Refugee presence and inter-group cooperation: A global long-term analysis [Preprint]
The last three decades have seen notable political and societal changes. The end of the Cold War triggered an era of free movement for documented labour migrants. Since then, however, economic imbalances, violent conflicts, and climate change have also led to large-scale displacement events and the rise of major transnational refugee flows. In many host countries, "the-boat-is-full" narratives have emerged. This research investigates how cooperation patterns between domestic stakeholders and refugees have changed over the last 30 years. Using global news coverage from 1989 onward, the attitudes of major societal groups in more than 140 countries towards refugee groups are investigated. Despite widespread adversarial narratives, overall interaction patterns between domestic actors and refugees have become more cooperative during times of increasing refugee presence.
Conflict on land, casualties at sea: Geographic spillover effects of remote conflicts on migration hazards [Preprint]
Violent conflicts can have devastating effects on local communities and the wider society in affected countries. The implications of ensuing forced displacement will not stop at national borders, but spill over into neighbouring countries. This research shows that violent conflicts may have even further-reaching repercussions, such as increasing migration hazards on migration routes far away. Using localised information on migrant vessels in distress and missing migrants from 2000-2021, this research sheds light on how civil wars and other violent conflict types around the Mediterranean Sea projected their fatal consequences onto the often distant sea. By devising the concept of Conflict Pressure, this research shows that fleeing dangerous areas towards seemingly safe harbours may not always result in the hoped-for gain in safety. Furthermore, integrating Conflict Pressure into a spatio-temporal framework allows to develop a parsimonious migration hazard forecast model for the Mediterranean Sea.
Markets versus morals at sea: Opportunity costs and rescue by merchant ships (with S. Axbard and R.O. Adland) [Discussion paper]
This paper examines the interaction between market dynamics and the provision of humanitarian assistance, focusing on merchant-vessel responses to SOS incidents during the Mediterranean migration crisis. Drawing on 1.1 billion ship positions, we find that commercial vessels do respond; however, they are 90 percent less likely than equally distant NGO-operated vessels to reach those in distress within the critical first five hours. The opportunity cost of intervening is a key determinant of this muted response. Over the longer term, shipping lanes exposed to SOS incidents experience a 14 percent decline in commercial traffic, reshaping flows within the global trade network.
Area-of-Effect placebo tests: Evaluating the effect of imprecisely defined geographic interventions (find out more)
MESARAS 2013: Mobility, Expectations, Self-Assessment and Risk Attitude of Students (PhD research project, find out more)
Internationally mobile students and their post-graduation migratory behaviour (OECD consultancy project, find out more)
Asylum policies in Europe and the refugee crisis: new empirical evidence for better policy-making? This project, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, is dedicated to investigate the impact of asylum policies in European states on refugee flows and their subsequent experience in host countries (PI: Francesco Fasani).