International Students - Staying in the EU

As external consultant I contributed to the OECD's "Review of labour migration policy in Europe". In this regard I analysed "Internationally mobile students and their post-graduation migratory behaviour". This project provided a detailed analysis of determinants of student mobility and stay (or retention) rates in the EU.

Core research questions

The original project comprised the following four main research question:

• • What do we know of post-graduation migration patterns of internationally mobile students across the globe and various academic disciplines?

  • Who are the stayers and how to measure staying behaviour in Europe?

  • What are the determinants driving aggregate post-graduation migratory behaviour?

  • How smoothly do internationally mobile students integrate into European labour markets?

As part of the 2021 major project extension (Run, graduate, run), I investigate whether staying patterns respond to changes in the political landscapes in Europe. These are the main research questions:

• • Is there any association between the levels of support for right-wing parties and staying behaviour of international graduates?

  • How do internationally mobile graduates react to immigration policy changes affecting them or  other groups of migrants?

Findings in a nutshell

This research investigated the preferences and post-graduation mobility behaviour of internationally mobile students, focusing on how the EU could succeed in attracting and keeping highly educated talent from across the globe. Providing their skills to European labour markets, graduates from outside the EU have a potential to enrich the supply of high-skilled labour.

The exploratory part of this research revealed that measures of staying or returning behaviour of internationally mobile students in the literature vary drastically. This variation originates from a multitude of sources, such as the respective destination country, countries of origin, reference year, time horizon, calculation procedure, underlying data source and type of student (overview in the Stay rate database). 

In order to understand the post-graduation staying behaviour of internationally mobile students in the EU, this study examined a wide range of different calculation methods (based on permit, enrolment, graduation and EULFS data) in order to generate stay rates for over 170 countries of origin.

Empirical results indicate that for the EU as a whole, aggregate stay rates from stayers from all non-EU source countries lie within a range of 16.4% and 29.1%. More specifically:

• • Similarity between host and source countries’ language are associated with higher stay rates. A larger distance between these countries, reflecting higher monetary costs of migration and lower degrees of cultural proximity, is indicative of lower stay rates.

  • If an EU host country scores better regarding institutional quality and governance effectiveness, higher stay rates can be observed. This gives rise to the claim that stayers prefer a ‘reliable’ business or daily life environment.

  • In a similar manner, higher scores regarding technological readiness and innovation serve as predictors for higher stay rates.

  • Living circumstances in general have to be considered as relevant factors as well – more pronounced levels of political stability and absence of violence are associated with more likely staying decisions. But if (political) participation opportunities are more developed in the home country, return becomes more likely. 

Drawing upon EULFS data, several key findings regarding stayers' integration into EU labour markets were identified:

• • International stayers have an employment rate which is at least as high as for their domestic peers. Unemployment is also not more frequent amongst stayers. The subsample of stayers from other EU countries is more often self-employed.

  • Part-time employment is more widespread amongst international stayers, partially due to the fact that this group consists to a larger extent of married women. A positive selection of stayers explains also why they have a higher likelihood of having found permanent employment.

  • Whilst there are no significant differences regarding income, international stayers face a much higher probability of working in a job requiring only medium or low skills. This is mainly driven by stayers from non-EU countries and points to problematic skill mismatches.

  • Fields of study and preferred residential locations of international stayers show that they have a low inclination towards selecting themselves into labour market segments with alleged shortages.

This research also highlighted a catalogue of measures to boost the EU's attractiveness, and to increase stay rates. Proposed policy measures draw upon a smooth labour market integration of international graduates by setting further incentives to remove language barriers already during studies or providing support regarding country-specific labour market peculiarities. Actively supporting post-graduate studies seems to be another promising way to increase retention of international talents in a medium-run. At the same time, the EU and all its members are well advised not only to maintain, but to cultivate their strong points: political stability and participation possibilities, reliable institutions and governance structure, as well as an innovative and competitive environment – all these aspects exert a non-negligible influence on the decision to stay of highly-skilled, but also highly-mobile, individuals.

These are the main findings from the 2021 project extension:

• • Stay rates are significantly higher in destination countries displaying a more pronounced openness to vulnerable migrants, such as refugees. Past policies resulting in more leniency towards irregular migrants and refugees are appreciated in a similar manner as are policies targeted directly at the group of skilled migrants.

  • If the median voter in a country is on the right half of the political spectrum the observed overall stay rates are reduced by at least 1.5 percentage points. This is a lower bound estimate. In relative terms this would correspond, on average, to a loss of almost one fifth of international graduates staying in the country.

  • In election years, i.e. when political preferences become more salient and potentially heated political debates take place, this effect can amount to a drop of one fourth in the stayer cohort.

  • Potential stayers display a notable preference for a balanced political environment. Increasing support for either end of the political spectrum is associated with diminishing stay rates. Yet this effect is stronger in case of a dominance of the right. Once their supporters outnumber their counterparts 2:1 stay rates decrease by 3.8 percentage points, implying a collapse of 47% in terms of the overall number of stayers.

Related publications

Weisser, Reinhard A. (2021): Run, graduate, run: Internationally mobile students' reactions to changing political landscapes in Europe; GLO Discussion Paper, No. 872, Global Labor Organization (GLO), Essen (download).

Weisser, Reinhard A. (2021): The hidden price of political imbalances and immigration policies: Europe loses tens of thousands of international graduates every year; INFER Brief Series, No 8 | 2021 (download).

Weisser, Reinhard A. (2016): Internationally mobile students and their post-graduation migratory behaviour: An analysis of determinants of student mobility and retention rates in the EU; OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 186, OECD Publishing, Paris (download).

Weisser, Reinhard A. (2015): Internationally mobile students and their post-graduation migratory behaviour: Meta-study and methodological approach; Technical Report, October 2015.

Related material: Stay rate database