From Infection to Disease Spread: Multiscale Modeling
From Infection to Disease Spread: Multiscale Modeling
Embedded Files
Dr. Alexis Erich Almocera
Dr. Alexis Erich Almocera
Infectious disease is an elaborate process with at least two parts (or "scales"). In a person with the disease, immune cells respond to the replicating virus (in-host scale). Once the virus reaches a critical population size, the infected person then spreads the virus to healthy individuals (between host scale), which leads to a disease outbreak. We can study these scales separately with the vast array of models, thus evaluating medical therapies and public health measures. But these models may not answer this challenging question:
Infectious disease is an elaborate process with at least two parts (or "scales"). In a person with the disease, immune cells respond to the replicating virus (in-host scale). Once the virus reaches a critical population size, the infected person then spreads the virus to healthy individuals (between host scale), which leads to a disease outbreak. We can study these scales separately with the vast array of models, thus evaluating medical therapies and public health measures. But these models may not answer this challenging question:
Can we determine how severe an outbreak is by looking at the extent of viral infection?
Can we determine how severe an outbreak is by looking at the extent of viral infection?
A "multiscale" model coupling viral infection to disease transmission may shed light on this question. This workshop will introduce you to the multiscale modeling framework with a basic example. Using the ideas of dynamical systems, we will explore how viral replication changes the epidemic curve.
A "multiscale" model coupling viral infection to disease transmission may shed light on this question. This workshop will introduce you to the multiscale modeling framework with a basic example. Using the ideas of dynamical systems, we will explore how viral replication changes the epidemic curve.
Prior reading/prerequisites
Prior reading/prerequisites
Prerequisites:
• Basic knowledge in the stability of an ordinary differential equation system
Prerequisites:
• Basic knowledge in the stability of an ordinary differential equation system
• Numerical integration of a differential equation using MATLAB or Python
Reading Materials:
• Numerical integration of a differential equation using MATLAB or Python
Reading Materials:
1. Gilchrist MA and Coombs D (2006). Evolution of virulence: Interdependence, constraints, and selection using nested models.
Theor Popul Biol 69(2):145-153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tpb.2005.07.002
1. Gilchrist MA and Coombs D (2006). Evolution of virulence: Interdependence, constraints, and selection using nested models.
Theor Popul Biol 69(2):145-153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tpb.2005.07.002
2. Almocera AES, Nguyen VK, and Hernandez-Vargas EA (2018). Multiscale model within-host and between-host for viral infectious diseases.
J Math Biol 77:1035-1057. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-018-1241-y
2. Almocera AES, Nguyen VK, and Hernandez-Vargas EA (2018). Multiscale model within-host and between-host for viral infectious diseases.
J Math Biol 77:1035-1057. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-018-1241-y
Page updated
Report abuse