Welcome to my personal homepage. I am a Research Advisor in the Monetary Analysis Directorate of the Bank of England. All views expressed on this site are my own. My research interests include macroeconomics, monetary policy, fiscal-monetary interactions, optimal learning, and applied econometrics. I am also an Associate Editor at Economica.
My CV can be found here.
An auction-based sovereign debt restructuring mechanism
Please see this paper for a description of a proposal for an auction-based debt restructuring mechanism. The process can be simulated via this online application (Username: DemoUser, Password: DemoPassword). A first, initial version of the proposal originally appeared on VoxEU.
A short 6-minute video explaining the idea can be found on YouTube.
A simple Excel workbook containing an example of how the market clearing process works, can be found here.
Working papers
1. Monetary policy along the yield curve: why can central banks affect long-term real rates? (with Paul Beaudry and Paolo Cavallino)
2. Battle of the markups: conflict inflation and the aspirational channel of monetary policy transmission (with Rick van der Ploeg)
3. Forecast accuracy and efficiency at the Bank of England -- and how errors can be leveraged to do better (with Derrick Kanngiesser) -- link to associated dataset containing BoE forecast vintages and errors
4. Evaluating the impact of non-financial IMF programs using the Synthetic Control Method (with Monique Newiak)
Recent publications
1. Revisiting the Monetary Transmission Mechanism through an Industry-Level Differential Approach (with Sangyup Choi and Seung Yong Yoo), Journal of Monetary Economics, 145, 2024.
Dataset containing cross-country monetary policy shocks (annual and monthly)
2. About a rate of (general) interest: how monetary policy transmits (with Natalie Burr), Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 64, July 2024.
3. Investor Sentiment, Sovereign Debt Mispricing, and Economic Outcomes (with Ramzy Al-Amine), Economic Journal, 133, 2023.
4. Sovereign Debt Sustainability and Central Bank Credibility (with Jeromin Zettelmeyer), Annual Review of Financial Economics, 14, 2022.
5. On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism (with Paul Beaudry), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 14, 2022.
Selected media coverage: The Wall Street Journal, The Economist, AEA Research Highlight.
6. What Do Monetary Contractions Do? Evidence From Large Tightenings, Review of Economic Dynamics, 38, 2020.
Replication material (including contraction dummies)
Table describing narratives underlying identified contractions
Book chapters
1. Debt Sustainability (with Xavier Debrun, Jonathan Ostry, and Charles Wyplosz), in: Ali Abbas, Alex Pienkowski, and Kenneth Rogoff (eds.), Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners, Oxford University Press, 2019.