Research

Working Papers

"The Urban Paradox: How Remote Work Drives Out-Migration and Rising Rents in Dense U.S. Cities" with Adam Ozimek, Revise and resubmit at Real Estate Economics (copy available here)

Abstract: If remote work has reduced the demand for living in big cities, then why have their rents gone up so much? In this paper, we argue that one key to this question lies in understanding the heterogeneous effects of remote work on housing demand. Consistent with the emerging literature, we show that remote work in expensive and dense places causes less housing demand through out-migration, which helps to explain why big cities have seen declining population and relatively weaker rents and house prices. However, we show that is counterbalanced by remote work also causing a surge in household formation. Methodologically, this paper adds to the growing  body of remote work literature by being the first to use actual, post-pandemic remote work rates at a granular level as an instrumental variable. At the individual level, we utilize occupation and industry fixed-effect IVs, and at local housing market level we utilize a shift-share approach. The causal effect of remote work on housing markets is consistent with OLS, suggesting modestly larger effects for both individual and housing market models. 


"International Firms and COVID-19: Evidence from a Global Survey" with Floriana Borino, Valentina Rollo, and Olga Solleder, revise and resubmit at Review of World Economics  (copy available here)

Abstract: This paper investigates whether international exposure played a role in how companies were impacted and which strategies they used in response to the COVID-19 crisis. Our conceptual framework generates two testable hypotheses. First, international firms are more likely to be affected, both through demand and supply channels, than domestic firms due to their exposure to domestic and foreign lockdowns. Second, despite higher exposure, we expect international firms to be more resilient to the crisis than domestic firms. The resilience of international firms stems from their connectivity and productivity. Our empirical analysis corroborates both sets of hypotheses. The tests are based on a unique firm-level data set covering 4,433 enterprises in 133 countries, collected by the International Trade Centre under the COVID-19 Business Impact Survey. At the policy level, the results underscore the importance of global connectedness and international trade for promoting resilience to external shocks.


"Trade, Tasks, and Technology" (Job market paper)

Abstract: This paper is the first to estimate the effect of automation on American export growth. Following Autor and Dorn (2013), I exploit variation in the share of workers in automatable jobs across local labor markets. By comparing export and employment outcomes across local labor markets, this paper makes three main contributions. First, using an instrumental variables approach, I estimate that a 1 percentage point increase in automation exposure is associated with a 1.7 percentage point increase in the annual growth rate of exports. These results are similar in magnitude to the measured effects of regional trade agreements. Second, I show that the results are consistent with the United States gaining a comparative advantage in routine-intensive goods due to automation. Third, I develop a theoretical model to show how trade restrictions aimed at protecting unskilled workers ban have perverse effects in the presence of automated capital. At sufficiently high levels of automated capital, restrictions on trade from emerging markets lead to welfare losses for low-skilled workers in industrialized countries through the following mechanism. Automated capital, which substitutes for low-skilled labor, reduces the demand for low-skilled services. International trade increases product demand which offsets some of the competition with machines. Restricting trade hurts low-skilled workers because it reduces the demand for domestic products without reducing the domestic supply of automated capital.

Works in Progress

"Trade and Labor in the Computer Age: A Model of Technological Change and Inequality in the Global Economy"  (Copy available here)

Abstract: This paper develops a theoretical framework to evaluate the effects of automation on global patterns of trade and inequality. Using a simple North-South trade framework with task-based production, I compare how skill-biased technological change and labor-substituting technological change in the Global North affect within-country and between-country inequality. I also compare the effects of trade policy on the labor market of the Global North under each type of technological change. I show that when technology is skill-biased, the relative wages of skilled workers increase in the Global North and decrease in the Global South. When technology is skill-biased, the relative wages of skilled workers increase in both countries. In addition, I show that when technology is skill-biased, the welfare of low-skilled workers in the Global North is higher in the closed economy than in the open economy. However, when technology is labor-substituting, I show that the welfare of low-skilled workers is higher in the open economy than in the closed economy.

"Automation and the Gender Wage Gap"

Policy Reports

"Promoting SME Competitiveness in Benin. COVID-19: An Inclusive Path Towards Resilience" with Floriana Borino. International Trade Centre SME Competitiveness Outlook publications

Research Blog Posts

"Crafting the Future of Work: A Policy Framework for the Automation Age", EIG Analysis blog

"CHIPS off the Federal Funding Block: Using Data to Inform the Location of the 20 New Regional Innovation Hubs" with Adam Ozimek and Kenan Fikri

"The Uneven Geography of Remote Work" with Adam Ozimek. EIG Analysis blog

"International Firms: More Exposed but More Resilient During COVID-19" with Floriana Borino, Valentina Rollo, and Olga Solleder. VoxEU CEPR blog

In the Media

Molla, R. (2023, June 30). An Airbnb Collapse Won't Fix America's Housing Shortage. Vox

Badger, E., Gebeloff, R., and Katz, J. (2023, Jun 17). The Places Most Affected by Remote Workers’ Moves Around the Country. The New York Times

Rodriguez, J. (2023, May 10). Why are Rents Still Sky-High? Business Insider

Tankersley, J. (2022, December 5). ‘Innovation Hubs’ Aim to Lift Distressed Areas. Congress Just Has to Fund Them. The New York Times

Fox, J. (2022, October 5). Working From Home Is Not an Urban Escape Hatch. The Washington Post