3-Year Plan 2025-2027

This time I am publishing my "research agenda" on time :)

The theme of the next three years is still  "Global Warming Dynamic Games", a continuation of the past three years. I have made lots of progress with the foundation, CCEM (Coupling Course Earth Models), so I can now focus on Geopolitical Games 

The list of three topics looks like 2022, but now the order is reversed:

• • A web-app game to showcase evolutionary game theory applied to global warming

  • Global Warming Dynamic Games : a new model

  • CLAIRE4 as a server 

1. GWDG : Global Warming Dynamic Games

GWDG is a very old goal from mine (almost two decades). I am now getting closer to being able to deliver a serious game about global warming.

I envision three major steps towards this goal:

• • Deliver a Web interface to CCEM, similar to En-ROADS.

  • Extend CCEM with GTES.

  • Build a Web-game using CLAIRE server.

2025 is the year for the first step, that is delivering CCEM as a Web simulation.
This product will be called G2WS : Geopolitical Global Warming Simulation

• It provides an easy interface, in the spirit of En-ROADS (a first prototype was build during 2024 summer)

• It relies on CCEM as a javascript function (already done, using C2J  compiler)

The next step is to move from a simple simulation to a serious game, where the computer plays the role of other players (using  local optimization).

This will be offered as a Web game (which requires a more complex setup than the Web simulator).

In parallel, I plan to apply GTES to study the properties of this game, especially the existence of Nash of extended-Nash equilibriums and the emergence of cooperation.

The current plan is then to write a book about global warming and complex system simulation.

2. CCEM : Keep Improving the World Model

As was pointed to my by Yves Bamberger, CCEM is more a World model than an Earth model.

During the past 3 years, I have made CCEM my top priority and it has made lots of progress, as shown on the Web site (cf. the publication section).

Here is the global roadmap for CCEM/GWDG:

The complete backlog and the expected features for the upcoming CCEM version may be found on the Web site, but here are some of the most significant milestones for the next two years: 

• Better characterize clean energy, with the introduction of biomass and Negawatts

• Improve the model of technological progress, to factor positive scale effects

• run different starting points (1980, 2000,2010) for the CCEM simulation to increase robustness

• produce 22nd century scenarios, including collapses.

• introduce inequality and political ways to mitigate inequality as CCEM factors

• refine the propagation delays in CCEM, show how to use CCEM to evaluate anticipation

• distinguish the active population for each zone and its evolution (think of China in 2100).

3. CLAIRE 4  Web Server

CLAIRE 4 is now mature ! it will continue to evolve as I gather more feedbacks from CLAIRE4 projects.
My experience is that it takes a couple of of year to graduate from beta (today) to stable release status.

Here are the key milestones that I would like to pass during the next 3 years:

• • CLAIRE server, that is a Go additon to CLAIRE 4 that makes CLAIRE a web server. Since this is the technical foundation for the serious game mentioned in section 1, it will be a high priority for the next two years. Fortunately, a prototype was built in 2023, so feasibility is no longer a concern

  • Learn to run CLAIRE server in a safe a scalable way on AWS

  • Keep improving the "CLAIRE to Javascript" compiler, which is the core technology for G2WS.

  • Develop a "CLAIRE to Python" compiler, so that CCEM is made available to a larger community of developers