Welcome to my personal homepage. I am an economist in the Monetary Analysis Directorate of the Bank of England. All views expressed on this site are my own. My research interests include macroeconomics, monetary policy, fiscal-monetary interactions, optimal learning, and applied econometrics. I am also a guest lecturer at the London School of Economics, teaching a third-year undergraduate course in monetary economics.
My CV can be found here.
An auction-based sovereign debt restructuring mechanism
Please see this paper for a description of a proposal for an auction-based debt restructuring mechanism. The process can be simulated via this online application (see footnote 25 of the aforementioned paper for login details). A first, initial version of the proposal originally appeared on VoxEU.
A short 6-minute video explaining the idea can be found on YouTube.
A simple Excel workbook containing an example of how the market clearing process works, can be found here.
1. Battle of the markups: conflict inflation and the aspirational channel of monetary policy transmission (with Rick van der Ploeg)
2. Revisiting the Monetary Transmission Mechanism through an Industry-Level Differential Approach (with Sangyup Choi and Seung Yong Yoo). R&R at the Journal of Monetary Economics
Dataset containing cross-country monetary policy shocks (annual and monthly)
3. Evaluating the impact of non-financial IMF programs using the Synthetic Control Method (with Monique Newiak).
Investor Sentiment, Sovereign Debt Mispricing, and Economic Outcomes (with Ramzy Al-Amine), Economic Journal, 133, 2023.
2. Sovereign Debt Sustainability and Central Bank Credibility (with Jeromin Zettelmeyer), Annual Review of Financial Economics, 14, 2022.
3. On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism (with Paul Beaudry), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 14, 2022.
4. What Do Monetary Contractions Do? Evidence From Large Tightenings, Review of Economic Dynamics, 38, 2020.
Replication material (including contraction dummies)
5. A note on optimal experimentation under risk aversion, Journal of Economic Theory, 179, 2019 (with Godfrey Keller and Vladimir Novak).
6. The benefits of forced experimentation: striking evidence from the London underground network, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132 (4), 2017 (with Shaun Larcom and Ferdinand Rauch).
Podcast discussion in "Cautionary Tales" by Tim Harford.
Podcast discussion in "Freakonomics" by Stephen Dubner.
1. Debt Sustainability (with Xavier Debrun, Jonathan Ostry, and Charles Wyplosz), in: Ali Abbas, Alex Pienkowski, and Kenneth Rogoff (eds.), Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners, Oxford University Press, 2019.