Does Climate Change Really Affect Forest Fires in Canada?

Project Summary

Fig 1: A wildfire began southwest of Fort McMurray, Alberta (Nemis 2017).

Climate change will affect the ecological structure and function of forests. At the same time, studies in various countries have also proved and predicted that current and future climate change will increase the possibility of fire disturbance. Fire disturbance is one of the most important disturbances in Canadian forests, and it has an important impact on the healthy development of forests. Therefore, in this project, I will explore climate-related precipitation, average temperature, maximum temperature, climate humidity index, and climate moisture deficit. I will also explore trends in the number of fires and the area burned over the past 36 years, as well as in which ecozones the fires are frequent. In general, I found that the number of fires and the area burned are strongly related to ecozones, which are more prone to fires and large-scale fires in the Boreal forest ecosystem. Changes in climatic conditions in the months before the fire also made the fire traceable. From the change trend of climatic conditions before the fire, it can be known that the mean temperature, the maximum mean temperature, and the climatic moisture deficit all increased; the climatic moisture index and the precipitation decreased. Finally, through correlation analysis, it is further proved that the increase in temperature and decrease in humidity caused by climate change are the reasons for the frequent occurrence of forest fires.