us a clearer picture of how these drivers explain the changes in the response variables. Suppose that we have an epidemiologic dataset that contains detection information of a disease per cross-section over a specified time period. We found that on period t there is a positive detection of the disease. In period t + 1 a negative detection was recorded but the disease was detected again in period t + 2. Now we are interested in analyzing the effects of these identified drivers on the likelihood of an occurrence of a disease given information on disease detections over a specified time-periods. This workshop introduces the use of the Panel Regression Framework as a statistical model to analyze and predict the effects of drivers on a response variable. In this workshop, we will attempt to use this model framework to analyze the effects of disease drivers on the likelihood of Rotavirus-A (RVA) occurrence in swine farms.
Prior reading/prerequisites
Prerequisites:
1. R Programming and Gretl handling; and
2. Basic knowledge in regression analysis (e.g. simple linear regression, multiple linear regression)
Reading Materials:
1. Murao, L.A.E., Bacus, M.G., Junsay, N.X.T., Albarillo, D.L.D., Otero, M.C.B., Buenaventura, S.G.C., Ligue, K.D.B. and Alviola, P.A., 2019. Spatiotemporal dynamics and risk factors of rotavirus A circulation in backyard pig farms in a Philippine setting. Tropical animal health and production, 51(4), pp.929-937. Source:
2. Thomsen, M.R., Nayga Jr, R.M., Alviola IV, P.A. and Rouse, H.L., 2016. The effect of food deserts on the body mass index of elementary schoolchildren. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 98(1), pp.1-18. Source: