Program

Workshop Energy Transition and Climate Change

Sonesta Redondo Beach & Marina Hotel, Redondo Beach, CA September 27-28, 224

Detailed List of Sessions

Friday, September 27

Welcome Remarks
September 27 8:15 to 8:30
Location: Promenade

Session K1: Keynote 1: James Hamilton, UC San Diego

Uncovering Disaggregated Oil Market Dynamics: A Full-Information Approach to Granular Instrumental Variables
September 27 8:30 to 9:30
Location: Promenade

Session Chair: Marcelle Chauvet, UC Riverside, IAAE, RCEA

Session type: invited

Coffee Break
September 27 9:30 to 10:00

Location: Promenade Foyer

Session 1:  Geopolitical Risk, Climate Policy, and Oil Markets
September 27 10:00 to 11:45
Location: Promenade

Session Chair: Fredj Jawadi, Univ. Lille, France

Session type: contributed

1. Not All Energy Transitions Are Alike: Disentangling the Effects of Demand- and Supply-Side Climate Policies on Future Oil Prices

By Lukas Boer, International Monetary Fund

Andrea Pescatori, International Monetary Fund

Martin Stuermer, International Monetary Fund

   presented by:  Lukas Boer, International Monetary Fund

2. Reasons Behind Words: OPEC Narratives and the Oil Market

By Celso Brunetti, Federal Reserve Board

Marc Joets, IESEG School of Management

Valerie Mignon, University of Paris Nanterre and CEPII

   presented by: Marc Joets, IESEG School of Management

3. Revisiting the Relationship between Geopolitical Risk and Oil Price Realized Volatility: A Markov-Switching Analysis

By Marcelle Chauvet; UC Riverside, IAAE, RCEA

Fredj Jawadi, Univ. Lille

   presented by: Fredj Jawadi, Univ. Lille

4. How Do Political Tensions and Geopolitical Risks Impact Oil Prices

By Valérie Mignona, EconomiX-CNRS, University of Paris Nanterre, and CEPII

Jamel Saadaoui, University of Strasbourg, University of Lorraine

   presented by: Jamel Saadaoui, University of Strasbourg, University of Lorraine

Session 2: Changes in Emissions
September 27 10:00 to 11:45
Location: Palos Verdes

Session Chair: Hilde Bjornland, BI Norwegian School of Business

Session type: contributed

1. Different Shades of Green: Continuous Emissions-Based Scorings of U.S

By Elior Cohen, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Nida Çakır Melek, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

   presented by: Nida Çakır Melek; Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

2. Data-Driven Policy Insights: Efficiency and Pathways to Carbon Neutrality Strategies in Saudi Buildings

By Jeyhun Mikayilov, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC)

   presented by: By Jeyhun Mikayilov, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC)

3. The Drivers of Emission Reductions in the European Carbon Market*

By Hilde C. Bjørnland, CAMP, BI Norwegian School of Business

Jamie L. Cross, University of Melbourne

Felix Kapfhammer, CAMP, BI Norwegian School of Business

   presented by: Hilde C. Bjørnland, CAMP, BI Norwegian School of Business

4. Rethinking the Effects of the Acid Rain Program: Was It Effective in Reducing Emissions in the Long Run?

By Jaerim Choi, Yonsei University

Soojin Jo, Yonsei University

Brian H. Shin, Yonsei University

   presented by: Soojin Jo, Yonsei University

Lunch
September 27 11:45 to 13:15

Location: Sol Restaurant

Session 3:  Climate Risk and Asset Pricing I
September 27 13:15 to 15:00
Location: Promenade

Session Chair: Claudio Morana, University of Milano-Bicocca, CefES, RCEA

Session type: contributed

1. U.S. Banks’ Exposures to Climate Transition Risks

By Hyeyoon Jung, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Joao A. C. Santos, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Nova School of Business and Economics

Lee Seltzer, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

   presented by: Joao A. C. Santos, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Nova School of Business and Economics

2. Climate Disaster Risk and Stock Returns

By Murilo Silva, University of California Riverside

   presented by: Murilo Silva, University of California Riverside

3. Climate Change Salience and International Equity Returns

By David Parsley, Vanderbilt University

Helen Popper, Santa Clara University

   presented by: Helen Popper,  Santa Clara University

4. Green Risk in Europe

By Nuno Cassola, University of Lisbon, Center for European Studies (CefES)

Claudio Morana, University of Milano-Bicocca, Center for European Studies (CefES), The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA-Europe ETS; RCEA)

Elisa Ossola, University of Milano-Bicocca, Center for European Studies (CefES), Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA)

   presented by: Claudio Morana, University of Milano-Bicocca, CefES, RCEA

Session 4: Climate Policies
September 27 13:15 to 15:00
Location: Palos Verdes

Session Chair: Susana Campos-Martins, Catholic University of Portugal

Session type: contributed

1. What Does it Take to Control Global Temperatures? A Toolbox for and Estimating the Impact of Economic Policies on Climate

By Guillaume Chevillon, ESSEC Business School
Takamitsu Kurita, Kyoto Sangyo University

   presented by: Guillaume Chevillon, ESSEC Business School

2. Central Banks and Sustainability: A Comprehensive Review of Green Mandates, Speeches, and Actions

By Cédric Crofils, University Paris-Dauphine

Nicolás Durán, University of Chile, Santiago,

Javier Ledezma, Central Bank of Chile

Víctor Riquelme, Central Bank of Chile

Juan M. Wlasiuk, Central Bank of Chile

   presented by: Juan M. Wlasiuk, Central Bank of Chile

3. On the Credibility of the 2015 Paris Agreement and Effectiveness of Climate Policies

By Susana Campos-Martins, Catholic University of Portugal

David F. Hendry, University of Oxford.

   presented by: By Susana Campos-Martins, Catholic University of Portugal

4. Mandatory Climate Adaptation: Evidence from Firms and Workplace Safety

By R. Jisung Park, University of Pennsylvania

Nora M.C. Pankratz, Federal Reserve Board

A. Patrick Behrer, World Bank

   presented by: Nora M.C. Pankratz, Federal Reserve Board

Coffee Break
September 27 15:00 to 15:30

Session 5: Economic Impact of Climate Change

September 27 15:30 to 16:50
Location: Promenade

Session Chair: Yoosoon Chang, Indiana University, Bloomington

Session type: contributed

1. How do Macroeconomic Expectations React to Extreme Weather Shocks?    

By Andrew B. Martinez, U.S. Department of the Treasury

   presented by: Andrew B. Martinez, U.S. Department of the Treasury

2. Shocking Climate: Identifying Economic Damages from Anthropogenic and Natural Climate Change

By  Yoosoon Chang, Indiana University

J. Isaac Miller, University of Missouri

Joon Y. Park, Indiana University

   presented by: Yoosoon Chang, Indiana University

3. Extreme Weather and Low-Income Household Finance: Evidence from Payday Loans

By Shihan Xie, University of Illinois

Victoria Wenxin Xie, Santa Clara University

Xu Zhang, Bank of Canada

   presented by: Shihan Xie, University of Illinois

Session 6: Climate Change and Temperature Levels
September 27 15:30 to 16:50
Location: Palos Verdes

Session Chair: J. Isaac Miller, University of Missouri

Session type: contributed

1. Forecasting Global Temperatures by Exploiting Cointegration with Radiative Forcing

By Luca Benati, University of Bern

   presented by: Luca Benati, University of Bern

2. Synergies Between Current and Future Warming Levels and ENSO Episodes on Extreme Events

By Francisco Estrada, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

Pierre Perron, Vrije Universiteit

Yohei Yamamoto, Hitotsubashi University

   presented by: Yohei Yamamoto, Hitotsubashi University

3. Polar Amplification Helps Forecast Northern Temperature Anomalies

By William A. Brock, University of Wisconsin

J. Isaac Miller; University of Missouri

   presented by: J. Isaac Miller; University of Missouri

Break
September 27 16:50 to 17:00

Session K2: Keynote 2: Michael Bauer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Corporate Green Pledges

September 27 17:00 to 18:00
Location: Promenade

Session Chair: Yoosoon Chang, Indiana University

Session type: invited

Conference Dinner
September 27 18:30 to 20:30

Saturday, September 28

Session K3: Keynote 3: Nancy Wallace, University of California Berkeley

The Wildfire Risk of California Residential Real Estate: Casualty Insurance, Risk Measurement, and Mitigation Policies
September 28 8:30 to 9:30
Location: Promenade

Session Chair: Hilde Bjordland, CAMP, BI Norwegian Business School

Session type: invited

Coffee Break
September 28 9:30 to 10:00

Session 7: Inflation, Economic Activity, and Oil Market Dynamics
September 28 10:00 to 11:45
Location: Promenade

Session Chair: Joao Issler, FGV EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance

Session type: contributed

1. Unveiling Inflation: Oil Shocks, Supply Chain Pressures, and Expectations Post-COVID

By Knut Are Aastveit, Norges Bank & BI Norwegian School of Business

Hilde C. Bjørnland, CAMP, BI Norwegian School of Business

Jamie L. Cross, University of Melbourne

Helene O. Kalstad, BI Norwegian School of Business

   presented by: Knut Are Aastveit, Norges Bank & BI Norwegian School of Business

2. Renewable Energy Eases Oil-Driven Inflation

By Huanhuan Zheng, National University of Singapore

   presented by: Huanhuan Zheng, National University of Singapore

3. Determinants of Long-term Oil Prices: Market Fundamentals and a Structural Analysis of Transitory and Permanent Drivers

By Daniel Cuzzi, FGV EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance

Joao Issler, FGV EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance

Yihao Li, FGV EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance

   presented by: Daniel Cuzzi, FGV EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance

4. Predicting U.S. Recessions in Real Time in a Big-Data Setting

By Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, Banco Central do Brasil

Osmani Teixeira C. Guillen, Banco Central do Brasil

Joao Issler, FGV EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance

Artur Brasil Fialho Rodrigues, FGV EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance

Farshid Vahid-Araghi, Monash University

   presented by: Joao Issler, FGV EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance

Session 8: Electricity Markets
September 28 10:00 to 11:45
Location: Palos Verdes

Session Chair: Francesco Ravazzolo, BI Norwegian Bus. School/Free-Univ. of Bozen-Bolzano

Session type: contributed

1. Using Machine Learning to Identify and Extract Climate-Driven Fluctuations in Peak Electricity Demand

By Yongok Choi, Chung-Ang University
Yoosoon Chang, Indiana University

Joon Y. Park, Indiana University

   presented by: Yongok Choi, Chung-Ang University

2. The Impact of Feed-in Tariffs on Household Energy Demand

By  J. Hirschberg, University of Melbourne

J. Lye, University of Melbourne

   presented by: J. Hirschberg, University of Melbourne

3. Integration of energy electricity markets in a reverse mixed-frequency panel

By Francesco Ravazzolo, BI Norwegian Bus. School/Free-Univ. of Bozen-Bolzano

Luca Rossini, University of Milan and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

Andrea Viselli, University of Milan and University of Pavia

   presented by Francesco Ravazzolo, BI Norwegian Bus. School/Free-Univ. of Bozen-Bolzano

4. Water as a Commodity in Hydropower Generation

By Isabel Figuerola-Ferretti, Universidad Ponticia de Comillas

Eduardo Schwartz, Simon Fraser University

Ignacio Segarra, Universidad Ponticia de Comillas

   presented by Isabel Figuerola-Ferretti, Universidad Ponticia de Comillas

Session 9: Economic Impact of Climate Change II
September 28 13:15 to 15:00
Location: Promenade

Session Chair: Daniel Wilson, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Session type: contributed

1. Does Climate Change Adaptation Matter? Evidence from the City on the Water

By Matteo Benetton, University of California Berkeley

Simone Emiliozzi, Bank of Italy, Rome

Elisa Guglielminetti, Bank of Italy, Rome

Michele Loberto, Bank of Italy, Rome

Alessandro Mistretta Benetton, Bank of Italy, Rome

   presented by: Matteo Benetton, University of California Berkeley

2. Climate-Resilient Economic Development in Vietnam: Insights from a Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis (DGE-CRED)

By Andrej Drygalla, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)

Katja Heinisch, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)

Christoph Schult, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)

   presented by: Christoph Schult, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)

3. Climate Change and the Geography of the U.S. Economy

By Sylvain Leduc, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Daniel Wilson, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

   presented by: Daniel Wilson, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

4. Climate Change, Regional Weather and Economic Activity in the Global North: The Case of Germany

By Sukanya Mukherjee, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)

Oliver Holtemoller, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg and Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)

   presented by: Sukanya Mukherjee, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)

Session 10: Climate Risk and Asset Pricing
September 28 13:15 to 15:00
Location: Palos Verdes

Session Chair: Sinian Zheng, University College Dublin

Session type: contributed

1. Empirical Research on ESG Factor-Optimized Asset Pricing and Multifactor Models

By Sinian Zheng, University College Dublin

Valerio Poti, University College Dublin

Alessia Paccagnini, University College Dublin

   presented by: Sinian Zheng, University College Dublin

2. Climate Risk Diversification Through Securitization

By Matthew E. Kahn, University of Southern California

Amine Ouazad; Rutgers University

Erkan Yönder, Concordia University

   presented by: Amine Ouazad; Rutgers University

3. Verified Climate Action in Equity Transition Finance

By Shifu Jiang, Hong Kong Monetary Authority

   presented by: Shifu Jiang, Hong Kong Monetary Authority

Coffee Break
September 28 15:00 to 15:30

Session 11: Energy Transition
September 28 15:30 to 16:50
Location: Promenade

Session Chair: Valerie Mercer-Blackman, World Bank

Session type: contributed

1. Gas Price Shocks and the Inflation Surge in Europe

By Daniele Colombo, London Business School

Francesco Toni, Universite Cote d’Azur

   presented by: Francesco Toni, Universite Cote d’Azur

2. Economic Impacts of the Green Transition: Evidence from Korean Gas Stations

By Ian Choi, Yonsei University

Soojin Jo, Yonsei University

Jaehyeok Lee, Yonsei University

Myungkyu Shim, Yonsei University

   presented by: Myungkyu Shim, Yonsei University

3. The Long Shadow of the Energy Transition on Commodity Markets: Risks and Opportunities

By Paolo Agnolucci, World Bank

Valerie Mercer-Blackman, World Bank

   presented by: Valerie Mercer-Blackman, World Bank

Session 12: Policy, Energy, and Climate Change
September 28 15:30 to 16:50
Location: Palos Verdes

Session Chair: Dongwon Lee, University of California Riverside

Session type: contributed

1. Fifty Shades of Green: Central Bank Communication about Climate Change and Inflation Expectations

By Jana Grittersova, University of California Riverside

Eleonora Mavroedi, Bloomberg Paris

Murilo Silva, University of California Riverside)

   presented by: Jana Grittersova, University of California Riverside

2. Policy Choices and Oil Price Pass-through into Inflation

By Dongwon Lee, University of California Riverside

   presented by: Dongwon Lee, University of California Riverside

3. Oil Volatility and Economic Uncertainty

By Marcelle Chauvet, University of California Riverside, IAAE, RCEA

   presented by: Marcelle Chauvet, University of California Riverside, IAAE, RCEA

Break
September 28 16:50 to 17:00

Session K4: Keynote 4: Marcelo Sant’Anna, FGV EPGE

Corporate Efficient Conservation of the Brazilian Amazon

September 28 17:00 to 18:00
Location: Promenade

Session Chair: Joao Issler, FGV EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance

Session type: invited

Night Out
September 28 18:30