3.2. What can we know about the future of life?

When we look at events that occur in very complex systems, that involve a large number of variables, it might be difficult to make detailed predictions in the short run. But some very complex and unpredictable systems have long term tendencies, in this cases, when we look at longer temporal scales we can make general predictions that seem quite unavoidable, given sufficient time. For instance we cannot predict in what century or millennium a meteor will collide with our planet, but we can predict that in the next 100 million years at least one large meteor will head straight for earth. Of course these are just statistical predictions but they create a clear picture of the "natural" evolution of the planet and our role in it. The same happens with species of animals, it would be practically impossible for some intelligent being looking at our planet six hundred million years ago to predict that elephants, for instance, would come to exist. However, it would be relatively simply to predict that some form of life would emerge, that it would take advantage of the solar energy, that it would eventually take many forms and invade the sea, earth and skies of the earth. He would also easily predict that some of these forms of life would eat each other, taking advantage of the solar power conserved in the organic bodies, and keeping an equilibrium so that if any species grew in large numbers, the predators or parasites of that species would quickly grow too, rebalancing the entire ecosystem. Finally, being an intelligent being, he could also predict that somehow, sometime, somewhere, civilizational species would also emerge that would bring earth's life into other planets and solar systems. Being only in the very beginning of civilization we cannot advance much to this picture for if we could imagine what was to come we would be more advanced than we are now, however, there are some things which look rather obvious, and we will try to develop a little those tentative ideas. The most obvious of these ideas is that the past trend of expansion and diversification should not stop given that we (living beings) still have some billions of years of sunlight to spend.

In this perspective life evolves in a kind of Brownian motion, that is, the general direction is expansion, diversification and reintegration (as long as conditions remain ideal for life expansion - like the earth-sun distance, etc). But for shorter time-scales it seems almost impossible to predict whether the next movement will be of expansion or not. So it would seem clear that life in our planet is going into a general direction although in the short run it would be very difficult to make predictions. But the long run landscape seems obvious, and it shows how mankind is just another little step in the gargantuan stairwell of evolution, it is easy to see that we are like the first plant to make photosynthesis, or the first herbivore, or the first carnivore. We are indeed exploring an hitherto unexplored possibility: we feed on ideas - ways of interacting or dealing with some aspect of the world. So to us we must seem very bright, and to have a fabulous future ahead. The first photosynthetic plants revolutionized earth in a short amount of time (less than a million years), the same with herbivores, and the same should happen with civilizational beings in a similar timescale. Tapping into an unexplored resource gives ample ground for a very rapid growth (hundreds of thousands of years). But this rapid growth seems to be just a passing moment of evolution, nothing guarantees that it will continue for long or that it will not be followed by a period of contraction. When the first photosynthetic cells emerged they had yet no predators, parasites nor did they lack places to grow. But all that changed after some incredible long period of time. I can't see any reason why the same should not happen to us. First of all we are a fighting species, we grew up in a battleground, fighting for our survival, we retain much of our fighting, aggressive, outlook. We might end up killing large numbers of our own species, in fact, it does not seem that hard to imagine that we might lead our own species to extinction. But even if we don't, sooner or later man will give rise to more diversified beings. Perhaps they will be biologically similar, although that looks implausible, but even if they are their way of living will explore different possibilities, values, myths. If there are so many possibilities of dealing with reality why would only a few be pursued? Just like there are many ways that animals can be build, and many of these possibilities were given life. So with us the same should happen, on the mental scale, with physical implants, with marriages between body and machine, brains and computers, etc. Some of us may turn out to refuse all kind of technology, while others happily will trade their brain for a computerized alternative with a much longer life-span. We are just one more step in the society of civilizational beings that lies ahead. This is my central idea. We are not special, except in one way: each of us is unique, just as any duck, horse, penguin, etc. We are all very precious. But to those that think that nature is just something to be used, then we, being just another part of nature, must also be something to be used. Our dignity, sanctity, rises or falls along the dignity and sanctity that we attribute to nature, this is the central idea that I am pursuing here.