Adapting to a new normal

Josh Mekler

April 24, 2020

During times of uncertainty, our community is challenged to think differently and to adapt to new situations. Understanding the potential outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic and adjusting to a new normal is critical toward reducing the spread of the virus and limiting the burden on our healthcare system.

These new normals come with inevitable difficulties. We collectively experience grief for our old ways of normalcy but must look together to create new normals in which we embrace change, inclusivity, and build upon our resilient community.

As of April 23, 2020, the U.S. has reported 802,583 cases of COVID-19 with 44,575 deaths. To put these numbers in perspective, the number of people infected with COVID-19 in the U.S. is higher than the record-setting opening weekend at the 2019 Minnesota State Fair. Hennepin County has had 1,073 confirmed cases and 113 deaths. Most recent predictions indicate that the death toll in Minnesota will range anywhere from 9,000 to 36,000 deaths with current measures in place.

What may the new normal look like in our community during this pandemic? Researchers at Harvard University have used the term ‘intermittent social distancing’ as a potential normality. This term refers to enacting social distancing measures within a community when infections rise above a given limit. The study, published in the journal Science, predicts several scenarios regarding the spread of COVID-19 over the next five years. The possible scenarios from the research include:

  1. If the community experiences cross-immunity from other viruses, COVID-19 could disappear only to re-emerge by 2024. Cross-immunity to COVID-19 refers to your body’s ability to fight off the virus because your body previously created antibodies — your body's defense mechanism against germs — to viruses that look and behave similar to COVID-19.

  2. If the community is able to develop short term immunity to the virus, outbreaks are likely to occur once a year. Immunity to the virus lasting no more than 10 months is considered short term immunity.

  3. If the community as a whole develops immunity to COVID-19 lasting for 2 years, outbreaks will occur every other year.

  4. If the community does not develop any form of immunity, one-time physical distancing measures from April - July 1, 2020 will only delay the true peak of COVID-19 cases until fall 2020.

Another new normal is wearing a mask while in public. Masks reduce the ability to transmit COVID-19 from person to person even when an individual is not experiencing symptoms. While there is no consensus on the duration that we as a society should wear masks, current recommendations are to wear a mask in public. There are a variety of mask options available, however, cloth face coverings are recommended for the general public as other types of masks (N95 or surgical) should be reserved for healthcare workers.

During this time of uncertainty, many have experienced disruptions to their everyday living. To date, a staggering 22 million Americans have filed for unemployment in the past 4 weeks — unprecedented numbers not seen even during the Great Depression. In Minnesota, 20% of all Minnesotans have experienced some form of job loss. While there is a sense of loss for our old ways of normalcy, communities have been stepping up and finding and filling new needs within our community.

At the University of Minnesota Medical School, medical students created MN COVIDsitters: a volunteer service to provide free childcare and errand services to healthcare workers working on the frontline of the COVID-19 pandemic. Similarly, local hospital systems have implemented video conferencing services to provide quality healthcare to the community. These adaptations are just a few examples that demonstrate the resiliency and adaptability of our community.

Adapting to a new normal will limit the spread of COVID-19 within our community and reduce the strain on healthcare resources. A report by the Minnesota Department of Health in partnership with the University of Minnesota School of Public Health demonstrates that stay at home measures have flattened the curve and reduced potential exposure to the virus by 80 percent. Their model also predicts that extending stay at home orders for all will further reduce the hospital demand and number of deaths within the community.

As individuals, we are responsible for the wellbeing of our community. Adjusting to a new normal of life during the COVID-19 pandemic limits the spread of the virus and reduces the burden on healthcare resources within our community.