Thursday August 29 2019

8:30 Registration Opens: Atrium near Room U6/01f, Ground Floor Building U6

8:50 Welcome to EMCC-IV (Room U6/01f): M. Pelagatti (University of Milano-Bicocca), E. Hillebrand (CREATES and Aarhus University), C. Morana (University of Milano-Bicocca & CefES)

9:00-10:15 BoF Keynote Lecture (Room U6/01f): D. F. Hendry (University of Oxford): Econometrics for Empirical Climate Modeling Chair: E. Hillebrand (CREATES and Aarhus University)

10:15-10.45 Coffee break

10:45 -12:45 Plenary Session 1 (Room U6/01f): Climate Econometrics I Chair: M.D. Gadea (University of Zaragoza)

• Timo Teräsvirta (CREATES - University of Aarhus). Long monthly temperature series and the vector seasonal shifting mean and correlation autoregressive model, with C. He (Tianjin Unversity of Finance and Economics) and J. Kang (Tianjin Unversity of Finance and Economics)
• Robert Kaufmann (Boston University) The relation between local forcing and temperature in an urban environment, with F. Pretis (University of Victoria), James H. Stock (Harvard University) and Giselle Montamat (Harvard University)
• Mikkel Bennedsen (Aarhus University) Forecasting CO2 emissions using macroeconomic data, with E. Hillebrand (Aarhus University) and Siem Jan Koopman (Free University of Amsterdam)
• Jesus Gonzalo (University Carlos III de Madrid) Long Term Climate Forecasts, with M.D. Gadea (University of Zaragoza)

12:45 - 13:45 Lunch break

13:45 15:00 CefES Keynote Lecture (Room U6/01f): S. Battiston (University of Zurich, UZH): Climate Risk and Financial Stability in the Network of Banks and Investment Funds Chair: I. Monasterolo (Vienna University of Business and Economics, Boston University & CefES)

15:00-17:00 Plenary Session 2 (Room U6/01f): Climate Finance Chair: L. Alessi (JCR-European Commission & CefES)

• Irene Monasterolo (Vienna University of Economics and Business, Boston University & CefES) A climate risk assessment of sovereign bonds' portfolio, with S. Battiston (University of Zurich)
• Luca De Angelis (University of Bologna) Blind to carbon risk? An analysis of stock market’s reaction to the Paris agreement, with I. Monasterolo (Vienna University of Economics and Business, Boston University & CefES)
• Claudio Morana (University of Milano-Bicocca & CefES) Climate change implications for the catastrophe bonds market: An empirical analysis, with G. Sbrana (NEOMA Business School)
• Eric Strobl (University of Bern) Diversification of hurricane risk and model uncertainty in catastrophe markets, with A. Heinen (University of Cergy-Pontoise))
• Lucia Alessi (JCR-European Commission & CefES) The Greenium matters: Evidence on the pricing of climate risk, with E. Ossola (JCR-European Commission) and R. Panzica (JCR-European Commission))

17:00-17.30 Coffee break

17:30 - 19:30 Plenary Session 3 (Room U6/01f): Climate Econometrics II Chair: D. J. Dupuis (HEC Montréal)

• Dukpa Kim (Korea University) Statistical tests of a simple energy balance equation in a synthetic model of cotrending and cointegration, with J. L. Carrion-i-Silvestre (University of Barcelona)
• Bjornar Karlsen Kivedal (Ostfold University College) Investigating international spillovers for CO2 emissions in the GVAR model
• Luca Trapin (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore-Milano) Ground-level ozone: Evidence of increasing serial dependence in the extremes, with D. J. Dupuis (HEC Montréal)
• Malcolm Mistry (Ca' Foscari University of Venice) High-resolution global gridded datasets of climate extreme indicators for econometric impacts assessment
• Josue M. Polanco-Martinez (University of the Basque Country). A multi-variate and multi-scale analysis of the dynamic relationship between climate variables during past, present and future climate changes, with M. Medina-Elizalde (Auburn University), J. Fernandez-Macho (University of the Basque Country) and M. Brener (University of Florida)

19:45 -22:30 Conference dinner

Friday August 30 2019

8:15 – Registration Opens: Atrium near Room U6/01f, Ground Floor Building U6

8:45-10:45 Plenary Session 4 (Room U6/01f): Climate Economics I Chair: L. Bonacorsi (European Institute on Economics and the Environment- EIEE)

• Sven Kunze (Heidelberg University) Living on the stormy side? Exposure to tropical cyclones and human settlements, with E. Strobl (University of Bern)
• Simone Maxand (University of Helsinki) Economic growth, energy consumption and carbon emissions: Evidence from statistically identified panel SVARs
• Olivier Damette (University of Lorraine) Reexamining the growth effects of ENSO: the role of local weather conditions, with C. Couharde, R. Generoso, K. Mohaddes
• Laura Bonacorsi (European Institute on Economics and the Environment- EIEE), Environmental Policy and International Trade: Evidence from Structural Gravity, with Elena Verdolini (University of Brescia and EIEE)

10:45-11.15 Coffee break

11:15 -13:15 Plenary Session 5 (Room U6/01f): Climate Econometrics III Chair: M. Bennedsen (Aarhus University)

• Andrew Harvey (Cambridge University) Modeling directional (circular) time series, with S. Hurn (QUT University) and S. Thiele (QUT University)
• J. Isaac (Zack) Miller (University of Missouri) Testing cointegrating relationships using irregular and non-contemporaneous series with an application to paleoclimate data
• Luke Jackson (University of Oxford) Using econometric cointegration methods to build an ice sheet emulator, with A. Martinez (University of Oxford) and F. Pretis (University of Victoria)
• Marco Gallegati (Università Politecnica delle Marche) Evaluation of CMIP5 global climate models using wavelets

13:15 - 14:15 Lunch break

14:15-15:30 EIEE-CMCC Keynote Lecture: E. Scoccimarro (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change - CMCC): Tropical cyclones in a changing climate Chair: C. Morana (University of Milano-Bicocca & CefES)

15:30-17:30 Parallel Session 6

Room U6/01e: Climate Change and Environmental Policy Chair: D. Baiardi (University of Parma)

• Paolo Maranzano (University of Milano-Bicocca) The impact on air quality of a new traffic policy in Milan: preliminary results, with M. Pelagatti (University of Milano-Bicocca), A. Fassò (University of Bergamo) & Manfred Mudelsee (Climate Risk Analysis, DE)
• Antonio Musolesi (University of Ferrara) A semiparametric analysis of green inventions and environmental policies, with M. Mazzanti (University of Ferrara)
• Emilia Pezzolla (Prometeia) Climate-change adaptation: The role of fiscal policy, with Lorenzo Forni (Università degli Studi di Padova), Michele Catalano (Prometeia)
• Ryan Rafaty (University of Oxford) Has carbon pricing reduced aggregate CO2 emissions? Evidence from OECD countries, with G. Dolphin (University of Cambridge)
• Donatella Baiardi (University of Parma), Do sustainable energy policies matter for reducing greenhouse gas emissions? A counterfactual analysis for the Italian provinces

Room U6/01f: Socio-Demographic Implications of Climate Change Chair: C. Binelli (University of Milano-Bicocca & CefES)

• Isabel Hovdahl (Norwegian University of Science and Technology) Temperature variability and mortality
• Anthony Heyes (University of Ottawa) Heat and the ability to work, with S.S aberian (University of Manitoba)
• Maria Alsina-Pujols (University of Zurich) Climate Change, Immigration and carbon taxes
• Chiara Binelli (University of Milano-Bicocca & CefES) Weather change or climate change? Explaining American public opinion on global warming using improved measures of local climate changes, with M. Loveless (University of Bologna)

17:30-18.00 Coffee break

18:00 - 19:30 Parallel Speed Session 7

Room U6/01e: Climate Econometrics IV Chair: S. Martins (University of Oxford)

• Lotanna Emediegwu (University of Manchester) The way up is (not) down: Assessing the (a)symmetric effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation on food prices in Eastern Africa
• Denitsa Angelova (Technical University of Munich ), Econometric evaluation of the impacts of climate change on European agricultural crop production, with H. Munawar (Technical University of Munich)
• Debbie J. Dupuis (HEC Montréal), Testing for a structural break in the duration of extreme temperature exceedances in New York City, with L. Trapin (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)
• Michele Moretti (University of Antwerp) Accounting for negative externalities in cross-sectional economic models of climate change impacts
• Meng Han (University of Groningen) Convenience yield and its predictive power on carbon spot prices: Evidence from the EU ETS, with Lammertjan Dam (University of Groningen)
• Khadija Merzougui (University of Naples Parthenope) Investigating the Inequality-environment relationship in a dynamic perspective, with A. Sapio(University of Naples Parthenope)
• Michele Costola (SAFE - Goethe University) Buildings' Energy Efficiency and the Probability of Mortgage Default: The Dutch Case, with M. Billio (Ca' Foscari University of Venice), L. Pelizzon (Ca' Foscari University of Venice and SAFE) & M. Riedel (SAFE - Goethe University Frankfurt)
• Susana Martins (University of Oxford) Modelling volatility interactions in multivariate GARCH models with multiplicative decomposition

Room U6/01f: Climate Economics II: Chair: M. Carratù (University of Naples Parthenope)

• Mohammad T. Islam (Bangladesh University of Professionals) Impact of climate change on agricultural production in Bangladesh: A spatiotemporal study, with Md Mahedi Hasan (Washington State University) and N. Sultana (Bangladesh University of Professionals)
• Moufida Serkouh (University of Casablanca). Climate change and the requirements of risk-management strategies: Example of floods in Guelmim Morocco
• Malcolm Mistry (Ca' Foscari University of Venice) Crop and conflict: exploring the impact of Inequality in agricultural production on conflict risk, with M. Kovacic (Ca' Foscari University of Venice) & P. Vesco (CMCC and Ca' Foscari University of Venice).
• Demetrio Panarello (Parthenope University of Naples) The environmental impact of financial insecurity and conservatism in Germany
• Rabah Belabbas (University of Msila) Environment pollution and economic growth an empirical study the case of North Africa countries, with A. Boukhers (Univesrity of Msila)
• Gianluigi Cisco (University of Naples Parthenope) Climate justice in an intergenerational sustainability framework: An OLG model, with A. Gatto (Greenwich University)
• Elkhan Richard Sadik-Zada (Ruhr-Universität Bochum) Climate justice for all. Climate change adaptation for vulnerables in a context of inter-generational sustainability, with A. Gatto (University of Greenwich)
• Maria Carratù (University of Naples Parthenope) Effects of European Unit Allowance auctions on corporate profitability, with B. Chiarini (University of Naples Parthenope) & P. Piselli (Bank of Italy)

Andrew Harvey (Cambridge University) ach34@cam.ac.uk

Angela Wenham (University of Oxford) angela.wenham@nuffield.ox.ac.uk

Anthony Heyes (University of Ottawa) Aheyes@uottawa.ca

Antonio Musolesi (University of Ferrara) mslntn@unife.it

Bjornar Karlsen Kivedal (Ostfold University College) bjornark@hiof.no

Chiara Binelli (University of Milano-Bicocca) chiara.binelli@unimib.it

Claudio Morana (University of Milano-Bicocca) claudio.morana@unimib.it

David Hendry (University of Oxford) david.hendry@nuffield.ox.ac.uk

Debbie J. Dupuis (HEC Montréal) debbie.dupuis@hec.ca

Demetrio Panarello (Parthenope University of Naples) demetrio.panarello@uniparthenope.it

Denitsa Angelova (Technical University of Munich) denitsa.angelova@tum.de

Donatella Baiardi (University of Parma) donatella.baiardi@unipr.it

Dukpa Kim (Korea University) dukpakim@korea.ac.kr

Elkhan Richard Sadik-Zada (Ruhr-Universität Bochum) ers61@cam.ac.uk

Emilia Pezzolla (Prometeia) emilia.pezzolla@prometeia.com

Enrico Scoccimarro (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change - CMCC) enrico.scoccimarro@cmcc.it

Eric Hillebrand (Aarhus University) ehillebrand@econ.au.dk

Eric Strobl (University of Bern) eastrobl13@gmail.com

Fabio Bellini (University of Milano-Bicocca) fabio.bellini@unimib.it

Gianluigi Cisco (University of Naples) Parthenope gianluigi.cisco@uniparthenope.it

Ilia Negri (University of Bergamo) ilia.negri@unibg.it

Irene Monasterolo (Vienna University of Economics and Business & Boston University) irene.monasterolo@wu.ac.at

Isabel Hovdahl (Norwegian University of Science and Technology) isabel.hovdahl@ntnu.no

J. Isaac (Zack) Miller (University of Missouri) millerjisaac@missouri.edu

Jesus Gonzalo (University Carlos III de Madrid) jesus.gonzalo@uc3m.es

Jonas Kurle (University of Oxford) jonas.kurle@stx.ox.ac.uk

Josue M. Polanco-Martinez (University of the Basque Country) josue.m.polanco@gmail.com

Jurgen Doornik (University of Oxford) jurgen@doornik.com

Khadija Merzougui (University of Naples Parthenope) khadija.merzougui@uniparthenope.it

Laura Bonacorsi (European Institute on Econmics and the Environment- Milan) laura.bonacorsi@eiee.org

Lola Gadea Rivas (University of Zaragoza) lgadea@unizar.es

Lotanna Emediegwu (University of Manchester) lotanna.emediegwu@manchester.ac.uk

Luca De Angelis (University of Bologna) l.deangelis@unibo.it

Luca Trapin (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore Milano) luca.trapin@unicatt.it

Lucia Alessi (JCR-European Commission) lucia.alessi@ec.europa.eu

Luke Jackson (University of Oxford) luke.jackson@nuffield.ox.ac.uk

Malcolm Mistry Ca' Foscari University of Venice malcolm.mistry@unive.it

Marco Gallegati (Università Politecnica delle Marche) marco.gallegati@univpm.it

Maria Alsina-Pujols (University of Zurich) maria.alsinapujols@econ.uzh.ch

Maria Carratù (University of Naples Parthenope) maria.carratu@uniparthenope.it

Massimiliano Mazzanti (University of Ferrara) mzzmsm@unife.it

Matthew Loveless (University of Bologna) m2loveless@gmail.com

Meng Han (University of Groningen) m.han@rug.nl

Michele Costola (SAFE - Goethe University) costola@safe.uni-frankfurt.de

Michele Moretti (University of Antwerp) michele.moretti@uantwerpen.be

Mikkel Bennedsen (Aarhus University) mbennedsen@econ.au.dk

Mohammad Tauhidul Islam (Bangladesh University of Professionals) tauhid3231@yahoo.com

Moritz Schwarz (University of Oxford) moritz.schwarz@ouce.ox.ac.uk

Moufida Serkouh (University of Casablanca) serkouhmoufida@gmail.com

Olena Zhytkevych (The American University of Technology) elena.zhitkevich@gmail.com

Olivier Damette (University of Lorraine) olivier.damette@gmail.com

Paolo Maranzano (University of Milano-Bicocca) p.maranzano@campus.unimib.it

Rabah Belabbas (University of Msila) rabah.belabbas@univ-msila.dz

Robert Kaufmann (Boston University) Kaufmann@bu.edu

Ryan Rafaty (University of Oxford) ryan.rafaty@nuffield.ox.ac.uk

Sebastian Jensen (Aarhus University) smjensen@econ.au.dk

Simone Maxand (University of Helsinki) simone.maxand@helsinki.fi

Stefano Battiston (University of Zurich) stefano.battiston@uzh.ch

Susana Martins (University of Oxford) scmartins@eeg.uminho.pt

Sven Kunze (Heidelberg University) sven.kunze@awi.uni-heidelberg.de

Timo Teräsvirta (CREATES - University of Aarhus) tterasvirta@econ.au.dk