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Welcome to my personal homepage. I am an economist at the International Monetary Fund. All views expressed on this site are my own and do not necessarily reflect the position of the International Monetary Fund. My research interests include macroeconomics, monetary policy, fiscal-monetary interactions, optimal learning, political economy, and applied econometrics.

My CV can be found here.

An auction-based sovereign debt restructuring mechanism

    • Please see this paper for a description of a proposal for an auction-based debt restructuring mechanism. The process can be simulated via this online application (see footnote 25 of the aforementioned paper for login details). A first, initial version of the proposal originally appeared on VoxEU.

    • A short 6-minute video explaining the idea can be found on YouTube.

  • A simple Excel workbook containing an example of how the market clearing process works, can be found here.

Recent publications

1. Sovereign Debt Sustainability and Central Bank Credibility (with Jeromin Zettelmeyer), forthcoming in the Annual Review of Financial Economics.

- CEPR discussion paper version

2. On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism (with Paul Beaudry), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 14, 2022.

- Selected media coverage: The Wall Street Journal, The Economist, AEA Research Highlight.

3. What Do Monetary Contractions Do? Evidence From Large Tightenings, Review of Economic Dynamics, 38, 2020.

- Replication material (including contraction dummies)

- Table describing narratives underlying identified contractions

4. A note on optimal experimentation under risk aversion, Journal of Economic Theory, 179, 2019 (with Godfrey Keller and Vladimir Novak).

5. The benefits of forced experimentation: striking evidence from the London underground network, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132 (4), 2017 (with Shaun Larcom and Ferdinand Rauch).

- Replication material

- YouTube animation of paper (made by Econimate).

- Podcast discussion in "Cautionary Tales" by Tim Harford.

- Podcast discussion in "Freakonomics" by Stephen Dubner.

6. Dissecting Fiscal Multipliers under the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, European Economic Review, 95, 2017 (with Peder Beck-Friis).

Working papers

1. Investor Sentiment, Sovereign Debt Mispricing, and Economic Outcomes (with Ramzy Al-Amine), R&R at the Economic Journal.

- IMF Working Paper version.

2. Revisiting the Monetary Transmission Mechanism through an Industry-Level Differential Approach (with Sangyup Choi and Seung Yong Yoo).

3. Evaluating the impact of non-financial IMF programs using the Synthetic Control Method (with Monique Newiak).

Book chapters

1. Debt Sustainability (with Xavier Debrun, Jonathan Ostry, and Charles Wyplosz), in: Ali Abbas, Alex Pienkowski, and Kenneth Rogoff (eds.), Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners, Oxford University Press, 2019.