Implicates as Instrumental Variables: An Approach for Estimation and Inference with Probabilistically Matched Data, with Matthew D. Shapiro. Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology (2023). Preprint pdf.
Breaking the Implicit Contract: Using Pension Freezes to Study Lifetime Labor Supply. Conditionally Accepted at Journal of Political Economy: Macroeconomics
Bad Times, Bad Jobs? How Recessions Affect Early Career Trajectories, with Parag Mahajan and Heiko Stüber. Conditionally Accepted at Journal of Labor Economics
Society of Labor Economists 2019 Fellows Award for Best Poster (Careers and Wages)
Finding Needles in Haystacks: Multiple-Imputation Record Linkage Using Machine Learning, with John M. Abowd, Joelle Abramowitz, Margaret C. Levenstein, Kristin McCue, Trivellore Raghunathan, Ann M. Rodgers, Matthew D. Shapiro, Nada Wasi, and Dawn Zinnser. Revise and Resubmit (2nd round) at Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A
This paper considers the problem of record linkage between a household-level survey and an establishment-level frame in the absence of unique identifiers. Linkage between frames in this setting is challenging because the distribution of employment across establishments is highly skewed. To address these difficulties, this paper develops a probabilistic record linkage methodology that combines machine learning (ML) with multiple imputation (MI). This ML-MI methodology is applied to link survey respondents in the Health and Retirement Study to their workplaces in the Census Business Register. The linked data reveal new evidence that non-sampling errors in household survey data are correlated with respondents' workplace characteristics.
The Impact of Government Transfer Payment Frequency on Consumption: Evidence from Delayed UI , with Michael Gelman and Zachary Orlando. Revise and Resubmit at Journal of Public Economics.
We study how the frequency of government transfer payments affects spending behavior. Our empirical approach uses transaction-level data on income and spending and exploits quasi-random delays in the receipt of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. Spending drops by about half of the loss in income that occurs while individuals wait for UI benefits, revealing the value of periodic payments for liquidity-constrained individuals. Once delayed payments are received as lump sums, individuals reallocate spending toward less commonly purchased big-ticket categories that are dominated by durables. Our findings suggest that transfer programs with mixed frequencies, such as advance disbursements of lump-sum tax credits, can be beneficial to recipients.
The Effects of Increasing the Full Retirement Age on Retirement Savings: Evidence from U.S. Tax Data, with Victoria Bryant, Jonathan M. Leganza, and Ellen Stuart.
What do Revealed Preference-Based Workplace Amenities Measure? Evidence from Surveys Matched with Administrative Data, with Parag Mahajan and Heiko Stüber.
Coming Home: The Consequences of Deployment to Iraq and Afghanistan.
First version: October 2015. Revised May 2019.
This study estimates the causal effect of recent military service in Iraq and Afghanistan by exploiting plausibly exogenous deployment policies. Veterans transitioning to the civilian labor market from war-zone deployments exhibit unemployment rates that are at least 5.2 percentage points higher than those transitioning from non-war-zone deployments. Driven by increases in cognitive and sensory difficulties, disability rates for veterans recently deployed to war-zones are at least 2.6 percentage points higher. These findings indicate that adverse labor market outcomes within the veteran population may arise for reasons other than lost civilian experience.