At 1:30 PM PST today, December 19, 2013 we will have a recommendation from the Enbridge Northern Gateway Project Joint Review Panel as to whether the controversial pipeline, marine terminal and marine transportation project it has been reviewing for the past three and one half years should go ahead. Harper’s government will then have six months to respond to the Panel’s report.
In terms of what to expect in the weeks and months to come, let’s look at things first from the perspective of the Panel itself. Specifically, what are the odds the Panel will either approve or reject the proposal before it? Harper has basically pulled the rug out from under the Panel by rescinding its final say over the project. Ironically, this makes it more likely the Panel will recommend the project not proceed, thereby forcing Harper to overrule them if he wants the project to advance. A more likely scenario, though, would have the Panel recommend the project be approved, with conditions. Bear in mind that the Panel has already issued a draft set of 199 conditions for which comment from Intervenors was solicited.
From the perspective of the government, how is it likely to respond to a Panel report? Assuming for a moment that the Panel recommends rejection, how realistic is it Harper will overrule it? Given the fact that the government has already proclaimed the export of bitumen through BC to be in the national interest, one might think that overruling a Panel recommendation in favour of the project is a strong possibility. On the other hand, Harper has said he will respect the conclusions of “scientists” vis a vis the project. So, there is at least a fighting chance that if the Panel ( none of whom are really scientists- but why quibble? ) recommends rejection, then Harper might decide to respect their decision. Also, with this government everything is political, and so, with the prospect of losing many seats in BC at the time of the next federal election in 2015, Harper might think twice about plowing ahead regardless. He might also be wary of facing overwhelming opposition from BC First Nations groups as well as ENGOs, in what would surely shape up to be the battle of the century- in the courts, on the streets, in the water and on the land, should this project be rammed through willy nilly. On the other hand, this obviously angry man may just be girding himself for one big fight- possibly the biggest fight of his political life.
One tends to overlook the potential reaction of the proponent, Enbridge Northern Gateway, to the Panel’s report. It is rather commonly assumed that if the project is approved, then it will get built. Not so fast, buckwheat! First of all, the parent company, Enbridge, knows full well that it cannot successfully conduct its business without a social license. And this project is such damaged goods that the company might just choose to declare a moral victory and then simply walk away from it. The company may actually be hoping for a negative report from the Panel, which would let it off the hook from disgruntled backers, who reportedly ponied up at least $100 million for the EA phase alone. Another possibility, and a very strong one at that, would be for the conditions imposed on the project to be deemed so onerous as to make the entire venture uneconomical. This was in fact the hope of some of the Intervenors in the EA process, and the basic strategy they employed in their interventions before the Panel.
Lastly, there is the impact of the province of British Columbia on the project. In spite of all the bluster, the province’s role is actually minimal; Victoria is really little more than a bit player in this unfolding drama.
In the opinion of this writer, the most likely scenario is that the project gets recommended by the Panel and approved by the government, but ultimately rejected by the proponent itself. Bear in mind that the economic case for it is marginal at best ( as was the Mackenzie Valley Gas Pipeline project, which was also approved but never built ), to the point where the proponent, and/or its financial backers, may just be looking for a face-saving way out.
In short, a rather interesting, high stakes poker game, if one can call it that, is about to unfold, with billions of dollars, not to mention the potential fate of British Columbia’s terrestrial and marine environments, at stake. In the end, there will be winners and losers, and the fight is bound to be long and nasty, with the outcome of the next federal election possibly hanging in the balance. Recall that both the NDP and the Liberals are against Northern Gateway, and that Harper’s Conservatives are deeply unpopular nationally. British Columbia may just hold the key to the outcome in the 2015 vote, and Northern Gateway could be a decisive factor in determining whether Harper gets to lead the country for a fourth term.
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