Past workshops

日時：2024年6月14日 (金) 15:00-16:30 （経済学研究科学術交流棟 第2セミナー室(１階）にてハイブリッドで開催）

Guest Speaker：Mirka Zvedelikova (Osaka University)

Title： Husband's Retirement and Housework Burden: Unpacking Gender Dynamics in Japanese Marriages 

Abstract: Japanese wives traditionally bear the homemaking burden while the husbands engage in formal employment. This study examines the reallocation of time spent on housework among Japanese married couples post husbands’ retirement, focusing on the difference in perception by the responding spouse. Utilizing household panel data, a dynamic staggered difference-in-difference design is employed to analyze up to five years surrounding retirement, comparing households with husbands from identical cohorts. Results show that the aggregate time dedicated to housework remains unchanged following husbands’ retirement and that the wives continue to be the primary provider of housework. Although retired husbands show a modest increase in chore participation, this result is driven primarily by husbands already participating pre-retirement and fails to compensate for the initial differences in reporting, revealing a continued conflict in the perception of the burden. The persistent imbalance in housework provision poses a potential risk to welfare for elderly households, if the wife’s ability to perform chores diminishes. Given the increasing shortage of caregivers, these results point at an important social issue. 

日時：2024年5月10日 (金) 15:00-16:30 （経済学研究科学術交流棟 第2セミナー室(１階）にてハイブリッドで開催）

Guest Speaker: 吉田雅裕 （早稲田大学）  

Title: Climate Change and Outdoor Labor Markets: the Rise of Dropouts of Adult Males 

Abstract: Male labor force participation in developed economies has ubiquitously declined since the 1970s. This paper shows that contemporaneous global warming fueled dropouts of prime-aged adult males by harming their traditional advantage of working outdoors. Exploiting climate change variation across U.S. commuting zones, constructed from granular weather station records during 1970-2019, I find that 10 more average hot days (above 75F) per year hurt labor force participation rate (LFPR) of prime-aged males by 0.3 percentage points. Overall, climate change accounted for 10-15% of the nationwide LFPR drop in the new century. I find that climate impact critically depends on regional prevalence of outdoor jobs, which I compute from O*NET Work Context Survey, and thus, relatively yield fewer impacts on females. The effect is higher on non-rainy and humid hot days; if regional demography is less-educated and middle-aged; if an adoption rate of residential air conditioner is higher. I also find that climate change hurt employment rate of outdoor workers, with limited transfer to indoor sector and increased unemployment especially, of the youth. Collectively, the finding suggests that climate change exacerbates socio-economic inequality. 

日時：2024年4月12日 (金) 15:00-16:30 （経済学研究科学術交流棟 第2セミナー室(１階）にてハイブリッドで開催）

Guest Speaker: 小泉秀人 (RIETI) 

Title: How Much of Merit is Due to Luck? Evidence on the Butterfly Effect of Luck 

Abstract: Progressive societies aspire to eliminate discrimination and promote equal opportunities and meritocracy. The crucial question remains: does the pursuit of equal opportunities and merit-based evaluation truly lead to a fair society? To test the presumed fairness of meritocracy, this paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of luck on merit in the absence of initial differences in individual characteristics. This study utilizes a distinctive experimental setting involving Japanese speedboat races. Participants are randomly assigned engines with different capacities in each tournament, ensuring probabilistic fairness across racers but introducing variability in the timing of luck. By identifying racers who are assigned “lucky” motors during their debut periods as the treatment group, we trace their performance trajectory, examining factors such as the number of first-place finishes and earnings. The findings indicate a growing performance gap over time, accompanied by increased opportunities and tendency for risk-taking behavior. Over four years, the initially modest advantage of the treatment group results in a remarkable 69% more cumulative first-place finishes and 48% more cumulative earnings for male racers. Additionally, male racers in the treatment group exhibit a 10% lower market exit rate compared to the control group. These results underscore the pivotal role of early-stage luck in shaping substantial differences in merit, challenging the presumed fairness of meritocracy. 

日時：2024年3月8日 (金) 9:30-16:50 （経済学研究科学術交流棟 第2セミナー室(１階））

Tokyo Labor Economics Workshop: One-Day Conference  （CIRJEとの共催 ）

日時：2024年1月19日 (金) 15:00-16:30 （経済学研究科学術交流棟 第１セミナー室(１階）にてハイブリッドで開催）

Guest Speaker: Suk Joon Son (University of Tokyo) 

Title: Distributional Impacts of Centralized School Choice

Co-author: Jaewon Lee

Abstract: Informational frictions in centralized school choice can significantly influence its distributional consequences. Recognition of such frictions is also necessary to accurately measure welfare. We build a model of school applications, allowing applicants to consider only a limited set of schools and to have mistaken beliefs about their admission chances. Quasi-experimental variation and rich information in students’ rank-ordered lists enable identification. Utilizing this model, we evaluate the impacts of centralized school choice in New York City on racial segregation and equity in welfare, decomposing the contributions of the frictions and the preferences of students and schools. We also quantify matching stability and deviations from truthful reporting. Our results show that while school choice improves welfare across races, limited consideration substantially compromises these gains, particularly for Black and Hispanic students. A counterfactual policy involving personalized school recommendations designed using our model is projected to recover 20–36% of the welfare losses.

日時：2023年12月15日 (金) 15:00-16:30 （経済学研究科学術交流棟 第１セミナー室(１階）にてハイブリッドで開催）

Guest Speaker: Motohiro Kumagai (Hitotsubashi)

Title: The Horse, Battles, and the State: Military Origins of Autocracy

Abstract: This research explores the military origins of states and autocracy, focusing on the horse. It empirically establishes that the earlier timing of the emergence of cavalry influences battles, state formation, and the development of autocratic institutions and attitudes. To get closer to causal relationships, the study exploits a multi-faceted approach, leveraging exogenous sources of variations in (i) the spread of metal bits, (ii) the suitability for horse survival, and (iii) the introduction of the animal in the Americas during the Columbian Exchange. Employing diverse datasets spanning several millennia, this research reveals the long-lasting impact of the horse on the evolution of civilizations and autocracy.

日時：2023年11月13日 (金) 15:00-16:30 （小島ホール 小島カンファレンスルーム (2階）にてハイブリッドで開催）

Guest Speaker: Masayuki Yagasaki (University of Tokyo and ESRI) 

Title: Anticipating Trade-offs: Individual Expectations on Career Development versus Family Formation

Co-author: Kiho Muroga

Abstract: How do individuals perceive the trade-off between career and family formation, and through what mechanisms do they believe the trade-off occurs? To answer this question, we investigate how Japanese university students anticipate future earning, labour supply, marriage, and fertility under hypothetical scenarios that vary with regard to educational investment and the timing of marriage. We find that women perceive a more severe trade-off between educational investment and family formation, with a large part of them believing that women face greater family formation disadvantages through educational investment delaying the timing of marriage. 

日時：2023年10月13日 (金) 15:00-16:30 （経済学研究科棟 第１共同研究室 1202室（12階）にてハイブリッドで開催）

Guest Speaker: Takeshi Aida (Hitotsubashi University) 

Title: Paddy Cultivation as an Origin of Cooperative Norms: Evidence from Natural and Lab-in-the-Field Experiments 

Co-author: Kei Kajisa and Yasuyuki Sawada 

Abstract: It has been argued that the paddy cultivation experience enhances cooperative norms through collective farm management. This study aims to test this paddy hypothesis using a unique natural experimental setting in rural Sri Lanka, where two types of irrigation (for paddy or for non-paddy) were randomly assigned to farmers in an irrigation scheme, and, thus, the cultivated crops were exogenously determined. Compared to the previous large-scale regional or nationwide comparisons, this setting enables us to test the hypothesis under a geographically and culturally homogenous setting. We constructed a two-round panel of lab-in-the-field experiments to measure the long-term changes in social preferences. Using these natural and lab-in-the-field experiments, we show that the paddy cultivation experience enhances cooperative norms, particularly among the known members. This result is consistent with our data showing the greater extent of interdependent work in the real world among paddy farmers. Our study supports the group of literatures which claims that social preference can endogenously change through real-world farming experiences.

日時：2023年7月28日 (金) 15:00-16:30 (学術交流棟 １F・第２セミナー室にてハイブリッドで開催）

Guest Speaker: Lester Lusher (University of Pittsburgh)

Title: Public Health Warnings and Heat Stroke in Japan 

Co-author: Tim Ruberg

Abstract: In 2020, Japan introduced a comprehensive heat-health warning system where daily alerts were issued by region when forecasted wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) exceeded a threshold (33 degrees). Utilizing plausibly exogenous day-region variation in the difference between actual and forecasted WBGT, we find that the alerts led to a large and precisely estimated increase in heat stroke hospitalization. Paired with Google Mobility Reports data, we discuss potential mechanisms, including increased reporting of heat stroke cases and behavioral responses (i.e. people spending more time at parks) when alerts were issued. Our results highlight the importance for clear messaging and communication of suggested behavioral responses in response to higher temperatures and climate change.

日時：2023年6月9日 (金) 15:00-16:30 (学術交流棟 １F・第２セミナー室にてハイブリッドで開催）

報告者：関麻衣 (立命館大学)

Guest Speaker: Mai Seki (Ritsumeikan University)

Title: The Effects of Flipped Classrooms in Higher Education: Identification Challenges and Implications for Classroom Implementation

Co-author: Yasukazu Ichino

Abstract: The flipped classroom literally "flips" the timing of the traditional teaching style, with students receiving a video lecture before class and working on exercises during class. We estimate the effects of flipped classroom on the learning outcomes of college students in an introductory economics course utilizing random assignment of students to multiple classes. In this presentation, we will discuss our findings based on a working paper with Yasukazu Ichino, “The Effects of in-Person and Online Flipped Classrooms During the COVID-19 Pandemic” using the 2021 data, following a brief discussion of a preliminary results using the 2022 data. The former data is collected in the context of a state of emergency, which led to a sudden switch of face-to-face classes to online classes during the semester. Based on the 2021 data analysis, we find suggestive evidence that the flipped classroom has a negative impact on students’ learning outcomes in the in-person classroom format, but a positive impact in the online classroom format. In contrast, the 2022 analysis find a positive impact on students’ learning outcomes. The major change in the flipped classrooms setting from 2021 to 2022 is that, in the 2022 experiment, student groups are randomly assigned for the in-class discussions. We believe that proper arrangement of group discussions is the key to successful implementation of flipped classrooms.

日時：2023年5月12日 (金) 15:00-16:30 (学術交流棟 １F・第２セミナー室にてハイブリッドで開催）

報告者：深井太洋 (筑波大学)

Guest Speaker: Taiyo Fukai (Tsukuba University)

Title: Access to Formal Childcare for Toddlers and Parental Employment and Earnings

Co-author: Ayako Kondo

Abstract: This study examines the effect of availability of accredited childcare centers, the most popular category of publicly-licensed childcare centers in Japan, on mothers’ employment and earnings. We focus on mothers with children less than two years old, most of whom are returning from parental leave to full-time work under excess demand for center-based childcare. We construct an instrument from the first-round assignment process of April enrollment and find that the enrollment to an accredited childcare center increases mothers’ employment rate by more than 20 percentage points. The effect of such enrollment on mothers’ annual salary income is 1.13 million yen for zero-year-old children and 0.61 million yen for one-year-old children.

日時：2023年4月14日 (金) 15:00-16:30 (東京大学小島カンファレンスホールにてハイブリッドで開催）

報告者：奥平寛子 (同志社大学)

Guest Speaker: Hiroko Okudaira (Doshisha University)

Title: Uncovering Organizational Strategies Behind Employee Downsizing: Evidence from Product Turnover in Manufacturing Plants

Co-authors: Miho Takizawa and Kenta Yamanouchi

Abstract: Workforce downsizing is an important management decision for firms to recover from business downturns. Using administrative data on the population of manufacturing plants and their products in Japan, we investigate the strategies adopted by firms that secure productivity gains after downsizing. By accounting for the staggered timings of layoff events, we found that managing product turnover is key to securing productivity gains. In particular, successful plants were less likely to introduce new products and replace existing products, and they reduced their new investment while maintaining performance levels after downsizing. Importantly, these effects were only observed in capital-intensive plants. We argue that a relatively high replacement cost per new product leads capital-intensive plants to focus on process innovation for their existing products, thereby improving their productivity.

日時：2023年3月24日 (金) 14:00-15:30 (Zoomによるオンライン開催）

報告者：Tanika Chakraborty (IIM Calcutta)

Guest Speaker: Tanika Chakraborty (IIM Calcutta)

Title: Monetary Incentives and Journal Publications: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

Co-authors: Debashish Bhattacherjee (IIM Calcutta)

Abstract: In a bid to improve research output, educational institutions across the world have tried incentivising faculty with financial rewards for journal publications. However, empirical evidence on the effectiveness of monetary incentives, for tasks that require cognitive and creative abilities, is either absent or scarce at best. Using a unique natural experiment setting, across several schools of management education in India, we investigate whether and the extent to which monetary incentives influence research output. While some institutions implemented very specific monetary reward programs around 2012, others did not. Our strategy exploits the idea that while all institutions experienced a long-term increasing trend in research publications, only those with a monetary incentive policy in place would have experienced a jump, if any, in publications around 2012. Specifically, we investigate whether publications increased in those journals which were covered by the incentive scheme. Most importantly, we explore the quality-quantity trade-off. If one higher quality publication fetches as much monetary reward as several lower-quality publications, do researchers choose the latter or the former? Our preliminary results indicate that the absolute number of publications in journals rewarded by the incentive scheme increased significantly in institutions that implemented the policy. Moreover, the increase is driven primarily by relatively lower ranked publications across all institutions. At the same time, though, we also document an increase in the proportion of high ranked to low ranked publications due to the incentive policy.

日時：2023年1月13日 (金) 13:00-14:30 (Zoomによるオンライン開催）

報告者：朝井友紀子（シカゴ大学) 

Guest Speaker: Yukiko Asai (Chicago) 

Co-authors: Dmitry Koustas

Title: Temporary Work Contracts and Female Labor Market Outcomes Abstract: How does initial placement in a temporary work contract affect workers’ subsequent labor market outcomes? We study a unique set of natural experiments: In the mid- 1990s, the Japanese airline industry implemented a new hiring policy using temporary employment contracts. The policy was later reversed in the mid-2010s. Examining the universe of employment records from one of Japan’s major airlines as well as government surveys to compare outcomes for cohorts of flight attendants hired just before to those hired just after these changes in industry policy, we find that workers starting on temporary contracts were less likely to remain with the firm over time and are less likely to have children within 10 years after starting the job. These findings do not appear to be the result of selection on observables.

日時：2022年11月11日 (金) 15:30-17:00 (Zoomによるオンライン開催）

報告者：足立大輔（オーフス大学)

Guest Speaker: Daisuke Adachi (Aarhus University）

Title:  Robots on sale: the effect of investment promotion on robot adoption and employment 

Co-authors: Daiji Kawaguchi and Yukiko Saito

Abstract: We study the role of an investment promotion policy in adopting industrial robots and firm performances, notably employment. Combining the policy variation in the Tax Credit for Promoting Productivity-Enhancing Equipment Investment (TC-PPEI) in Japan and a newly collected Japanese firm-level longitudinal data on robot adoption, we find that the firms eligible for the TC-PPEI increased the adoption of robots. Our event-study analysis reveals that when firms adopt robots, they do not decrease the total number of workers but significantly increase it after 1-3 years of adoption event as well as sales. Our results suggest that adopting robots can be employment creating instead of destroying at the firm level.

日時：2022年10月14日 (金) 13:00-17:10 (横浜国立大学経済学部と共催）

ワイル先生を囲む少子高齢化の経済学ワークショップ

日時：2022年7月15日 (金) 15:00-16:30 (Zoomによるオンライン開催）

報告者：富蓉（早稲田大学) 

Guest Speaker: Rong Fu (Waseda University）

Title:  In Utero Exposure to Radiation Fear and Birth Outcomes: Evidence from the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident

Co-author: Haruko Noguchi

Abstract: We study the effects of exposure to radiation fear in utero on health at birth and five years later, using universal birth records linked to Censuses in Japan. We are the first to assess maternal stress due to a risk factor that is intangible and uncertain—radiation exposure. We leverage the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident in 2011 and create a quasi-experimental setting by focusing on children whose expected birthdates were within a 280-day window to the accident. We find radiation fear in utero causes a 30-gram decrease in birth weight, with a 19% and 38% increase in the risks of low birth weight and preterm delivery, respectively. The effects are more pronounced if expectant mothers are less educated or have toddlers, and if expectant fathers work in agriculture, indicating that the ability to collect information is important for stress alleviation and that food contamination is the main source of radiation fear. The findings have immediate implications for offspring health loss owing to maternal stress from intangible risk factors, such as infectious viruses.

日時：2022年5月13日 (金) 14:00-15:30 (Zoomによるオンライン開催）

報告者：山﨑潤一（神戸大学 ） 

Guest Speaker: Junichi Yamasaki（Kobe University） 

Title:  From Samurai to Skyscrapers: How Transaction Costs Shape Tokyo 

Co-authors: Kentaro Nakajima and Kensuke Teshima

Abstract: Whether transaction costs to assemble or split land can persistently hinder urban land use remains unknown. Constructing a 100 m*100 m-cell-level dataset of central Tokyo from the 19th-century pre-modern era to the 21st-century skyscraper era, we study how initial lot fragmentation has affected urban development. We exploit a plausibly exogenous supply shock of large lots in 1868, the release of local lords’ estates (daimyo yashiki) scattered throughout central Tokyo. Using ordinary least squares and a regression discontinuity design, we find that cells previously used as local lords’ estates have larger lots today, implying that lot size persists through transaction costs. Such cells today see more tall buildings, higher land prices, and higher labor productivity of firms. We also find these effects only in the core area, suggesting higher transaction costs in this area. Finally, the effect of lot size on land prices became positive only after the rise of skyscrapers. This implies that optimal lot size became larger and assembly friction became more salient in the skyscraper age. Overall, transaction costs to change lot size persistently hinder economic activities; in particular, this dominates the potentially large benefits of assembly for skyscraper development in growing urban cores.

日時：2022年4月8日 (金) 14:00-15:30 (Zoomによるオンライン開催）

報告者：東雄大（岡山大学 ） 

Guest Speaker: Yudai Higashi（Okayama University） 

Title:  Urbanization effects on job search decision 

Abstract: This study examines the effects of urban agglomeration on a non-working individual’s decision to search for a job. The theoretical analysis of this study implies that such agglomeration effects are heterogeneous across individuals’ socio-economic statuses and skills. The empirical analyses, using Japanese microdata, show that, for unmarried women, urban agglomeration increases the probability of searching, while it has no significant effect for married women without children; furthermore, it decreases the probability of searching for married women with children. Such heterogeneous agglomeration effects are not confirmed for men and highly educated women, suggesting that the life events, such as marriage and childbirth, can change less educated women’s job search decisions with regard to urban agglomeration.

日時：2022年3月11日 (金) 14:00-15:30, 15:40-17:10 (Zoomによるオンライン開催）

報告者1：森悠子（津田塾大学 ）「一橋大学経済研究所共同利用・共同研究拠点事業共催」

Guest Speaker: Yuko Mori（Tsuda University）

Title: Who can become politicians in a gender quota system?

Co-authors: D Rajasekhar, Jun Goto, Takashi Kurosaki, and R Manjula

Abstract: Gender quotas are expected to promote women’s representation in government. However, one concern associated with gender quotas is the lack of meritocratic selection. This problem may be more serious in local councils where the number of potential candidates is more limited. If there are few women who are willing to become politicians or have some leadership experience, it would be at the expense of efficiency. We explore the random assignment of gender quotas across villages in India to examine the meritocratic selection problem in a gender quota system. We conducted a field survey in villages with populations of approximately 400 each and collected information about cognitive and non-cognitive related skills and the socioeconomic background among voters and candidates in 2020 local elections. We find that while women candidates in a gender quota system have less cognitive and non-cognitive skills compared to men candidates, women candidates with higher cognitive skills are more positively selected among voters compared to this consideration for men candidates. On the other hand, households with less leadership experience can participate in elections as candidates in a gender quota system. This implies that gender quotas can lead to broader representation. In addition, in a gender quota system, voters are more familiar with and value candidates’ skills. These results suggest that the quota system has the potential to promote broad political participation and encourage meritocratic selections.

報告者2：北村周平（大阪大学）

Guest Speaker: Shuhei Kitamura（Osaka University ）

Title: Cities, Conflict, and Corridors（Nils-Petter Lagerlöf氏との共著）

Abstract: In this paper we propose that state structure in European history is linked to how geography affects the effective distance between state capitals. First we document that military battles tend to occur close to the shortest-distance corridors between the capitals of the belligerent powers, *except* where that corridor is intercepted by certain types of geography, specifically seas, mountains, and marshes. Geography thus seems to have influenced the effective military distance between the belligerents’ capitals. Then we explore similar corridors between a multitude of European cities, documenting two patterns: (1) state capitals tend to be closer to each other when the geography between them is more separating, as measured by similar types of geography found to affect battle locations; (2) controlling for distance, the likelihood that any two cities are located in the same state decreases with the same types of geography between them. We present a model consistent with these patterns.

日時：2022年1月14日 (金) 14:00-15:30, 15:40-17:10 (Zoomによるオンライン開催）

報告者1：奥山陽子（Uppsala University ）

Guest Speaker: Yoko Okuyama（Uppsala University）

Title: Electoral institutions, women's representation, and policy outcomes (2021, with Ayumi Sudo)

Abstract: Do electoral institutions affect the degree to which female legislators address women’s interests in legislative processes? While the growing literature has examined whether increased women’s representation causally affects policy outcomes, whether electoral institutions mediate the effect is less known. To fill the gap, this study tests whether proportional representation (PR) encourages female representatives to address women-specific interests more than a single-member district (SMD) does. To elicit the causal impact of electoral institutions, we leverage the unique “best loser” provision of the mixed electoral system in the Japanese House of Representatives elections, where a marginal candidate may win an SMD seat or PR seat by chance. To fully account for the complex structure of the mixed electoral system, we apply the simulation-based regression discontinuity design. Across different legislative activities, we consistently find a significant effect of holding a PR seat: female PR representatives more frequently affiliate with women-related committees, submit question memorandums on women’s issues, and endorse petitions regarding women’s interests than their male counterparts, but significantly less so when they stand as SMD representatives. The institutional effect likely arises because a SMD representative has higher incentives to address issues both male and female voters care about. Such a vote-seeking strategy is not necessarily compatible with representing women-specific interests. Meanwhile, a PR representative earns their party’s reputation from female voters by addressing women-specific interests. Overall, our results suggest that electoral institutions do affect the relationship between women’s nominal representation and their policy consequences. More broadly, our findings bring forward the research agenda in political economics to better understand the political institutions and policy choices and, in particular, underscore the importance of institutional environments in leveraging diverse voices in policymaking. 

報告者2：松田一茂（神戸大学）

Guest Speaker: Kazushige Matsuda（Kobe University ）

Title: University Research and the Market for Higher Education (joint work with Titan Alon and Damien Capelle)

Abstract: American universities are an important source of domestic R&D, accounting for over 13% of aggregate R&D expenditure and more than half of spending on basic research. We develop a model which endogenizes university research expenditure and show how it depends on the market structure of the higher education sector. Spending on research improves the quality of education a university can offer by exposing its students to cutting edge ideas and techniques. Consequently, the competition between universities for tuition and talented students is an important determinant of R&D expenditure. The calibrated model successfully replicates key distributional characteristics of the U.S. higher education sector, including institution-level heterogeneity in revenue and research expenditure. We use the model to assess the impact on university R&D of implementing the Biden administration’s proposed expansion of federal need-based student financial-aid. The model predicts a substantial 9.43% rise in university research spending in response to the policy. These gains materialize in the long-run, while simulations of the economy’s transition path show that R&D declines in the short-run. 

日時：2021年12月10日 (金) 14:00-15:30, 15:40-17:10 (Zoomによるオンライン開催）

報告者1：田中聡史（University of Queensland） 

Guest Speaker: Satoshi Tanaka（University of Queensland）

Title: Rising Wage Inequality between Firms--A Consequence of SME Protection? (with Ryo Kambayashi and Shintaro Yamaguchi)

報告者2：宮本弘曉（東京都立大学）

Guest Speaker: Hiroaki Miyamoto（Tokyo Metropolitan University ）

Title: Robots and Unemployment

Abstract: This paper studies the impact of the robotics revolution on the labor market outcomes through the lens of capital-augmenting technological progress. We develop a search-matching model with labor market segmentation and multi-factor production to find the condition under which the new technology harms the labor market. For technology optimism, the elasticity of substitution between routine labor input and robots must be less than 2.5. The robotics revolution hits the labor market for routine task intensive jobs harder under a more generous unemployment policy. Automation of abstract tasks may cause a disaster for those who are reallocated to routine-task intensive occupations.

日時：2021年11月12日 (金) 14:00-15:30, 15:40-17:10 (Zoomによるオンライン開催）

報告者1：臼井恵美子（一橋大学）

Guest Speaker: Emiko Usui (Hitotsubashi University）

Title: 女性医師のキャリア選択と医療現場の課題

Abstract:  以下の2つの論文を併せた報告を行います。 

"医師専門医資格取得の男女差と医療現場の課題"

"Career Development of Women in Male- and Female-dominated Specialties: Evidence from Japan's New Residency "

報告者2：森知晴（立命館大学）

Guest Speaker: Tomoharu Mori (Ritsumeikan University）

Title:  The role of coarse information on the success probability in college application behavior (with Katsuya Takii)

Abstract:  This paper examines that when students are informed of their grades and chances ofbeing accepted in a college application, how they interpret this information and how it influences their actual application behavior.  There is a significant feature of the informa-tion returned by the prep school to students:  it contains both a coarse information on the success probability (discrete score label) and the precise information in the sameplace.  Using a regression discontinuity design,  we show that before and after the scorelabel threshold, the probability of applying to a college to which one was planning to apply significantly changes.  Sub-sample analyses show that the differences before and after the threshold are larger or the students who are likely to have more incentive to change their application decision.  We also construct a decision model that explicitly include behavioral inattention and recover the attention parameters.

日時：2021年10月8日 (金) 14:00-15:30, 15:40-17:10 (Zoomによるオンライン開催）

報告者1：Meradee Tangvatcharapong(一橋大学）

Guest Speaker:  Meradee Tangvatcharapong(Hitotsubashi University）

Title:  The Impact of Vaccine Misinformation: Evidence from the US

Abstract:  The increasing amount of misinformation, especially during the Covid-19 pandemic, has generated significant debate about the proper role of government and media platforms in combating it. However, little is known about whether and to what extent misinformation can actually change behavior. This paper addresses this question by examining how parents responded to the unexpected surge in media coverage in 2007 of the verifiably false claim that the MMR vaccine caused autism. Specifically, I use a difference-in-differences approach to compare the vaccination rates of children whose parents were most and least likely to be affected by the news over time. Results indicate that susceptible parents were 3.3 percentage points less likely to vaccinate their children with an MMR shot by the recommended age of 15 months and 4.1 percentage points less likely to do so by 29 months.

報告者2：Stacey Chen(東京大学）

Guest Speaker:  Stacey Chen(The University of Tokyo）

Title: Women’s University Attainment and Labor Supply: Evidence from Thailand’s University Expansion

(Authors: Jay C. Charoenporn and Stacey H. Chen ) 

Abstract:  Thailand underwent a massive university expansion from 2004 to 2005, increasing the number of universities by 77 percent. Varied intensity in university expansion across provinces and cohorts suggests that each opening per 10,000 local youths significantly doubles women’s university completion rate. Conversely, its impact on men is much smaller and statistically marginal. This educational advantage for women complying with the expansion did not benefit their work, formality, or earnings over their male counterparts. For the average woman, the monetary payoffs of a university degree are near zero. In this study, we explore various mechanisms, including gender roles and skill mismatch.

日時：2021年７月９日 (金) 14:00-15:30, 15:40-17:10 (Zoomによるオンライン開催）

報告者1：George Orlov （Cornell University）

Guest Speaker:  George Orlov （Cornell University）

Title:  Learning During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Instructional Approaches, Student Stress, and Student Performance* 

Abstract:  The COVID-19 pandemic has drastically affected the performance of colleges and universities, changing how we teach and how our students learn.

 We use unique data from seven intermediate economics courses taught at four PhD-granting R1 institutions in the US to examine the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on student learning. Because the same assessments of course knowledge mastery were administered across semesters, we can cleanly infer the impact of the unanticipated switch to remote teaching in Spring 2020. As a result of the pandemic, assessment scores declined by 0.2 standard deviations on average, and we find substantial heterogeneity in learning outcomes across courses. Course instructors were surveyed about their pedagogy practices, and our analysis suggests that prior online teaching experience and teaching methods that encouraged active engagement, such as the use of small group activities and projects, played an important role in mitigating this negative effect. In contrast, we find that student characteristics, including gender, race, and first-generation status, had no significant association with the decline in student performance in the pandemic semester.

 To further our understanding of the challenges students faced in the past academic year and their impact on students, we use administrative data, ACT/SAT scores, end-of-semester standard assessments of learning, and end-of-semester surveys about student stress during the pandemic. These data cover the Spring 2020, Fall 2020, and Spring 2021 semesters. Using ordered probit models, we examine which groups of students were differentially exposed to specific stressors, and then estimate the association between these stressors and student learning. 

* The first part of the talk is based on the article “Learning during the COVID-19 pandemic: It is not who you teach, but how you teach”by Orlov, McKee, Berry, Boyle, DiCiccio, Ransom, Rees-Jones, and Stoye (Economics Letters, Vol. 212, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109812). The second part of the talk is research in progress. 

報告者2：Luke Chu （Victoria University of Wellington） 

Guest Speaker:  Luke Chu （Victoria University of Wellington） 

Title:  Do academically struggling students benefit from continued student loan access? Evidence from University and Beyond (with Harold E. Cuffe )

Abstract:  We estimate the effects of access to student loans on university students’ educational attainment and labor market returns in New Zealand. We exploit the introduction of a policy mandating a minimum pass rate of 50% for student loan renewals using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and linked administrative records. For students around the threshold, retaining access to student loans increases their likelihood of re-enrollment and bachelor’s degree completion rate. The effects are observed primarily among female students due to a substantial gender difference in compliance with the pass rate criterion. We find that retaining student loans leads to large labor market returns for academically struggling female students. Retaining loan access leads to a modest increase in student loan debt for these students, and additional student loan debt from further borrowing declines quickly due to faster repayment. 

日時：2021年6月11日 (金) 14:00-15:30, 15:40-17:10 (Zoomによるオンライン開催）

報告者1：風神佐知子（慶應義塾大学）

Guest Speaker:  Sachiko Kazekami (Keio University)

Title:  Regional Difference of the Epidemic Shock on Local Labor Market and its Spread  

Abstract:  This study demonstrates the regional differences in the epidemic shock on the local labor market and evaluates the spread from the non-tradable sectors damaged by the COVID-19 pandemic to the other sectors. We use the number of job posting data in Japan to demonstrate this difference.

This study controls mobility, the monthly average of infected people, and the industrial structure in the pre-pandemic era that determines the local consumption and labor demand. Under such controlled conditions, the diversity of industrial structure measured by the number of establishments positively impacted the number of job postings from April to December in 2020 after the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. By contrast, the financial rigidity of the local government negatively impacts the number of job postings. This study examines whether firms consider the human capital resources of the local labor market. However, unlike our expectations, the rate of admissions into universities from high school decreases the number of job postings. The unemployment rate does not affect the job offers.

This study examines the Tokyo and Osaka commuting zones between April and December 2020, to investigate where jobs are offered. We find that the surrounding areas of the central cities in the commuting zones recover the number of job posting faster than the central cities. The dramatic increase in the prefectures outside of Tokyo and Osaka commuting zones was not observed from April to December 2020. The pandemic has affected the non-tradable sectors, while the economic crisis affected the tradable sectors such as manufacturing. This study demonstrates that the spread effect from the shock in the non-tradable sectors maybe smaller than that in the tradable sectors. 

報告者2：古川知志雄（横浜国立大学）

Guest Speaker:  Chishio Furukawa (Yokohama National University)

Title:  Rational Inattention and Statistical Randomization

Abstract:  Although widely regarded as the requirement for credible statistical inference, randomization has no value to Bayesian scientists whose priors can be used to correct the selection bias of non-randomized methods. This paper extends this standard model with a choice of how much to think about the selection bias while incurring attention costs. The model shows that the value of randomization lies in its ease of interpretation, rather than in its unbiasedness per se. That is, complete randomization becomes valuable to attention-constrained Bayesian scientists because it eliminates the need to scrutinize selection bias, for which extensive discussions are needed for other "nearly random'' designs.

日時：2021年5月14日 (金) 14:00-15:30, 15:40-17:10 (Zoomによるオンライン開催）

報告者1：室賀貴穂（九州大学）

Guest Speaker :Kiho Muroga (Kyushu University)

Title: Broadband Internet and Labor Market Consequences 

Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of internet penetration on labor force participation, hours worked, employment status and wage. We found that internet penetration increases the probability of labor force participation. Our estimates also show that internet penetration is associated with a substantial increase in wage, especially for males. In addition, non-college-graduated groups are highly affected by internet penetration for both men and women. Those results suggest that internet penetration helps encourage more labor force participation because of an increase in wages.

報告者2：原ひろみ（日本女子大学）

Guest Speaker :Hiromi Hara (Japan Women's University)

Title: The Effect of Public-Sponsored Job Training in Japan

Abstract: This study investigates the short-term effects of public-sponsored job training (PJT) for the unemployed on their working status and income using a large-scale Japanese government survey and the propensity score matching technique. We find a significantly positive effect on the subsequent probability of working for both men and women; however, the point estimate for women is larger than for men. We also find a gendered difference in the effects on income and probability of being employed as a regular worker; that is, significantly positive effects for women but no significant effects for men, suggesting that PJT might be more effective for women. We confirm that the results are robust to a range of empirical specifications. 

日時：2021年4月9日 (金) 14:00-15:30, 15:40-17:10 (Zoomによるオンライン開催）

報告者1：鳥谷部貴大（東京大学）

Guest Speaker :Takahiro Toriyabe (The University of Tokyo)

Title: Introduction of parental leave policies and maternal employment in long-run

Abstract: Parental leave is one of the most popular policies to promote career continuation of mothers. Drawing on the micro data of Japanese population Census, we evaluated the long-run impact of taking parental leave on maternal employment. To this end, we used the parental leave reforms in 1992 and 1995 as natural experiments, which introduces job-protected leave and cash benefits during the leave, respectively. We found that the job protection and cash benefits both increased full-time employment while decreasing part-time employment in long-run. Rescaling these policy impacts by the take-up rate of the parental leave, we found that the magnitude of the effect of taking the leave was more than 30 percentage points. Since the increase in the full-time employment was offset by the decrease in the part-time employment, the employment rate was unaffected. Therefore, the parental leave policy strengthened labor market attachment of mothers, allowing those who would otherwise engage in part-time jobs after childbirth to continue full-time jobs.

報告者2：兼田充（Money Forward Lab）

Guest Speaker :Michiru Kaneda（Money Forward Lab）

Title: Who Spent COVID-19 Stimulus Payment? Evidence from a Personal Finance Software in Japan

(Authors: Michiru Kaneda, So Kubota, and Satoshi Tanaka)

Abstract: We study the household consumption responses to the Japan's unconditional cash transfer program reacting to the COVID-19 crisis. Due to frequent delays in local governments' administrative procedures, the timing of the payment to households unexpectedly varied. With this natural experiment, we analyze households' consumption responses to the cash transfer using high-frequency data from a personal finance management software that links detailed information on expenditure, income, and wealth. We construct three consumption measures: one captures the baseline marginal propensity to consume (MPC), and the other two are for the lower and the upper bound of the MPC. All exhibit immediate and non-negligible positive responses in household expenditure. We also explore heterogeneity in MPCs by households' income, wealth, and population characteristics, as well as consumption categories. Our results provide implications for counterfactual targeted cash transfer programs, conditioning on labor income and liquidity constraint.

日時：2021年3月12日 (金) 14:00-15:30, 15:40-17:10 (Zoomによるオンライン開催）

報告者1：須合智広（日本銀行）

Guest Speaker :Tomohiro Sugo (Bank of Japan)

Title: Decreasing Wage Returns to Human Capital: Analysis of Wage and Job Experience Using Micro Data of Workers

(Authors: Taro Kimura, Yoshiyuki Kurachi and Tomohiro Sugo)

Abstract: Recent literature reports a decrease in wage returns to skills since the 2000s. This paper contributes additional evidence that this trend is also occurring with skills that accumulate through job experience. We use micro data of Japanese workers to analyze this phenomenon by taking advantage of unique Japanese employment practices that emphasize skills acquired through tenure and on the job training as important human capital. We find that (1) wage returns to job experience have decreased from the 2000s to the 2010s and (2) decomposing the human capital into general and firm specific, the returns to both have decreased. We also examine whether the recent trend of firms extending retirement age contributes to the decrease in returns, and we find that its impact has been marginal.

報告者2：Ruo Shangguan（早稲田大学）

Guest Speaker :Ruo Shangguan (Waseda University)

Title: Enhancing Team Productivity through Shorter Working Hours: Evidence from the Great Recession  

 (Authors:  Hideo Owan,Ruo Shangguan and Jed DeVaro)

Abstract: When demand for products and services drops during recessions, employers decrease labor inputs by cutting either or both workers and hours. If pre-recession hours were excessive, cutting hours might increase labor productivity, given an inverted-U-shaped hours-productivity profile; less worker exhaustion implies higher effort-per-hour. A concurring effect occurs in team settings, where labor reallocation causes hours to be concentrated among the top performers after total hours are cut. The adjustment process is examined using single-firm data on Japanese construction design projects. A theoretical model is proposed to analyze within-team labor allocation. Its parameters are calibrated with data to quantify its predictions. Regression results derived from the actual data are consistent with the model's predictions. Specifically, in response to the hours decrease resulting from the 2008-2009 global financial crisis: (1) total productivity improves by more than the increase in individual productivity, the labor share becomes more concentrated, and team size decreases; (2) the productivity improvement is greater for larger teams and less productive teams; (3) larger teams exhibit lower average productivity because weaker workers join teams when more hours are needed than the stars can handle. Within-team labor allocation, and its cyclical responses, have not been addressed in the literature. The analysis provides deeper insight into the nature of organizations’ cyclical adjustments of labor inputs and is important given the prevalence of team production.

日時：2021年2月12日 (金) 14:00-15:30, 15:40-17:10(Zoomによるオンライン開催）

報告者1：中澤伸彦（一橋大学）

Guest Speaker :  Nobuhiko Nakazawa (Hitotsubashi University)

Title:  Does Working with a Future Executive Make Junior Employees More Likely to Be Promoted? (Authors: Natsuki Arai and Nobuhiko Nakazawa)

Abstract:  We estimate long-term peer effects in the workplace by investigating whether working with a future executive in the early stages of a junior employee's career will make them more likely to be promoted in the future. Using the data for comprehensive career history at the Japanese central administration, from 1946 to 2019, we find that long-term peer effects are substantial and persistent: Junior employees who work with a future executive in the same division during the first few years of their employment are promoted significantly faster, on average, than employees who do not work with a future executive. They are also more likely to be promoted to the executive level in the future. Additional empirical analysis suggests that improved network connections between senior and junior employees are crucial for the promotion of junior employees in the future.

報告者2：石丸翔也（一橋大学）

Guest Speaker :  Shoya Ishimaru (Hitotsubashi University)

Title:  Empirical Decomposition of the IV–OLS Gap with Heterogeneous and Nonlinear Effects

Abstract:  This study proposes an econometric framework to interpret and empirically decompose the difference between IV and OLS estimates given by the linear regression equation when the true causal effects of the treatment are nonlinear in treatment levels and heterogeneous across covariates. I show that the IV–OLS coefficient gap consists of three estimable components: the difference in weights on the covariates, the difference in weights on the treatment levels, and the difference in identified marginal effects associated with endogeneity bias. Applications of this framework to return-to-schooling estimates demonstrate the empirical relevance of this distinction in properly interpreting the IV–OLS coefficient gap.

日時：2021年1月8日 (金) 14:00-15:30, 15:40-17:10 (Zoomによるオンライン開催）

報告者1：小野塚祐紀（小樽商科大学)

Guest Speaker :  Yuki Onozuka (Otaru University of Commerce)

Title: 大学入試方法による学生の違い－出身高校ランクによる異質性－

Abstract:   本論文では、大学生の個票データを用い、高校生時点での特性、大学内外での態度・活動、大学でのパフォーマンスという 3 つの観点から、学業面を中心とした 様々な 面において、筆記試験入試入学者と推薦・ AO 入試入学者の間に違いが 見られるかを分析する。大学入試難易度により推薦・ AO 入試が果たしている役割が異なる可能性から、この記述分析では出身高校ランクによる異質性に着目する。分析の結果は、学生がなぜ推薦・ AO入試を利用しているかが出身高校ランクによって異なる可能性を示唆している。そして、高位校出身の推薦・ AO 入試入学者は、入学後の勉学へ の自主性や社会活動について望ましい特性を持ち、大学でのスキルの成長も大きいと評価している。このことから、難関大学は推薦・ AO 入試によって、筆記試験で測れない面で望ましい特性を持つ者を獲得できている可能性がある。しかしながら、どのランクの高校出身であっても、授業へのまじめさ、大学への満足度は推薦・ AO 入試入学者のほうが同ランク校出身の筆記試験入試入学者よりも高い傾向がみられ、また大学でのパフォーマンスが劣っているという証拠はみられない。推薦・ AO 入試に対する近年の社会的な低評価は、推薦・ AO 入試を導入している 大学の割合が低偏差値の大学で高いことが主要因であると思われる。

報告者2： 近藤絢子（東京大学）

Guest Speaker : Ayako Kondo (The University of Tokyo)

Title: Households' Responses to Childcare Fees: Childcare Usage and Parental Labor Supply （Authors: Taiyo Fukai and Ayako Kondo) 

Abstract: We examine the response of households with preschool children to the fee of accredited childcare centers.  Exploiting the fact that the fee is determined by a step function of taxable income, we identify the effects of the increased fee on the use of childcare centers and parental employment by the regression discontinuity design.  After confirming that the substantial jump in the actual fee exists, we show no discernible jump in the use of childcare centers or the fraction of mothers with positive pretax salary income.  

日時：2020年12月11日 (金) 14:00-15:30, 15:40-17:10 (Zoomによるオンライン開催）

報告者1：江上弘幸（政策研究大学院大学）

Guest Speaker :  Hiroyuki Egami (GRIPS)

Title: Effective Boost to Fertility: Evidence from Spillover Effects of Operation of Nuclear Power Plants in Japan (Author: Hiroyuki Egami, Jorge Luis Garcia and Tong Wang )

Abstract:   We provide evidence of a boost to fertility caused by the spillover effect of nuclear power plants' operation as such power plants create jobs in the surrounding area. We use household-level data from the Japanese population census (1980-2010) and link each household to granular location information. To quantify the spillover effects on the local demands, we exploit plausibly exogenous geographical variations in distance to nuclear power plants from each household. It is revealed that the operation of a nuclear power plant leads to a 10% increase in fertility in the surrounding areas—which is an underpopulated area. We also find that marriage and employment increase in areas close to a nuclear power plant. The estimates of instrumented difference-in-difference method suggest that an additional employment leads to a higher probability of having children born. On top of that, this work sets out to investigate the effect of large subsidies provided to local governments after the constructions of nuclear power plants. We utilize observations of households located close to the borders of the municipality to identify the causal impact of local government spending on fertility decisions. The results suggest that having a larger local government’s budget and subsequent provision of better-quality public services contribute to higher fertility.  [ paper]

報告者2： 伊藤寛武  (慶応義塾大学)

Guest Speaker :  Hirotake Ito (Keio University)

Title: Month-of-Birth Effects on Skills and Skill Formation (Author:  Hirotake Ito, Shintaro Yamaguchi and Makiko Nakamuro)

Abstract: We estimate month-of-birth effects on cognitive and noncognitive skills, as well as factors relevant to skill formation. Our estimates indicate that younger students in a given grade cohort have lower cognitive and noncognitive skills. To shed light on the underlying mechanisms, we also examine children's time use and interpersonal relationships. We find evidence of compensatory investment in cognitive skills by younger children, however, they are also more likely to have poor-quality relationships with their classmates and teachers, which may harm the long-term development of noncognitive skills. Our findings on skill formation have implications for efficiency and equity. ［paper］

日時：2020年11月13日 (金) 14:00-15:30, 15:40-17:10 (Zoomによるオンライン開催）

報告者1：深井太洋（内閣府 経済社会総合研究所）

Guest Speaker : Taiyo Fukai (ESRI,Cabinet Office)

Title: The impact of COVID-19 on the labor market: The picture of the first half period of 2020 in Japan

報告者2：菊地信義（一橋大学） 

Guest Speaker : Nobuyoshi Kikuchi (Hitotsubashi University)

Title:  The Effects of Gender-Specific Local Labor Demand on Birth Outcomes (Author:Nobuyoshi Kikuchi and Mika Akesaka)

Abstract: This study examines the effects of local labor market conditions during early pregnancy on birth outcomes. We find that improvements in female employment opportunities increase the probability of low birth weight attributable to shortened gestation. They also reduce maternal labor supply during the preschool years. By contrast, we find that improvements in male employment opportunities increase birth weights and gestational age at birth.

2020年7月10日 (金) 14:00-15:30, 15:40-17:10（Zoomによるオンライン開催）

報告者1：明日山陽子（早稲田大学）

Guest Speaker : Yoko Asuyama (Waseda University)

Title: なぜ日本には「面白い仕事」が少ないのか？

Abstract: 「面白い」仕事は、労働者の仕事満足度やパフォーマンスを向上させ、離職を抑制する。しかし、他の先進国と比べ日本には、労働者が「面白い」と思う仕事が少ない。本研究では、その要因について、また、そもそも研究が不足する「仕事の面白さ」の規定要因について、International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) と東大社研・若年／壮年パネル調査（JLPS）のデータを用いて分析する。要因分解の結果、「自律性」の高い仕事が少ないことが、「面白い」仕事が日本に少ない最大の要因となった。しかし、日本では「仕事の面白さ」に対する「自律性」の説明力が低いため、日本で面白い仕事を増やすには、興味のある仕事に就けるよう「マッチング」機能を高める他、職場の「人間関係」を改善し、「有能感」が感じられる仕事を増やし、仕事の「意義」を高めることが同時に重要となる。

報告者2：湯川志保（帝京大学）

Guest Speaker : Shiho Yukawa (Teikyo University)

Title:  性別役割意識の固着化,子どもの性別は親の政策支持と性別役割意識にどのような影響を与えるか

Abstract:諸外国では女性の社会的地位の確立が進んでいる。しかし日本では、依然として性別役割意識が根強く、その変化はゆっくりとしたものである。このような現象を本研究では、「性別役割意識の固着化」とよぶ。本研究は、このような性別役割意識の固着化を外生変数である子どもの性別を用いて説明する。子どもの性別は、政治的な側面と家計内の側面の両面から影響を与える。子どもの性別と政策や政党支持に関する近年の論文では、女児の誕生が女性の権利を拡大するような政策の実施や政党への支持に正の影響を与えることが示されている。他方、その背後に存在する男児が与える影響をふまえた議論は行われていない。実際、少なくとも息子が一人いる家計が多数派であり、政策や政党の決定に支配的な影響をもつことは疑いない。本研究では、東京大学社会科学研究所のパネル調査を用いて、息子が少なくとも一人いる家計という多数派が、少数派である娘のみの家計よりも政策の選好に大きな影響を与えることを検証した。その結果、少なくとも息子が一人いる家計の支持政策が支配的となり、政治を通じて性別役割意識をもつ家計が一定割合形成されることが示唆される。さらに、政治を通じて形成された性別役割意識を持つ家計を親とする次世代が、親の家庭内での行動と子どもの性別から影響を受け、世代を経ても性別役割意識をもつ家計がほぼ同じ割合形成されることが明らかになった。以上の結果から、性別役割意識の固着化の要因として、外生変数である子どもの性別が大きな役割を持つことが示された。

2020年6月12日 (金) 14:00-15:30, 15:40-17:10（Zoomによるオンライン開催）

報告者1：川田恵介 (東京大学) 

Guest Speaker :Keisuke Kawata (The University of Tokyo)

Title: The Japanese Labor Market in the COVID Crisis: A Preliminary Description 

Abstract: This paper provides early descriptive facts of the Japanese labor market during the COVID-19 periods. I use the Labor Force Survey (労働力調査 in Japanese) and the Employment Referral Statistics (職業安定業務統計) until April, 2020. Those datasets provide information on labor status, working hour, job seeking and posting. The descriptive statistics show the Japanese labor market has clearly different trends with previous years, especially in April, 2020. Additionally, the time trend in the COVID Crisis is also different with the finance crisis period. Finally, we employ a decomposition analysis with ins and outs from employment, which provides insights on the labor market dynamics.

報告者2：大竹文雄（大阪大学）

Guest Speaker :Fumio Ohtake (Osaka University)

Title:  出生時体重・貧困・相対年齢と子どものアウトカム (大竹文雄（大阪大学）・佐野晋平（神戸大学））

Abstract:本研究では尼崎市の行政データ（学力成績、出生時体重、経済状況）を用い、出生時体重・貧困・相対年齢と認知能力および非認知能力について子どものアウトカムの関係を定量的に確認する。出生時から現在までの貧困状況、相対年齢効果をコントロールしても出生体重が小学校、中学校における認知能力に影響を与えることを明らかにした。世帯固定効果分析、双生児固定効果分析でも結果の頑健性を確認した。

2020年5月8日 (金) 14:00 ～17:00（Zoomによるオンライン開催）

報告者1：長谷部拓也 (上智大学）

Guest Speaker :Takuya Hasebe (Sophia University)

Title: The effect of violence on health: The experience of East Timorese children  （Author:Gabriel Fuentes-Cordoba, Takuya Hasebe, and Mingchao Sun）

Abstract: East Timor went through the surge of violence on the path to its independence gained in 2002. The violence left the newly born country scarred and stunted its economic development. Violence also adversely affects child development. This study estimates the effect of prenatal and postnatal exposures to violence on child health status by exploiting temporal and geographical variations in violence. We combine the individual-level data from Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 2003 with the data on timing and location of violence from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Our results indicate heterogeneous prenatal impacts of violence exposures between boys and girls. We find that the exposure to violence during the first trimester of pregnancy decreases height for age z-scores by about 0.5 standard deviations and increases the probability of stunting by about 15 percentage points among boys, whereas no significant effects are found among girls. We also find no impact of postnatal exposure to violence among both boys and girls.

報告者2：児玉直美   (日本大学)

Guest Speaker :Naomi Kodama (Nihon University)

Title:  Labor Market Concentration on Wage, Employment, and Exit of Plants: Empirical Evidence with Minimum Wage Hike（Author:Izumi, Atsuko, Naomi Kodama, and Hyeog Ug Kwon) 

Abstract:This study investigates the effects of labor market competition on wage stagnation using data from Japan’s Census of Manufacture during 2001–2014. We find: (1) wage is suppressed in concentrated labor markets; (2) the effects of labor market concentration on wages are larger in fluid labor markets; (3) a hike in the minimum wage decreases employment; however, the reduction is smaller in concentrated markets than in competitive markets; and (4) firm exit rates are higher with a minimum wage hike; however, exit is less frequent in concentrated markets. Thus, wages are potentially below the competitive level in concentrated labor markets.

2020年4月10日 (金) 14:00 ~ 15:30 （Zoomによるオンライン開催）

報告者：角谷和彦（RIETI）

Guest Speaker :Kazuhiko Sumiya (RIETI)

Title: Income Taxes, Pre-tax Hourly Wages, and the Anatomy of Behavioral Responses: Evidence from a Danish Tax Reform 

Abstract: This paper provides quasi-experimental evidence on the effect of income taxes on pre-tax hourly wages by exploiting administrative data and a tax reform in Denmark. The reform introduced joint taxation to some tax bracket, creating large changes in the tax system facing married couples. By using variation in spousal income as a source of identification, we present non-parametric graphical evidence based on a difference-in-differences design among married males and find negative effects of taxes on wages, which is a sharp contrast to the canonical result on tax incidence. Furthermore, the distortion accumulates over time: among a low-income subsample, a six-percentage-point increase in marginal tax rates leads to a one- (three-) percentage-point decrease in wage growth one (seven, respectively) year(s) after the reform. Finally, we find that these dynamic wage responses occur through human capital accumulation, job changes, and bargaining, and are at least as large as labor supply responses.

2020年2月7日 (金) 14:00 ~ 17:00 経済学研究科学術交流棟 小島ホール 1階 第2セミナー室

報告者1： 永吉希久子（東北大学）

Guest Speaker : Kikuko Nagayoshi(Tohoku University)

Title: 日本における移民の階層的地位はいかに規定されるか 

Abstract: 移民の社会経済的地位達成を促す要因については，諸外国で検証が進められており，受け入れ国で蓄積した人的資本の重要性が繰り返し指摘されてきた． しかしこの仮説は，自由な労働市場での地位達成を前提としており，日本の労働市場の構造と移民の編入様式を考慮すれば，妥当しない可能性がある．そこで，本報告では独自に実施した全国調査データを用い，日本における移民の地位達成のメカニズムを検証する．分析の結果，雇用の安定性には日本で獲得した人的資本のみが，高い職業的地位の獲得には国外で獲得した人的資本のみが効果を持っていた．この結果は移民の労働市場が「雇用のポートフォリオ」に適合する形で三つに分かれている可能性を示唆するものである．

報告者2：酒井  正  （法政大学）

Guest Speaker : Tadashi Sakai(Hosei University)

Title: Do women go to university when it is established in a region where they live? Case of massive reforms of two-year colleges in Japan    (with Hiroko Araki, Takuya Hasebe, and Koyo Miyoshi) 

Abstract: In Japan, the number of two-year colleges, most of which are women’s colleges, has dropped by over 40% since the mid-1990s. Most of the abolished colleges have been reformed into four-year colleges; therefore, the number of four-year colleges has increased. Although in existing literature establishment of a college in a region is frequently used as an IV for expansion of higher education, a simple human capital theory does not predict a priori link between an increase in supply of higher education and an increase in enrollments. In this study, we investigated the impact of this massive change in supply of higher education on women’s decision of going to college. Our preliminary results of the analysis based on Japanese Panel Survey of Consumers indicate that the reforms of local two-year colleges into four-year colleges led to a decrease in the probability of women’s enrollments in two-year colleges but did not cause a significant increase in the probability of women’s enrollments in four-year colleges. This implies that some of female high-school students gave up receiving higher education in association with the reforms.

2020年1月10日 (金) 14:00 ~ 17:00 経済学研究科学術交流棟 小島ホール 1階 第2セミナー室

報告者1： 佐藤香織  （国士舘大学）

Guest Speaker : Kaori Sato (Kokushikan University)

Title: Mental Health Effects of Long Work Hours, Night and Weekend Work,and Short Rest Periods

Abstract: Although the prior literature has examined the relationship between work schedule characteristics and worker mental health, establishing the causal effect of work schedule characteristics is challenging because of endogeneity issues. This paper investigates how various work schedule characteristics affect workers’ mental health using employee surveys and actual working hours recorded over seventeen months in a Japanese manufacturing company. Our major findings are as follows: long working hours cause the mental health of white-collar workers to deteriorate even after controlling for individual fixed effects. Furthermore, working on weekends is associated with mental ill health—the negative effect of an hour increase in weekend work is one and a half to two times larger than that of weekday overtime work for white-collar workers. On the other hand, short rest periods are not associated with mental health for them. Our results indicate that taking a relatively long rest period on weekends is more important for keeping white-collar workers healthy than ensuring a sufficient daily rest period. Regarding blue-collar workers, our analysis reveals that working after midnight is associated with mental ill health, whereas short rest periods are not associated with their mental health. This suggests that the strain of night work is a more important determinant of mental health for blue-collar workers. The differences in the relationship between work schedule characteristics and workers’ mental health for white-collar and blue-collar workers can be explained in terms of different work styles, different expectations, and different degrees of selection.

報告者2：丸山士行  (University Technology Sydney)

Guest Speaker : Shiko Maruyama (University Technology Sydney)

Title: Why Waste Your Vote? Informal Voting in Compulsory Elections in Australia (Shiko Maruyama and Eamon McGinn)

Abstract: Voter turnout in mature democracies tends to range from around 50-70%.  Low, for something as critical as electing policymakers, but much higher than basic economic theory would predict. Even in Australia, where voting is compulsory, there are still around 5-6% of voters who submit an informal vote, which does not count towards the total. We make use of a natural experiment, based on exogenous changes in electorate boundaries, to identify what factors influence the number of wasted votes. In advance from the existing literature, we test a range of potential contributing factors together, in a single model, and with causal interpretation. We find that factors that feature in the traditional theory on voter decisions, competitiveness and number of other voters, do not affect the rate of informal voting.  Instead, we find that more candidates on the ballot results in higher levels of informal voting. This effect is present regardless of the level of education, which indicates that it is likely to be associated with a decision by the voter to abstain rather than an error.  We conclude that making the way voters can express their preferences as simple as possible would be beneficial for reducing wasted votes.

2019年12月6日 (金) 14:00 ~ 17:00 経済学研究科学術交流棟 小島ホール 2階 小島コンファレンスルーム  

報告者1： 山内慎子 （政策研究大学院大学)

Guest Speaker : Chikako Yamauchi (GRIPS)

Title: Who become migrant children and how do they fare after migration? Evidence from multiple provinces in China

Abstract: China's rapid economic growth has been supported by cheap labor from rural countryside to urban cities. However, due to the household registration system that limits access for rural children to urban public services such as health and education, there has been a great concern about the human capital formation of children who move to cities with parents. The available studies report that migrant children exhibit less favorable health and education outcomes compared to urban-born children and also to children left behind in rural areas. However, they are based on cross-sectional data and focus only on a few provinces. We provide a more comprehensive evidence on the selection patterns of migrant children and their outcomes using the panel data encompassing the majority of origin and destination provinces.

報告者2：恩田正行   (早稲田大学)

Guest Speaker : Masayuki Onda (Waseda University)

Title: EL Reclassification and Math Achievement: Evidence from Minnesota (Masayuki Onda and Edward Seyler)

Abstract: School districts in Minnesota have experienced an influx of English learners (EL) students over five decades. This study evaluates whether EL students made smooth transitions to being English proficient. Exploiting the reclassification policy in Minnesota, we use a regression discontinuity design to recover counterfactuals—how much would EL students, who were not reclassified due to the reclassification policy, have improved academic achievement had they been reclassified? We find that 7th-grade EL students improved in math owing to the reclassification policy. Our results indicate that the improvement in performance is driven by disadvantaged Asian EL students around the Twin Cities. Finally, on a basis of the recovered counterfactuals, we infer that the State Education Agency in Minnesota could have saved over a million dollars granted under Title III and the Every Student Succeeds Act.

2019年11月1日（金）14:00 ~ 17:00 東京大学 経済学研究科 学術交流棟 小島ホール １階 第2セミナー室

報告者1：井深陽子（慶応義塾大学） 

Guest Speaker : Yoko Ibuka  (Keio University)

Title: 日本における所得階層別の栄養摂取と栄養素価格指数の長期的推計（森口千晶・阿部修人・井深陽子・稲倉典子）

Abstract: 本論文では、1981−2015年の『家計調査』を用いて所得階層別の栄養摂取状況と栄養素価格指数の長期的推計を行う。その革新性は、新たな統計データを用いて日本における栄養状態の社会経済的格差（「栄養格差」）を計測し、その長期的動向を初めて明らかにする点にある。また、栄養格差の決定要因として、エネルギーおよび栄養素１単位当たりの購入価格の動向を示す「栄養素価格指数」も推計する。推計結果によると、日本では高所得世帯ほど、①炭水化物からのエネルギー摂取率が低く、②タンパク質からのエネルギー摂取率が高く、③炭水化物に占める食物繊維の比率が高く、④カリウムに対するナトリウムの摂取比率が低いという点で食生活の質が高いが、同時に、⑤脂質からのエネルギー摂取率が高く、⑥脂質に占める飽和脂肪酸の比率が高いという点では、低所得世帯よりも食生活の質が低い。また、このような所得階層間の栄養格差は1981年から1995年まで縮小し、その後はほぼ一定で推移している。価格指数の推計によると、高所得世帯ほど栄養素１単位当たりの購入価格が高いが、どの所得階層においても三大栄養素の実質価格は顕著に低下している。栄養素価格の長期的趨勢に大きな所得階層間の差はないが、脂質については低所得世帯ほど価格の低下幅が大きい。

報告者2：菅 史彦     (九州大学）

Guest Speaker : Fumihiko Suga  (Kyushu University)

Title:  Impact of Real Asset Price Bubble on Household Resource Allocation and Utility over the  Life cycle (with Masahiro Hori and Takeshi Niizeki)

Abstract: Japan experienced an asset price bubble from the late 1980s to the early 1990s. This dramatic change in real asset prices had a great impact on housing decisions, asset accumulation, and the lifetime utility of households in Japan. This study aims to estimate the lifetime impact of real asset price bubbles on Japanese households. We construct a theoretical model explaining the dynamic housing decisions of households under collateral and borrowing constraints. Then, we estimate a model by using a unique dataset on household consumption and assets, precisely and subjectively estimating their housing wealth. By using the estimated model, we conduct a counterfactual simulation to quantify the effect of real asset price bubbles. From the simulation result, we nd that the bubble caused a 2.5% loss in lifetime utility. This is equivalent to a 6 million yen (about $ 55,000) increase in financial asset holdings at age 25.

2019年10月11日（金）第22回労働経済学コンファレンス

2019年10月4日（金）14:00 ~ 17:00 東京大学 経済学研究科 学術交流棟 小島ホール １階 第2セミナー室 

報告者1：安藤道人（立教大学）

Guest Speaker 1: Michihito Ando（Rikkyo University）

Title:  Does Universal Long-term Care Insurance Boost Female Labor Force Participation? Macro-level Evidence

Abstract: Exploiting the introduction of nationwide long-term care insurance (LTCI) in Japan and utilizing a synthetic control method, we examine how LTCI introduction has altered the trends of public expenditures on in-kind benefits for the elderly, public health expenditure, and female labor force participation. Estimation results using the panel data of OECD countries (1980s-2010s) suggest that LTCI introduction substantially increased in-kind benefits for the elderly, but we do not find any positive effect on female labor force participation for any age cohort. We also provide extended placebo tests based on permuted treatment assignment, resampled donor pools, and several test statistics to verify the above conclusions.  

報告者2：今井晋（北海道大学）

Guest Speaker 2: Susumu Imai（Hokkaido University)

Title: The empirical analysis of returns to birthweight using triplets（with Eskil Heinesen and Shiko Maruyama) 

Abstract: Under nonlinearity of the birthweight equation, the conventional twin fixed effects estimator results in bias in the estimated returns to birthweight. To obtain an unbiased return to birth weight estimation under nonlinearity, we propose an estimator that uses the data on triplets.  The preliminary results indicate that conventional twin-fixed effects estimator and the one that adjusts for nonlinearity could underreport the high returns to birthweight at lower birth weight.  

2019年7月5日（金）14:00 ~ 17:00 東京大学 経済学研究科 学術交流棟 小島ホール １階 第2セミナー室 

報告者1：森口千晶（一橋大学）

Guest Speaker 1:  Chiaki Moriguchi（Hitotsubashi University）

Title: Meritocracy and Its Discontents: Centralizing School Admissions in Imperial Japan (joint with Mari Tanaka and Yusuke Narita)

Abstract: In this study, we examine the short- and long-run impacts of decentralized versus centralized school admissions in higher education, taking advantage of the world’s first known transition to nationally-centralized admissions (and its subsequent reversals) in Japan in the early 20th century. The centralization was implemented to make the school seat allocation more meritocratic, but it came at the cost of threatening equal regional access to schools.   In the short term, in line with theoretical predictions, we find that the centralization led a greater number of students to apply to the most selective school and make more inter-regional applications. As a result, it caused high-achieving applicants from urban areas to crowd out rural applicants from their local schools. We also find that these impacts were persistent: Four decades later, compared to the decentralized system, the centralized admissions increased the number of high-income earners and elite professionals who were born in urban areas relative to those born in rural areas.

報告者2：山﨑潤一（神戸大学）

Guest Speaker 2: Junichi Yamasaki（Kobe University)

Title:  Political Statement Cycle (with Jun Goto and Tomoko Matsumoto)

Abstract: While re-election motives are essential to control politicians, they may result in words without actions to win elections. Using minutes of assembly meetings, we find that politicians’ statements follow election cycles; during the election years, politicians temporarily change their statements (e.g. stated amount of money) in the budget-making process and their stated topics become less consistent with the realized budget. The effects are larger for those who win a narrower election. These changes are associated with a higher probability of winning in the next election. The results imply that politicians lure voters with attractive statements without changing their actual policies.

2019年6月7日（金）14:00 ~ 17:00 東京大学 経済学研究科 学術交流棟 小島ホール １階 第2セミナー室 

報告者1：森 啓明（専修大学）

Guest Speaker 1:  Hiroaki Mori（Senshu University）

 Title: Effects of Universal Early Childhood Education on Adolescent Behavioral Outcomes

 Abstract: We estimate the effects of universal early childhood education on adolescent behavioral outcomes. Exploiting staggered expansions of kindergarten across provinces in Japan, we identify the causal effects by the difference-in-differences approach. We find that the kindergarten reform reduced juvenile crime and teenage pregnancy. We also find that the kindergarten reform did not lead to a higher high school graduation rate or college enrollment rate, which implies that the reductions in crime are unlikely to be brought about by the incapacitation effect of education. Our results suggest that universal early childhood education generates positive externalities.

 報告者2：福元 健太郎 (学習院大学）

Guest Speaker 2: Kentaro Fukumoto（Gakushuin University)

 Title: 「地方選挙のタイミングを用いた自然実験」Natural Experiments Exploiting Timing of Local Elections

※Treated Politicians, Treated Voters: A Natural Experiment of Political Budget Cycleに関連する以下の論文をまとめた内容です。

 ・ Fukumoto, Kentaro, Yusaku  and Shoichiro Tanaka. "Treated Politicians, Treated Voters: A Natural Experiment of Political Budget Cycle”

・福元健太郎「自然実験を用いた選挙研究」 『オペレーションズ・リサーチ』Vol.62 No.10、671-676頁

 ・福元健太郎・植木太「市町村選挙が統一地方選挙から逸脱した時期と理由（１）～（３・完）」『月刊選挙』2015年9月号、8-15頁、10月号、9-14頁、11月号、17-24頁

 ・Fukumoto, Kentaro, and Yusaku Horiuchi. 2011. "Making Outsiders' Votes Count: Detecting Electoral Fraud through a Natural Experiment" American Political Science Review 105 (3): 586-603.

  ・ Fukumoto, Kentaro, and Yusaku Horiuchi. 2016. "Identifying the Effect of Mobilization on Voter Turnout through a Natural Experiment." Electoral Studies 44: 192-202.

2019年5月10日 (金) 14:00 ~ 17:00  東京大学 国際学術総合研究棟 12階 1213室（セミナールームA)

報告者1：牧岡亮（RIETI）

Guest Speaker 1:  Ryo Makioka (RIETI)

Title: The Impact of Anti-Sweatshop Activism on Employment

Abstract: While literature on the anti-sweatshop campaigns has empirically rejected the negative impact on employment, this paper shows that anti-sweatshop activisms for multinational companies in Indonesia had a negative impact on employment. My result suggests that the result inliterature comes from disregarding the differences in some dimensions of firm characteristicsbetween treatment and control groups.

報告者2：両角淳良（ノッティンガム大学）

Guest Speaker 2: Atusyoshi Morozumi  (University of Nottingham)

Title: 児童生徒支援加配と問題行動：家庭経済環境の役割

Abstract: 本研究では、公立中学校への教員加配が生徒の問題行動の減少・抑制に対して与える効果を分析する。特に、この効果が生徒の家庭経済環境により異なりうる点に着目する。ある政令指定都市の公立中学校の学校別パネルデータを用いて、不登校生徒数、暴力行為発生件数、いじめの認知件数のそれぞれを被説明変数とする付加価値モデルの推定を行う。分析の結果、以下の３点が明らかとなった。第一に、児童生徒支援のための教員加配は一般的に不登校の生徒数を減らすが、この効果は就学援助を受けている生徒の割合が多い（つまり経済的に恵まれていない家庭の生徒が多い）学校において特に強く観察された。第二に、暴力行為発生件数は学校における就学援助受給生徒割合と正の相関を持つが、教員加配との関係は検出されなかった。第三に、いじめの認知件数と教員加配や家庭の経済環境との間には統計的に有意な関係は検出されなかった。これらの結果より、教員加配を通じて問題行動に対処しようとする際には、対象となる問題行動を明確にしたうえで各学校における生徒の家庭経済状況の影響を考慮しつつその対策に当たることが重要であることがわかった。

2019年4月5日 (金) 14:00 ~ 17:00 東京大学 経済学研究科 学術交流棟 小島ホール １階 第2セミナー室 

 報告者1：田中万理（一橋大学）

Guest Speaker 1: Mari Tanaka (Hitotsubashi University)

Title: Management Practices Meet Labor Market Outcomes

Abstract: There has been a longstanding interest in explaining labor market outcomes by firm management practices. However, direct empirical evidence of the link between them remains limited. We combine a large scale management survey of Japanese establishments covering two periods with the corresponding employee data on wages and working hours. We obtain two main findings. First, workers become more likely to work more than moderate hours of overtime in establishments that introduce more structured bonuses and promotion practices.However, workers become less likely to work excessively long overtime hours in establishments that adopt structured monitoring and targeting practices. Second, there is a reduction in the hourly wage gap by tenure, especially among long-tenured male and short-tenured female workers, in those establishments more inclined to quickly dismiss or reassign underperforming workers. Overall, we find that the adoption of structured management practices is associated with the narrowing of disparities in working hours and wages within establishments.

報告者2：川田恵介（東京大学）

Guest Speaker 2: Keisuke Kawata (The University of Tokyo)

Title: Information effect and preference for migration policy

Abstract: This paper proposes a new approach to estimate the causal effects of information treatments on policy preferences. Our approach is based on a survey experiment with conjoint-survey and treatment-choice designs, which allows us to discover various heterogeneous effects according to (1) policy attributes and (2) information preference. As an application, the paper reports the estimation results applying migration policy in Japan. Main findings are that Japanese policy preference is substantially different with their policy preference. 

2019年3月1日 (金) 14:00 ~ 17:00 東京大学 経済学研究科 学術交流棟 小島ホール １階第一セミナー室

報告者1：中村 亮介(福岡大学)

Guest Speaker 1: Ryosuke Nakamura (Fukuoka University)

Title: 日本における教育のアカウンタビリティは学力を向上させるか？

Abstract: 本稿では日本における教育のアカウンタビリティ（説明責任）が小中学生の学力にどのような影響を与えているか分析を行った。本稿では教育のアカウンタビリティとして全国学力・学習状況調査（全国学力テスト）の結果の取り扱い方に注目し、その取り扱い方の違いと学力の関係を全国学力テストの都道府県パネルデータおよび市区町村への独自アンケート調査の結果から明らかにした。現在までの分析結果から、都道府県パネルデータを使った分析では、各学校がテスト結果を保護者に説明すると答えた割合が高ほど小学校の国語の正答率が高まるという結果を得た。また、市区町村への独自アンケートの分析結果からも市区町村自らが公開する情報がより詳細になるほど、当該市区町村の学力が全国平均に比べて高くなるという結果が得られた。

報告者2：原ひろみ (日本女子大)

Guest Speaker 2: Hiromi Hara (Japan Women's University)

Title:  Curriculum and Gender Norms: The Effect of Co-Education of Home Economics

Abstract: This study examines the causal effect of educational policy on people' s attitudes toward traditional gender roles through the study of a 1989 national educational reform in Japan in which home economics became a co-educational subject, having previously been taken only by girls. Using a regression discontinuity design and microdata from a Japanese time-use survey, we examined whether co-educational classes in home economics have increased husbands' participation in domestic production. We found a sharp increase in both the amount and the share of the typical husband's household production at the cutoff point (the cohort born in the 1977 academic year), indicating that husbands who had studied home economics for six years in junior and senior high school later contributed more to household production than those who did not. This implies that by providing both men and women with a more equitable view of gender role divisions, co-education can lead to increased male participation in activities previously seen seen as gendered. The study also validates the role of education in reshaping social norms.

2019年2月1日 (金) 14:00 ~ 17:00

報告者1：山田大地（東京大学）

Title: Negative Selection Migration and Education Investment: Roles of Remittances and Future Migration Prospects

報告者2：山岸敦（東京大学）

Title: Minimum Wage and Housing Rents: Theory and Evidence 

2019年1月11日 (金) 14:00 ~ 17:00

報告者1：矢ヶ崎将之（東京大学）

Guest Speaker 1: Masayuki Yagasaki (Tokyo)

Title: Pride, Shame and Social Comparisons

報告者2：石田賢示（東京大学）

Guest Speaker 2: Kenji ISHIDA (Tokyo)

Title: 社会的孤立と無業に関する相互依存モデルの検証――学歴間の差異に着目して 

2018年12月7日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00

報告者1：深井太洋（東京大学）

Guest Speaker 1: Taiyo Fukai (Tokyo)

Title: How elastic is capacity choice of welfare facilities? Evidence from notches in child care subsidy scheme

報告者2：篠原舟吾（国際大学）

Guest Speaker 2: Shugo Shinohara (International University of Japan)

Title: Trust in government under local fiscal crisis: A quasi-experimental study on the bad performance-low trust link 

2018年11月2日（金）Waldman workshop

2018年10月5日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1：黒田雄太（東北大学）

Guest Speaker 1: Yuta Kuroda (Tohoku)

Title: Does disclosure of school quality information increase the disparity in academic achievement? The effect through the housing market

報告者2：近藤恵介（RIETI）

Guest Speaker 2: Keisuke Kondo (RIETI)

Title: Dynamic benefits of working in large cities: Evidence from Japanese matched employer-employee data 

2018年9月29日（土）第21回労働経済学コンファレンス

2018年7月6日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1：森田穂高 氏（一橋大学）

Guest Speaker 1: Hodaka Morita (Hitotsubashi University)

Title: Firm-Specificity of Asset, Managerial Capability, and Labor Market Competition (with Cheng-Tao Tang)

報告者2：中島賢太郎 氏（一橋大学）

Guest Speaker 2: Kentaro Nakajima (Hitotsubashi University)

Title: Impact of workplace communication networks on productivity: A new approach using wearable sensors

2018年6月1日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1：三好向洋 氏（愛知学院大学）

Guest Speaker 1: Koyo Miyoshi (Aichi Gakuin University)

Title: The Decline of the Japanese Labor Share

報告者2：田中隆一 氏（東京大学）

Guest Speaker 2: Ryuichi Tanaka (The University of Tokyo)

Title: Do Teachers Matter for Academic Achievement of Students? Evidence from Administration Panel Data

2018年5月11日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1：及川雅斗 氏（東京大学）

Guest Speaker 1: Masato Oikawa (The University of Tokyo)

Title: Does the information improvement change the health investment behavior and consequent outcomes? The heterogeneous effects across educational groups

.Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of health checkup on health outcomes and behaviors focusing on the heterogeneity of the education. I use the variation from checkup policy revision in Japan. In Japan, the employees have to receive the checkups by the law and the participation rate of them is higher than that of others. I use the difference in the intensity of participation rate of the health checkup to control for the endogeneity of the checkup participation and employ the difference-in-difference estimation with regarding the employed individuals as treatment group and the non-employed as control group. According to the estimated results, the university graduates with relatively high risk of obesity significantly improve the Body Mass Index, which is a measure of obesity, although there is no significant change among the non-university graduates with high obesity risk. Additionally, there are significant changes in the health behaviors such as exercise and nutrition intakes among the higher educated. These results suggest that there is the educational heterogeneity of the response to the health information. Additionally, only the basic cognitive abilities are different among these two groups.  These results suggest that higher educated people effectively process the new information and improve their health conditions by using their cognitive abilities.

報告者2：横山泉 氏（一橋大学）

Guest Speaker 2: Izumi Yokoyama (Hitotsubashi University)

Title: Inequality through Wage Response to the Business Cycle–Evidence from the FFL Decomposition Method (with Naomi Kodama, and  Yoshio Higuchi)

 Abstract: The year 1997 was a turning point in the labor market in Japan. In that year, the attitudes of enterprise unions and stock markets toward downsizing began to change, which resulted in an increase in the probability of dismissal, even among unionized workers. In this study, we first present  theoretical predictions on the impact of this increased probability of dismissal on the wage response to the business cycle by applying shirking theory. The higher the probability of dismissal, as is typical for low earners, the more likely that shirking theory becomes applicable, while for those whose probability of dismissal is potentially small or almost zero (e.g., high earners), shirking theory does not fit. We find that the change in 1997 weakened the relationship between the business cycle and the wages of low earners compared with beforehand; on the contrary, the change in the wage response to the business  cycle for high earners was only very small. Second, our empirical exercises using the Firpo, Fortin, and Lemieux decomposition method show that wages became less pro-cyclical for low earners after 1997 compared with before and unchanged for high earners. Given these different responses between low and high earners, the 1997 structural change in the labor market contributed to shrinking wage inequality in recessions thereafter. Our theoretical and empirical evidence provides a valuable insight into why recent wage growth is sluggish, even with a labor shortage.

2018年4月6日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1：會田剛史 氏（日本貿易振興機構アジア経済研究所）

Guest Speaker 1: Takeshi AIDA (Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization)

Title: Exploring the Relationship between Subjective Well-being and Objective Poverty Indices: Evidence from Panel Data in South Africa

Abstract: This study investigates the relationship between subjective well-being and objective poverty indices such as income poverty and multidimensional poverty. Although they are popular indices, very few studies have analyzed their relationship using rigorous econometric approach. By applying the Blow-up and Cluster estimation of fixed effects ordered logit model to a panel data collected in South Africa, this study finds that both income and multidimensional poverties significantly aggravate subjective well-being. However, their effects are not robust to the inclusion of household income, implying that being below the poverty lines do not have additional information to explain subjective well-being. Moreover, a large part of the variation in subjective well-being cannot be explained by these objective poverty indices, suggesting strong complementarity between subjective and objective welfare measures. This study also finds that multidimensional poverty index constructed based on principal component analysis performs better than the conventional approach, casting doubt on the conventional multidimensional poverty index.

報告者2：川口大司 氏（東京大学）

Guest Speaker 2: Daiji KAWAGUCHI (The University of Tokyo)

Title: It's in Your Genes: How Genes Explain Alcohol Consumption and Labor Market Outcomes (with Jungmin Lee and Izumi Yokoyama)   

Abstract: About a half of Japanese and South Koreans are genetically incapable of digesting alcohol because of the deficiency of aldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH) that dissolves toxic acetaldehyde resulting from alcohol intake. We conduct surveys in Japan and South Korea that cover about 2,000 and 500 prime-age men in each country including bio-marker information on alcohol tolerance along with the frequency and amount of alcohol consumption, wage and other demographic variables. We find that the alcohol tolerance increases alcohol consumption and hourly wage. These findings however do not indicate the causal impact of alcohol intake on wages as we find suggestive evidences for the violation of the exclusion restriction due to the heterogeneity in the treatment effects depending on the digestive ability.

2018年3月2日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1：嶋本大地 氏 （早稲田大学）

Guest Speaker 1: Daichi SHIMAMOTO (Waseda University)

Title: Identifying and Decomposing Peer Effects on Decision-Making Using a Randomized Controlled Trial

Abstract: This paper investigates peer effects on firm managers' decisions. We invited 131 randomly selected firm representatives to three one-day seminars on export promotion. We found that peers' invitation in the seminars has a positive effect on firms' participation. We distinguish between peers' invitation on the same day and other days, finding that the former has a positive effect while the latter has no significant effect. These results imply that peer effects arise mostly through interpersonal benefits. Our results suggest that multiple equilibria in the share of participants within each network of firms may emerge.

報告者2：室賀貴穂 氏 （東京大学）

Guest Speaker 2: Kiho MUROGA (The University of Tokyo)

Title: Deduction or Payment? Estimation of the Behavioral Changes Using the Japanese Child Benefit System

Abstract: We empirically estimated the effects of cash benefit and tax deduction on the time allocation change of women by using the Japanese child benefit payments reform. The amount of child benefit payments was dramatically increased in 2011, but the source was the abolishment of the dependent deduction. We used this policy change in order to answer the following research questions: (1) Do apparent amount of cash benefit deceive the people?; (2) Do they change their time allocation?. We found that working hours are significantly decreased and household hours are significantly increased, and we also revealed that coefficients of child benefit payments and tax deduction are different. Therefore, we concluded that the people behave differently as the experimental literatures point out.

2018年2月2日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1：濱秋純哉 氏 （法政大学）

Guest Speaker 1: Junya HAMAAKI (Hosei University)

Title: The Intra-Family Division of Bequests and Bequest Motives: Empirical Evidence from a Survey on Japanese Households

Abstract: The division of bequests among family members differs sharply between Japan and the United States. Whereas in the United States, bequests tend to be divided equally among decedents’ children, they tend to be divided unequally in Japan. This paper first tries to answer why this is this case. We start by arguing that certain legal and institutional aspects that lead to equal bequests in the United States are not present in Japan. We then investigate patterns of bequest division in Japan to understand parental bequest motives. In particular, we compare the division of bequests in primary and secondary inheritances to examine parental motives and the role of traditional family values in Japan. While in the case of both "primary" and "secondary" inheritances (referring to inheritances where the first parent has died and inheritances in which the second parent has died, respectively) the patterns of bequest division in Japan look generally consistent with a variety of parental bequest motives proposed in the literature, the role of these motives, especially of the dynastic and strategic motives, is more prominent in primary inheritances, in which the surviving spouse has the opportunity to express his/her intentions. However, Japanese parents, contrary to predictions of the altruism model, appear not to bequeath more to economically disadvantaged children.

報告者2：村松幹二 氏 （駒澤大学）

Guest Speaker 2: Kanji MURAMATSU (Komazawa University)

Title: 日本における死刑と厳罰化の犯罪抑止効果の実証分析

Abstract: 殺人、強盗殺人などの凶悪犯罪は1990年代後半から増加し、2000年代前半から減少、現在は1990年代以下の水準となっている。同時期に死刑判決も増減したが、2010年以降は時効の廃止や裁判員裁判による死刑判決など制度の変容が見られる。しかし、犯罪の増減の要因、制度変更の影響とも分析は進んでいない。村松幹二、デイビッド・ジョンソン、矢野浩一「日本における死刑と厳罰化の犯罪抑止効果の実証分析」（『犯罪をどう防ぐか』岩波書店シリーズ「刑事司法を考える」第6巻、2017）では、警察大学校・警察政策研究センターの協力を得て1990年から2010年前半までの月次データを入手し、構造ベクトル自己回帰分析（VAR）を使って死刑判決、死刑執行、法制度改正が殺人、強盗殺人・致死認知件数に与える影響を分析した。その結果、①この期間において、死刑判決人数、死刑執行人数の増減は殺人、強盗殺人・致死に対して有意な抑止効果は見られなかった。②時効の延長及び有期刑の上限の延長という法改正による厳罰化は強盗殺人・致死に対する抑止効果が見られた。本報告では、近年の殺人事件、判決・死刑執行の動向、国内外の研究の動向を見たうえで、上記の分析結果の意義を多面的に検討し、今後の研究のあり方について広く議論したい。

2018年1月12日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1：佐々木勝 氏 （大阪大学）

Guest Speaker 1: Masaru SASAKI  (Osaka University)

Title: Testing Reference-Dependent Model: A Laboratory Search Experiment

Abstract: 本研究では，サーチ実験を用いて参照点依存モデルの検証を行う．サーチ実験では，ランダムに引かれたポイントに基づいて，そのポイントを受諾するか拒否するかの意思決定を行う．また，ポイントを拒否した場合に一定の確率でサーチ行動が強制終了させられる，random termination条件と，次のポイントが一定の値で割り引かれる，discount条件の二種類を設定した．理論的には，期待効用モデルの下では留保ポイントは二種類の条件間で同じになるが，参照点依存モデルの下ではrandom termination条件の方がdiscount条件よりも留保ポイントが小さくなることを利用して，参照点依存モデルを検証した．実験の結果，参照点依存モデルは支持されなかった．また，アンケートを用いて測定したリスク選好と損失回避とサーチ行動との相関でも同様の結果が得られた．

報告者2：大竹文雄 氏 （大阪大学）

Guest Speaker 2: Fumio OHTAKE (Osaka University)

Title: オキシトシンと内集団びいきに関する競争実験

Abstract: 本研究では，競争選好と信頼に関する複数の実験を行った．第１に，信頼を高める働きをすると考えられているオキシトシン・ホルモンの増加が，競争的報酬体系への選好を低下させるか否かの実験である．オキシトシン投与群とプラセボ投与群を作り，被験者間比較を行った．第２に，オキシトシンが信頼行動に影響を与えているかを確認するため，競争実験後にKosfeld et al. (2005) の再現実験（信頼ゲーム）を実施した．第３に，内集団・外集団が形成されたとき，内集団とは競争しないという仮説が成り立つか否かを最小集団法を用いて検証した．

2017年12月1日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1：有田伸 氏 （東京大学）

Guest Speaker 1: Shin ARITA (The University of Tokyo)

Title: 正規/非正規雇用間格差の社会学的説明の試み―就業者のカテゴリー区分に着目して

Abstract: 日本の労働市場では，職種の違いのみならず，企業規模や雇用形態（正規雇用か非正規雇用か）の違いも大きな報酬格差と結びついており，これらの格差が社会の強い関心を集めてきた．本報告では，これらの報酬格差，特に正規/非正規雇用間の格差を，社会学の視点から理解し，説明することを試みる．具体的には，まず社会学（特に社会階層論）の領域において，これらの格差がどのように扱われてきたのかを概観した後，正規/非正規雇用間の格差に焦点を当て，国際比較の視点から，日本における「正規雇用」と「非正規雇用」のカテゴリー区分とその間に存在する報酬格差の特徴を検討する．さらに，これらのカテゴリー区分が随伴する報酬格差に関して，各カテゴリーに対して付与される意味とそれによる「正当化」の契機に着目した社会学的な説明枠組みの提示を試みる．本報告を通じて強調されるのは，就業者や仕事が互いにどのように区分され，その区分が標準化され，さらにそれらがどのように意味付けられるかは，社会間である程度異なっており，そのような区分の体系が実際の報酬格差のあり方とも強く関連しているという事実である．

報告者2：小原美紀 氏 （大阪大学）

Guest Speaker 2: Miki KOHARA  (Osaka University)

Title: The Impact of Work-Life Balance Policies on the Time Allocation of Japanese Couples (with Bipasha Maity) PDF

Abstract: We analyse the impact of work-life balance policies enacted by the government of Japan on the share of time allocated by Japanese women vis-a-vis their husbands to paid employment and home production on a typical working day. Using panel data and employing random and fixed effects estimations to control for unobserved individual heterogeneity, we find that these policies have had a somewhat limited success in altering cultural norms about the gender division of labor in Japanese households. In particular, we find that these policies increased the wife’s share in the couple’s time devoted to paid employment by only 2.4 percent relative to the mean. Further, the share of time spent by the wife in the couple’s time spent in home production has remained largely unaffected on account of these policies. Alternatively, instrumenting for the provision of leave policy at the individual’s firm using information on past leave provision at the level of the industry, yields similar results. We find that the increased share of one’s time in a typical working day devoted by married women to paid employment on account of work-life balance policies is compensated by cutting down on the share of time devoted to leisure as the fraction of time spent performing domestic chores is found to remain largely unchanged.

2017年11月10日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1：陣内悠介 氏 （国際大学）

Guest Speaker 1: Yusuke JINNAI (International University of Japan)

Title: Understanding Job Matching in Online Labor Markets: Evidence from the World's Largest Crowdsourcing Service

Abstract: Although several papers have examined the role of online reviews in internet economy, little is known so far about how much we are willing to pay for such reputation and other related online information when we look for a person to work with. This paper answers this question by using data from the world's largest online labor market, where all transactions are publicly observable. Estimation results show that employers pay closer attention to more detailed information such as experience in a given job category rather than overall online reputations. The findings also demonstrate that employers are more likely to hire workers from some specific countries and less likely to hire those from others, pointing to potential discrimination even in online labor markets where most of private information is not available. By demonstrating a series of new empirical evidence, this study contributes to the growing literature on consumers' online behavior and that on labor-market discrimination.

報告者2：矢ヶ崎将之 氏 （東京大学）

Guest Speaker 2: Masayuki YAGASAKI (The University of Tokyo)

Title: How can we induce more women to competitions? On the role of prosocial incentives

Abstract: Why women avoid participating in a competition and how can we encourage them to participate in it? In this paper, we investigate how social image concerns affect women’s decision to compete. We first construct a theoretical model and show that participating in a competition, even under affirmative action policies favoring women, is costly for women under public situations since it deviates from traditional female gender norms, resulting in women’s low appearance in competitive environments. Our theory also suggests the possibility that introducing prosocial incentives in the competitive environment may alleviate negative effects of social image concerns on women’s decision to compete. We conduct a laboratory experiment where we randomly manipulate the public observability of decisions to compete and test our theoretical predictions. The results of the experiment are fairly consistent with our theoretical predictions. We suggest that when designing policies to promote gender equality in competitive environments, using prosocial incentives through company philanthropy or other social responsibility policies, either as substitutes or as complements to traditional affirmative action policies, could be promising.

2017年10月6日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者１：大山昌子 氏 （龍谷大学）

Guest Speaker 1: Masako OYAMA (Ryukoku University)

Title: Area Income Distribution, Health and Happiness in Japan (with Fumio Ohtake)

Abstract: The effects of area-level income distribution on individual health and happiness are estimated using a panel micro data in Japan for the first time. Three measures of income inequality which are the Gini index, the Gini index of household asset and lagged Gini index are used. As for the health measures, seven measures such as self-rated health, hospital visit and hospitalization are used in the estimations. The panel logit model estimation results show that income distribution did not affect health variables in almost all estimations. However, age, gender, schooling, marital status, smoking and drinking habit, household income and trust to others affected individual health statistically significantly. As for happiness, the result showed that income inequality enhances individual happiness, which is contrary to some existing literatures.

報告者2： 松浦司 氏 （中央大学）

Guest Speaker 2: Tsukasa MATSUURA (Chuo University)

Title: Employee Representation in Japanese Family and Non-Family SMEs (with Tomohiko Noda) PDF  報告資料

Abstract: This paper analyzes differences in the effects of employee representations between family firms and non-family firms. First, managers from non-family firms have a more favorable response towards unions as organizations than managers from family firms. Managers from family firms tend to regard unions as harmful to their management, because unions may bring in outsiders, to the detriment of the management. Second, voice-oriented employee associations tend to exist more in non-family firms than in family ones. Third, these associations have a voice effect suppressing turnover rates in non-family firms, though not in family ones.

第20回労働経済学カンファレンス （2017年9月16－17日 東京大学）

2017年7月7日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者１：Alessandro Cigno 氏 （フィレンツェ大学）

Guest Speaker 1: Alessandro CIGNO (Università di Firenze)

Title: The role of trade and offshoring in the determination of relative wages and child labour (with Giorgia Giovannetti and Laura Sabani) PDF

Abstract: Incorporating family decisions in a two-period model of the world economy, we predict that trade liberalization will raise the skill premium in developing countries where the adult labour force is sufficiently well educated to attract production activities from abroad that raise the demand for skilled relative to unskilled labour. Elsewhere, liberalization will reduce the skill premium. Our prediction is not rejected by the data, and it explains why child labour is negatively associated with trade openness in relatively well educated developing countries, but not in relatively less well educated ones.

報告者2： 山内慎子 氏 （政策研究大学院大学）

Guest Speaker 2: Chikako YAMAUCHI (The National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)

Title: The impact of access to health facilities on maternal care use and health status: Evidence from longitudinal data from Uganda (with Fredrick Manang) PDF

Abstract: Maternal and child mortality remains high in developing countries. While timely antenatal care and delivery at formal facility are recommended, many mothers do not use them. This paper investigates whether newly established health facilities affect maternal health care utilization as well as the health of mothers and children. In order to deal with possibly endogenous facility placement, we apply two strategies to the new, decade-long panel data from Uganda: the community-level and mother-level fixed effects models. Results demonstrate differential roles played by large facilities and small clinics. Openings of large facilities increase the probability of delivery at formal facility, attended by trained personnel. This is accompanied by an increased use of inexpensive transportation modes such as walking and own bicycle to delivery places. New community-level clinics, on the other hand, increase regular antenatal care usage and reduce complications during delivery. One explanation might be that accessible clinics help pregnant mothers to avoid preventable problems through early diagnosis of risky cases and/or treatment of existing diseases. Overall, these findings underscore the importance of providing good access to health facilities, in particular to community-level clinics.

2017年6月2日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者１：中村さやか 氏 （名古屋大学）

Guest Speaker 1: Sayaka NAKAMURA (Nagoya University)

Title: The Effect of School Lunch on Early Teenagers’ Body Weight PDF

Abstract: Strengthening nutritional standards for school lunch recently attracts attention as a measure against obesity, but its effectiveness is not fully understood. We examine the population causal effect of Japanese school lunch programs with strict nutritional standards on junior high school students’ weight, exploiting municipal variation in school lunch provision. Unlike in previously studies, individual selection into school lunch participation and stigma induced underreporting of participation are not issues in this study. We use individual level data drawn from the 1975-1994 National Nutrition Survey. To account for possible endogeneity of municipal provision of school lunch, we employ difference in differences framework and compare differences between junior high school students and elementary school students between areas with and without school lunch at junior high schools. We find no evidence that school lunch affects body weight in the full sample analysis. However, in subsample analysis of children with low socioeconomic background, we find significant negative effect of school lunch on BMI and obesity. These findings are robust to propensity score trimming. Additionally, municipal school lunch provision at junior high schools is not significantly associated with growth or weight problems of local preschool and elementary school children, inconsistent with the reverse causality explanation.

報告者2： 神門善久 氏 （明治学院大学）

Guest Speaker 2: Yoshihisa GODO (Meiji Gakuin University)

Title: 外国人技能実習制度の新局面：農業と介護の現場から PDF1 PDF2 PDF3 PDF4

Abstract:   「技能実習」（あるいは「研修」）の名目で、事実上の外国人単純労働者を受け入れるようになったのが、約四半世紀前である。発足当初からさまざまな問題が発生し、国の内外からの批判を受けて、「技能実習」の制度は小刻みに変更されてきた。いまや外国人技能実習生は20万人を超え、逓増基調にある。そういう中で、昨年11月に技能実習法が制定された。しかし、これは、抜本的な改革というよりも、大掛かりな弥縫策というべきであり、あらたな迷走の始まりになりかねない。あまり報道界でも学界でも、技能実習法の制定はあまり話題にならなかったが、日本の労働政策の根幹にかかわる重大問題をはらんでいる。本報告では、とくに農業と介護の現場から、外国人技能実習制度の課題と改善方向を探り、将来をうらなう。

2017年5月12日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者１：戸田淳仁 氏（リクルートワークス研究所）

Guest Speaker 1: Akihito TODA (Recruit Works Institute)

Title: 社会保険の適用拡大による既婚女性の労働供給の変化

Abstract:  2016年10月より厚生年金保険・健康保険の適用者が拡大し、従業員500人以上に勤務する労働者のうち、週労働時間が週30時間以上から20時間以上、年収が130万円以上から106万円以上となった。こうした適用拡大になり、既婚女性の労働供給がどう変化したか。リクルートワークス研究所「全国就業実態パネル調査」の2015年、2016年データを用いて、Difference-in-Differenceを活用し分析した。その結果、トリートメントグループのとり方にもよるが、おおむね労働時間や年収に負の影響が見られ、先行研究と同様の結果が得られた。

報告者2： 倉田正充 氏（上智大学）

Guest Speaker 2: Masamitsu KURATA (Sophia University)

Title: Adoption of Management Practices in the Public Sector of Bangladesh PDF

Abstract: Improving public service delivery remains a key issue in the public sector of developing countries. The emerging literature reveals a positive correlation between the adoption of management practices and public service delivery. However, potential factors associated with the adoption of management practices are less known. We collected data concerning awareness of management concepts and the adoption of management practices in over 1,600 subdistrict offices of public departments in Bangladesh. We show that awareness of management concepts (e.g., Plan-Do-Check-Act, Total Quality Management, and Kaizen) is associated with a higher degree of adoption of management practices and more collaboration with stakeholders. The association is particularly sizable for practices related to process management, such as planning, improvement, and standardization. Financial and physical resources are not associated with adoption. The results are consistent with a previous finding in the private sector that lack of knowledge is a key barrier to the implementation of management practices. Offering simple management training about concrete methods and practices may improve the adoption of management practices.

2017年4月7日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者１：森田果 氏（東北大学）

Guest Speaker 1: Hatsuru MORITA (Tohoku University)

Title: Does Restricting Youth Exposure to Sexual Expression Deter Sexual Offenses?: An Evidence on Long-term Effect

Abstract: Whether exposure to sexual expression stimulates sexual offenses or deters them is a long-disputed issue. Some psychological researches argue that exposure to sexual expression exacerbate sexually aggressive tendency and thus increase sexual offenses in the long term, while there exist empirical researches that point out exposure to sexual expression deter sexual offenses at least in the short term. The latter mainly focus on self-incapacitation (substitution) effect of potential criminals and do not account for the long term effect of exposure to sexual expression. We try to provide a novel evidence of long-term effect of exposure to sexual expression.

      In Japan, most prefectures have been introducing regulation on sexual expression during the last five decades in order to promote healthy development of juveniles. The contents of the regulation are basically the same among prefectures, while the timings of introduction of the regulation are not. We employ this variation to identify the causal effect of introduction of regulation on sexual expression. We find that the introduction of regulation increased the number of indecent assault and public indecency, which are moderate and minor sexual offenses, but did not have an effect on the number of rape, which is intense sexual offense. The findings cast doubt on the efficacy of the regulation on juvenile exposure to sexual expression.

報告者2： 飯塚敏晃 氏（東京大学）

Guest Speaker 2: Toshiaki IIZUKA (The University of Tokyo)

Title: Pay for Performance for Long Term Care （要介護度改善に対する報酬制度の効果について）

Abstract: We examine how pay-for-performance (P4P) affects long-term care (LTC), focusing on adult day-care services. LTC expenditure is expected to increase dramatically, and P4P for LTC could potentially improve welfare by providing better outcomes at lower costs. However, little is known about the effects of P4P on LTC. We exploit a natural experiment in Japan in which a local government (Shiga prefecture) introduced an outcome-based bonus payment in addition to nationally uniform fee-for-service payments. We construct unique matched user-care manager-provider data using the universe of LTC claims data in which care managers’ referral decisions are directly observed. At the population level, using all other prefectures as a control, we find weak evidence that P4P affects LTC outcomes; however, the impact appears very small if it exists at all. Because P4P does not affect LTC expenditures, we conclude that the overall effect of current P4P is negligible. In contrast, at a disaggregated level, within-treatment comparisons find stronger evidence of user selection. After P4P, LTC outcomes improve more when care managers refer users to affiliated providers as opposed to non-affiliated providers. Moreover, care managers refer more users whose care levels are relatively more easily improved to affiliated providers. A lack of risk adjustment and vertical integration of care management and day-care service appear to explain the selection. A successful P4P would need to address these issues.

2017年3月3日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者１：奥平寛子 氏 (岡山大学)

Guest Speaker 1: Hiroko OKUDAIRA (Okayama University)

Title: Regulating Timings of Job Search: Evidence from New College Graduates in Japan PDF

Abstract: Students engage in job search, sometimes quite in advance to graduation, prompting debates to regulate timings of job search. This paper examines a unique case of new college graduates labor market in Japan, where the guideline revision has successfully delayed the timing of job search and forced students to search under the shorter horizon. Based on differential exposures to the guideline revision across regions, I found that the revision significantly increased employment rate at the time of graduation. No positive effect is observed on students’ human capital investment. Timing regulation substantially altered job search behaviors, without serving its end.

報告者2： 森啓明 氏 (一橋大学)

Guest Speaker 2: Hiroaki MORI (Hitotsubashi University)

Title: Task Specificity of Health Capital PricingTask Specificity of Health Capital Pricing PDF

Abstract: A large body of literature estimates the magnitude of health-induced wage losses assuming that health characteristics are uniformly priced across occupations. Adopting a task-based approach, this paper demonstrates that the magnitude of health-induced wage losses

2017年2月3日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者１：増井淳 氏 (創価大学)

Guest Speaker 1: Makoto MASUI (Soka University)

Title: The Determinants of Employer Use of Temporary Contracts in the Frictional Labour Market PDF

Abstract: This paper focuses on the two major reasons that employers use temporary contracts: to flexibly adjust employment (a buffer stock) and to screen workers. The way in which employers decide between these purposes has not drawn theoretical attention. We construct a theoretical model based on a search-matching framework that addresses employers' endogenous choice regarding the reason for using temporary contracts and identifies the conditions under which each purpose will be realised. The main result obtained in this paper is that temporary contracts are likely to be used as screening tools by some or all employers when the unemployment compensation is less generous, employment protection on regular contracts is weak, and the labor market is less tight. In addition, through numerical exercise with reasonable parameter values, we show that temporary jobs with different purposes coexist and that employers choose the screening purpose if the compatibility between an employer and a worker is not excessively high.

報告者2： 朝井友紀子 氏 (東京大学)

Guest Speaker 2: Yukiko ASAI (University of Tokyo)

Title: Overtime premium and hours of work: Lessons from the mandatory increase in the premium rates

Abstract: This study evaluates the impact of a mandatory increase in the overtime premium rate from 25% to 50%. Since the reform applied only to overtime of more than 60 hours per month, it increased the marginal cost of extremely long work hours. In addition, the reform was limited to workers in large-scale firms and non-discretionary workers. Therefore, I identify the causal effects of the reform by comparing changes in work hours of those affected by the reform with those unaffected. The results show that the reform decreased work hours and the incidence of overtime beyond 60 hours per month.

2017年1月13日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者１： 酒井真世 氏 (東京大学)

Guest Speaker 1: Mayo SAKAI (The University of Tokyo)

Title: Referral Hiring of Miners: Case from the Coal Industry in Early Twentieth Century Japan PDF

Abstract: Referral hiring has been a practical solution to the problem of adverse selection in the labor market and, as a result, increasingly attracts interest from economic researchers. This study argues that firms use referral hiring when workers' skills are too specialized for employees in the human resources division to decide on a right candidate. In the 1900s, coal mining firms used referral hiring to screen workers. We focus on the recruitment of miners and study the experience of a coal mine in the 1900s, analyzing employment contracts. Our theoretical predictions argue that workers with traditional manual skills were hired with using referral hiring and unskilled workers and workers with modernized skills were hired directly by firms, not using referral hiring. Our empirical analysis is consistent with the predictions.

報告者2： 清田耕造 氏 (慶應大学)

Guest Speaker 2: Kozo KIYOTA (Keio University)

Title: Multinationals, Intrafirm Trade, and Employment Volatility PDF

Abstract: This paper examines the theoretically ambiguous relationship between the volatility of employment growth and the foreign exposure of a firm. We use unique firm-level data for Japan for the period 1994-2012, which allow us to examine the differences between 1) multinational firms, trading firms, and nontrading firms; 2) manufacturing and wholesale and retail trade; and 3) intrafirm and interfirm trade. One of the major findings is that, in manufacturing, the effect of exports on the volatility of employment varies depending on the share of intrafirm exports to total sales. In contrast, in wholesale and retail trade, exports do not have significant effects on employment volatility. The results suggest that intrafirm trade transmits the effects of foreign demand and supply shocks differently between manufacturing and wholesale and retail trade.

2016年12月2日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者１：近藤恵介 氏 (経済産業研究所)

Guest Speaker 1: Keisuke KONDO (Research Institute of Economy, Trade, and Industry)

Title: Urban wage premium revisited: Evidence from Japanese matched employer-employee data PDF

Abstract: This study investigates channels of urban wage premium using a matched employer-employee data in the Japanese manufacturing sector. Recent literature on the empirics of agglomeration economies assume a two-step channel of urban wage premium that employment density increases total factor productivity (TFP), resulting in higher wages. This study empirically examines the validity of this two-step channel. We find that a standard wage regression approach used in this literature captures not only the two-step channel of urban wage premium but also other different effects even if spatial sorting of skills is controlled for. Empirical results show that a channel between wage and TFP is much weaker than theoretically expected. When we exactly quantify the two-step channel of the urban wage premium, the density elasticity of wage becomes smaller than those in the existing literature. This study reveals that the current approach in the literature captures firm size effects on wages between cities as well, which give an upward bias to the quantification of the two-step channel.

報告者2： 田中万里 氏 (一橋大学)

Guest Speaker 2: Mari TANAKA (Hitotsubashi University)

Title:  Exporting Sweatshops? Evidence from Myanmar PDF

Abstract: There is a long-standing debate over the impact of global trade on workers and firms in developing countries. In this paper I investigate the causal effect of exporting on working conditions and firm performance in Myanmar. This analysis draws on a new survey I conducted on Myanmar manufacturing firms from 2013 to 2015. I use the rapid opening of Myanmar to foreign trade after 2011 alongside identification strategies that exploit product, geographic and industry variations to obtain causal estimates of the impact of trade. I find that exporting has large positive impacts on working conditions in terms of improved fire safety, health-care, union recognition, and wages. My results also indicate that exporting increases firm sales, employment, management practice scores, and the likelihood of receiving a labor audit, which is typically required by foreign buyers.

2016年11月5日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者１：中室牧子 氏 (慶応大学)

Guest Speaker 1: Makiko MAKAMURO (Keio University) 

Title: 学校教育のデータを用いた実験について―課題と展望

報告者2： 古村聖 氏 (武蔵大学)

Guest Speaker 2: Mizuki KOMURA (Musashi University)

Title:  Consequences of war: Japanese demographic transition and the marriage market (with Kota Ogasawara)

Abstract: This study explores the effects of sex ratio on fertility as an outcome of intra-household allocation through the changes in women's bargaining power. We first demonstrate a theoretical model on intra-household bargaining model in which conflicting family goals within a couple exist,  and show that a rise (decrease) in women's power induces a reduction ( an increase) in the number of children. Second, our study empirically confirms the bargaining power effects of sex ratio, by making use of a natural experiment of the Second World War (WWII). Our results show that the change in sex ratio after the WWII had significant impacts on the demographic trend in postwar Japan.

2016年10月7日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者１： Juan Martinez 氏 (慶應義塾大学)

Guest Speaker 1: Juan Martinez (Keio University)

Title: 置き換え効果の企業パネルデータ分析

Abstract: 本稿では、1990年代後半から2000年代前半にかけて観察された「置き換え効果―企業内の高齢化が若年採用を抑制する効果―」のが今日でも見られるのか、その発現と要因について、2005年度から2014年度に渡る企業単位のミクロパネルデータを用いて再検証を行う。本稿の分析で用いるデータは、東洋経済新報社が実施している『CSR（企業の社会的責任）調査』から、主に各企業の雇用状況、労働環境に関する指標を、同じく東洋経済新報社が実施する『会社財務カルテ』から財務指標に関する指標を接続し、パネルデータ化した。分析に際しては、各企業の雇用、労務に関わる指標や財務状況、産業等をコントロールし、OLSやトービットモデルを用いて、中高齢者の割合が若年者の新卒採用にどのような影響を与えているかを検証する。企業固有の要因をコントロールするため、OLS推計においては階差モデルを、トービット推計においては変量効果モデルを用いる。また、分析期間内で、上記の関係がどのように変化したかについても考察を行う。

報告者2： 安達佳弘 氏 (厚生労働省)

Guest Speaker 2: Yoshihiro Adachi (Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare)

Title: 「平成28年度 労働経済の分析」（労働経済白書）について 

Abstract: 通常の研究会の報告とは異なり、労働経済白書を題材として、政策的な課題について議論したいと思います。今年9月に発表された労働経済白書では、「誰もが活躍できる社会の実現と労働生産性向上に向けた課題」と題して、少子高齢化による労働力供給の制約克服に向け、労働生産性の向上や、就業意欲のある高年齢者等が活躍できる環境整備の方策等につき分析をまとめています。（幹事・記）

2016年9月17日(土)、18日(日) 大阪大学 中之島センター

第19回労働経済学コンファレンス/19th Labor Economics Conference

2016年7月1日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1： 山田憲 氏 (京都大学)

Guest Speaker 1: Ken YAMADA (Kyoto University)

Title: The Impact of Taxes and Transfers on Skill Premium (joint with Shuhei Takahashi)

Abstract: 

    The level of inequality varies widely across countries. One of the major reasons for this is a significant cross-country difference in the college wage premium. This paper examines the impact of taxes and transfers on skill premium in the context of a heterogeneous-agent incomplete-markets model, in which the population consists of skilled and unskilled workers, and the production technology exhibits capital-skill complementarity. In this model, capital income taxation has an effect to reduce the skill wage premium and, to a lesser extent, the skill welfare premium. The analysis suggests that differences in the tax and transfer system can account for part of the difference in skill premium between Japan and United States.

報告者2： 川田恵介 氏 (広島大学)

Guest Speaker 2: Keisuke KAWATA (Hiroshima University)

Title: Understanding job preference among young Japanese workers: Non-parametric conjoint and welfare analysis

Abstract: 

    This paper proposes a new approach to examine worker's job-preference. We combine new conjoint-experiment design (Hainmueller, et., al. 2013) and empirical welfare analysis (Bhattacharya. 2015), which allows us to non-parametrically estimate the distributional causal effects of job characteristics on willingness-to-pay and surplus gain from hypothetical policies. We apply this approach to Japan's labor market of young workers and then obtain that jobs without relocation consistently have statistically and economically significant impacts on labor surplus. Additionally, jobs without over-time and with longer child-care leave also have positive impacts, while longer elderly-care leave does have no clear effect.

2016年6月3日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1：Michael Leeds 氏 (Temple大学)

Guest Speaker 1: Michael LEEDS (Temple University)

Title: Adverse Selection among Job Changers: Evidence from the National Basketball Association PDF

報告者2： Danni Catambay 氏 (一橋大学)

Guest Speaker 2: Danni CATAMBAY (Hitotsubashi University)

Title: Violent Crime: of Self Esteem and Social Regard PDF

Abstract: 

    Violent crime plagues the poorest neighborhoods of the United States, often being concentrated amongst minority populations. Despite being closely linked to income, violent crime does not obey the typical rules of revealed rational preferences. This paper builds a theoretical model based on insights from    demographic and psychological studies to link violence with social inequality through a self-esteem production function. Agents choose rationally their investment in education and involvement in violence, but suffer an emotional penalty if their social rank does not equate with their self esteem. The main findings are that violence on an individual level can be predicted by a combination of wealth and esteem type, while on an aggregate level it is more closely linked to relative than objective poverty and that punishment based deterrence may fail to reduce overall crime rates.

2016年5月13日（金） 15:00~18:00 上智大学10号館301

報告者1：窪田康平 氏 (山形大学)

Guest Speaker 1: Kohei KUBOTA (Yamagata University)

Title: Credit Constraints, Education, and Intergenerational Mobility: Evidence form U.S. Survey Data

Abstract: 

     This study investigates the determinants of being credit constrained from seeking education and whether educational attainment affects intergenerational mobility in the U.S.. Education is one of the determinants of intergenerational mobility. Moreover, credit constraint could be one of main reason to prevent the advancement of education. Empirical results drawn from original U.S. survey data through direct questionnaires indicate that respondents from more recent birth cohorts and respondents whose parents occupied lower economic status are more credit constrained from academic advancement. To evaluate intergenerational mobility, the study uses respondents’ past and present self-reported standards of living as proxies. This article estimates the effects of educational level on intergenerational mobility using local average treatment effects (LATE). The results indicate that living standards of respondents who desired to pursue postsecondary education but could not because of credit constraints are significantly lower than respondents who could progress to postsecondary schooling. 

報告者2：梶谷真也 氏 (明星大学)

Guest Speaker 2: Shinya KAJITANI (Meisei University)

Title: Use It Too Much and Lose It? The Effect of Working Hours on Cognitive Ability (with Colin McKenzie and Kei Sakata) PDF

Abstract: 

    Using data from Wave 12 of the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, we examine the impact of working hours on the cognitive ability of people living in Australia aged 40 years and older. Three measures of cognitive ability are employed: the Backward Digit Span; the Symbol Digits Modalities; and a 25-item version of the National Adult Reading Test. In order to capture the potential non-linear dependence of cognitive ability on working hours, the model for cognitive ability includes working hours and its square. We deal with the potential endogeneity of the decision of how many hours to work by using the instrumental variable estimation technique. Our findings show that there is a non-linearity in the effect of working hours on cognitive functioning. For working hours up to around 25 hours a week, an increase in working hours has a positive impact on cognitive functioning. However, when working hours exceed 25 hours per week, an increase in working hours has a negative impact on cognition. Interestingly, there is no statistical difference in the effects of working hours on cognitive functioning between men and women.

2016年4月1日（金） 15:00~18:00 上智大学2号館会議室A

報告者1：橋本由紀 氏 (九州大学)

Guest Speaker 1: Yuki HASHIMOTO (Kyushu University)

Title: Who are Japan’s Immigrant Professionals? 

Abstract: 

    Facing a population decline, Japan is pushing hard to accept foreign nationals who can contribute to the revitalization of its economy. In particular, the government has promoted the acceptance of foreign workers with technical and professional skills. However, it doesn’t seem to be clear where and how they work. This paper, using microdata from the Japanese Population Census (2000 and 2010), empirically analyzes the characteristics of foreign professionals and their working areas. This study yielded two major findings. First, foreign high-skilled workers are concentrated in both the education and information/communications industries. Immigrants who had been living outside of Japan five years prior to the census or graduated from overseas universities are more likely to be employed as professionals than immigrants who had stayed in Japan more than five years or graduated from Japanese universities. Second, they tend to choose employment areas where the number of Japanese workers in the same industry are relatively small, foreign residents of the same nationality are not concentrated, and there are many foreign professionals overall.

報告者2：別所俊一郎 (慶応義塾大学)

Guest Speaker 2: Shunichiro BESSHO (Keio University) PDF

Title: Do benefits in kind or refunds affect health service utilization and health outcomes? A natural experiment from Japan

Abstract: 

    The Japan Medical Association, a lobby of physicians, went on strike in July 1971 because of the medical reforms by the government. Although these physicians resigned as health insurance doctors, they continued to provide medical care and even health insurance treatment in some areas. This study uses the regional differences in resignation rates as a natural experiment to examine how the payment method of health insurance affects medical service utilization and health outcomes. Our estimation results indicate that if the participation rate of the strike increased by 1 percentage point and proxy claims were refused completely, the number of cases of insurance benefits and total amount of insurance benefits would decrease by 0.78% and 0.58%, respectively compared with the same month in the previous year. Moreover, the average amount of insurance benefits per claim increased since patients with relatively less serious diseases might have sought healthcare less often. Finally, our results suggest that the strike did not affect death rates in Japan.

2016年3月4日（金） 15:00~18:00 上智大学10号館301

報告者1：高橋新吾 氏 (国際大学)

Guest Speaker 1: Shingo Takahashi (International University of Japan)

Title: Married women’s labor supply response to the 2004 spousal tax exemption reform

報告者2：南村圭哉 氏 (神戸大学) 

Guest Speaker 2: Keiya MINAMIMURA (Kobe University)

Title: From Physical to Human Capital Accumulation: Effects of Mortality Change

Abstract: 

This paper develops a growth model à la Galor and Moav (Review of Economic Studies 71(4):1001--1026, 2004), which captures the replacement of physical capital accumulation by human capital accumulation as the prime engine of growth. We show that (i) decreased mortality promotes this replacement, and (ii) the effect of a decrease in mortality on per-capita income differs across the phases of the development process. Using finite mixture models, we show that our model's predictions are supported by the data.

2016年2月6日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1：関麻衣 氏 (JICA研究所)

Guest Speaker 1: Mai SEKI (JICA Research Institute)

Title: Degree Infation and Hierarchical Labor Demand PDF

Abstract: 

This paper develops a multi-sector job search model that incorporates workers' education choice and firms' hierarchical labor demand to identify and quantify the underlying channel of `degree-inflation' measured by the share of highly educated workers employed in unskilled positions. Highly educated workers being assumed to not always be qualified for skilled tasks gives rise to a vicious circle whereby (i) the information and communication technology (ICT) shock prompts the creation of vacancies for the highly educated rather than general workforce in both skill-intensive and (general) labor-intensive sectors, (ii) a significant proportion of skilled workers eventually perform unskilled tasks in the latter sectors, (iii) the resulting cross-skill matches crowd out the general workforce and suppress unskilled wages, and (iv) the college premium escalates and the college enrollment rate is self-reinforced. Numerical experiments based on Canadian data from early 1980s to 2000s suggest that without degree inflation, the unskilled, skilled, and overall wages in the Canadian labor market would be higher by (upto) 46, 43, and 56 percent, respectively, in early 2000s. For this extent, resolving the degree inflation problem, for example, through improving the quality of higher education, would induce substantial welfare gains to not only skilled workers but also unskilled workers.

報告者2：安達貴教 氏 (名古屋大学) 

Guest Speaker 2: Takanori ADACHI (Nagoya University)

Title: Gender Gap in Start-up Activities (joint with Takanori Hisada)

Abstract:

This study examines the gender gap in start-up activities to determine whether household status or employment status is responsible for creating the observed gender gap. We consider entrepreneurship and intrapreneurship as two different forms of start-up activities: while intrapreneurship is conducted within an existing organization, entrepreneurship is solely an independent activity. This paper focuses on this fundamental distinction to help us identify parameters of our double selection model. Using representative U.S. data, augmented by other sources, we find that the counterfactual rate of entrepreneurial activities by women who have the same (in the distributional sense) characteristics as men is lower than the actual rate for men. A similar result is obtained for intrapreneurial activities. More importantly, our Blinder---Oaxaca decomposition results suggest that for both entrepreneurship and intrapreneurship, women's employment status is more significant than their household status in explaining the gender gap in start-up activities. This is more apparent in the group of whites, college graduates, and those who work for a large firm.

2016年1月8日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1：水落正明 氏 (南山大学）

Guest Speaker 1: Masaaki MIZUOCHI (Nanzan University)

Title: The Effect of Elderly Employment on Youth in Japan

Abstract: 少子高齢化にともなう公的年金支給開始年齢の上昇に対応するため、高年齢者の雇用促進政策が進められている。平成18年に施行された改正高年齢者雇用安定法では、65歳までの雇用が企業に義務付けされた。こうした労働政策には、若壮年者の雇用を悪化させる可能性が懸念され、高年齢者と若壮年者の雇用の「置き換え効果」として注目されている。若壮年者の雇用悪化（賃金低下や非正規雇用の増加）は、家族形成や技術育成を遅らせることで、将来の日本経済に負の影響を与えることも考えられる。そこで本研究では、高年齢者雇用政策が若壮年者の雇用に与えた影響について実証分析を行った。分析データには、「就業構造基本調査」（総務省）の平成24年個票情報を用いた。1983年以降に卒業した男性雇用者（卒業時年齢は30歳以下に限定）の卒業時点の就業状態および調査時点の年収について二段階推定を行ったところ以下のようなことがわかった。第一段階の推定では、マクロレベルの高年齢者雇用比率（30歳以上雇用者に占める60歳以上雇用者の割合）の上昇は、新規学卒者が卒業時に正規職に就けない確率を有意に上昇させることがわかった。第二段階の推定では、卒業時に正規職に就けなかった（新卒時に非正規就職か無業であった）場合、調査時点の年収が約7％減少することが明らかになった。この卒業時に正規職に就けなかった効果は、現職が正規職、パート、契約、派遣の間で差はなかったが、アルバイトの場合はさらに年収を7％減少させる効果があることがわかった。

報告者2：暮石渉 氏 (国立社会保障・人口問題研究所)

Guest Speaker 2: Wataru KUREISHI (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)

Title: Does a Mother’s Early Return to Work After Childbirth Improve Her Future Employment Status?: A Quasi‐experiment Using Japanese Data PDF

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to examine empirically whether or not a mother’s early return to work after maternity leave and parental leave leads to a higher working status. This paper attempts to find out if a mother returns to work within 1 year after childbirth, then she is more likely to stay employed and is more likely to work as a full-time worker than to work as a part-time worker. We estimate 2SLS and bivariate probit models using July births as an instrument. Our IV approach is unique in that we shed the light on the relationship between the timing of birth (birth month) and the timing of the mother’s return to work. Our empirical evidence finds that an early return to work has a positive causal effect on the likelihood of a mother being in fulltime employment in the long-term. However, the positive causal effect of an early return to work on being employed including part-time, self-employed or family worker, and pieceworker at home is not observed.

2015年12月4日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1：李永俊 氏 (弘前大学)

Guest Speaker 1: Youngjun Lee (Hirosaki University)

Title: 地方圏への移住の決定要因とその促進策に関する研究 ‐青森県の住民アンケート調査から‐ PDF

          Key Factors to Determine Internal Migration to Rural Area and Examination of Measures Supporting Internal Migration - in Case of Aomori  

Abstract: 

本論文では、地方圏へ移住する理由を、Uターン、Jターン、Iターンのタイプ別に考察するとともに、同一県内からの移住者についても分析を行っている。また、移住理由についてクラスター分析を用いて類型化し、各クラスターにあった移住促進策を検討する。地方へ移住した後の生活満足度の決定要因にも注目し、定住支援への有効な政策も模索する。その結果、地域内の人口の流動性は地域の性質に大きく依存していることが確認できた。また、移住の理由については、UJターン者においては家族や親族などの存在が大きく影響しているのに対し、Iターン者の場合は仕事場の存在が重要となっている。そして、移住を可能にした条件は移動理由に大きく依存していることが分かった。最後に定住の要件となっている仕事満足度は、移住前後の就業状況、移住理由などに深く関係していることが分かった。この点は、今後の移住・定住促進策を考える上で重要な視点であると思われる。

報告者2：山本勲 氏 (慶應大学) 

Guest Speaker 2: Isamu YAMAMOTO (Keio University)

Title: Why Do People Overwork to Harm Mental Health?

Abstract: 

Based on longitudinal data of Japanese workers, this paper investigates the relationship between workers’ overwork and their mental health. The conventional labor supply theory assumes that a person chooses the best allocation of consumption and leisure (work hours) that maximizes his/her utility. However, people sometimes work too long (overwork) which leads to a serious physical and/or mental health deterioration. We introduce non-pecuniary factors in the conventional utility function that may lead a person to choose longer work hours. In the empirical analysis, we found a non-linear relationship between work hours and job satisfaction. In particular, we found that when work hours exceeds 65 hours, job satisfaction tends to increase. On the other hand, we found that work hours linearly affect workers’ mental health, as long work hours tend to damage their mental health. These findings imply that if people has a tendency to overweigh job satisfaction, he/she is likely to work excessively and as a consequence, may end up with bad mental health. We also found that people are likely to form incorrect belief on the risk of mental health deterioration tend to supply longer work hours. These results may justify the intervention to prevent excessive overwork determined by the individual workers and firms.

2015年11月6日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1：中田大悟 氏 (創価大学)

Guest Speaker 1: Daigo Nakata (Soka University)

Title: 寄付行動の経済分析:東日本大震災前後の変化を中心として

Abstract: 

逼迫する財政状況の下で、NPOなどが機動的にファンドレイジングできる寄付の重要度が高まっている。特に、広域に被害が発生する自然災害などにおいては、政府が画一的な災害対策を行うのではなく、NPO等が柔軟な支援ネットワーク体制を確立するための財源調達手段として、寄付が果たすべき役割は、今後その重要性が増していくものと考えられる。 そこで本稿では、中高齢者を対象としたパネルデータであるJSTAR用いて、東日本大震災前後の家計の寄付行動に関しての実証分析を行った。特に、どのような属性の家計が寄付行動に出やすいのか、また、その特徴は平常時と自然災害直後において違いが見られるか、という点についての分析を行った。得られた主な結論は以下のとおりである。 女性は平常時においても寄付行動を起こしやすいが、金額を有意に増やしたのは2011年の災害発生後だであった。平常時には年齢は寄付行動にさほど影響を持たないが、 2011年の災害発生後は年齢が寄付行動に影響を与え、かつ逆U字の関係性が見いだせた。さらに、フローとストックの経済力はともに寄付に有意な影響を与えるが、特に2011年の災害発生後は資産に恵まれた人がより積極的に寄付を行った。 経済力以外の要因としては、主観的健康状態に不安のある人は寄付を控える傾向がみられ、また国家の役割への認識が強い人ほど寄付金額を抑えた傾向性がみられた。また、地域活動などの日常生活における社会参加が活発な世帯は、より積極的に寄付行動を行っていた。

報告者2：藤木雄太 氏 (厚生労働省 政策統括官付労働政策担当参事官室)

Guest Speaker 2: Yuuta Fujiki (Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare)

Title:  「平成27年版労働経済の分析」（労働経済白書）について

Abstract:

通常の研究会の報告とは異なり、労働経済白書を題材として、政策的な課題について議論したいと思います。

今年9月に発表された労働経済白書では、「労働生産性と雇用・労働問題への対応」と題して、経済再生に向けた我が国の課題、より効率的な働き方の実現、人口減少化における地域経済の在り方について分析をまとめています。

2015年10月2日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1：原ひろみ 氏  (日本女子大学）

Guest Speaker 1: Hiromi HARA (Japan Women's University)

       Title: Glass doors, glass ceilings, or sticky floors? Gender wage gap across the wage distribution between and within establishments in Japan

Abstract: 

This study examines gender wage gaps across the wage distribution in Japan using the quantile regression method on micro data for the years 1990 to 2010. In recent years gender wage gaps are wider at the top of the wage distribution than at the bottom, and thus, there seems to be a glass ceiling in Japan. However, the estimation result shows that after controlling for the effect of an individual’s human capital, gender wage gaps are wider at the bottom than at the top, across the economy. Further, it is shown that there is no difference in gender wage gaps between the bottom and top after controlling for the effect of an establishment’s characteristics. This implies that there are no glass ceilings in Japan, and instead, Japanese female workers rather sort into slightly lower-paying firms than male workers. However, at the same time, the within-establishment difference accounts for most of the gender wage gap. These results suggest that the gender quota system alone cannot solve the gender gap in Japan. In addition, I also conduct the Firpo–Fortin–Lemieux decomposition, and find that the gender wage gaps at the top and the bottom of the distribution are mainly explained by the gender differences in tenure and education. Furthermore, this study also finds that the gender wage gaps at any quantiles of the distribution have been declining over the period 1990–2010.

報告者2：風神佐知子 氏 (中京大学)

Guest Speaker 2: Sachiko KAZEKAMI (Chukyo University)

       Title:  Do service sectors need another core sector to improve their productivity?

Abstract:

    本稿では、地域のサービスセクターの生産性は、他地域へ移送可能な財・サービスを生産するような地域のコアセクターにより高められるのか、そのようなセクターによることなく生産性は上昇するのかを分析した。日本を含めた先進国において、付加価値または就業者に占めるサービスセクターの割合は大きい。従ってこのセクターの生産性を分析することは経済成長へも大きな意味を持つ。かつては生産性の上昇が望めないサービスセクターの増大により経済成長が鈍化するBaumol’s diseaseなどが唱えられたが、近年の研究ではサービスセクターの中には生産性を上昇させ経済成長に貢献するセクターがあることなどが実証されている。サービスセクターの生産性に関する研究は、これまで人口密度が高まることで生産性が上昇するとする密度経済か、あるいは知のスピルオーバーや企業と労働者のマッチングの質の上昇によるとする集積経済に焦点があてられてきた。しかしながら、未だ明確には生産性上昇のメカニズム自体は実証されていない。さらに、本稿で特に注視するサービスセクター以外の地域の産業構造までは捉えられていない。コアセクターの存在有無は地域のサービスセクターの生産性上昇に影響を与えないのか、それとも生産性を上昇させているのか、影響を与えるならばどのようなメカニズムなのかを明らかにした。日本においては、これまではデータの不完備などからサービスセクターの研究自体が少ない。また本稿の分析により、サービスセクターの生産性上昇には当該産業への支援が有用なのか、より広く対象とした方が効果的なのか、示唆できよう。

2015年9月12日 (土)、13日(日) 一橋大学国立キャンパス

第18回労働経済学コンファレンス/18th Labor Economics Conference

2015年7月3日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00    東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1：重岡仁 氏 (サイモン・フレーザー大学) 

Guest Speaker 1: Hitoshi SHIGEOKA (Simon Fraser University)

Title: Can We Steer Income Comparison Attitudes by Information Provision?: Evidence from Randomized Survey Experiments in the US and the UK    PDF

Abstract: 

Economists have long been concerned that negative attitudes about relative income reduce social welfare. This paper investigates whether such attitudes can be mitigated by a simple information treatment. Toward this end, we conducted an original randomized online survey experiment in the US and the UK. As a baseline result, we find that UK respondents compare their incomes with others’ at a much higher rate than US subjects do. Additionally, we find that our information treatment―suggesting that comparing income with others may diminish their welfare even when income levels are actually increasing―made respondents compare incomes more, rather than less. Interestingly, we find such effects only among UK respondents. The mechanism for this among UK respondents seems to be driven by those who are initially less comparison-conscious becoming more comparison-conscious, indicating that our information treatment gives moral “license” to make comparisons by informing that others actually do so.

報告者2：山口一男 氏 (シカゴ大学) 

Guest Speaker 2: Kazuo YAMAGUCHI (University of Chicago)

Title:  男女の所得格差と職業分離の要因     PDF     PPT

Abstract:

    本稿はホワイトカラ―正社員の男女の所得格差について傾向スコアによる標準化に依拠するDFL 法を用いて要素分解をする。結果は年齢、学歴、勤続年数の人的資本3 変数の男女差で男女所得格差の35％ を、職業、労働時間、職階の3 変数合わせて追加の43%を、合計6 変数で格差の78%を説明することを示す。単独では職階の男女差が最も大きな説明力を持つ。また用いた傾向スコアの妥当性について診断を行うとともに、多変量線形回帰分析に基づく説明できない格差の推定はかなりのバイアスを生むことも示す。また6 変数の男女差で説明できない部分についての格差について、人的資本について女性が男性と同等となる場合、および職階も同等となる場合の2 つの仮想の場合に所得格差が減る度合いが、年齢、学歴、職業、労働時間、職階の各カテゴリー間で異なることを明らかにし、以下の結論を得た。➀男女格差が年齢につれて増大する傾向は、40 歳代以降は年齢に伴う男女の職階格差の増大でほとんど説明できる。➁大卒は高卒や短大・高専卒に比べ、今後結婚育児離職率が減れば、より大きな格差解消が望める。➂女性が多数の事務職では人的資本や職階が男女で同じになっても男女の所得格差が大きく残る。➃所得に関する男女の機会の平等は課長以上の職に就く男女の間では、かなり実現されている。

2015年6月5日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室 

報告者1：井深陽子 氏 (東北大学) 

Guest Speaker 1: Yoko IBUKA (Tohoku University)

Title: Dynamics of Health and the Economy over Time in Japan 

Abstract: 

Existing studies repeatedly show that individual health improves during economic downturns in developed countries using mortality as health measures. This study examines the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and general health of individuals in Japan, a country with an economic structure distinct from that of the US and other developed countries. We use nationally representative data of more than 2 million Japanese between 1998 and 2010, the period during which the country experienced sizable macroeconomic fluctuations from post “lost decade” and the global financial crisis. We find that self-reported health status is negatively associated with unemployment rate, which is qualitatively consistent with findings from previous studies. However, our results show that unlike in the US, the impact isnot most pronounced for the working-age population, and lower-income individuals and the elderly are most affected by economic conditions. Moreover, the impact was reversed for some population, and a negative impact from recessions was observed among middle age male workers. The difference in the affected population from the previous US studies is likely due to the difference in the labor market conditions, which is one of the key mechanisms on the impact of business cycles on health.    

報告者2：横山泉 氏 (一橋大学) 

Guest Speaker 2: Izumi YOKOYAMA (Hitotsubashi University)

Title: How the 2003 social insurance premium reform affected firm behavior

Abstract: 

In 2003, a total reward system was introduced in Japan for the employees' pension insurance and health insurance. This reform increased the insurance premiums for bonuses from 2.0% to 21.87% and decreased the monthly salary premiums from 25.96% to 21.87%. Although it was a uniform change across the country, some firms have experienced an increased burden, while the burden on other firms has decreased. Theoretically, the firms with increased costs have incentives to decrease the fraction of bonuses among all compensations, and this tendency should be stronger for those firms that had a very high bonus ratio originally. We conducted this investigation to explore how this reform has affected firms’ behaviors, particularly the bonus–monthly salary ratio. Quantile difference-in-differences and the Dinardo, Fortin, and Lemieux decomposition confirmed the above hypothesis. Further, when the changes in each organization’s total labor cost were evaluated, the mode of the total labor cost shifted down and the distribution showed an overall shift to the left. It is true that we focused only on the total wages passed onto workers, but the social security payments paid by employers should have also changed due to the reform. Thus, the reform might have resulted in firms maintaining constant total labor costs through adjustment of wages paid to workers.

2015年4月3日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室 

報告者1：山口慎太郎 氏 (マクマスター大学) 

Guest Speaker 1: Yoko IBUKA (Toho University)

Title: Childcare Availability, Household Structure, and Maternal Employment (Presentation in English) PDF

Abstract: 

We estimate the causal effects of childcare availability on the maternal employment rate using prefecture panel data constructed from the Japanese quinquennial census 1990-2010. We depart from previous papers on Japan by controlling for prefecture fixed effects, without which the estimates can be severely biased upward. Contrary to popular belief, childcare availability is uncorrelated with maternal employment when prefecture fixed effects are controlled. Evidence suggests that this is because households shift from using informal childcare provided by grandparents to the accredited childcare service, as more and more households do not live with grandparents. If this change of the household structure did not occur, the growth of childcare availability would have increased the maternal employment rate by two percentage points, which accounts for about 30% of the growth in the maternal employment rate from 1990 to 2010.

報告者2：Drew Griffen 氏 (東京大学) 

Guest Speaker 2: Drew Griffen (the University of Tokyo)

Title: Assessing the Performance of Nonexperimental Estimators for Evaluating Head Start (Presentation in English) 

Abstract: 

This paper uses experimental data from the Head Start Impact Study (HSIS) combined with nonexperimental data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study - Birth Cohort (ELCS-B) to study the performance of nonexperimental estimators for evaluating Head Start program impacts. The estimators studied include cross-section and difference-in-differences regression estimators, and cross-section and ifference-in-difference matching estimators. The measures include cognitive achievement test scores, child health measures, measures of parenting behaviors and parent labor market outcomes. Some of the estimators reproduce the experimental results fairly closely for some outcomes, but a priori it would be difficult to know whether the estimator will work well for any particular outcome. Pre-program exogeneity tests eliminate outcomes and estimators with the worst biases, but estimators/outcomes with substantial biases pass these tests. Difference-indifference regression and matching estimators generally exhibit lower bias than cross-sectional regression and matching estimators.

2015年4月3日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室 

報告者1：浦川邦夫 氏 (九州大学) 

Guest Speaker 1: Kunio URAKAWA (Kyushu University)

"Time-adjusted poverty among working households in Japan" PDF

Abstract:

Time is a finite resource along with money, and it is essential to fulfilling the basic needs of life. This research focuses on ‘time poor’ individuals in Japan, where people do not have enough time to engage in child care and housework as well as leisure and other activities. We defined income and time poverty thresholds and estimated the time-adjusted income poverty by considering the situation where households fall into income poverty by purchasing housework-related services in the market to compensate for their time deficit. Based on the estimated results, we demonstrated that the government needs to increase the policy support, especially for single-parents with children and for double-income couples with children.

報告者2：高久玲音 氏 (医療経済研究機構) 

Guest Speaker 2: Reo TAKAKU (Institute for Health Economics and Policy (IHEP))

"Maternal Labor Supply, Childcare Provision and Child Health: Regression Discontinuity Evidence From Japan" PDF

Abstract:

In Japan, mothers are likely to exit from labor market when their eldest child enrolls in elementary school because of many institutional barriers such as shortage of after school childcare. Using the eldest child's enrollment in elementary school as an exogenous shock to maternal labor supply, this paper explores how health of the younger preschool siblings responds to the decreased maternal labor supply. Using a regression discontinuity design, I marginally compare health outcomes of the preschool children whose eldest sibling enrolls in elementary school or remains in preschool. The results show the maternal employment rate drops by 4-5 percentage points after the eldest child's school entry. In addition, I find significant increases of parental care for the younger siblings. As a result of substantial decreases in maternal labor supply and increasing parental care, the probability of taking a "fever" decreases among the younger siblings, suggesting reduction of maternal labor supply improve child health. However, there seem to be no improvements on the other subjective and objective measures of child health such as the incidence of injuries and hospitalization. Taken together, this paper indicates that the reduction of maternal labor supply is associated with the improvement of the health of preschool children, but the magnitude is not large at least in the short run.

2015年3月6日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1 酒井正 氏 (法政大学)

"家族介護が就業時間に与える影響－メタ回帰分析による評価－" PDF

Abstract:

家族を介護する必要性から就業が断念される可能性について，各国で実証分析が蓄積されて来た．パネル・データ等に基づいた比較的最近の研究には，家族介護が就業へ及ぼす影響は必ずしも大きくないとするものもあるが，分析によって影響の大きさが異なり，それらの差異をもたらす系統的な要因については必ずしも明らかになっていない．そこで，本稿では，介護が労働時間に与える影響をメタ回帰分析によって評価することを試みた．暫定的な結果からは，1）最小二乗法以外の方法による介護の内生性を考慮した推定では，介護が労働時間に及ぼす効果が小さく推定される傾向にあること，2）出版バイアスを考慮すると，純粋な介護の労働時間抑制効果は小さいと予想されることがわかった．

報告者2 太田聰一 氏 (慶應義塾大学)

"学部別データを用いた大卒就職率の実証分析"

Abstract:

近年、大学別・専攻別の就職率データの公表が進んでいる。本稿では、そうしたデータを活用して大卒就職率の決定要因を明らかにする。とりわけ、大学のカリキュラム内容と正規就職率との関連に焦点を当てる。分析の結果、一部の教育変数と就職率に有意な関係が検出された。

2015年2月6日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1 Fumihiko SUGA (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))

"An Equilibrium Model of Pension Provision and Wage Determination" PDF

Abstract:

This paper proposes and estimates a structural model of screening by employer-provided pension. The model can explain why firms offer contributions to pension plans and why workers with pension plans earn more and stay longer with their employer than those without pension. In the model, there are firms that have a production function with high marginal productivity of labor and a fixed cost of hiring a worker, and they offer contributions to workers' pension plans in conjunction with low human capital rental rates in order to screen out "high discounters". The model illustrates how workers are sorted into jobs with pension and without pension according to their time preferences and human capital level. Although this paper focuses on 401(K) plans, the basic idea can be applied to other forms of employer-provided pensions as well; this is one of the biggest advantages of the idea of screening by employer-provided pensions. The model is estimated by using U.S. data. The estimation results show how workers are sorted into jobs with pension and without pension. Results of a counter-factual simulation study show that the tax benefits of 401(K) plans have a great impact on the retirement assets of workers and the way they are sorted into jobs with pension and without pension; the pension balance at age 61 declines by 50%, while the number of workers working for pension-providing firms increase. This is because less employees' contributions to pension plans reduce firms' contributions to pension plans and firms can afford to offer higher human capital rental rate. Thus more workers are attracted by pension-providing firms when the tax benefit is eliminated.

報告者2 Naomi KODAMA (Hitotsubashi University)

"Gender Equality in Management and HRM Practices: Evidence from Japan"

Abstract:

This paper uses unique firm-level panel data from Japan and provides the first rigorous econometric evidence on the possible impact on gender inequality in management of HRM practices. The data are created by matching several panel data on Japanese firms using unique company codes; (i) Data from the Intangible Assets Interview Survey in Japan conducted by the RIETI; (ii) CSR Data compiled by Toyo Keizai; and (iii) Corporate Proxy Statement Data compiled by Development Bank of Japan. Our fixed-effect estimates reveal that the introduction of Work-Life Balance (WLB) policies has no significant effect on gender equality in management-yet another evidence for the inefficacy of WLB policies in boosting careers of women.

In contract to the absence of any impact on gender equality of WLB, we find evidence that the introduction of Performance-Based Pay and Promotion (PBPP) leads to diminished gender equality in management. To explore why gender inequality rises in the advent of PBPP, we augment the baseline model by an interaction term involving PBPP and MBO (Management by Objectives). The fixed effect estimates shows that the inequality-enhancing effect of PBPP is mediated and in fact nullified by the use of MBO. The significant mediating role of MBO suggests that the adverse impact on gender equality of PBPP may have something to do with gender discrimination in performance evaluation-the introduction of PBPP often represents a shift from traditional Seniority-Based Pay and Promotion (SBPP) to PBPP, and since SBPP is less subjective than PBPP, PBPP has more room for gender discrimination than SBPP. MBO, establishing more formal evaluation procedure, reduces room for gender discrimination in evaluation. Likewise, we find evidence that transparent management with open and frequent sharing of information mediates the negative effect on gender equality of PBPP.

In contrast, we find that when the firm delegates authorities to self-managed teams and practices a high-performance system, the gender inequality-enhancing effect of PBPP will be amplified. We interpret the result, based on the gender behavior theory. Lastly, the efficacy of PBPP is found to be diminished when the firm still hangs onto traditional lifetime employment, for lifetime employment is complementary to SBPP not to PBPP.

2015年1月9日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1 野村亜紀子 氏 (野村資本市場研究所)

"日本の企業年金をめぐる課題と求められる制度改正" PDF

Abstract:

少子高齢化が進む日本では、公的年金の給付抑制が不可避であり、企業年金を含む私的年金を拡充し所得代替率を確保することの重要性が増す。日本の年金制度の所得代替率はOECD諸国平均を下回っており、決して十分とは言えない状況にある。

より多くの国民が企業年金に加入することが重要だが、近年の企業年金カバー率はむしろ低下傾向にある。原因は、社会・経済環境の変化から、多くの企業にとって伝統的な確定給付型年金（DB）の提供が困難になっていることにある。代わって拡大しているのが確定拠出年金（DC）である。DCには、1.加入者毎の個人勘定設定と受給権確保、2.離転職時の年金ポータビリティ、3.加入者による運用指図という特徴がある。

DCのさらなる普及が企業年金カバー率向上の鍵を握る。現在、社会保障審議会企業年金部会で企業年金制度改正の議論が進められているが、DCの拠出限度額の引き上げ、加入対象者の拡大などの実現が求められる。また、資産運用に馴染みの薄い加入者であっても、長期的な資産形成を実践できるようなサポート体制の整備も必要と考えられる。

報告者2 大湾秀雄 氏 (東京大学)

"従業員持株会参加と生産性"

Abstract:

全国証券取引所協議会、および東京証券取引所が収集した過去25年間の東証上場企業4003社の従業員持株会状況調査結果を用いて、従業員の資本参加が生産性に与える影響の分析を行った。観測できない企業特性による内生性バイアスを除去するため、固定効果モデル、および奨励金を元に作成した操作変数を用いた固定効果2SLSモデルの推計によって、下記の結果を得た。（１）従業員の持株会参加者数（あるいは参加率）および参加者一人当たり保有金額は全要素生産性と正の相関を持つものの、操作変数法を用いるとその効果は消え、因果関係は確認できなかった、（２）持株会保有比率は、生産性と有意に負の相関を持ち、操作変数法を用いた分析においても10％レベルの有意性ながら、負の影響を持つことがわかった。従業員の持株会参加が安定株主の増加を通じて、経営陣の合理化努力を弱めている可能性を示唆している。株価との関係でも、持株会保有比率上昇が、短期的には株価と正の相関を持つが、長期的には負の相関を持つことが示唆された。また、従業員持株会が大株主名簿に載ることで株価を押し上げる、いわゆるプラスのシグナリング効果が観測された。

2014年12月5日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1 玄田有史 氏 (東京大学)

"東日本大震災が仕事に与えた影響について"

Abstract:

本稿は総務省統計局が2012年に実施した就業構造基本調査の特別集計により、東日本大震災が仕事に与えた影響を実証分析した。分析では震災発生の2011年3月時点における就業状態や居住市町村を特定化した上で、全国ならびに被災市町村の就業者への影響を考察した。

その結果、震災の影響は東日本の広域に及んでおり、若年層に加えて高学歴以外の人々の仕事ほど不安定化していたこと等が明らかとなった。震災時の正社員は離職や休職に追い込まれることは少なかった一方、賃金や労働時間などに影響が及んでいたこと等も確認した。仕事への影響は、津波による死者・行方不明者が生じた被災市町村で顕著にみられたが、原発事故による避難指示区域に指定された市町村で特に大きかった。避難指示区域を含む福島県内の市町村では、震災で離休職に迫られることが多かっただけでなく、離休職後に無職を続ける傾向も強くなっていた。

避難指示区域を含む市町村の無業者ほど特に就業希望が失われている事実はみられなかった一方、求職活動は他に比べて抑制されていた。背景として、震災前に居住していた地域を離れて避難生活を続けていたり、避難後に別地域に転居した人々ほど、就業が困難になっていることの影響が示唆された。

報告者2 Shinpei SANO (Chiba University)

"The Impact of Student Loan Reform on College Enrollment"

Abstract:

This paper examines whether the expansion of applicant eligibility for student loans promotes the college enrollment of high school graduates. Japan Student Services Organization revised the student loan system in 1999, and one of the revisions was the change of eligibility standard based on family income. Before the revision, the requirement income for student loan applicants was higher in the standard level A region than in the level B region (those regions correspond to the first/second level region of the Public Assistance System). After the revision, the eligibility standard in the level B region was adjusted to that of the level A region. This reform makes the exogenous cost reduction of enrollment for high school students who lived in the level B area. We conduct difference-in-differences estimation using municipal data from 1996-2003. Also, we implement triple difference estimation using individual data, because the effect of reform differs by family income within the same region. We find that the expansion of applicant eligibility for student loans improved college enrollment, but the impact becomes limited in just a year after reform.

2014年11月7日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1 Masako OYAMA (Osaka University)

"How does income distribution affect economic growth? Evidence from Japanese prefectural data" PDF

Abstract:

There have been many theoretical and empirical researches on the effects of income distribution on economic growth. This paper uses Japanese prefectural panel data to empirically analyze how income distribution affects economic growth.

Four measures of the income distribution are used in the GMM estimations. The Gini indices, income share of the third quintile and the ratio of the income of the top decile and the 5th decile show that inequality has negative effects on growth. The Gini indices and the ratio of the income of the top and the 5th decile have negative and statistically significant effects. Therefore, the estimation results show that the increased income inequality in recent Japan decreased the economic growth.

報告者2 Steven Stillman (University of Otago)

"The Impact of Early Career Peers and Job Opportunities on Lifetime Success"

Abstract:

We examine the impact of early career peers and job opportunities on the lifetime success of professional American football and basketball players. We exploit the fact that both the NFL and NBA have a multiple round draft each year where all new professionals are allocated to teams based on the reverse order of success of each team in the previous season. This process is used on a round by round basis, hence the last players chosen in a particular round of the draft are generally selected by the teams with the best records in the previous season while those selected at the beginning of the following round end up on the teams with generally the worst records. Hence, the draft system used in both leagues creates a large discontinuity in the quality of the early career peers and job opportunities for players who ex-ante are judged to have nearly identical ability (i.e. are selected in consecutive draft positions). Our preliminary findings suggest that being selected by a lower quality team results in an individual getting better opportunities at the earlier stage of their career. However, controlling for draft position, the quality of the team that drafts an individual has no impact on their lifetime success. It appears that either neither early career peers nor job opportunities matter for lifetime success or that the disadvantage of having bad peers offsets the advantage of having better job opportunities and vice-versa.

2014年10月3日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1 Kazuteru TAKAHASHI (the University of Tokyo)

"Biases in Performance Evaluation" PDF

Abstract:

We develop a theoretical model of subjective performance evaluation where the supervisor may have a taste for favoritism or discrimination and his/her performance is measured based on how close his/her assessment of worker performance is to that of management. We further assume that the precision of information the supervisor acquires depends on his/her characteristics and those of the worker because their memberships in social category presumably affect the size of the supervisor's information network. Using personnel records from a large Japanese manufacturing company, we search for evidence of biases identified in the model. Our findings generally support our theory: (1) female supervisors tend to give more attenuated evaluation grades to male workers than male supervisors; (2) supervisors who have more education than their subordinates tend to give more attenuated evaluation grades than those who have the same education as their subordinates; and (3) the assessment given by a female supervisor is more correlated with the quality of the school that her subordinate graduated from than that given by her male counterpart. Finally, we did not find any evidence of "own-group effect"-tendency that supervisors give more favorable treatment to those in the same social category.

報告者2 佐野洋史 氏 (滋賀大学)

"コンジョイント分析による勤務条件に対する医師の選好の把握" PDF1 PDF2

Abstract:

医師不足の地域や医療機関へ医師の就業を促すためには、様々な勤務条件に対する医師の選好を定量的に把握し、医師が重視する勤務条件を整備することが重要である。その際、日本の医師の労働市場は医局人事等の非市場的な要素を持つため、労働市場が完全競争的であると仮定しない表明選好法による分析が有効である。本研究会では、表明選好法の1つであるコンジョイント分析を用いて、勤務条件に対する病院勤務医と研修医の選好を把握した研究成果について報告する（佐野・石橋 2009; 佐野 2011）。これらの研究では、病院勤務医と研修医は勤務条件の中でも特に、診療について相談・指導できる（同僚）医師の存在を重視していることが明らかとなった。

また、現在、大都市在住の内科系の病院勤務医約700名を対象としたコンジョイント分析を実施しており、その分析結果も併せて報告する。この研究では、大都市からへき地の医療機関に医師が1人で赴任する際に重視する勤務条件を明らかにする。

以上のコンジョイント分析によって把握された勤務条件に対する医師の選好に基づき、地域の医師不足を解消するための有効策を提言する。

2014年9月13日 (土)、14日 (日) 第17回労働経済学コンファレンス

2014年7月4日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1 Hitoshi SHIGEOKA (Simon Fraser University)

"Do Risk Preferences Change? Evidence from Panel Data Before and After the Great East Japan Earthquake" PDF

Abstract:

We investigate whether experiencing a natural disaster―the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011―changes individuals' risk preferences. The novelty of our study is that we use panel of nationally-representative survey, and we can track the change in risk preference of the same individuals before and after the Earthquake. Previous studies use cross-section data collected after the occurrence of negative shocks, and hence can be biased by unobserved individual heterogeneity. We find that people who experienced larger intensity of the Earthquake become more risk tolerant. Interestingly, all the results are driven by men. Further, we find corroborative evidence that men become more engaged in gambling and drinking if they were more exposed to the Earthquake. Finally, we compare the estimates from cross-section and panel specifications, and demonstrate that the estimate relying on cross-section data may be biased.

報告者2 野口晴子 氏 (早稲田大学)

"中高年者の就業と健康―『中高年者縦断調査』による実証結果から―"

Abstract:

本研究では、第1回（2005年）―第6回（2010年）『中高齢者縦断調査』（厚生労働省）の個票を用い、2006年における高齢者雇用安定改正の対象となる1946年4月以降に生まれた者を処置群（treatment）、それ以前に生まれた者を対照群（control）とする操作変数により、中高齢者の就業継続確率が健康に与える効果についての定量分析を行う。

2014年6月6日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1 植松洋史 氏 (総務省統計局)

"雇用統計に関するILO決議の概要及び今後の検討課題"

Abstract:

2013年10月に開催されたＩＬＯ（国際労働機関）主催の会議（第19回国際労働統計家会議）において就業、失業等に関する決議が採択された。この背景としては、国際的に見てパートタイム労働や非正規雇用の増加など、労働市場を取り巻く環境が多様化・複雑化していることから、労働市場に関わる人々をより適切に計測するため、未活用労働の把握が必要となったことが挙げられる。本報告においては、当決議の概要及び我が国において当決議の導入検討を行う上での課題について提示したい。

報告者2 Kazufumi YUGAMI (Kobe University)

"Firm Age and Wage Determination: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data for Japan" PDF

Abstract:

By using a matched employer-employee dataset for Japan, we analyze the relationship between firm age and wages. From the wage equation estimation results, we find that older firms pay higher wages (as previous studies found), but when we control for employee characteristics, the relationship becomes negative. We also find that older firms offer steeper wage-tenure profiles, especially for non-manufacturing industries. These results suggest that skilled workers are systematically sorted into older firms, and differences in firm survival rate or employment stability affect the compensation system of firms.

2014年5月9日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1 Ryosuke NAKAMURA (Hitotsubashi University)

"The Effects of National High School Curriculum Guidelines on Japanese Men's Wages"

Abstract:

In this study, regression discontinuity (RD) design is used to analyze the effects of the national high school curriculum guidelines on wages. The high school curriculum guidelines in Japan are revised uniformly nationwide approximately every ten years and adopted in phases, such that the changes are incorporated only for the incoming freshman class of that year. Thus, students who started high school the year before and the year after a newly adopted curriculum have vastly different curriculum guidelines according to their respective class year. In this study, we employ micro data from the Employment Status Survey to identify the causal effect of the 1982 revision of the national curriculum guidelines that reduced the amount of teaching content on wages. The analysis results indicated that schooling under the 1982 revision of the curriculum guidelines did not necessarily negatively affect wages.

報告者2 Daiji KAWAGUCHI (Hitotsubashi University)

"Does Labor Legislation Benefit Workers?" PDF1 PDF2

Abstract:

We examine changes in life satisfaction of Japanese and Koreans over a period when hours of work were cut because employers faced an overtime penalty that became effective with fewer hours per worker. Using repeated cross sections we show that life satisfaction did not decrease and may have increased in both countries especially among those workers most likely to have been affected by the legislation. There is no evidence of any effect in Korean longitudinal data. In a household model estimated over the Korean cross-section data we find no impact of reductions in one spouse's work hours on the other's well-being.

2014年4月4日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1 Yusuke INOUE (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare)

"Intensive and Extensive Margins of Japanese Male and Female Workers: Evidence from the Tax Policy Reform in Japan" PDF

Abstract:

Using the annual micro panel data of Keio Household Panel Survey, I estimated labor supply models to identify the intensive and extensive margins of Japanese male and female workers for two employment types (Regular and non-regular workers). My empirical results contradict earlier studies which finds large intensive margin of male workers. The findings are while, for all male workers, labor force participation elasticity is quite small (0.0025), the extensive margin of non-regular workers shows big sensitive response (0.365). On the other hand, intensive margins of both types of male workers are small against wage changes (but, insignificant). The investigation by separating age groups (over 55 and under 54) shows that the sensitive labor participation response is caused by elderly non-regular male workers. Furthermore, the comparison between male and female labor supply responses ensure that both margins for men are smaller than those of women as previous literatures show.

報告者2 Akihito TODA (Recruit Works Institute)

"Women's Employment and Life Satisfaction in Japan: The Effects of Working Hours and Employment Status Using Fixed-effects Model" PDF

Abstract:

This paper utilizes fixed-effect model to show relations with regards to how women's levels of life satisfaction vary according to differences in their ways of working; specifically, in terms of working hours and employment status. Results are as follows. First, the level of life satisfaction of 22 through 34 hours and of 49 hours and above (weekly working hours) is lower than other working hours group. Second, life satisfaction of non-regular employees were found to be statistically significantly lower than the non-labor force, but no significant differences were observed between the life satisfaction of regular employees and the non-labor force. Third, while this finding is limited to married women, the longer the husband's working hours, the higher the wife's level of life satisfaction.

2014年3月7日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1 Masaru SASAKI (Osaka University)

"Employment and Hours over the Business Cycle in a Model with Search Frictions"

Abstract:

This paper studies a labor market search model with multi-worker firms to investigate how firms utilize the extensive and intensive margin over the business cycle. The earnings function derived from the Stole-Zwiebel bargaining acts as an adjustment cost function for employment and hours. We calibrate the model to match the Japanese labor market. The model replicates the observed large fluctuations in hours of work.

報告者2 Toshiaki IIZUKA (the University of Tokyo)

"The Impact of Physician Supply on the Healthcare System: Evidence from Japan's New Residency Program"

Abstract:

Using a 2004 Japanese natural experiment affecting physician supply, we study the physician labor market and its effects on hospital competition and health outcomes. Based on panel data covering all physicians in Japan, we find that the introduction of a new residency program -- our natural experiment -- substantially decreased the supply of physicians in some rural markets where local hospitals had relied on university hospitals for filling physician positions. We also find that physician market wages increased in the affected markets, while wages remained unchanged in unaffected markets. Finally, we find that this change in physician market wages forced hospitals to exit affected markets and negatively affected patient' health outcomes in those markets. These effects might have been exacerbated by the fact that the healthcare market was rigidly price-regulated.

2014年2月7日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1 大内伸哉 氏 (神戸大学)

"今後の労働市場法制のあり方について－－有期雇用と解雇を中心として" PDF

報告者2 橋本由紀 氏 (一橋大学)

"女性の配置と賃金・昇進－－人事データを用いた職域分離の検証" PDF

Abstract:

本研究では，製造業企業A社の人事データを用いて，女性従業員の賃金と昇進の規定要因を分析する。A社の男女間賃金差が，職階（ジョブグレード）と労働時間によって説明される部分が大きいことは，Kato et al.(2013)が示しているが，本研究では，A社の女性従業員の賃金が，職階や労働時間等労働者個人に帰する特徴以外の要因，すなわち，配属部署の影響の程度を検討する。所属の固定効果を考慮した推定の結果，A社の女性従業員，特に既婚の大学・大学院卒女性従業員は，男性とは異なる部門で働くことで，やや高い賃金（賃金プレミアム）を得ていたことを見出した。

そして，管理職女性の特徴に関する分析では，個人の属性や経験（学校・学位レベルや転勤経験）と職場環境（研究開発部署，女性管理職存在部署）の両方が，女性の昇進確率を高める効果があることがわかった。より重要なのは後者である。A社では，女性管理職は特定部署に集中し，新たな女性管理職もその中で経路依存的に生まれていた。

2014年1月10日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1 Yukiko ASAI (the University of Tokyo)

"Parental Leave Reforms and the Employment of New Mothers: Quasi-experimental Evidence from Japan"

Abstract:

This study assesses the impact of changes in the parental leave income replacement rate on job continuity of new mothers' after childbearing. The Japanese government increased the parental leave income replacement rate from 0% to 25% in 1995 and from 25% to 40% in 2001, creating two natural experiments. I identify the causal effects of these reforms by comparing the changes in the regular employment of mothers who gave birth after the reforms and those who gave birth before the reforms. My results suggest that the two reforms had no significant effects on the job continuity of mothers who qualified for the reforms.

報告者2 北條雅一 氏 (新潟大学)

"最低賃金の上昇と進学行動" PDF

Abstract:

本稿は、日本の都道府県パネル・データを使用して、近年の最低賃金の上昇が高等学校新卒者の進路決定に及ぼした影響を検証するものである。分析の結果、最低賃金法の改正によって地域別最低賃金が大幅に上昇した都道府県において、女子高校新卒者の大学・短大進学率が高まったことが明らかとなった。また同時期に、中退率および女子の専門学校進学率が低下したことも示された。この結果は、最低賃金の上昇が若年者の就学に負の影響を与えるとする海外の先行研究とは逆の影響を示唆している。一方、男子の進路決定に対する影響は確認されなかった。

2013年12月6日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1 Junya HAMAAKI (Hitotsubashi University)

"The Health Effects on Labor Participation of Japanese Elderly Males"

Abstract:

The main object of this study is to investigate the relationship between individuals' health status and labor participation among middle-aged and elderly males in Japan using a unique panel dataset. Our analysis focuses on three types of health indicators based on respondents' medical history in the three years preceding the survey: (1) the number of illnesses, (2) suffering from a lifestyle disease (high blood pressure, hyperlipidemia, sugar diabetes, and gout), and (3) suffering from at least one of the "three killer diseases" (cancer or malignant growth, heart disease, stroke or cerebrovascular disease). To adjust for the potential endogeneity of these health variables, we use individuals' body mass index at age 30 and their parents' medical history as instrumental variables. Our empirical results show that a deterioration in health increases the probability of not working and being retired and, moreover, tends to decrease individuals’ average working hours per week. Further, splitting our sample, we find that the work status of males aged 60 or over is significantly more likely to be affected by having one additional illness and suffering from a lifestyle disease than that of under 60s.

報告者2 Ryuichi TANAKA (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS))

"School Choices: The Effects of Immigration" PDF

Abstract:

This paper empirically analyzes the effect of immigration on the schooling decisions of native households. An important challenge is that immigration flows tend to coincide with economic booms, which complicates the identification of causal effects. Using data for Spain during the period 2000-2012, we provide instrumental-variable estimates of the effects of household income and the regional foreign-born share on school choices, both in terms of the decision to attend private school (extensive margin) as well as the choice among private schools (intensive margin). Through counterfactual simulations we find that immigration displaced Spanish households away from tuition-free public schools and toward private schools.

2013年11月1日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1 荒木祥太 氏 (一橋大学)

"日米の賃金プロファイルに関する分析－経験年数、勤続年数、転職行動による賃金増加－" PDF

Abstract:

労働者の賃金成長の背景には一般的/企業特殊的人的資本の蓄積ならびに転職によるジョブマッチングの向上という3つの効果があるといわれる。本研究はThe Panel Study of Income Dynamicsと慶応家計パネル調査に基づき、日米労働市場で一般的/企業特殊的人的資本の蓄積と転職によるジョブマッチングの向上が賃金成長に与える影響を推定した。事業所閉鎖や企業倒産という労働者の意思決定にとっては外生的と考えられる転職を用いて3つの効果を分離した。

推定の結果、日本では勤続に伴う賃金上昇が労働市場経験に伴う賃金上昇よりも重要であること、アメリカでは勤続よりも労働市場経験が重要であることが明らかになった。日米の違いは大卒労働者でより顕著である。また、自発的転職による賃金上昇は日本においては観察されないが、アメリカでは2％である。

これらの結果は、日本の労働市場はアメリカの労働市場に比べて摩擦が大きいため、企業内での人的資本蓄積が重要であり、転職を通じた賃金上昇の余地が小さいことを意味している。

報告者2 菅万理 氏 (兵庫県立大学)

"初職が正社員以外であった大卒若年労働者が正社員に移行する関連要因について－インターネット調査とデプスインタビューによる考察－" PDF

Abstract:

本研究は、大卒初職を正社員以外でスタートした25歳から39歳(1996年~2003年までの間に大学を卒業)の男女を対象として2013年2月~3月に実施したインターネット調査「大学のキャンパスライフと卒業後の進路に関するアンケート調査」(有効回答数3,072)(「キャンパスライフと進路調査」)のデータを用い、大卒初職を正社員以外でスタートした若年労働者のその後のキャリア形成について、非正規から正規への移行の関連要因に焦点を当てて分析するものである。「就職氷河期」といわれる1990年代後半に新卒就職した世代が、その後も労働市場において不利な状況に置かれている、いわゆる「世代効果」がこれまでの精緻な分析から明らかになっているが、非正規社員から正社員への移動も一定の割合でおきていることも「就業構造基本調査」などから確認されている。その関連要因について本研究では、小杉(2011)が個人側の要因として位置付けた「就業に関わる価値観」に加え、仕事に直結しないが仕事に関連する能力に関する要素に注目した分析を行った。研究会では、現在の就業状態の関連要因を分析した結果と併せ、10名を対象に実施した「デプスインタビュー」と呼ばれる対面調査から得られた知見の一部も報告する。

2013年10月4日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1 横山泉 氏 (一橋大学)

"Why Do Wages Become More Rigid during a Recession Than during a Boom?" PDF

Abstract:

This paper provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the effect of performance-based layoffs on wage rigidity in the context of performance pay. In the model, it becomes optimal for firms to raise the future regular pay so as to maintain the workers' current efforts, which results in the downwardly rigid regular pay of experienced employees under the threat of performance-based layoffs. Together with the finding that layoffs are more likely to occur during recessions, this result has an implication on the downward rigidity of regular pay during recessions. Furthermore, it becomes optimal for firms to base wages less on workers' performance during recessions due to the lower value of productivity. Thus, bonuses move proportionally to the output price. The results from the Keio Household Panel Survey (KHPS) supported these theoretical implications.

報告者2 大石亜希子 氏 (千葉大学)

"Child Support and the Poverty of Single-mother Households in Japan" PDF

Abstract:

This paper estimates a noncustodial father's ability to pay child support and measures the extent to which the introduction of a child support guideline would have on poverty and welfare benefits of single-mother households in Japan, taking into account possible feedback on the mother's labor supply. It turns out that the father's human capital and the pattern of spousal pairing significantly affect the father's income. Policy simulation predicts that the introduction of the Wisconsin child guideline not only reduces the poverty rate of single-mother households, but also reduces the welfare cost associated with the provision of the Child Rearing Allowance. On the other hand, it is predicted that introducing the time limit to the CRA adversely affects the well-being of the single-mother households, and the decline in income is prominent in lower income quintiles.

2013年9月12日 (木)、13日 (金) 第16回労働経済学コンファレンス

2013年7月5日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1 Takuya HASEBE (The City University of New York)

"Effect of Homeownership on Unemployment Status and Unemployment Duration" PDF

Abstract:

Using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), we examine the relationship between homeownership and unemployment in order to better understand the current U.S. labor market. Our research adds to the previous body of work by controlling for the endogeneity of being a homeowner and the selection into unemployment for the analysis of unemployment duration: we estimate the probabilities of being a homeowner and of being unemployed and the duration of unemployment simultaneously. Our results show that the duration of unemployment is longer for homeowners than renters while homeowners are as likely to be unemployed as renters. We use the data from the year of 2012 for our benchmark analysis, but also extend our work to include the data from the year prior to the financial crisis of 2008. We find that homeowners and renters are adversely affected equally.

報告者2 Hiroaki MORI (University of Western Ontario)

"Health Risks and Labor Force Dynamics of Older Workers"

Abstract:

How do workers respond to health shocks? To answer this question, this paper documents a set of empirical evidences regarding the health effects on labor market outcomes in relation to various decisions workers make in a labor market. The descriptive analysis demonstrates that fulltime workers respond to acute health shocks by taking a short leave from the workplace. The empirical results further suggest that these decisions are affected to a large extent by the statutory sick pay programs and that wage risks associated with abrupt health declines are greatly mitigated by the option to take paid work absences. This paper also finds that the health effects on labor market outcomes greatly differ across workers in different occupations.

報告者3 Yuka UZUKI (National Institute for Educational Policy Research (NIER))

"Changes over Time in the Effects of Childhood Poverty on Earnings in the UK"

Abstract:

This paper analyses how the effects of childhood poverty on earnings changed between those born in 1958 and those born in 1970 in the UK, with a view to examining the validity of the assumptions that politicians and policy-makers tend to make when designing strategies to improve the future life chances of children growing up in poverty. The analysis reveals that the negative impact of childhood poverty on these individuals' hourly earnings in their early thirties has increased between the two birth cohorts. For the younger cohort who grew up against the background of increasing income inequality (although not for the older cohort), the effect of childhood poverty remains, even after controlling for educational attainment, in particular, and other observed variables such as ability, parental social class and education. This suggests that additional investment in formal education targeted at poor children should not be a complete alternative to furthering the income redistribution needed to alleviate child poverty. It is also noteworthy that poverty in late childhood has an independent negative impact on later outcomes for the younger cohort, against the context in which early investment is increasingly stressed and prioritised.

2013年6月7日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1 Meng Zhao (the University of Tokyo)

"Retiring for Better Health? Evidence from Health Investment Behaviors in Japan" PDF

Abstract:

The economic literature argues that increasing pension eligibility ages may not restore the financial viability of a social security system if it negatively affects the health outcomes of the affected population. This paper analyzes recent longitudinal data from four waves of Health and Retirement Survey in Japan and examines the causal effects of retirement on three types of health investment behaviors: smoking, drinking and exercising. We employ two econometric methods to distinguish the impacts of two types of retirement: (i) a fuzzy regression-discontinuity (RD) design for the effects of retirement from permanent employment (RPE); and (ii) an instrumental variable (IV) approach that exploits exogenous variation in Japan's national pensionable ages for the effects of complete retirement (CR). Our results indicate that individuals increase participation into regular exercising and drinking, yet reduce smoking intensity significantly after retirement. The effects are stronger for CR than for RPE. We also find the differential effects of retirement by gender.

報告者2 Tomoharu MORI (Osaka University / JSPS Research Fellow)

"The Hidden Costs of Control in the Field" PDF

Abstract:

We investigate the effect of minimum production quota on workers' static and dynamic effort provision using three real-effort field experiments with simple tasks in Japan and Thailand. Subjects are paid fixed wage and are not given any incentives to exert more than minimal effort. We found that when the employer imposed minimum production goal on the workers, their productivity is lower than the workers who are free to choose their own production level. Workers who are not given the production quota tend to work at a stable pace throughout the experiment, while workers who are given a production quota tend to shirk once the quota is reached. Workers perceive production quota as their employers' expectation of them, and will stop producing when goal is reached. Inappropriate level of production quota may lead to motivation crowding out.

2013年5月10日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1 Akira NAGAE (Waseda University)

"Statistical Discrimination and Disability"

報告者2 Shintaro YAMAGUCHI (McMaster University)

"Dynamic Effects of Parental Leave Policies on Mothers' Labor Market Outcomes"

2013年4月5日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学 社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1 Makiko NAKAMURO (Keio University)

"Are Television and Video Games Really Harmful for Kids? Empirical Evidence from the Longitudinal Survey of Babies in the 21st Century" PDF

Abstract:

Are watching television and playing video games really harmful for children’s developments? This is very intriguing question for both parents and policy circles, measuring the rigorous effects are difficult due to data and methodological limitations though. By exploiting a unique longitudinal dataset with detailed information on children’s developments and health, we examine the effect of hours of television watched or of video games played on school-aged children’s problem behavior, positive orientation to school and obesity. The results drawn from the fixed-and random effects models while controlling for the time-invariant unobserved omitted variables in this paper suggest that the answer of the question is yes and the negative effect would be dramatically escalated by the excessive amount of exposure to television or video games. However, the magnitude of the effect is small enough to be negligible. The results are robust to within-twin fixed effects.

"The Effects of Birth Weights: Does Fetal Origin Really Matter for Adult Outcomes?" PDF

Abstract:

This paper investigates whether birth weight itself causes individuals' future life chances. By using a sample of twins in Japan and controlling for the potential effects of genes and family backgrounds, we examine the effect of birth weight on later educational and economic outcomes. The most important finding is that birth weight has a causal effect on academic achievement at the age of around 15, and thereby indirectly affecting highest years of schooling and earnings.

報告者2 Mayu FUJII (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)

"Early Job Separation in Japan: The Determinants and the Effects on Life Outcomes" PDF

Abstract:

Using the panel data from the 2011 Japanese Longitudinal Survey on Employment and Fertility (LOSEF) and focusing on males who obtained regular employment as new graduates, this study aimed to investigate two issues: (i) what factors affect separation from the first job within five years; and (ii) whether early separation from the first job has an impact on later economic and demographic outcomes. The main results can be summarized as follows. First, consistent with the finding of Genda and Kurosawa (2001), individuals who searched for a job during a recession are more likely to separate from the first job within five years. Second, obtaining a job at a large firm with high payment or having higher non-cognitive skills reduces the probability of early job separation. Third, while there are large differences in early job separation rates by cohort, these differences seem to come from the differences between the cohorts in macroeconomic conditions at the time of searching for the first job and the probability of being able to obtain the first job at a large firm. Finally, early job separation seems to have negative effects on various economic and demographic outcomes in the future especially when the separation led to a loss of regular employment. These effects of early job separation, however, must be interpreted with caution given the weakness of our identification strategy.

2013年3月1日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 日本女子大学 新泉山館 2F 会議室1

報告者1 川上淳之 氏 (学習院大学)

"副業は本業の業務に影響を与えるか？" PDF

Abstract:

2007年に実施されたインターネット調査「副業者の就労に関する調査」を用いて、正社員の副業保有に与える要因と、副業が本業に与える影響を分析した。まず、副業を希望する理由別に、就業規定が副業就業を妨げる要因となっているかを、「副業非希望」「副業希望」「副業就業」の３つの選択を被説明変数とした多項プロビット・モデルによる推定を行い、大企業で副業を禁止する就業規定を定めている傾向があること、就業規定が、正社員の副業選択に与える影響が大きいことを明らかにした。この結果を受けて、副業の就業が実際に業務に支障をきたしているかをみるため、傾向スコア・マッチングの手法を用いて、副業の就業によって本業の賃金率に差が生じるかを比較検討した。副業就業者と副業非希望者との間では、副業就業者の方が賃金率が低いことが示されたが、副業就業者と副業希望者の比較からは、副業を就業しても、必ずしも本業の賃金率が低いという傾向はみられなかった。また、限定的ではあるが、「様々な分野の人とつながりができるから」という動機で本業と関連のある副業をもつ場合には、本業の賃金率は高まるという推定結果も得られた。

報告者2 阿部正浩 氏 (獨協大学)

"改正パートタイム労働法は教育訓練受講を増やしたのか" PDF

Abstract:

2008年に改正されたパートタイム労働法は一部のパート労働者の教育訓練を企業に義務化させたが、実際にパートタイマーの訓練受講が増えているかどうかを検証しようと試みた。

2013年2月1日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1 Shun-ichiro BESSHO (Keio University)

"Intensive Margin, Extensive Margin, and Allowance for Spouses: A Discrete Choice Analysis" PDF

Abstract:

This paper investigate the effects on married women's labor supply of Japanese tax reform, abolishment of allowances for spouses, based on a micro-simulation method. To do so, we estimate a structural discrete choice household labor supply model. We take into account husband's response and the extensive margin of labor supply, assuming fixed cost of working and a unitary household model. Our estimates of the average own intensive elasticity are 0.032 for husbands and 0.031 for wives, while that on the extensive margin is 0.009 for husbands and 0.055 for wives.

Our simulations show that the complete abolishment of allowances for spouses increase by 1.62% the average working hours of wives, consistent with the previous papers, which ignore the extensive margin and find the positive effects on labor supply of such abolishment.

報告者2 Keisuke KAWATA (Hiroshima University)

"Protectionism and Employment Promotion Policy: The Role of International Policy Agreements" PDF

Abstract:

This study analyzes the determinants of protectionism and employment promotion policy in a small open economy with search friction.

In this environment, the unemployment rate depends on both tariff and hiring subsidies. By raising the domestic price of a good or the level of employment subsidies, a government may attract more jobs in particular industry. This leads to low unemployment rate in this sector, and in turn, will benefit from the matching rents. However, these policies have negative externalities on other countries through the international price of the good. Thus, hiring subsidies and importing tax are too high, and then the unilaterally optimal policy choices of each governments do not maximize the world welfare. Finally, I analyze the roll of trade agreements and find that even if countries can engage in full international agreements, not only positive subsidies but also importing tax should be positive. Moreover, if these countries can engage in only importing tax agreements, the optimal level of importing tax is higher than 1st best level to reduce hiring subsidies.

2013年1月18日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1 Nobuko NAGASE (Ochanomizu University)

"Fertility Timing, Wages and Family Friendly Firm Policies in Japan"

Abstract:

The fertility rate has been on a long term decline in Japan. The total fertility rate dropped below 1.6 for the first time in 1990, and continued to decline to hit the low of 1.26 in 2005 followed by a small upturn to mark 1.39 as of 2011. The Japanese Government, stating the birth rate to be too low for the nation in 2001, accelerated different measures to counter declining birthrate, such as the enhancement in the child care leave and child care leave allowances, the adoption of work and life balance charters, and making mandates to the local entities and large firms to take measures to support child rearing.

Work continuation for first time mothers is important in Japan if mothers sought for adequate earnings for their future. It is known that a port of entry to good job is the widest at school graduation in Japan. Therefore, if the females quit their regular job that they got before marriage, they may well end up in low wage precarious jobs should they try to re-enter the work force.

The MHLW strongly sought firms to provide lawful child care leave provisions. With their efforts, MHLW surveys showed that ratio of firms that provided child care leave provisions increased substantially from the late 1990's. Today the workplace provides leave provisions to about 80 percent of women who are entitled. By the law, most of the regularly employed workers are entitled, while the entitlement is limited for termed employees.

Prior empirical works by Higuchi(1994), Morita and Kaneko(1998), Shigeno and Ohkusa(1998), Higuchi and Abe(1999), Suruga and Cho(2003), Nagase(2003), and Takeishi(2011) repeatedly showed that women working at firms with child care leave provision significantly continued their work upon childbirth. Therefore, the increase in child care leave provision should have increased women's work continuation at child birth.

Nevertheless, it is a puzzle that women's work continuation has not increased for the whole population for the past years, even after the series of enhancement of the child care leave and other measures. Studies showed that despite the implementation of child care leave, no increase in the work continuation of first time mothers with young children was evident (Imada(1996), Shintani(1998), Nagase(1999), Iwsawa(2004), Nagase and Moriizumi(2011)). In 2011, the newest Fertility Survey was released, again to find no significant increase in the percentage of mothers who continued work upon childbirth. More women were found to work after marriage, and children that were cared under child care leave increased from 6 percent in 1985-89 to 17 percent in 2005-2009. However, the ratio of women who continued their job upon childbirth was 24 percent in 1985-89, and 27 percent in 2005-2009, showing small if any rise in the twenty years.

The purpose of this study is to consider the effect of Japanese employment practices and the child care leave policies of the government on women's work choice and fertility timing choice using a national survey that has unique retrospective questioning on the work traits of women at school graduation, at when considering marriage, at one year prior to childbirth, and at one year after the childbirth. We also have replies on the fianc? of husbands' work trait and their values.

Our result is still preliminary, but so far, we found that child care leave and other family friendly provisions accelerated birth only for those samples who successfully continued work after childbirth. When the total population, including those who are not married, or those who are childless is included, the child care leave provisions and family friendly policies of firms rather significantly delayed marriage and birth timing.

This strange result, at least at a first glance, can be interpreted combining the results of our qualitative surveys. We made 14 focus groups in 2008 and 65 interviews in 2009 to 2010 on working females in their twenties to forties. In our qualitative survey, very few females stated that they feel they can combine work and family. Many said there are contemplating whether if combining work and family is possible, or whether if they should quit work. They said they are delaying their decision to have a child because they are not sure(see Yamaya(2010)). Most of them replied that there are more females combining work and family at their work places, but only with much difficulties and sacrifices either on their part or on their colleagues.

Therefore, the rather strange results can be interpreted from the hypothesis that provision of child care leave and other family friendly measures increase the likelihood that women might combine work and family, yet the realization possibilities are still very small. Women with higher probabilities of combining work and family are seeking to find the better timing for child rearing and delay family formation, while other women who see no chances may instantly quit work and form a family. If such mechanism is at work, we may find the result that delays in childbirth is found for those with better provisions at firms.

My anticipation is that when combining work and family become easier, the increases in the provision of combining work and family will. statistically significantly increase the women's work participation.

報告者2 高原正之 氏 (連合総研)

"女性就業の第二局面における世代効果"

Abstract:

日本の女性の就業は年齢とともに変化する。学校卒業時点では多くの者が職に就き、この時点で女性の無業率は最も低い。学校卒業の直後は、常勤職が多く、パートや無業は少ない。その後、結婚や出産、子育ての時期を迎えると、常勤が減り、パートや無業が増加していく。この労働力市場からの退出がすすみ、無業率の上昇する局面を女性就業の第一の局面と呼ぶことにする。その後、結婚や出産の時期を過ぎ、子供も大きくなると、常勤はあまり増えないものの、パートが増加し、無業率は減少していく。しかし、労働市場に参加しないものも多く、この局面でのボトムにおいても学校卒業直後の水準まで無業率が下がることはない。この結婚、出産後の労働市場への再参入過程を女性就業の第二局面と呼ぶことにする。そして最後に高齢期に向かって、労働市場からのリタイアが始まり、無業率が増加していき、最終的には労働市場からリタイアする。この引退過程を第三局面と名付けよう。

これまでの女性の就業に関する世代効果の研究は、もっぱら第一の局面を扱ってきた。この第二の局面の無業率に、結婚、出産が終わる時期の労働市場の状況が影響を与えているか、つまり世代効果が働いているかを実証的に検討した。

データとして、家計経済研究所の『消費生活に関するパネル調査』（JPSC）のコーホートA（対象期間は、1993年から2008年まで）と総務省統計局の「労働力調査」を用いて、プロビットモデルにより推定を行った結果、世代効果が存在し、その効果は5年程度で減衰しているという仮説は棄却されなかった。

この結果は、日本の労働市場の特殊性、サーチ理論、人的資本理論から説明することができ、日本の結婚、出産期を過ぎた女性の労働市場には、何らかの非効率性が存在している可能性があることを示唆している。

2012年12月7日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学社会科学研究所 1F 第一会議室

報告者1 Hiroshi ONO (Texas A&M)

"Welfare States and the Redistribution of Happiness" PDF

Abstract:

We use data from the 2002 International Social Survey Programme, with roughly 42,000 individuals nested within 29 countries, to examine the determinants of happiness in a comparative perspective. We hypothesize that welfare states redistribute happiness among policy-targeted demographic groups in these countries. The redistributive properties of the welfare states generate an alternate form of “happiness inequality” in which winners and losers are defined by marital status and income. We apply multi-level modeling and focus on public social expenditures (as percentage of GDP) as proxy measures of state intervention at the macro-level, and happiness as the specific measure of welfare outcome at the micro-level.

We find that aggregate happiness is not greater in the welfare states, but happiness closely reflects the redistribution of resources in these countries. Happiness is “transferred” from low-risk to high-risk individuals. For example, women with small children are significantly happier, but single persons are significantly less happy in the welfare states. This suggests that pro-family ideology of the welfare states protects families from social risk and improves their well-being at the cost of single persons. Further, we find that the happiness gap between high versus low-income earners is considerably smaller in the welfare states, suggesting that happiness is transferred from the privileged to the less privilege.

報告者2 萩原里紗 (慶応大学大学院商学研究科博士課程)

"学歴、経験が既婚女性の将来を見越した就業選択に与える影響の考察" PDF

Abstract:

1985年に制定された男女雇用機会均等法や1991年に制定された育児休業法は女性の就業を取り巻く環境を大きく変化させ、同時に女性の高学歴化も進んでいる。就業を選択したときに得られる賃金は学歴に大きく依存していると考えられ、女性の就業決定に影響を与える重要な要因である。同時に、就業を選択したことによる経験の蓄積（人的資本の形成）は将来獲得できる賃金に影響を与え、女性はそのことも見据えて現在就業するかどうかを決定していると考えられる。また、女性の就業については出産、育児が大きな影響を与えるが、出産の意思決定についても学歴の影響があるかもしれない。既婚女性の就業に対して影響を与えるもう一つの重要な変数である夫の所得についても、妻の学歴が影響を与えている可能性がある。さらに、学歴は女性の能力だけでなく嗜好や価値観を反映している可能性があり、労働の不効用の程度に直接的な影響を与えているかもしれない。

女性の就業に対して学歴がどのような影響を与えるのかという点について、先行研究では多様な結果が得られている。その理由の一つは、学歴が女性の就業に与えるさまざまな影響が混在しているためであると考えられる。本稿では、効用関数や収入関数のパラメターを直接推定することを通して、さまざまな効果を識別することを試みる。就業選択による経験の蓄積が将来稼得可能な収入に影響を与える効果、および出産の選択が将来の子どもの存在につながる効果を明示的に考慮するため、動学的な最適化を基礎とするモデルを採用する。

動学的な離散選択モデルを用いた構造パラメターの推定結果から、以下のような点が明らかになった。１）正規雇用でも非正規雇用でも労働の不効用は確認されるが、正規雇用より非正規雇用の方が不効用は大きい。正規雇用と非正規雇用では学歴の効果も異なる。２）就業経験の増加は正規雇用の場合に労働の不効用を低下させている可能性がある。３）正規雇用では学歴が高くなるにつれて労働の不効用は低下する。一方、非正規雇用では学歴が高くなるにつれて労働の不効用は増加する。４）上記の結果は、就業経験や学歴が所得を通じて効用に与える影響よりも、就業を選択したときに就業経験や学歴が効用に直接与える影響の方が大きいことを反映している。５）3歳以下の子どもの存在は労働の不効用を増加させるが、出産自体への影響はプラスである。

2012年11月2日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1 Ayako KONDO (Hosei Univerisity)

"The Effects of Elderly Employment Stabilization Law"

Abstract:

Given the fast aging population and resulting pressure on the social security system, the government of Japan has been trying to ensure that older people can continue to work longer. One of such attempts is the revision of the Elderly Employment Stabilization Law. Starting from 2006, employers are legally obliged to introduce a system to continue employment up to the pension eligibility age. This paper examines the effect of this legal enforcement on old men’s labor supply and employment status, by comparing the affected cohorts and cohorts a few years older than the affected cohorts. We find that the revision actually increased the employment rate of men in the affected cohorts in their early 60s. At the same time, increase in non-regular employment comprise of substantial fraction of this increased employment, suggesting that productivity of those workers is lower than prevailing wages of regular employees of their age.

報告者2 Drew Griffen (the University of Tokyo)

"Evaluating the Effects of Child Care Policies on Children's Cognitive Development and Maternal Labor Supply" PDF

Abstract:

To explore the role of child care policies in the development of early cognitive skills, I embed a value-added cognitive achievement production function into a dynamic, discrete choice model of maternal labor supply and child care decisions. I use the model to explore how two types of child care policies, Head Start and child care price subsidies, affect child care use and quality decisions and how those decisions in turn affect cognitive achievement. To estimate the model, I use rich panel data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Survey - Birth cohort (ECLS-B). There are three key findings: (1) Expanding Head Start to children who are currently not eligible has beneficial effects on cognitive achievement, because even children from relatively high quality home environments spend significant amounts of time in low quality child care. An expansion of Head Start to be a universal program increases average cognitive achievement scores by 0.15 standard deviations at kindergarten entry. (2) I find that for the typical subsidy-eligible population, child care subsidies have small positive effects on cognitive skills by inducing families to move children from low quality home environments to relatively higher quality child care environments. Six months of exposure to a subsidy program increases cognitive achievement scores by .036 standard deviations on average. (3) Without Head Start the black-white achievement gap at kindergarten entry increases by 9 percent and child care subsidies decrease the black-white achievement gap at kindergarten entry by 3 percent.

2012年10月5日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 東京大学社会科学研究所 赤門総合研究棟 5F センター会議室

報告者1 Dainn Wie (GRIPS)

"Between Calm and Passion: Cooling-Off Period and the Divorce Decision" PDF

Abstract:

Behavioral economics proposes that cooling-off period can address decision-making errors caused by projection bias. Benefited by unique natural experiment of Korea, we measure and evaluate the effect of divorce waiting period on divorce outcomes. Using jurisdiction-level panel data, we find evidence of projection bias and the effect of cooling-off period on divorce decisions. Specifically, DD (difference-in-differences) estimates show increase in filing cancellation and reduction in finalized divorce rates without any effect on initial divorce filing rates. Our estimates suggest that waiting period decreases approximately 9% of finalized divorce and the effect is consistent over the long-run. ?We also show that there is no differential effect of divorce waiting period across couples with different bargaining power. We suggest that a "cooling-off" policy can contribute to reducing the incidence of sub-optimal decisions caused by projection bias.

報告者2 Kazuteru TAKAHASHI (Gradate School of Economics, the University of Tokyo)

"Internet Use by Non-Employed People and its effect" PDF

Abstract:

In this study, we examined the effect of Internet Use on the activities which include the activity toward work (or wish to work), by using anonymous data from The Survey on Time Use and Leisure Activities (2006). About 60% of non-employed people who are unmarried, between the ages of 20 and 59 years, and not in school used internet in the past 12 months. We observed that the non-employed people who are younger, highly-educated, living in three major metropolitan areas, living by oneself tend to use internet. But we didn’t observe that the non-employed people from higher-income household tend to use internet. It can be considered that internet use encourages both the attitude toward work, and the expansion of the time use for leisure. Although the internet use has a positive effect on the frequency of TV-game use, internet use has negative effects on the time use for leisure and sleep. If anything, internet use encourages the social interactions such as sports, volunteer activity, and travel. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that internet use encourages the job search activities, the wish to work, and the study to gain employment. Especially, e-mail use has an important role for attitude toward work. We found that the personal network through internet encourages the attitude toward work. These findings suggest that the improvement of internet environment may encourage the wish for work of non-employed people.

2012年9月16日 (日)、17日 (月祝) 第15回労働経済学コンファレンス

2012年7月13日 (金) 15:00 ~ 18:00 アジア学生文化会館

報告者1 Ryo KAMBAYASHI (Institute of Economic Research of Hitotsubashi University)

"Wage Inequality in Japan Revisited,"

Abstract:

A controversy about the Japanese inequality had been launched by labor economists around 2000, and it is well documented that the increase in income inequality during the 1980s and the 1990s came not from the change in the distributional mechanism of Japanese economy but mainly from the compositional shifts of population. The interesting point is that the public argument about inequality continued as a political debate, even after the conclusion in the academic arena. At last, the debate affected the political movement in the 2009 general election that resulted in pushing the Liberal-Democratic Party aside from the government for the first time since 1955. It seems to be contradicting that a statistically artificial phenomena motivated such a substantial regime change. We, then, re-examine in this article the transition of wage distribution by using the large sample microdata of Basic Survey on Wage Structure between 1991 and 2010. The first contribution of this article is to empirically reveal that the transition of wage inequality during 2000s was driven by the expanding disparity between establishments especially due to unobservabale factors. This means that the wage inequality increased between establishments which has the same size and which belongs to the same industry and location. Although total wage differentials shrunk because of the compression among ages as well as between genders, the widening within-group disparity by unobservable factors may have appealed the people. The second contribution of this article is to show the advantage and disadvantage of BSWS as the data set to examine the wage inequality in Japan. BSWS has good characteristics to examine wage distribution such as a large sample size and the accuracy of data. However, recently it is challenged to have biases toward the regular workers in addition to uncovering under-five establishments. In this article, we compare BSWS to other governmental surveys such as Monthly Labor Survey and Employment Status Survey, and clarify the advantages and disadvantages of BSWS to examine the tail of wage distribution.

報告者2 小林徹 (慶応大学大学院商学研究科博士課程)

「ジョブマッチングの成立要因－－民営職業紹介会社の業務データによるパネル分析」 PDF

Abstract:

本稿では求職者と求人とのマッチングの成立要因を明らかにするために、民間人材紹介会社の業務データをもとに、求人への応募、応募後の書類選考通過、1 次面接通過、最終的な採用決定の各段階に分けて、それら結果の要因を分析した。その結果、以下５つ点が確認できた。第一に、求職者は、年収が高い、東証一部上場、メーカーなどの求人へ応募をしやすい傾向にあり、求人の直接的な条件面で判断している様子が見られたこと。第二に、求人企業の産業や募集職種と、応募者の経験産業や職種とが一致しているかどうかという条件は、営業職で特に重要であった。営業職では募集職種と経験職種が一致しているということが、応募率も高め、すべての選考段階の通過率も高めていた。第三に、面接だけではなく書類選考の段階でも求職者の性格面の特徴が、選考結果に影響していること。また書類選考では、営業担当の手助けも通過率を後押ししていたこと。第四に、改正雇用対策法の例外事由に関わると考えられる推奨年齢以内であることは応募後のすべての段階で通過率を高めているだけでなく、求職者の応募も促進しており、求人・求職者双方にとって有益な情報となっていたこと。第五には、前職の年収よりも求人の想定年収が高いほど応募が促進されるが、そのような場合ほど企業の選抜に通過する確率が低くなることが分かった。これら結果より、求職者の応募段階と求人企業の選抜段階では異なる要因も多く、かつ選抜段階の中でも書類選考段階と面接段階とでも異なる面があることが分った。マッチング効率を高めるためには、応募促進、書類選考・面接における通過促進と、それぞれに異なる策が必要であると考えられる。具体的には、応募促進に関して述べると、営業職以外については産業・職種転換そのものよりもむしろ賃金が大きな壁となるため、産業や職種転換を伴うマッチングを進めるには転換に伴う所得減少分を補う必要があるのではないか。また書類選考段階では、より良い履歴書や職務経歴書を作成する為のマッチング担当者の情報伝達や指導が重要である。そこではマッチング担当者と求人企業との密な関係構築にむけた長期的な担当配置や指導の場を確保することが求められる。さらに面接段階では、面接段階のみで管理職求人と経験の一致が有意に通過率を高めていたように、面接段階では書類では書ききれない複雑な情報のやり取りが行われている可能性がある。求職者に対しては、仕事の紹介担当者だけでなく求人情報をより把握している求人開拓担当者との面談や事前の面接指導が重要になってくるのではないかと予想される。