3.13 Probability concepts

Walkthrough of the standard (Study time)

Some basic concepts : Addition rule, multiplication rule, trees, tables, Complementary events, Mutually exclusive events, independent events (S-cool)

Probability (and frequency) trees

How to create a probability tree from context

How to calculate any probability once you made a probability tree

Worked example 1 (L2 and L3) (Mr Fahlander)

Worked example 2 (L2 and L3) (Mr Fahlander

Worked example 3 (L2 and L3) (Mr Fahlander)

Worked example 4 (L2 and L3) (Mr Fahlander)

Using trees without "replacement" (Ron Barrow)

Conditional probability, relative risk and expected values (Study time)

Probability (and frequency) tables

How to make and use a frequency table to calculate probabilities (L2 and L3) (Mr Fahlander)

How to use a table to calculate expected values (L2 and L3) (Mr Fahlander)

How to calculate relative risk (L2 and L3) (Mr Fahlander)

How to calculate the mean (aka expected value) and the variance/sd from a probability table (L3)

Example: Calculate mean from table (L3)

New skills and concepts at level 3

Basic notation (it will save us time).

Double and triple Venn diagrams (new at level 3)

Double Venn question: find P(A' U B) (Mr Fahlander)

Triple Venn question from EP (Mr Fahlander)

Some worked examples from Walker maths: Simulations + mixed applications

Q3a page 79 Simulation (Mr Fahlander)

Q3b page 79 Simulations (Mr Fahlander)

Q3c page 79 Simulations (Mr Fahlander)

Q3d page 79 Simulations (Mr Fahlander)

Q3e page 79 Simulations (Mr Fahlander)

Q3f page 79 Simulations (Mr Fahlander)

Exam questions

Q2b1 2019 Conditional probability in Probability tree.

2013 years exam: Q1, Q2, Q3