Zidong An
Welcome! I am an Associate Professor of Economics at the Renmin University of China. Before that, I worked as a Research Officer at the IMF Research Department. I hold a Ph.D. in Economics from American University and an M.S. in Economics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. My research interests include Applied Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, and Time Series Econometrics.
My CV is available here.
What's New:
Inattention and the impact of monetary policy
Professional forecasters update their information sets every five months on average, but do so more frequently in response to high inflation and unemployment, as well as rising market volatility and policy uncertainty.
Monetary policy shocks have larger real effects when the degree of inattention is higher.
What's New:
What is the role of perceived oil price shocks in inflation expectations
Perceived oil price shock explains 10% of dynamics in global inflation expectations. It accounts for an even smaller fraction during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Perceived global supply and demand shocks dominate, especially since the pandemic.
Professionals switch views on the pandemic from demand to supply shock in early 2021.
Publications:
[1] Inattention and the impact of monetary policy, with Salem Abo-Zaid and Xuguang Sheng, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2023
[2] What is the role of perceived oil price shocks in inflation expectations? with Xuguang Sheng and Xinye Zheng, Energy Economics, 2023
[3] Diligent forecasters can make accurate predictions despite disagreeing with the consensus, with Xinye Zheng, Economic Modelling, 2023
[4] Gas price expectations of Chinese households, with Carola Binder and Xuguang Sheng, Energy Economics, 2023
[5] Financial reforms and capital accumulation in developing economies: New data and evidence, China Economic Review, 2023
[6] The buffering effect of higher education expansion on the Okun’s law in China, with Fan Hu, Review of Public Economics, 2023
[7] Reforming the world's largest heating system: Quasi-experimental evidence from China, with Manyu Wang, Ying Huang, and Chu Wei, Energy Economics, 2022
[8] The dynamic complementarity of renewable energy sources: A Bayesian vector autoregressive approach, with Jinliang Che, Ying Zheng, and Feng Song, International Journal of Green Energy, 2022.
[9] Elasticity of substitution between public and private capital: Evidence from manufacturing firms in Europe, with Feinan Zhang and Haibo Li, Economics Letters, 2022
[10] Okun’s Law and demographics: Differences across labor markets, with John Bluedorn and Gabriele Ciminelli, Applied Economics, 2022. Other versions: IMF Working Paper 21/270.
[11] Climate governance and business cycle: Okun's law of climate change (in Chinese), with Xinye Zheng and Shimei Wu, Economic Perspectives, 2022
[12] Expectation formation following pandemic events, with Dingqian Liu and Yuzheng, Economics Letters, 2021.
[13] On the performance of US fiscal forecasts: government vs. private information, with Joao Jalles, Journal of Economic Studies, 2020.
[14] One the substitution of private and public capital in production, with Alvar Kangur and Chris Papageorgiou, European Economic Review, 2019. [Data]
[15] Growth and jobs in developing economies: Trends and cycles, with Tayeb Ghazi and Nathalie Gonzalez Prieto, Open Economies Review, 2019. Other versions: IMF Working Paper 17/257.
[16] Do IMF forecasts respect Okun’s Law? Evidence for advanced and developing economies, with Laurence Ball, Joao Jalles, and Prakash Loungani, International Journal of Forecasting, 2019.
[17] An assessment of IMF’s unemployment forecasts, with Joao Jalles and Prakash Loungani, Manchester School, 2019.
[18] Do IMF fiscal forecasts add value? with Joao Jalles, Prakash Loungani, and Ricardo Sousa, Journal of Forecasting, 2018.
[19] How well do economists forecast recessions? with Joao Jalles and Prakash Loungani, International Finance, 2018. Other versions: IMF Working Paper 18/39. [Featured in Bloomberg] [Featured in Financial Times] [Featured in Investopedia]
Working Papers:
[1] Inattention and the Effects of Monetary Policy: New Empirical Evidence from the G7, with Xinye Zheng. [Under Review]
[2] The Persistence of Populism, with Chris Papageorgiou and Antonio Spilimbergo.
Policy Publications:
[1] Forecasting recoveries is difficult: Evidence from past recessions, with Prakash Loungani, VoxEU
[2] Improving Youth Labor Market Outcomes in Emerging Market and Developing Economies, with JaeBin Ahn, John Bluedorn, Gabriele Ciminelli, Zsoka Koczan, Davide Malacrino, Daniela Muhaj, and Patricia Neidlinger, IMF Staff Discussion Note 19/02, January 2019. Technical Appendices.
[3] Does Growth Create Jobs? Evidence for Advanced and Developing Economies, with Nathalie Gonzalez Prieto, Prakash Loungani and Saurabh Mishra, IMF Research Bulletin, September 2016
[4] International Jobs Report, with Prakash Loungani, OCP Policy Center, semiannual report.